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Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Tokyo

Continuation of the "Relaxation of restrictions" from here.

Please note that all mod warnings and threadbans carry through from the previous thread.

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Asal beag dubh

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Well the fact that you created 22% unemployment in the state should also be lauded. 14% permanent unemployment September onward into the next year. How many suicide deaths will occur from us sitting at home and putting younger generation into poverty? how many drug addicts will we create? Leo will not even give you an estimate, because it would be much higher than 1300.

And younger generation has 50 + years ahead of them. Government has made a huge error and it will be very clear in a matter of 6 months from now.

Even if you think that a righteous cull of older people who are on death's door anyway is justifiable ... on the tenuous grounds that it's a fair trade off for getting the economy back up and running and for younger people's mental health ...... please take a look at some of the videos that front line healthcare workers have been posting from areas that are overwhelmed from the virus. These people are on the brink. Some have died due to their efforts (from the virus or suicide) and many will probably suffer from some form of PTSD for years to come. These people didn't sign up for this level of risk/stress/trauma but they keep going. Many are still posting messages pleading with people to stay at home. Thankfully we haven't reached this level in Ireland but we weren't far off it - many, many HCW have been sick from COVID. We need to protect them and make sure that if there is a spike, that they're available and have the capacity and energy to deal with it. Please show some consideration.

yosemitesam1

Cina wrote: »

I agree a middle ground is needed, whatever that is. Our roadmap is overly slow and restrictive. At the same time I think it's dangerous to try downplay this virus now after we've successfully implemented measures to curb its progress.

Italy and Spain had to lock their people indoors completely for two months because their health services were collapsing under coronavirus, but people seem eager to forget that. We shouldn't underestimate what this virus can do if measures aren't in place.

To what extent were the Spanish and Italian health services overwhelmed due to mass health care worker shortages.
Foreign staff returning home, parents at home minding children instead of them being in school and covid positive workers.
If a standard flu season puts hospital staff under pressure, a large staff shortage at a very busy time will cause carnage like what was seen

[Deleted User]

Today we're starting another 2 weeks of lockdown. Reinfection rate is less than 1. Number in ICU is less than 100. Hospitals are nowhere near capacity.

If these numbers justify a lockdown, I don't see us getting out of phase 1 or 2.

We'll have to stay in lockdown until a vaccine arrives or we're so screwed economically that we have no choice but to end it, which is most likely.

the kelt

Cina wrote: »

To be clear, I didn't at any point argue that our roadmap isn't overly restrictive compared to other countries, only that it's wrong to underestimate how dangerous this virus actually is if nothing is done about it or if people start to become too lax about it.

But why are we assuming that we are being lax about it?

You mentioned comparisons with other countries for example.

Its obvious every country has to take it seriously and take the appropriate measures.

What no one seems to know is that for some reason we have to be far more restrictive and take far more restrictive measures in our country compared to almost every other country in the world even those that were hit way more than us.

If we have to take the measures we are taking then so be it, if we have to be far more restrictive than other countries and more careful then so be it.

But do people not wonder why?

Is our Health Service such a mess that we have to?
Have we made mistakes along the way?
Is it more serious here than in other countries even though the numbers dont back that up?

mooseknunkle

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Here is another joke, Denmark opening barbers on 21 April and Ireland on 20th of July. Either 1 government is reckless or 1 government is clueless.

I followed the restrictions for the first 4 weeks and done my part,two weeks ago i started going for longer walks well outside of the 2km radius just me and my dog ,today i got a haircut from a barber and im going to travel over 100km to meet up with a friend sometime tomorrow.

I've given up on these restrictions and won't be following them any longer,best to luck to anyone on here whos willing to sit on their hands at home for the next 3 months and believe everything the government is telling them.

fly_agaric

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

When in reality, out of population of 5m of Ireland or 10m of Sweden you will have 100,000 + disregarding ANY rules you impose. This thread is talking about idealism of - hey, lockdown, people stay at home unless exercising or getting food. Reality = house parties. That will be the case even if Leo puts on a gardai uniform and starts walking door to door doing checks.

You just pulled those numbers from your bottom (or somewhere worse!) to try and make a poor argument.

