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Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Tokyo

Continuation of the "Relaxation of restrictions" from here.

Please note that all mod warnings and threadbans carry through from the previous thread.

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Asal beag dubh

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Is ICU overwhelmed? are hospitals overwhelmed? In Ireland - no.

In Wuhan they were, so they build 1600 bed hospital in 11 days.

In UK they turned stadiums and large venues into temporary hospitals/beds 4000 beds in blink of an eye. They are empty now btw and have never been utilised, because coronavirus is just not as deadly or contagious as some people in this thread will make you believe it is. And if you say otherwise, they ll say you have an agenda against 70 year olds...

You need to show some consideration towards front line health care workers. Thankfully, they weren't overwhelmed in Ireland. Have you seen what's going on in countries where they have been? They are exhausted, traumatised and many have died due to over-exposure to the virus and their vulnerability to it. I can't imagine what would happen if these countries spike again.

Despite what you suggest, this virus is highly contagious. The outbreaks in our meat-processing factories show this with 100s testing positive. Many of the workers who tested positive were asymptomatic. These people are unwittingly bringing the virus home, risking exposure to vulnerable people. This paints a picture of possible future scenarios as things relax and how important it is that we're on top of testing.

It's a desperate situation for our economy, but economies require consumer confidence. That can only be regained if it can be conclusively shown that the State is on top of things. That affects our ability to borrow what we need to keep our economy alive.

I'm sure that the relaxation will be reviewed over time and that things will move quicker if our numbers keep improving. However, I believe that the economy would be in worse trouble if the restrictions were constantly yo-yo-ing.

easypazz

Cina wrote: »

Sweden, one of the world's most sparsely populated countries. Their borders were shut between neighbouring countries. They have the highest percentage of adult's living alone in the world. They still had social distancing in place and restrictions on public transport etc.

Why Sweden? Why not Italy? Why not Spain? Why not the USA? Why not the UK? Why not Belgium? They are a solitary example to use when so many other examples exist that show coronavirus is extremely deadly if nothing is done about it.

The Stockholm metro area has a population of 2.4M, compared to 1.4M Dublin.

I don't disagree with social distancing but if you ask me the final phase of the lockdown here achieved very little and in fact it made things worse in terms of destroying the economy completely, requiring a very difficult comeback now.

Stockholm are expecting herd immunity in weeks, so if this swings around again they may be better placed than the rest of us.

niallo27

Cina wrote: »

I agree a middle ground is needed, whatever that is. Our roadmap is overly slow and restrictive. At the same time I think it's dangerous to try downplay this virus now after we've successfully implemented measures to curb its progress.

Italy and Spain had to lock their people indoors completely for two months because their health services were collapsing under coronavirus, but people seem eager to forget that. We shouldn't underestimate what this virus can do if measures aren't in place.

Italy and Spain were so badly hit in my opinion because they had no time to react, with just social distancing,good hygiene and locking down the nursing homes, I do think we would not have seen anything on the scale of what Italy and spain had.

CoronaBlocker

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I know the "save over 70s" brigade is going to come after me, but yet another extremely educated individual is coming out and saying - chill. Elderly are not going to drop like flies once pubs open. And in fact coronavirus isnt necessarily going to end million of lives if you are allowed to go to TKmaxx.

YOUR risk of dying from coronavirus is "roughly the same as your annual risk", a top expert says.

Professor David Spiegelhalter, a statistician at the University of Cambridge, said that people are "over anxious" about getting Covid-19 - despite the chances being relatively low.

A doctor, a lawyer and a statistician went hunting.
After about 30 minutes on the trail the doctor had a shot at a dear but just missed the head by a couple of centimetres. The lawyer lined up a shot then but just as he fired, his foot slipped and he missed the ass of the dear by an inch.
"We got him!" yelled the statistician!

Cina

niallo27 wrote: »

Ya but there has to be a middle ground, any doctor is going say shut everything down because from a medical point of view this is the safest thing to, but it is not viable long term. As for the scientists we have a different model coming out every day, debunked and then a new model the following week.

I agree a middle ground is needed, whatever that is. Our roadmap is overly slow and restrictive. At the same time I think it's dangerous to try downplay this virus now after we've successfully implemented measures to curb its progress.

