I'm encouraged to see Ukraine soften on negotiation as the only route out of this avoiding a total annexation of the country. They've put up a brave fight but reality is dawning quickly now and if they don't want to end up in a catastrophic situation they need to go for the only way out available. They want to preserve as much territorial integrity as possible - going in to negotiations with a capable standing army is far preferable to the alternative with Russia on the offensive. I'd confidently predict no negotiation at that point.
Bakhmut .. Southern flank ,, 09.06
In a matter of hours, the 57th Motorized Rifle Brigade lost a section 1200 m wide and up to 180 m deep.
To Andreevka no more than 3.5 km.
anxious
Our source in the OP said that Zaluzhny refused to launch a counteroffensive without F-16s and long-range missiles, but the Office of the President decided not to wait for the decision of the Commander-in-Chief and held a bid, which identified three main commanders:
Alexander Syrsky - commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, commander of the operational-strategic grouping of troops "Khortitsa".
Oleksandr Komarenko - Head of the Operational Directorate of the Headquarters of the Command of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Alexander Tarnavsky - commander of the operational-strategic grouping of troops "Tavria".
The counteroffensive is commanded by Syrsky, who lost Bakhmut a month ago and takes Kleshcheevka by storm for 4 weeks.
I wonder is there something to this. Zaluzhny has definitely taken a step back in the last month.
I wonder if their isr gear can pick up a ducking and diving ka52 from high above , and send info down to something like a stormer or avenger ,
And we don't necessarily believe all that we see in videos, from either side, do we?
Not related, German news outlets reporting that this was a fire on a construction site in Hamburg’s “Docklands”, the HafenCity. Fire has since been put out and all reports indicate a simple accident.
Wooden Leopard
Could be sabotage. I can't verify it but I posted it because people can be on the lookout for developments if they like.
So why not verify before posting some random fire
The difference between what Ukraine is mobilizing and training and what Putin is mobilizing and training is huge. From day one Putin's un- willing conscripts are treated abominably, and that's saying something!! Even Prigozhin speaks about the Russian military as being unfit for purpose. Conscripts get 2 mth's basic training, ( if that) then off to war with them. Poorly equipped with weapons, supplies or even with medicine, many of these things their own Families have to buy for them with their own money. So no, its no quite the same as saying thet are all the same as being one on one. Then they are pitted against men who are literally fighting for the lives of their very families and home land. While Russians are fighting for a madman's dream, and unwillingly at that. Maybe 2/3 + Russian troops to one Ukrainian in terms of quality and motivation? Prigozhin also said that many more Russians were needed, but this should have been done 5 or 6 mth's ago, and now it may well be too late.
...
Firebombing cities was acceptable in WW2. Sentiments evolve
Small cheap fixed wing surveillance drone
I think that within a week, or 10 days, the Ukrainians will know whether to push on or hold the lines. Lots of armor, on both sides, burning. Impossible to tell who's winning.
This is true but the Russian's unfortunately have what 4 times the population? If they are losing men at a reported 2:1 ratio it doesn't take a genius to figure out who will have the more manpower the longer this drags on.
Holy sh it, that's a hard watch.
It has gotten so bad that a few weeks ago, Putin signed a new law into force that means now, all eligible Russians will receive notification to report to the nearest mobilization centre for registration, only now it will all be done by email, so no more "I did not receive the official summons" excuse. Failure to attend the centre within 10 days will mean that a 2nd email will be sent, and this will be considered final and binding, No excuses, and failure to attend after receiving this email will mean that basically you will become a non-citizen. You cannot present to any state institution's, hospital's, bank's etc. You can be arrested at any border. You are basically black listed. And this applies to Russian's who have left the jurisdiction as well. Now, on top of everything else, they are thinking about making a 6 day working week mandatory,,,with out any extra pay. Stalin MK 2 is now back in the Kremlin, and its becoming more and more obvious every passing day.
Simple but very effective.
Just wait for UAF to launch, have the K-52 there in minutes and just pick them off one by one.
Yeah nice. It's important to keep remembering we really just don't know the full picture. Because the Ukrainians aren't by and large posting their successes and Russian bloggers aren't going to post videos of bundles of their men fleeing like rats across open fields.
It's tough to sit here and see destroyed bradleys/Leopards and some poor coordination on tank movements. Even I've been a bit despondant at times. But we aren't seeing the good they're doing. For all we know these things could be murdering scores of infantry and dozens of tanks or capturing important positions before they take a hit. The true result of the offensive isn't going to be known for weeks or possibly months. So relax for now.
That lead Bradley was knocked out whilst stationary, whatever was going on. The vehicle should not be driven at more than about 5km/h with the launcher elevated.
They are both facing manpower problems.
Russians running away
Sending armoured formations into a modern battleground without any proper air cover is madness, it's another example of the western allies only allowing Ukraine to fight back with a hand tied behind it's back.
Attack helicopters & combat aircraft in sufficient numbers are badly needed by Ukraine to liberate it's national territory.
They should have been supplied by end of last year, even a total layman like myself will realise that sufficient air cover is vital.
Anyone suggesting but Putin, nukes / da bomb, peace talks, Ukraine are nazis, Ukrainians are Russians can go feck themselves.
Just give Ukraine the required military equipment to win this war.
Ukraine lacks a critical resource- manpower “ How do people post such rubbish. It is Russia that has the man power problems.
Ironically,after being written off , that ka52 engagement is a model of how attack helicopters are supposed to work ,
Hiding behind terrain to pick off fast moving armour from a distance , while staying behind enemy lines away from manpads and mobile sams ..
Wether the ukrainians can alter tactics to deal with this , obviously some form of top cover would help , but thats probably out ,
Probably almost out of quadcopter drone range so they cant really swamp an area with drones to spot and attack ,
CLOSE THE SKIES.
For now, everything has to be taken with a grain of salt but armor losses are to be expected when Ukraine are on the offensive.
Also, I think it's worth bearing in mind that while the UAF's recent volunteers and reservics call ups may have received NATO level training, an awful lot of them are still going to be very green. There will be tactical mistakes made in the field and, sadly, lives and materiel lost as a result of those mistakes. It takes combat time for a battalion of soldiers to become battle hardened veterans. And those that become such are the survivors of the mistakes that build experience.
A different war and a different type of soldier but a group revered as some of the finest soldiers of all time (and which I happen to know the stats for): when Easy Company left England on the eve of D-Day they were 139 men strong. By the end of their time in Carantan, just 69 enlisted men and 5 officers were left (roughly a month later).
The counter-offensive is going to be similar: Ukraine are going to have to pay a heavy price to liberate their lands but it's quite clear it's a price they're willing to pay (and tbh, one they have little choice about unless they're happy to abandon their fellow countrymen and women to their fate at the hands of a brutal genocidal invader).
'What in sam hell is a puma?'
I believe this video shows the column I pictured above being attacked by Russian KA-52 gunship. At the front of the column are a bunch of destroyed vehicles - the number and arrangement looks very similar. But hard to be certain.
You can see how it's a turkey shoot for the Russians. It takes 20s for the missile to reach their target so he's firing from around 10km away. If these are VIKHR missiles I believe he will carry 12 of them.
We don't see it in the video but the normal tactic for the gunship will be to hide behind trees etc, pop up just enough to see the target, the pop back down. He stays low enough that Ukrainian sams can't see him. Ukraine are going to need to do something about these gunships if they want to proceed with the offensive.
https://i.imgur.com/cz3zKrI.mp4
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