COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Indestructable wrote: »

Does anybody know how the UK are tracking who has received the vaccine? Is it linked to their PPS equivalent or a register or something else? Will they call back the patient on the 21st day for the 2nd jab? Did a bit of googling but couldn't find much.

That logistical challenge is where I fear the HSE may fall short.

Momentous day and can't help feeling a bit jealous looking across the border but we will get there shortly.

That has been my worry all along
They have admitted that their IT systems are not fit for purpose (different regions have different systems that cannot communicate with each other ) and are currently being upgraded
The HSE hopefully do not see this as a long term project and run it as such
I was glad to see the Army being involved
They might bring a proper chain of command ,on the spot decision making and logistical support .plus no 9-5 mentality

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/08/oxford-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-has-70-efficacy-full-trial-data-shows

hmmm wrote: »

Some US news. Long story short, Pfizer didn't accept money as part of "Operation Warp Speed" to avoid any hint of political interference (wise move).

The US as a consequence only bought 100 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine (for 50 million people).

Pfizer pops up with 95% effectiveness and the US panics and tries to buy more. Pfizer tell them that they can't have more until June/July 2021 as they have agreements signed with other countries. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/12/07/pfizer-vaccine-doses-trump/

Trump as a consequence is planning on signing an executive order that would force US companies to prioritise vaccinating Americans before other countries. There's a lot of speculation as to how far this will go - is it just a fig leaf, or would he actually try and seize supplies.

Pfizer quite wisely set up vaccine manufacturing in Belgium as well as the US - but what happens if they are told this vaccine has to be flown back to the US, breaking the contracts it has with other countries? I'd be quite happy myself for the Belgians to park their tanks (if they have tanks) on the runway to seize this supply on behalf of the EU.

The good news in that WAPO article is the possible January trial reporting dates from both J&J and AstraZeneca.

Speaking of the latter -

The Oxford AstraZeneca Covid vaccine has efficacy of 90% in a small group who got a half-dose first, but only 62% in the majority, full trial data newly published in the Lancet has confirmed.

Sky King

Not much talk about the Moderna vaccine lately, though my understanding was that it was to be approved around the same time as the Pfeizer one?

AZ can't be too far behind either - january?

Russman wrote: »

I can see every cnut and his mother trying to get into the 6th category - "Key Workers (to be further refined)"

I wish they'd give an estimate for the time they think it will take each group to be vaccinated though. I know there's still no vaccine approved and supply is hard to predict just now, but I'd love to know how long they think each category might take or how many people might be in each category. 15 categories - does that mean 15 months ? 12 months ? 6 months ?

Still, great to think there's some sort of an end in sight, even if its still some time away.

Germany France and Austria I think ,have all said they hope to have the vast majority of those over 18 who wish to be vaccinated ,vaccinated before the end of June
I would hope we would follow the same timelines
There is nothing stopping us doing it except the supply of vaccines
Money ,manpower and the ability to achieve this should not be a problem
The will to do so by NPHET and the HSE may be an issue
The present Government will fall or remain on the success or failure of this rollout

schmoo2k wrote: »

brisan wrote: »

I don't understand this comment?

Surely you jest
Bill and Melinda Gates views on the the worlds ever increasing population and how to solve the perceived problems are well documented
They have even set up charitable foundations to further their ideals

What's with the bizarrely worded and leading poll question at the top?

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah it's the least logical aspect of this, "key workers" could be huge numbers too.

I assume the HSE were involved so

Kerry25x

namloc1980 wrote: »

What's with the bizarrely worded and leading poll question at the top?

This thread was started back in March when a vaccine was still a long way off.

mightyreds wrote: »

15 groups in the list wonder are we looking at 15 months to get through it or a group weekly/bi-weekly?

If it takes 15 months to rollout it will be a new Government announcing the end of the rollout

VonLuck wrote: »

Does anyone know when/if full details of the rollout will be announced? I'm thinking a programme of time periods for vaccinating the various groups followed by stepping down of levels.

Just plucking figures out of the air, but could be something like:
February 2021 - 150,000 vaccinated - elimination of Levels 4 & 5.
April 2021 - 750,000 vaccinated - elimination of Level 3.
June 2021 - 1,500,000 vaccinated - elimination of Level 2.
etc.

Would be nice to know what they're working towards.

Donnelly has claimed we'll have 1m vaccinated by March, so based on that, a final date for September would not be too far off. As for levels, beyond some new hybrid Level 5 in January, Level 3 would seem to be the aim. I'd be surprised to see Level 2 beyond April and vaccination rates should see relative normality next summer.

Kerry25x wrote: »

This thread was started back in March when a vaccine was still a long way off.

It mentions a rushed September vaccine on the question so not sure about that.

Gael23 wrote: »

Hopefully a private market opens up because I’m not waiting that long. I’m being told to isolate but that low on the priority list

How long do they expect to take for each category?

I doubt very much a legal private market will open up for at least 2-3 years ,and rightfully so

mightyreds wrote: »

15 groups in the list wonder are we looking at 15 months to get through it or a group weekly/bi-weekly?

Different numbers of people fall into the different groups. So doubt it'll be on a month by month basis.

ElTel

Martina1991 wrote: »

The pilot program of using antigen testing in Liverpool had very poor results. These antigen tests will miss a large proportion of cases.

https://twitter.com/bmj_latest/status/1335646455894257667?s=20

The testee is taking their own sample and not wearing gloves whilst a HCW (presumably) observes!
Isn't there a nasal sample taken as well?
Did the testing program rely on a single test?

namloc1980 wrote: »

It mentions a rushed September vaccine on the question so not sure about that.