On the "reality = house parties" I don't think so. Not from what I've seen, its relaxed a bit I think last few days, more people out and about I think but the sun has been splitting the stones.

If I may pull figures out of my own fundament/go on anecdote I'd say people egregiously flouting restrictions/actively trying to spread this virus by gathering close together in groups, hosting parties etc would be more like 1 % or even fewer. Fear is a very good motivator.

I don't think anyone knows (yet) exactly why the virus has behaved exactly as it has in different countries. Imagine it is going to be subject of alot of research.

I don't think anyone can say what would have happened here if we'd done nothing/far less (as regards the "lockdown"/enforced closures of businesses, restrictions of public gatherings etc) at an official level. There is that fear thing again, where if hospitals started to fill up with patients & people's elderly relatives were being struck down in droves, joe public may not be inclined to just ignore it & soilder on in their job/going out and about + enjoying themselves for sake of the economy.

We can look at the UK which is our closest comparator which acted a bit more slowly than us, and does seem to have been hit somewhat harder.

ixoy

storker wrote: »

Yes...you know, the kind of common sense that had the crowds heading for Cheltenham and packing out pubs in Dublin even after virus warnings had been given.

Bit different now though, I'd like to think - there were far fewer cases and I think no deaths yet at that point (or very small numbers), so people didn't understand the risk like they now do.
As to Temple Bar - that pub case was very likely tourists, who it's far more difficult to get the notice of and are of course no longer here.

storker

hmmm wrote: »

Your big plan is instead of telling people what they should be doing in the face of a new pandemic, you're going to tell them to use "cop on" and "common sense"?

OK.

Yes...you know, the kind of common sense that had the crowds heading for Cheltenham and packing out pubs in Dublin even after virus warnings had been given.

KrustyUCC

kippy wrote: »

Or two countries with vastly different variables.

Sure things are different between countries

However three months difference are very significant variables for the same job

It doesn't make sense to me

kippy

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Well the fact that you created 22% unemployment in the state should also be lauded. 14% permanent unemployment September onward into the next year. How many suicide deaths will occur from us sitting at home and putting younger generation into poverty? how many drug addicts will we create? Leo will not even give you an estimate, because it would be much higher than 1300.

And younger generation has 50 + years ahead of them. Government has made a huge error and it will be very clear in a matter of 6 months from now.

What would you have done and when?

expectationlost

iamwhoiam wrote: »

There would be many deaths apart from Covid if they were to cocoon until August .

which is why they allowed for them to go out in their advice

Ginger n Lemon

Crocked wrote: »

You said hospital capacity increases by four fold or more, that is patiently not true. There is neither the staff or space to do that. That's why the western world shut down their economies and built some extra capacity as best they could. The fact our efforts were so far successful in reducing the need to the extra capacity should be lauded. We got fairly close to using up all ICU capacity as it was.

Good to know thousands of people dying is grand for you though, cause sure they'd have died anyway!!

Well the fact that you created 22% unemployment in the state should also be lauded. 14% permanent unemployment September onward into the next year. How many suicide deaths will occur from us sitting at home and putting younger generation into poverty? how many drug addicts will we create? Leo will not even give you an estimate, because it would be much higher than 1300.

And younger generation has 50 + years ahead of them. Government has made a huge error and it will be very clear in a matter of 6 months from now.

kippy

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Our barbers more contagious then theirs?

What are the 'vastly different variables' that would mean barbers have more/less impact on COVID-19 cases?

There's absolutely no point answering that.

Ginger n Lemon

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

Is it nonsense though? Was it not actually proven on the first weekend after the restrictions were implemented when many videos circulated of people not social distancing?

It is nonsense. The deadly disease brigade will tell you Swedes are locked up and are voluntarily staying home.

When in reality, out of population of 5m of Ireland or 10m of Sweden you will have 100,000 + disregarding ANY rules you impose. This thread is talking about idealism of - hey, lockdown, people stay at home unless exercising or getting food. Reality = house parties. That will be the case even if Leo puts on a gardai uniform and starts walking door to door doing checks.