Italy and Spain had to lock their people indoors completely for two months because their health services were collapsing under coronavirus, but people seem eager to forget that. We shouldn't underestimate what this virus can do if measures aren't in place.

mandrake04

snowcat wrote: »

This is true. NZ and other countries with very low rates are now hugely susceptable to a second wave as they have no herd tolerence at all.

https://sway.office.com/PwTN7GCvJWDgn9yd

NZ wouldnt be susceptible to a 2nd wave unless the lift their current restrictions, 14 days forced isolation on entering the country. Even if they had another outbreak they have the resources and infrastructure to deal with it effectively.

Ireland would be more susceptible to a 2nd wave that NZ because it still very much struggling with the 1st, Herd immunity only works if 60% of the population is immune. Ireland has 20,000 confirmed cases but even if they had 250,000 cases that's only 5%.

Ginger n Lemon

Cina wrote: »

They're not overhwhelmed because we went into lockdown.

Have you seen Italy? Or the US? Prime examples of what happens when countries didn't do what we did early enough.

The problem is that people like you see the lower death rates and assume that means the virus isn't actually as deadly as we've been told, despite those low death rates only being there because we've all been under strict f*cking lockdowns. Maybe they do need to open everything up again for a while so you lot can see what will happen if this virus is left unchecked.

Coronoavirus has already been proven to be extremely infectious, with much higher mortality rates than the flu yet you still get people claiming it's not as bad as it's made out to be. mental. It's amazing how the internet brigade seemingly know more than most top scientists and doctors worldwide. Fair play to ye.

Denmark, Czech republic, Sweden, Germany are all opened. Czech republic have opened borders. Sweden has never even closed.

Did 20 000 people die in Sweden? 50 000? Are we going to have a minutes silence for 100 000 dead in Sweden from Coronavirus?

Belarus has continued to play football, their president says business as usual, laughs at countries like ours who just committed financial suicide. I havent seen a single piece of evidence of 100 000 dead in Belarus, a country of 9.5m people. Or even 2,000...

(MINSK, Belarus) — The World Health Organization is urging the government of Belarus to cancel public events and implement measures to ensure physical and social distancing amid the growing coronavirus outbreak.

Belarus has long figured out that WHO are just a bunch of clowns who are not even funded anymore.

Cina

easypazz wrote: »

We don't.

We just google "coronavirus Sweden"

Sweden, one of the world's most sparsely populated countries. Their borders were shut between neighbouring countries. They have the highest percentage of adult's living alone in the world. They still had social distancing in place and restrictions on public transport etc.

Why Sweden? Why not Italy? Why not Spain? Why not the USA? Why not the UK? Why not Belgium? They are a solitary example to use when so many other examples exist that show coronavirus is extremely deadly if nothing is done about it.

retro:electro

iamwhoiam wrote: »

There would be many deaths apart from Covid if they were to cocoon until August .

Not only that but since over 70’s are included in the most vulnerable bracket, staying active and keeping as fit and healthy as possible is extremely important for their immunity and fitness levels, which are factors that we depend on in order to fight the virus. Locking them up for months and not allowing them any exercise at all would have extremely negative affects if they were to catch the virus come August. We need to encourage them to keep as fit and active as possible (obviously keeping away from shops and crowds)

I fail to see why a walk either alone or with a member of their household daily, or even a neighbour while keeping to strict social distancing and not touching anything would have untoward consequences for their health. There’s no evidence it has for anyone so far.

road_high

stephenjmcd wrote: »

"The Department of Social Protection will continue to support workers until they go back to work, a government Minister has said.

However, Minister for Employment Affairs and Social Protection, Regina Doherty also warned that the current payments would not sustainable in the long term."

The times and the examiner cover the above quotes this morning, with ministers saying stuff like that you'll see more and more businesses looking to open up well before the current road map allows

Take it as read then that the payments won’t be lasting much longer, perhaps a month or two more

niallo27

Cina wrote: »

They're not overhwhelmed because we went into lockdown.

Have you seen Italy? Or the US? Prime examples of what happens when countries didn't do what we did early enough.

The problem is that people like you see the lower death rates and assume that means the virus isn't actually as deadly as we've been told, despite those low death rates only being there because we've all been under strict f*cking lockdowns. Maybe they do need to open everything up again for a while so you lot can see what will happen if this virus is left unchecked.

Coronoavirus has already been proven to be extremely infectious, with much higher mortality rates than the flu yet you still get people claiming it's not as bad as it's made out to be. mental. It's amazing how the internet brigade seemingly know more than most top scientists and doctors worldwide. Fair play to ye.

