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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - Read OP for Mod Warnings

Beasty

I guess the fact restrictions have been lifted to a great extent has quietened this topic down, but equally I suspect we may see quite a bit more activity as we continue to try and deal with this pandemic

Part I
Part II
Part III
Part IV

All warnings and threadbans carry over. Please PM the mod issuing a threadban if you wish to discuss options for being allowed to post again

Mod warnings

Beasty wrote: »

It looks like tensions in this thread have been rising

Some general warnings to all:

Remain civil. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. Just because it's the polar opposite of your own does not invalidate it. Anyone who is uncivil towards other users can expect a minimum of a threadban.

Keep to the topic

Do not present "opinion" as "fact"

Do not believe all stats that are spouted. Usually figures presented in any official way are not only checked for inaccuracies, but will also have caveats and/or explanations of what was done to derive any conclusions reached. Stats though are not "facts" beyond the sample they represent. They can be used to draw conclusions over wider populations, but those conclusions are always subject to a margin of error

If you throw up an example please explain what point you are making. For example "Look at Sweden" means nothing unless you say what you are looking at in connection with Sweden. Is it restrictions, is it deaths, is it infections?

Beasty wrote: »

Another reminder - this thread is about restrictions and their relaxation

General Covid discussion belongs in the current Covid thread (#XVII)

Political discussion belongs in Current Affairs or Politics

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Diabhalta

'Slap in the face' - locals 'outraged' after footage emerges of scenes of people dancing on Killarney street
https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/slap-in-the-face-locals-outraged-after-footage-emerges-of-scenes-of-people-dancing-on-killarney-street-39489450.html

omg who cares you whingebags. It seems it's trendy to be super responsible these days. Every other European country moved on, pubs are open, you can go to a nightclub and it's perfectly fine. Maybe some facemasks somewhere but that's about it.

Bunch of people had fun on the street in Ireland and it's all over the news.. How dare they singing on the street! It's not allowed!

What the hell is wrong with people? Are they waiting for government to tell them they can have fun again?? There needs to be a national uprising.

hynesie08

Penfailed wrote: »

Still closed in NI.

We're the only country in the EU with pubs closed.

Penfailed

hynesie08 wrote: »

We're the only country in the EU with pubs closed.

There's pubs closed in regions of Germany too.

Penfailed

hynesie08 wrote: »

We're the only country in the EU with pubs closed.

...and NI is currently still in the EU.

copeyhagen

Penfailed wrote: »

Still closed in NI.

lads were up there a few weeks ago, wet pubs are not closed.

theres some rule about drinking outdoors without the ened for food though.

Diabhalta

hynesie08 wrote: »

We're the only country in the EU with pubs closed.

yup, Ireland behind everyone else as always.

Ha Long Bay

Diabhalta wrote: »

yup, Ireland behind everyone else as always.

Can I ask what's the source for the graphics? It does not appear accurate just at a quick glance as bars in NI are not open at present.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-53478511

Penfailed

copeyhagen wrote: »

lads were up there a few weeks ago, wet pubs are not closed.

theres some rule about drinking outdoors without the ened for food though.

They are though - https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-53923106?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/cp8x8mky3ekt/pubs&link_location=live-reporting-story

I know of loads of pubs that are still closed because they don't have a sufficient outdoor space.

Diabhalta

john4321 wrote: »

Can I ask what's the source for the graphics? It does not appear accurate just at a quick glance as bars in NI are not open at present.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-53478511

Facebook.

3xh

Penfailed wrote: »

Still closed in NI.

It’s obvious why.

hynesie08

Penfailed wrote: »

...and NI is currently still in the EU.

Northern Ireland was never in the EU

Ha Long Bay

Diabhalta wrote: »

Facebook.

Sorry I meant the source of the map not where you happened to see it? You posted it here as fact so presumed you had verified the accuracy.

iamwhoiam

TomTomTim wrote: »

How many grannies did you kill?

28 elderly people died in a local care home
They were someones granny , grandad , mum , dad , brother or sister . Have some respect

Penfailed

hynesie08 wrote: »

Northern Ireland was never in the EU

The UK of GB and NI has been in the EU since 1973...the same as here.

MadYaker

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

OK let's look at the numbers..

- less than 2000 deaths after 6 months, over half of whom were elderly with/or (had) previous underlying conditions

- no new deaths in just over a week now. Minimal deaths for weeks before that

- minimal numbers in hospital for weeks, even less in ICU

- growing evidence that those who are catching the virus are minimally affected (if they know they have it at all)

Those are the facts of the matter. No interpretation there.

So why then are we continuing to restrict the overwhelming majority of people who are at little to no risk from this virus, rather than focusing our efforts on those who actually need those resources and support?

