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COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Masala

Today being Paddy Day 2020... when do you think we will have a ‘flu jab’ / pill / syrup that we can take to make us immune/ les likely to catch this 19 virus?.

Mod: The purpose of this thread is baked into the title - COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures - it's not a platform to push an anti vaccination agenda. If posters wish to discuss the perceived cons of vaccinations, or push various theories regarding 'the agenda' (whatever that is supposed to mean), open a thread elsewhere on it.

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Water John

Vaccine trials were run where they're was significant Covid spread. that had to be the case, to create the situation where those injected had a significant chance of encountering the virus in society. Trials wouldn't work otherwise.
The alternative which is the proposed one getting special authorisation is the, challenge option. This has ethical questionability. You are deliberately introducing the risk of disease in a healthy person.

hmmm

Fodla wrote: »

It was the immediate talk of vaccines complementing the current measures that got me worried.

Vaccines will take time to kick in once you get them, and they will probably only limit your ability to spread the virus instead of making you completely immune. So someone who gets the vaccine might think they are more protected than they are, and might think they can't pass on the virus when they can.

Once we have enough people vaccinated I expect restrictions to be lifted as we get more population-wide immunity. There might still be people wearing masks, and people with very poor immune systems might take a few extra precautions, but for most of us life goes back to normal. I read somewhere that Wuhan in China is pretty much back to pre-Covid behaviour.

Ted_YNWA

Mod

Can we try & limit the spillover of mask discussion here. There is a mask thread.

[Deleted User]

NI setting out a very aggressive vaccine strategy. I wish our lot were as open as to our approach. Good news all the same.

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/coronavirus-northern-ireland-executive-announces-plan-to-vaccinate-more-than-100000-healthcare-workers-in-three-week-period-39793965.html

charlie14

Fodla wrote: »

Because even countries that have dealt with it still have masks. I'm just saying that there's no evidence to suggest that they will ever be got rid of. But that could change.

I do not know any country that has "dealt with it" to the extent that they are still not worried about further infections and deaths.
I don`t see how you would expect them to stop the use of face masks when nobody has been vaccinated yet.

Water John

Deleted User wrote: »

NI setting out a very aggressive vaccine strategy. I wish our lot were as open as to our approach. Good news all the same.

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/coronavirus-northern-ireland-executive-announces-plan-to-vaccinate-more-than-100000-healthcare-workers-in-three-week-period-39793965.html

If NI had an aggressive policy to deal with the present problem of positives and deaths, I'd be far more pleased.

Hmmzis

CruelSummer wrote: »

In your opinion is that enough to say 95% efficacy despite the fact they’ve behaved as we all are now with social distance & mask wearing? Were these volunteers selected from virus hotspots and jobs where exposure is likely?

Yes, with a reasonable degree of certainty.
The preference in all of these trials has gone to healthcare workers, social workers, first responders etc.
Those people have an inherent risk of getting exposed to the virus, with or without a vaccine trial running. If you give half of them the vaccine and half of them a placebo and tell everyone to behave like they got the placebo (as before the trial) then the difference in rates of infection and disease between the two groups is going to show how effective your vaccine is.

Fodla

Ted_YNWA wrote: »

Mod

Can we try & limit the spillover of mask discussion here. There is a mask thread.

Sure, sorry.

Fodla

charlie14 wrote: »

I do not know any country that has "dealt with it" to the extent that they are still not worried about further infections and deaths.
I don`t see how you would expect them to stop the use of face masks when nobody has been vaccinated yet.

I was thinking of countries like Taiwan and Thailand.

But instead of focusing on masks, it might be better to talk about going back to normal.

funnydoggy

Did the vaccine taskforce meet today?

Craving updates :pac:

Water John

The bit of lack of normal means I haven't heard anyone coughing and spluttering with a cold/flu.

[Deleted User]

Water John wrote: »

If NI had an aggressive policy to deal with the present problem of positives and deaths, I'd be far more pleased.

But this is a vaccine thread.

[Deleted User]

funnydoggy wrote: »

Did the vaccine taskforce meet today?

Craving updates :pac:

Did I hear something about an update on 11 December. Seems a long time away given the speed of developments in this area.

Roger_007

Everyone seems to be assuming that all the vaccines that have had apparently successful trials will get approval by the various regulatory bodies. If there are any issues regarding the conduct of trials, they may not. Or they may recommend usage only for certain cohorts of people. For instance they may recommend that a particular vaccine should not be give to pregnant women.
The regulatory bodies would lose their credibility if any adverse events occur down the road. They are not going to run that risk.

hmmm

Interesting post. Krammer btw volunteered for the Pfizer trial.

https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1332077763809996801

ixoy

Roger_007 wrote: »

Everyone seems to be assuming that all the vaccines that have had apparently successful trials will get approval by the various regulatory bodies.

Exactly. The EMA here would have no intention of approving the vaccines based on what I believe we have so far - which are glorified press releases. They'll do it on the basis of harder data when they have their hands on it, backed with medical expertise that surpasses even the knowledge on this forum!

Fodla

ixoy wrote: »

Exactly. The EMA here would have no intention of approving the vaccines based on what I believe we have so far - which are glorified press releases. They'll do it on the basis of harder data when they have their hands on it, backed with medical expertise that surpasses even the knowledge on this forum!

But why then has Bob Redfield said that people will begin to be vaccinated in the second week of December? Hancock said people would be vaccinated in the coming weeks as well.

timsey tiger

Fodla wrote: »

But why then has Bob Redfield said that people will begin to be vaccinated in the second week of December? Hancock said people would be vaccinated in the coming weeks as well.