There was talk, mostly in the UK, of a September vaccine.

[Deleted User]

is_that_so wrote: »

Ours shows a recognition of the question of initially limited vaccine supplies. More categories means more management of that. The UK are "game changing" again and want to do it quickly.

Except that we haven't detailed approximate numbers in each group so we have no idea how far initial supply will go. UK have detailed approx numbers in each of their groups (for example they know their total pfizer supply alone would be enough to get down to all over 60s, health workers and anyone over 18 with a medical condition that makes them high risk).

is_that_so wrote: »

El Pais article , in English and with graphics, making the case for the use of antigen tests.

https://english.elpais.com/science_tech/2020-12-08/isolate-fast-and-curtail-infection-how-antigen-tests-are-changing-the-face-of-the-pandemic.html

Tony says no and his worrymeter is rising

titan18

brisan wrote: »

Germany France and Austria I think ,have all said they hope to have the vast majority of those over 18 who wish to be vaccinated ,vaccinated before the end of June
I would hope we would follow the same timelines
There is nothing stopping us doing it except the supply of vaccines
Money ,manpower and the ability to achieve this should not be a problem
The will to do so by NPHET and the HSE may be an issue
The present Government will fall or remain on the success or failure of this rollout

Did you wake up not living in Ireland today? Odds are we'll fcuk up somewhere

mightyreds wrote: »

15 groups in the list wonder are we looking at 15 months to get through it or a group weekly/bi-weekly?

Well the first 2 groups will be done very fast, within a couple of weeks at most, and category 3 will also be looking for the shot from the off. As category 4 are also in healthcare arena they'll also be done quickly. That's probably your first month and we'll have to wait and see the distribution plan on Friday to see the rest of it. At most it should be 9 months.

Deleted User wrote: »

Category 6 key workers specifically calls out "Providing services essential to the vaccination programme". 10 inclusde "orkers in the food supply system, public and commercial transport and other vital services".

In my view people in category 10 will be broadly similar to those groups permitted to travel for work in Lockdown 1

We make chocolate and were allowed to work during lockdown 1
Age ranges from 18 -63 with some or none medical conditions
We cant all be included in key workers

Deleted User wrote: »

Except that we haven't detailed approximate numbers in each group so we have no idea how far initial supply will go. UK have detailed approx numbers in each of their groups (for example they know their total pfizer supply alone would be enough to get down to all over 60s, health workers and anyone over 18 with a medical condition that makes them high risk).

Most of our categories are not that big until you get to the large demographic definitions and that's in the census or available from the CSO. The UK numbers really depend on the Oxford vaccine. If that's delayed their numbers are pie in the sky.

marno21 wrote: »

I'd be confident that AstraZeneca, Novavax and J&J will be on the table by the end of Q1 2021 at the absolute latest. Should that be the case, with a large swathe of the vulnerable vaccinated and there being a glut of vaccine by then, especially useful if J&J is a single dose vaccine for logistical reasons, it should be game, set & match by Q2 2021.

There will be speed bumps and set backs along the way, but the progress of the vaccination effort to date has been breathtaking. Most experts would have dismissed the timeline I've provided above as the stuff of fairytales just a few months ago.

Other European countries have this timeframe
No reason if the rollout is done in a professional and logistical manner

hmmm

The UK is going to trial one shot of the Oxford vaccine, and one of the mRNA vaccines (and whatever you are having yourself).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/08/covid-mixed-vaccine-trial-likely-to-begin-in-uk-next-month

"The concept is known as a heterologous prime-boost. “It means mix and matching vaccines,” said Bingham. “So you do a prime with one vaccine and then the second – whether it’s 28 days or two months or whatever the agreed periods would be – would be with a different vaccine.”"

hmmm wrote: »

The UK is going to trial one shot of the Oxford vaccine, and one of the mRNA vaccines (and whatever you are having yourself).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/08/covid-mixed-vaccine-trial-likely-to-begin-in-uk-next-month

"The concept is known as a heterologous prime-boost. “It means mix and matching vaccines,” said Bingham. “So you do a prime with one vaccine and then the second – whether it’s 28 days or two months or whatever the agreed periods would be – would be with a different vaccine.”"

Not sure I've ever heard of mixed vaccines. Odd approach.

[Deleted User]

Hmmzis wrote: »

Someone posted this in the Reddit thread on the FDA briefing documents (about the Pfizer/BNT vaccine):

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eot7UV5W8AIas8N?format=png&name=900x900

That is one impressive vaccine, the infection curve gets crushed after about 10-14 after the 1st dose

I noticed too that 70% of participants were overweight or obese. One of the early concerns was that the vaccine might be less effective in the those groups. That seems to be put to rest.

Sconsey

is_that_so wrote: »

Donnelly has claimed we'll have 1m vaccinated by March, so based on that, a final date for September would not be too far off. As for levels, beyond some new hybrid Level 5 in January, Level 3 would seem to be the aim. I'd be surprised to see Level 2 beyond April and vaccination rates should see relative normality next summer.

My rough calculations...

637,000 over 65 years of age (2016 census)
47,000 frontline at risk HCW (CSO HCW at risk of Covid)
163,000 other HCW? based of a figure of 210,000 total from HSA in 2006
? key workers...let's say 50,000

Gives us 897,000. Lets say a million after a big fudge of key workers

So if Stephen Donnelly is correct (a huge 'if'), the at-risk under 65's can expect to start getting vaccinated sometime in April. Still a good few more months of isolation for a lot of people.