Why are we all wearing masks when before they became mandatory the numbers continued to decline and there were no outbreaks in shopping centres?
Case numbers have increased despite this in recent weeks (thanks again to the mishandling of a known centre of risk - meat plants, similarly to how nursing homes were mishandled previously leading to the aforementioned initial surge in deaths)

Why are we continuing to restrict businesses at great economic and personal cost when the evidence doesn't support the severity of the measures imposed (and no, I'm not just talking about pubs)

These are facts, observed evidence and genuine questions. Ignoring the reality of where we are, or attacking the questioner, will not make it go away. It'll only make the overall situation worse.

You are only interested in what's happened in the past when what matters is what is happening in the future. The measures taken are the reason the numbers are the way they are. This is not a problem we are reacting to, we're being proactive. Your plan seems to be wait for the sh!t to hit the fan and then try and do something about it afterwards. I think a proactive approach is better to be honest.

I mentioned this already and you ignored it so ill say it again. If you look at the figures most of the people getting infected now are under 35 years of age. That's literally the only reason there's not many people in hospital. How long do you reckon we can continue to have cases just increasing and increasing in that age group before it starts to spill over into older age groups, you know the over 50s and 60s? Its not as if there's a limitless supply of 30 somethings to keep getting infected for ever. The current trajectory is not sustainable. Most of these cases aren't even that sick so they aren't in hospital. Do you reckon they are self isolating? Its brain time.

You seem like a smart guy who's trying his hardest not to get it.

lee_baby_simms

MadYaker wrote: »

You are only interested in what's happened in the past when what matters is what is happening in the future.

The present is real. The future is theoretical. Not everyone shares your vision of the future.

Older people are still getting this disease btw. All over Europe. The IFR is dramatically lower than it was in March/April. Across all age demographics.

MadYaker

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

The present is real. The future is theoretical. Not everyone shares your vision of the future.

Older people are still getting this disease btw. All over Europe. The IFR is dramatically lower than it was in March/April. Across all age demographics.

You got some statistics to back that up? I can't find any.

Unfortunately this is a unique situation that requires us to try and predict the future and act accordingly. So far we've done ok but a lot of people have hard time getting their heads around it.

odyssey06

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

The present is real. The future is theoretical. Not everyone shares your vision of the future.
Older people are still getting this disease btw. All over Europe. The IFR is dramatically lower than it was in March/April. Across all age demographics.

Where are you getting your stats per demographic?

As an aside, wasn't there a study in UK that dexamethasone could reduce the death rate of intensive care patients by one third?

lee_baby_simms

MadYaker wrote: »

You got some statistics to back that up? I can't find any.

Look harder. I got these numbers from the Spanish Government website Covid reports.

The IFR of coronavirus (COVID-19) in Spain as of May 22, 2020 for the over 70s was 19.3%

The detected infections in Spain from 10 May to 20 August for the same age group are as follows

14,531 infected were over 70 years of age and sadly 501 died.

That then gives us an IFR 3.4%

So old people are still getting this virus but the IFR has reduced to 1/5 of what it was in March/April.

Looking the IFR for the younger 60-70 year old demographic during the first wave up to May was 5%.

Since May the IFR for the exact same age group is 0.4%. 10,021 infections. Thats a tenfold decrease outside of typical care home age demographic.

SOURCE:

https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/Documents/INFORMES/Informes COVID-19/Informe nº 40.Situación de COVID-19 en España a 20 de agosto de 2020.pdf

hmmm

The more we can flatten the curve and delay the spread, the more time we have to develop better treatments.

Saying that the IFR is lower than earlier in the year is likely to be true, but that's thanks to the efforts of responsible people and businesses to slow the spread, and no thanks to the "it's just a flu" brigade.

In the next couple of months we are likely to see monoclonal antibody treatments, and possibly even the first vaccines being available in limited amounts. Both of these will have dramatic impacts on the IFR.

In the meantime we will need to continue with slowing the spread and trying to keep it at a low level. If you're going to catch this, you want to catch it last.

bucketybuck

MadYaker wrote: »

This all your interpretation of it though. When I look at the numbers I just see numbers there's no slant on it. It may indicate that we are going in the right or wrong direction but those are just facts of our situation that are extrapolated from the figures. Ignore the media opinion stuff and just look at the numbers would be my advice.

MadYaker wrote: »

You are only interested in what's happened in the past when what matters is what is happening in the future. The measures taken are the reason the numbers are the way they are.

Here is a number for you: Zero. As in, there have been zero reported deaths from Covid 19 today.

It should be an easy number to remember, we have been hearing it every day for a while now. Government officials are of course reported to be "very concerned" at this number of deaths.