Ya but there has to be a middle ground, any doctor is going say shut everything down because from a medical point of view this is the safest thing to, but it is not viable long term. As for the scientists we have a different model coming out every day, debunked and then a new model the following week.

Cork Boy 53

uli84 wrote: »

Really? Who said that the dates could be moved up?

Leo did last week but on the other side of the coin he also stated that some of the start dates for the various phases could be pushed back if the health services find themselves coming under severe pressure as a result of a surge in cases of the virus.

helpful

uli84 wrote: »

Really? Who said that the dates could be moved up?

That was stated in the the roadmap to reopening society and business on page 5 I think.

easypazz

Cina wrote: »

They're not overhwhelmed because we went into lockdown.

Have you seen Italy? Or the US? Prime examples of what happens when countries didn't do what we did early enough.

The problem is that people like you see the lower death rates and assume that means the virus isn't actually as deadly as we've been told, despite those low death rates only being there because we've all been under strict f*cking lockdowns. Maybe they do need to open everything up again for a while so you lot can see what will happen if this virus is left unchecked.

Coronoavirus has already been proven to be extremely infectious, with much higher mortality rates than the flu yet you still get people claiming it's not as bad as it's made out to be. mental. It's amazing how the internet brigade seemingly know more than most top scientists and doctors worldwide. Fair play to ye.

We don't.

We just google "coronavirus Sweden"

stephenjmcd

"The Department of Social Protection will continue to support workers until they go back to work, a government Minister has said.

However, Minister for Employment Affairs and Social Protection, Regina Doherty also warned that the current payments would not sustainable in the long term."

The times and the examiner cover the above quotes this morning, with ministers saying stuff like that you'll see more and more businesses looking to open up well before the current road map allows

easypazz

uli84 wrote: »

Really? Who said that the dates could be moved up?

Written in the plan.

easypazz

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Is ICU overwhelmed? are hospitals overwhelmed? In Ireland - no.

In Wuhan they were, so they build 1600 bed hospital in 11 days.

In UK they turned stadiums and large venues into temporary hospitals/beds 4000 beds in blink of an eye. They are empty now btw and have never been utilised, because coronavirus is just not as deadly or contagious as some people in this thread will make you believe it is. And if you say otherwise, they ll say you have an agenda against 70 year olds...

Wuhan ~11m
London ~14m (metro area)
Dublin ~ 1.4m

If we were overwhelmed like Wuhan then the extra beds needed would be in the hundreds, so between citywest and the private hospitals if this came around again we would be well positioned to deal with it effectively.

uli84

irishgeo wrote: »

The dates for opening up the country are not set in stone. They can be moved up or back.

We been playing it safe from day one and egging on the fear factor but it's seems to be working.

Really? Who said that the dates could be moved up?

Cina

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Is ICU overwhelmed? are hospitals overwhelmed? In Ireland - no.

In Wuhan they were, so they build 1600 bed hospital in 11 days.

In UK they turned stadiums and large venues into temporary hospitals/beds 4000 beds in blink of an eye. They are empty now btw and have never been utilised, because coronavirus is just not as deadly or contagious as some people in this thread will make you believe it is. And if you say otherwise, they ll say you have an agenda against 70 year olds...

They're not overhwhelmed because we went into lockdown.

Have you seen Italy? Or the US? Prime examples of what happens when countries didn't do what we did early enough.

The problem is that people like you see the lower death rates and assume that means the virus isn't actually as deadly as we've been told, despite those low death rates only being there because we've all been under strict f*cking lockdowns. Maybe they do need to open everything up again for a while so you lot can see what will happen if this virus is left unchecked.

Coronoavirus has already been proven to be extremely infectious, with much higher mortality rates than the flu yet you still get people claiming it's not as bad as it's made out to be. mental. It's amazing how the internet brigade seemingly know more than most top scientists and doctors worldwide. Fair play to ye.

Ginger n Lemon

hmmm wrote: »

If you implemented your above plan, and hospital admissions shot up in week 3, you'd have to roll back 2 phases. I would think for many businesses preparing to open, and being shut a few weeks later, would finish them off. It would also hugely damage consumer confidence.

The virus can take up to 14 days to incubate for most people. Hospitalisation is typically around 7 days later - that's where the 3 weeks comes from.

By doing this in 3 week phases, we will know exactly which group of changes have caused a rise in the number of cases, and we hopefully only have to roll back one phase at most.