Penfailed

CoronaBlocker wrote: »

A doctor, a lawyer and a statistician went hunting.
After about 30 minutes on the trail the doctor had a shot at a dear but just missed the head by a couple of centimetres. The lawyer lined up a shot then but just as he fired, his foot slipped and he missed the ass of the dear by an inch.
"We got him!" yelled the statistician!

*gets coat*

Oh deer...

Crocked

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Is ICU overwhelmed? are hospitals overwhelmed? In Ireland - no.

In Wuhan they were, so they build 1600 bed hospital in 11 days.

In UK they turned stadiums and large venues into temporary hospitals/beds 4000 beds in blink of an eye. They are empty now btw and have never been utilised, because coronavirus is just not as deadly or contagious as some people in this thread will make you believe it is. And if you say otherwise, they ll say you have an agenda against 70 year olds...

You said hospital capacity increases by four fold or more, that is patiently not true. There is neither the staff or space to do that. That's why the western world shut down their economies and built some extra capacity as best they could. The fact our efforts were so far successful in reducing the need to the extra capacity should be lauded. We got fairly close to using up all ICU capacity as it was.

Good to know thousands of people dying is grand for you though, cause sure they'd have died anyway!!

timmy_mallet

kippy wrote: »

Or two countries with vastly different variables.

Our barbers more contagious then theirs?

What are the 'vastly different variables' that would mean barbers have more/less impact on COVID-19 cases?

kippy

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Here is another joke, Denmark opening barbers on 21 April and Ireland on 20th of July. Either 1 government is reckless or 1 government is clueless.

Or two countries with vastly different variables.

TCDStudent1

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

That's incorrect. If Sweden's deaths per 1m is 279, and Ireland's is 261, it seems to suggest lockdown is borderline useless. Wash your hands and try to stay 2 meters away from strangers and no public gatherings of more than 50 people has done the job for Sweden and did not create 22% unemployment/ 14% long term unemployment.

But then you have people coming and starting to give you demographics of Sweden, how their people are superior and smarter than Irish people and can follow directions etc. How Irish people are drunks and would break social distancing in pubs within 10 mins of entering etc etc. Nonsense.

Is it nonsense though? Was it not actually proven on the first weekend after the restrictions were implemented when many videos circulated of people not social distancing?

Ginger n Lemon

Naos wrote: »

There's a real issue when you have people stating the virus is not as deadly or as infectious as once thought, while at the same time completely disregarding the impact these lockdown measures have had on the virus.

It also appears some are just wanting to have a go for the sake of it. There was a huge contingency on this thread demanding a roadmap last week and without one, there would be uproar.

Then they get one and so that rage is re-directed towards the roadmap and how it's not good enough.

That's incorrect. If Sweden's deaths per 1m is 279, and Ireland's is 261, it seems to suggest lockdown is borderline useless. Wash your hands and try to stay 2 meters away from strangers and no public gatherings of more than 50 people has done the job for Sweden and did not create 22% unemployment/ 14% long term unemployment.

But then you have people coming and starting to give you demographics of Sweden, how their people are superior and smarter than Irish people and can follow directions etc. How Irish people are drunks and would break social distancing in pubs within 10 mins of entering etc etc. Nonsense.

Penfailed

road_high wrote: »

Take it as read then that the payments won’t be lasting much longer, perhaps a month or two more

Did anyone realistically think that it was going to be never ending?

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

easypazz wrote: »

The Stockholm metro area has a population of 2.4M, compared to 1.4M Dublin.

I don't disagree with social distancing but if you ask me the final phase of the lockdown here achieved very little and in fact it made things worse in terms of destroying the economy completely, requiring a very difficult comeback now.

Stockholm are expecting herd immunity in weeks, so if this swings around again they may be better placed than the rest of us.

A lot of people in Stockholm have been staying home as much as possible voluntarily though. Also, they havent' witnessed a change in pattern or a reduction in cases lately, the way Ireland has.

Their certainly hasn't been any huge peak of the size was predicted by the "do nothing" curve compared to the "flattened curve" in the graphs that were posted a few months ago.

expectationlost

this is what NPHET said EXPotxhXgAEvYru?format=jpg&name=large

very much on one hand and the other https://assets.gov.ie/73788/5d0c9cc4619c4f59877bf3f6e7a14afb.pdf

Naos

hmmm wrote: »

Completely wrong. This virus is around 3 times more infectious than the Flu.