Loafing Oaf

MadYaker wrote: »

How long do you reckon we can continue to have cases just increasing and increasing in that age group before it starts to spill over into older age groups, you know the over 50s and 60s? Its not as if there's a limitless supply of 30 somethings to keep getting infected for ever. The current trajectory is not sustainable.

But are they actually 'increasing and increasing'? Looks to me more like daily new cases are oscillating between 50 and 150. And they've been like this for a few weeks with little/no uptick in deaths or ICU admissions. Other countries like Spain are experiencing a similar phenomenon on a larger scale.

I'm beginning to think there might be something to the theory that most of those who died in the first wave of Covid-19 were in the ultra-vulnerable category, and the main reason we are seeing so few deaths/ICU admissions associated with the current 'second wave' is there are relatively few such 'soft targets' left for the virus.

MadYaker

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

But are they actually 'increasing and increasing'? Looks to me more like daily new cases are oscillating between 50 and 150. And they've been like this for a few weeks with little/no uptick in deaths or ICU admissions. Other countries like Spain are experiencing a similar phenomenon on a larger scale.

I'm beginning to think there might be something to the theory that most of those who died in the first wave of Covid-19 were in the ultra-vulnerable category, and the main reason we are seeing so few deaths/ICU admissions associated with the current 'second wave' is there are relatively few such 'soft targets' left for the virus.

So everyone who's over 70 or has an underlying condition is dead? Are you honestly saying that's the situation? No vulnerable people left? Or at least not many? Id have to ask wat fcuking planet you're on to be honest. Never mind the black and white statistics from NPHET about the age demoraphic currently testing positive.

You don't think 50 - 150 cases a day is an increase in overall cases? It is. There's only so much the vulnerable can do to protect themselves if the virus continues to spread in the general population. Its an unavoidable fact.

MadYaker

bucketybuck wrote: »

Here is a number for you: Zero. As in, there have been zero reported deaths from Covid 19 today.

It should be an easy number to remember, we have been hearing it every day for a while now. Government officials are of course reported to be "very concerned" at this number of deaths.

Yes, lets focus on one single number in a massively complex and constantly evolving situation, that will definitely give us the clearest picture of reality.

niallo27

MadYaker wrote: »

Yes, lets focus on one single number in a massively complex and constantly evolving situation, that will definitely give us the clearest picture of reality.

Its the most important though, its all that matters in the end. 2nd must be ICU numbers. Its good news, why do people constantly want to take any bit of good news and make it into a negative.

Loafing Oaf

MadYaker wrote: »

So everyone who's over 70 or has an underlying condition is dead? Are you honestly saying that's the situation? No vulnerable people left? Or at least not many? Id have to ask wat fcuking planet you're on to be honest.

No, I said 'ultra-vulnerable'. I'm talking people in their 80s and 90s with multiple severe underlying conditions. I'm just trying to understand the seemingly paradoxical situation where we've had relatively high numbers of new cases for several weeks, but very few people dying or even getting seriously ill.

Birdie Num Num

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

No, I said 'ultra-vulnerable'. I'm talking people in their 80s and 90s with multiple severe underlying conditions. I'm just trying to understand the seemingly paradoxical situation where we've had relatively high numbers of new cases for several weeks, but very few people dying or even getting seriously ill.

Irrespective of the virus and its effects, it’s a demographic who have largely been ultra careful. A demographic that have had more restrictions than any other and have adhered to those restrictions.

MadYaker

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

No, I said 'ultra-vulnerable'. I'm talking people in their 80s and 90s with multiple severe underlying conditions. I'm just trying to understand the seemingly paradoxical situation where we've had relatively high numbers of new cases for several weeks, but very few people dying or even getting seriously ill.

There's nothing paradoxical about it. 90% of those infected are under 35 so there's only about 4 in ICU I think?

My opinion (and that's all it is) is that this continued spread that we've seen in this age group for weeks now isn't sustainable because at some point the virus will reach a level in the community where it starts to spread to older age demographics and then we have a problem. Irish society isn't divided into 2 separate groups of those less at risk and those more at risk. We all live together and 50 to 100 new cases a day is really not sustainable imo. Most of these cases aren't even that sick so they aren't in hospital, do you reckon they're self isolating? At the moment there's about 3500 active cases in the country which is the highest since mid may. Only in mid may it was bed ridden 80+ year olds now its 30 something years olds "self isloating". https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ireland/

I just feel the trend is going the wrong direction.

MadYaker

I might be totally wrong and to be honest if the government announced a nationwide lockdown tomorrow and there was a protest in dublin id be there. Thats no longer an option imo. We have to just get better at doing what we're doing.

FintanMcluskey

MadYaker wrote: »

I might be totally wrong and to be honest if the government announced a nationwide lockdown tomorrow and there was a protest in dublin id be there.

Jeasus this escalated rapidly