Boggles wrote: » No I actually read about his study when it came out and then I read about the criticisms of it. Again, youtube isn't the best place to educate yourself either. Edit: Here.“Implausible figures” – criticism of the Heinsberg study
byhookorbycrook wrote: » 2 cases in Kerry today . Once tourism re-opens , there will be many more .
Murple wrote: » The HSE link below refers to 200-500 people dying from flu each year.https://www.hse.ie/eng/health/immunisation/pubinfo/adult/fluva/ As another poster mention, this is without the precautions that were taken with Covid-19. Over and over again, people in the medical field have stated that this is not like the flu. It is much much worse. We focus so much on death without looking at those who become seriously ill and survive but with likely long term health issues as a consequence. The death toll is awful without a doubt but many are happy to dismiss it as older people who would die in a few years anyway- not my sentiment but one which I've read over and over again. But if you want to look at it coldly, in terms of the public pocket, which many people seem to relate to better, have widespread infection of the virus and we will likely have more cases of people surviving and needing long term health care. There are plenty of stories of people now leaving hospital after 30,40, 50 days in hospital, often on ventilators or in ICU for much of that time. Again medical insiders have said this is not just a flu. It is much much worse.
sideswipe wrote: » Spellings for me and mangahigh. Don’t know much about either as yet. I’m a little apprehensive about doing spellings by touching and swiping a screen, Maybe I’m a bit old school but I think writing them down is more conducive to remembering them. Time will tell I suppose. It will be handy to keep a close eye on progress though.
Paul Fat Beard wrote: » You watched, analysed and discounted a 30 minute video that I referred to at 11.17am by 11.56am.
Boggles wrote: » His study is faulty to the point of being useless, shady funding and based on an antibody test that had a exceedingly high false positivity rate. Stay away from celebrity "scientists" making sweeping statements base on questionable studies is my advice. Stick to ones who have dedicated their lives to fighting infectious diseases and have the accreditation to back it up.
Paul Fat Beard wrote: » Rough calculations. I've seen hse quote 500-600 deaths per year in Ireland from the flu Three times that is the current covid deaths. Below link from the hse refers to 1000 deaths from flu season.https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/media/pressrel/flu-causes-severe-illness-and-death-in-ireland-every-year.html I've read and seen a lot of articles indicating a mortality rate of 0.1% which would roughly mean 5,000 deaths in Ireland. Again, without accurate and widespread testing, nobody knows but the German study I referred to earlier did a sample of 1000 people.
Paul Fat Beard wrote: » Honestly?? Your retorts are to :- Compare me to Trump, or ask me to prove the 'facts' you refer but don't cite don't exist.
Paul Fat Beard wrote: » Best of all you want my opinion instead of a professor in epidemiology. My opinion is that the professor in epidemiology knows more than either of us.
Murple wrote: » Out of interest, what are these many organisations that stayed open, working as normal with no social distancing, no masks, very close and prolonged work with low to zero infections?
WAW wrote: » Like another poster, many organisations stayed open and working as normal without social distancing simply because it was not workable, without masks and low to zero infections - very close, prolonged working, and thankfully people were fine.
Boggles wrote: » So again, are you of the belief that if we didn't mitigate that it would still only be "Three times as bad".?
Zahir Bitter Cellist wrote: » In theory....
Benimar wrote: » The pubs are opening as restaurants, not as the pubs we know. And Social Distancing will apply.
Boggles wrote: » Sorry which "statement" did I make that is not an actual fact? I asked for your opinion not Hendriks. So again, are you of the belief that if we didn't mitigate that it would still only be "Three times as bad".?
marilynrr wrote: » What do you mean by get back to normal though? What's the figure or the bottom line? For all we know there's never going to be a vaccine and we don't know if people who have got it will have lasting immunity, this could become seasonal and come back every year. There hasn't been a new case in Kerry for a month, obviously it makes no sense to open the schools now but lets say it was end of September and Kerry had had a month without a new case....why wouldn't it be acceptable for kids in that county to go to school full time to receive their proper education? what is the period of time they would have to wait?
Paul Fat Beard wrote: » You keep making statements about this as if they are fact.
Paul Fat Beard wrote: » Check out an interview with Professor Hendrik Streeck, an epidemiologist from the University of Bonn. He 'over' estimates a fatality rate of between 0.2-0.3%. He uses the words over estimate.
Paul Fat Beard wrote: » According to the hse, approx 500 die per year in Ireland from the flu. So this is currently three times as bad.
Boggles wrote: » That's before you even consider the other effects of a collapsed emergency care system.
Boggles wrote: » Christ you just went full Trump. :rolleyes: We don't lockdown for the flu and we have some very effective treatments including the occasional vaccine. You are comparing flu deaths to coronavirus deaths without factoring in the death rate if we didn't mitigate. You still think it would "only" be 3 times as much. That's before you even consider the other effects of a collapsed emergency care system. Well no, there is Clear Consensus. The countries that acted the fastest and toughest have had the best outcomes.
sideswipe wrote: » It's worth pointing out their regional approach. This will need to happen in Ireland too- spike in cases or outbreaks needs to be treated by area rather than the whole country. There are areas in Ireland that have had no cases in a weeks and yet schools are still closed. An outbreak in one area should not lead to schools closing again across the whole country next term.
Paul Fat Beard wrote: » Eventually we will have to live with it just like seasonal flu. According to the hse, approx 500 die per year in Ireland from the flu.
Paul Fat Beard wrote: » Which country /approach was correct? I doubt that there will ever be a consensus on that.
Boggles wrote: » Which approach was correct so? What country didn't mitigate and the virus just burnt itself out?
Jizique wrote: » I am listening to RTÉ 1 now and the pub representatives are on talking about 90 mins, pub crawls and €9 meals. The pubs are opening - this is not about Chapter One and the restaurant trade
Paul Fat Beard wrote: » That said I don't believe it burnt itself out and is gone forever or that the lockdown was the correct approach.
Boggles wrote: » Well no, I am not assuming anything, it's not my opinion. Evidence based science conclusively proves the restrictions controlled the spread of the virus, it's absolutely irrefutable and bizarre in the extreme that a functioning adult at this stage would hold such a view. Unless you can cite some other credible science based evidence that a similar novel virus would have just burned itself out in the same time frame with the same adverse effects without mitigation? I'll gladly take a peek.
Benimar wrote: » Pubs aren't back on June 29th. Restaurants are. Any 'pub' opening has to operate as a restaurant. Oh, they are also using this thing called Social Distancing. Not one teacher has said they wont go back if SD regulations are enforced.