The actions we have taken have slowed the spread - without those actions we would have been a Wuhan, Iran or Ecuador.

If you're going to look for restrictions to be lifted, you need to at least live in reality when proposing what should be done first.

There's a real issue when you have people stating the virus is not as deadly or as infectious as once thought, while at the same time completely disregarding the impact these lockdown measures have had on the virus.

It also appears some are just wanting to have a go for the sake of it. There was a huge contingency on this thread demanding a roadmap last week and without one, there would be uproar.

Then they get one and so that rage is re-directed towards the roadmap and how it's not good enough.

Cina

the kelt wrote: »

Ok what about Belgium which got really badly affected by this.

How come they are opening up quicker than us with all shops opening up 11th of May and Schools partially the following week

Or Italy allowing 4 million people back to work as of today

Or Slovenia, Italy and Poland opening up

Or France partially opening up primary schools on May 11th

Genuine question, whats have we got so wrong that means we cant open up compared to the rest of the world?

I dont know the answer, trust me im no expert but i see no harm in asking the question of why though rather than just follow blindly

To be clear, I didn't at any point argue that our roadmap isn't overly restrictive compared to other countries, only that it's wrong to underestimate how dangerous this virus actually is if nothing is done about it or if people start to become too lax about it.

uli84

helpful wrote: »

That was stated in the the roadmap to reopening society and business on page 5 I think.

Great, that gives me some hope, thanks

na1

Deleted User wrote: »

Plus there is an increasing amount of evidence that different types of lockdowns have not had a meaningful impact on the the trajectory of the virus through different European countries, whether Spain, Sweden or Ireland. Both epidemiologists on Newstalk this morning talking about hygiene, social distancing, testing and tracing being the mechanisms through which spread is managed - not lockdowns

By not supporting our lockdown measures you're helping the spreading of the virus!

Ginger n Lemon

CoronaBlocker wrote: »

A doctor, a lawyer and a statistician went hunting.
After about 30 minutes on the trail the doctor had a shot at a dear but just missed the head by a couple of centimetres. The lawyer lined up a shot then but just as he fired, his foot slipped and he missed the ass of the dear by an inch.
"We got him!" yelled the statistician!

*gets coat*

Here is another joke, Denmark opening barbers on 21 April and Ireland on 20th of July. Either 1 government is reckless or 1 government is clueless.

robbiezero

hmmm wrote: »

It's difficult to know what people want on this thread at times.

On the one hand we are supposed to protect the at-risk groups and let everyone else go about their business, but then we are also opposed to asking over-70s to stay at home?

We give out about empty hospitals being prepared for large amounts of Covid patients, while at the same time we think the risk is overstated and we should just get out and about spreading it.

We give out about the number of deaths in nursing homes, while at the same time appear happy to accept large numbers of deaths as the price for reopening everything.

I saw a Harvard doctor being interviewed on TV recently when talking about Trump and his supporters pushing for reopening before the virus was under control. He simply asked would the supporters of this approach have the courage to say exactly how many deaths in patients and hospital staff they were happy to accept as the price of this rush to reopen.

Very little of that bears any relation to what is being written on this thread.

the kelt

Cina wrote: »

Sweden, one of the world's most sparsely populated countries. Their borders were shut between neighbouring countries. They have the highest percentage of adult's living alone in the world. They still had social distancing in place and restrictions on public transport etc.

Why Sweden? Why not Italy? Why not Spain? Why not the USA? Why not the UK? Why not Belgium? They are a solitary example to use when so many other examples exist that show coronavirus is extremely deadly if nothing is done about it.

Ok what about Belgium which got really badly affected by this.

How come they are opening up quicker than us with all shops opening up 11th of May and Schools partially the following week

Or Italy allowing 4 million people back to work as of today

Or Slovenia, Italy and Poland opening up

Or France partially opening up primary schools on May 11th

Genuine question, whats have we got so wrong that means we cant open up compared to the rest of the world?

I dont know the answer, trust me im no expert but i see no harm in asking the question of why though rather than just follow blindly