I assume they have made assumptions.

ddarcy

Fodla wrote: »

But why then has Bob Redfield said that people will begin to be vaccinated in the second week of December? Hancock said people would be vaccinated in the coming weeks as well.

They’re talking a punt it will get approved. The optics so far look to be good. Is highly effective, low incidence of adverse events (sore arms etc) and no incidences of serious adverse events (hospitalisation, etc). So looks to meet the safety and efficacy guidelines.

I still firmly believe they won’t be out until March for the general population , so that gives 70k+ study entrants 3 more months of data too.

Roger_007

It seems that the OxfordAZ trials are not all they were cracked up to be. I just watched an item on BBC Newsnight about the somewhat misreporting of their trial results.
Apparently the low dose/high dose part of the trial, (where they claimed 90% efficacy), was actually a result of an error in dosage which was not planned. No one over 55 was given that particular dosage regime so their claim of the vaccine giving 90% protection for older people is not proven.

ShineOn7

Seen on Reddit Ireland

We really are way behind. The UK plans to start vaccinations in early December. We will announce out plan for distribution on the 11th of December (which mightn't be a problem if we could be sure that the plan will actually be fully complete on that date which let's be honest it won't)

Has December 11th been confirmed as the date the "plan" is announced?

There's this too

Looking at our neighbours, the UK is starting vaccinations next month, Scotland aims to have 20% of its population vaccinated by the end of January, and we just convened our first meeting of the group responsible for vaccinations, like a pensioner at Aldi who only starts looking for her purse after the last item is scanned.

We are in a situation where Stephen Donnelly, basically a learning difficulty marinated in arrogance, is responsible for the vaccination of almost six million people.

:pac:

speckle

odyssey06 wrote: »

Potentially yes but only with a "Vaccine candidate that has been proven safe in clinical trials could be given to a group of healthy adults in this age range, who are then exposed to the virus in a controlled environment."

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30518-X/fulltext

Maybe I have misinterpreted but I dont think they could have been run in parallel to the trials we are currently discussing.

nah, I think thats the one I came across. thanks

speckle

hmmm wrote: »

Vaccines will take time to kick in once you get them, and they will probably only limit your ability to spread the virus instead of making you completely immune. So someone who gets the vaccine might think they are more protected than they are, and might think they can't pass on the virus when they can.

Once we have enough people vaccinated I expect restrictions to be lifted as we get more population-wide immunity. There might still be people wearing masks, and people with very poor immune systems might take a few extra precautions, but for most of us life goes back to normal. I read somewhere that Wuhan in China is pretty much back to pre-Covid behaviour.

Question did they test a subset of the participants even though they dont know who got what or even check afterwards that did they passed the virus on to anyone else that includes anyone on the trial who may have been asymtomatic not just the ones they know who got covid? ie regular pcr or antigen or antibody or tcells. I hope that makes sense?

Mark1916

https://www.thejournal.ie/uk-government-astrazeneca-vaccine-regulator-5280491-Nov2020/

UK regulator formally asked by the UK government to assess the Oxford Vaccine, the first step in its approval for distribution.

Sky King

The UK department of health has said it expects four million doses of the shot to be ready for Britain by the end of the year and 40 million by the end of March 2021.

That's good going. If they can roll it out at that rate, combined with the other candidates, they'll be more or less sorted by the summer.

Irish Stones

hmmm wrote: »

Once we have enough people vaccinated I expect restrictions to be lifted as we get more population-wide immunity. There might still be people wearing masks, and people with very poor immune systems might take a few extra precautions, but for most of us life goes back to normal.

Does this mean that a real normal as it was before could be never reached?
I have read somewhere that Bill Gates said that most of our behaviours will be changed forever, and that some precuations like distances and masks will be going on for a long while, along with the lack of confidence in other people.
If this is true, these vaccines will only do half of the job people would like to see.

Irish Stones

Fodla wrote: »

I would hope that anyone faced with being forced to take a vaccine would pack their bags immediately and emigrate. If find the idea of being forced to take a vaccine frightening.

It might happen that other countries wouldn't let you in because you're not vaccinated.

Irish Stones

Sky King wrote: »

Its not like you can get your vaccine and then go licking door handles on your way home, it takes weeks to kick in.

I think that Fodla wanted to ask if the current measures would ever be completely lifted, even a year later.
I, like Fodla, think that things might not go back to what they were before this coronavirus.

odyssey06

speckle wrote: »

Question did they test a subset of the participants even though they dont know who got what or even check afterwards that did they passed the virus on to anyone else that includes anyone on the trial who may have been asymtomatic not just the ones they know who got covid? ie regular pcr or antigen or antibody or tcells. I hope that makes sense?

Of the studies I have read about they tested those who reported symptoms.

The CDC website has information about 'cohort' studies that will:
A special type of cohort study will try to answer this question. People who agree to participate will be tested for COVID-19 every week, whether they have symptoms or not. Experts will then compare the proportion of people with infection who were vaccinated to the proportion of people with infection who were not vaccinated.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/effectiveness.html

I haven't come across anything to suggest followup of close contacts. This would be a tricky one as the close contacts could pick up the virus independently of the vaccinated subject.

Edit: According to this the AstraZeneca\Oxford study reported fewer asymptomatic cases, so they must have performed some testing independent of symptoms.
They also said vaccinated people had fewer asymptomatic infections, which suggests they were less likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/another-covid-19-vaccine-success-candidate-may-prevent-further-coronavirus-transmission

Hmmzis

Irish Stones wrote: »

I think that Fodla wanted to ask if the current measures would ever be completely lifted, even a year later.
I, like Fodla, think that things might not go back to what they were before this coronavirus.

That will entirely depend on people themselves. The deeper dive of how people's individual behaviors might or will change could be a topic for whole new megathread.