Well, if you do Leo's plan and we gradually, slowly open up, we will have plenty of consumer confidence. And no businesses for those consumers to go to except for large shops or Amazon.

hmmm

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

In UK they turned stadiums and large venues into temporary hospitals/beds 4000 beds in blink of an eye. They are empty now btw and have never been utilised, because coronavirus is just not as deadly or contagious as some people in this thread will make you believe it is. And if you say otherwise, they ll say you have an agenda against 70 year olds...

Completely wrong. This virus is around 3 times more infectious than the Flu.

The actions we have taken have slowed the spread - without those actions we would have been a Wuhan, Iran or Ecuador.

If you're going to look for restrictions to be lifted, you need to at least live in reality when proposing what should be done first.

iamwhoiam

expectationlost wrote: »

they think more of that cohort will die, its not about looking good.

anyway they allowed for the advise not to be taken in their letter https://assets.gov.ie/73788/5d0c9cc4619c4f59877bf3f6e7a14afb.pdf

There would be many deaths apart from Covid if they were to cocoon until August .

_Kaiser_

hmmm wrote: »

Your big plan is instead of telling people what they should be doing in the face of a new pandemic, you're going to tell them to use "cop on" and "common sense"?

OK.

Yep because as is increasingly evident, the response and measures (while appropriate initially) is now increasingly disproportionate to the level of risk that exists - risk that can be managed separately while allowing the majority to get back to the essential activities they and a country depend on.

I'm not buying the hysteria and "think of the children" style hyperbole. Nor am I particularly interested in listening to the lockdown police online who seem to be revelling in what would normally be restricted to twitter ranting and trying to shut down discussions about "controversial" topics otherwise

Gynoid

ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »

Some of the stuff on here is ridiculous. A coup today, yesterday a poster compared the current government to the nazis and others have classified us as a police state.

Surely people aren't serious with this stuff?

Hahaha yes

I visit this thread to give my eyebrows some exercise.

irishgeo

The dates for opening up the country are not set in stone. They can be moved up or back.

We been playing it safe from day one and egging on the fear factor but it's seems to be working.

[Deleted User]

bloodless_coup wrote: »

NPHET have lost the run of themselves. This is a coup!

NPHET recommended over 70's to remain in until August, cabinet rejected it and did not include in guidance - great coup

Keyzer

road_high wrote: »

I agree very much - CJH was before my time but very much the anthesis of the “woke” brigade of which Leo would be a poster child. He’d have used his bloody common sense in tandem with the economic realities

Lol...

Utterly ridiculous comment. You clearly have no idea what you're talking about.

CJH would have sold the PPE back his own government with a 1000% margin making a fortune for himself.

Cork Boy 53

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

How about this?

"OK folks, here's the facts. This is a serious situation where you are at a very real risk of becoming sick or even dying in some cases. But thankfully those cases are very rare overall and can be reduced further by taking precautions such as social distancing, increased hygiene and using common sense.

If you have an underlying illness, are over 70, or worried about your own situation, do contact your family GP for advice. It may in those cases be better to limit outside interactions entirely or unless absolutely necessary.
However, the good news is that the vast majority of people are not at high risk here. That's not to say you can become complacent - you still need to use cop on, take precautions and avoid unnecessary interactions with the at risk people I mentioned above - but you can move about, work, and interact under those conditions.

Again though, in all cases people need to be careful, use common sense and look after yourselves and others"

Not quite Leo's speechwriter quality but you get the idea

Unfortunately the problem with using the term common sense is that this may not be as common as many would like to think as I know from personal experience.

Ginger n Lemon

Crocked wrote: »

Where are all the highly trained, skilled staff coming from to operate the extra ventilators and manage all the people in those beds you've magic'd up?

Is ICU overwhelmed? are hospitals overwhelmed? In Ireland - no.

In Wuhan they were, so they build 1600 bed hospital in 11 days.

In UK they turned stadiums and large venues into temporary hospitals/beds 4000 beds in blink of an eye. They are empty now btw and have never been utilised, because coronavirus is just not as deadly or contagious as some people in this thread will make you believe it is. And if you say otherwise, they ll say you have an agenda against 70 year olds...

leahyl

Delighted to see my dad heading out for a walk again after 5 weeks at home....he used to go to the local park up until they asked the over 70's to cocoon and happy to see him now able to go again

He doesn't complain but I know he really missed it and it was affecting his mental health, so this will make a huge difference to him.