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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

I agree that when the chips were down Ireland helped the UK out of the hole they had dug for themselves.If the UK leaves I would much rather it was on friendly terms with Ireland who are Britain's closest friend(which the UK government could see if they removed the scales from their eyes!)

Maybe if the language changed and we had a humbler approach from the UK, they could stay 'friends' with everyone.

Language like the 'EU refusing to budge' etc, when the facts are they budged several times.

theological

RobMc59 wrote: »

Both sides have made concessions ,which is good if you want the UK to leave.
If the EU had refused to budge as they have constantly said then the UK would have been faced with the prospect of no deal or revoke imo No one wanted a no deal crash out,it was just a threat used against the EU which appears to have worked.
Does this deal really suit anyone?As a British person I'm disappointed and judging from the reaction on this forum the general Irish consensus is its disappointing.

This is a good compromise. It provides democratic input from Northern Ireland into their own destiny. It allows for the UK to have a looser relationship with the European Union, and it allows for the UK to take control of its own trade policy and borders.

I'm an Irish person who thinks this is a good deal which should go through tomorrow if parliament has any sense. We've had 3 years of this dragging on, time to get it finished.

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don't care what the DUP think tbh,I had hoped the EU had pushed Johnson into a corner which would have led to his downfall,this deal allows him to remain in power which isn't good for anyone-imagine him and trump scheming together-it doesn't bear thinking about!

This deal ultimately isn't about Johnson or the DUP. It is about Britain's future, Ireland's future and the future of the EU.

Corbyn doesn't oppose this deal because he could do better. He opposes it because he wants to get into government. A self serving reason, not for the national interest. In this article I linked to already, it says basically as much.

“If Boris Johnson can go into an election as the man who delivered Brexit, we will be in serious trouble. It will be the Tories, not supportive Labour MPs, that reap the electoral rewards of any such deal. They will in effect be signing up to their own political demise.

A number of Labour MP's will defy him. Probably in Leave constituencies like Gloria De Piero, Sarah Chapman, and Caroline Flint, plus Labour Brexiteers.

Mech1

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's very clever and very accurate. Comes from a Greek fable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Woodcutter_and_the_Trees

A Man came into a forest, and made a petition to the Trees to provide him a handle for his axe.

The Trees consented to his request, and gave him a young ash-tree.

No sooner had the man fitted from it a new handle to his axe, than he began to use it, and quickly felled with his strokes the noblest giants of the forest.

An old oak, lamenting when too late the destruction of his companions, said to a neighboring cedar:

"The first step has lost us all. If we had not given up the rights of the ash, we might yet have retained our own privileges and have stood for ages."

J Mysterio

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

They may abstain

Sammy was insisting they would vote against.

road_high

RobMc59 wrote: »

I agree that when the chips were down Ireland helped the UK out of the hole they had dug for themselves.If the UK leaves I would much rather it was on friendly terms with Ireland who are Britain's closest friend(which the UK government could see if they removed the scales from their eyes!)

The Irish are far better friends to the UK and English than those deluded idiots north of the border in the DUP. I think the major diplomatic offensive of the past few weeks went a long way to ensuring GB support of the Irish position re hard border etc.
BoJo and co are only human too and will respond to reasonable discussions and mutually beneficial arrangements rather than the constant No No No sour pusses the DUP push out. Even Rees Mogg appears to have grown weary of them.

Professor Moriarty

Whatever happened to all of those ERG MPs who said they would follow the DUP's lead? It's almost as if they were just using the DUP as cover.

road_high

J Mysterio wrote: »

Sammy was insisting they would vote against.

I hope they do- it will pour petrol on and set a match to any morsel of political capital capital and goodwill the Dinosaurs thought they might have had in Westminister. Brexiters in England want Brexit far far more than they want these spongers hanging like nooses around the UK's neck.

Strazdas

road_high wrote: »

The Irish are far better friends to the UK and English than those deluded idiots north of the border in the DUP. I think the major diplomatic offensive of the past few weeks went a long way to ensuring GB support of the Irish position re hard border etc.
BoJo and co are only human too and will respond to reasonable discussions and mutually beneficial arrangements rather than the constant No No No sour pusses the DUP push out. Even Rees Mogg appears to have grown weary of them.

Several journalists have said the relationship between Johnson and Varadkar is surprisingly good (and this had not been anticipated).

road_high

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Whatever happened to all of those ERG MPs who said they would follow the DUP's lead? It's almost as if they were just using the DUP as cover.

Well Rees Mogg was speaking earlier proclaiming what an excellent deal this for the North in particular- so when the hardest of hard brexiters is saying that then you know you're goosed.

Professor Moriarty

road_high wrote: »

Well Rees Mogg was speaking earlier proclaiming what an excellent deal this for the North in particular- so when the hardest of hard brexiters is saying that then you know you're goosed.

Yes. They are friendless now.

J Mysterio

road_high wrote: »

I hope they do- it will pour petrol on and set a match to any morsel of political capital capital and goodwill the Dinosaurs thought they might have had in Westminister. Brexiters in England want Brexit far far more than they want these spongers hanging like nooses around the UK's neck.

I would hope they abstain personally.

I know this is not a good deal for the UK, but it seems alright for Ireland on balance, and I want some forward momentum to a resolution at this point. Once the arrangements RE Ireland are in place, the UK can do what they want - spend 10 years in trade negotiations/ come crawling back/ whatever.

road_high

Strazdas wrote: »

Several journalists have said the relationship between Johnson and Varadkar is surprisingly good (and this had not been anticipated).

It's obvious on TV- the relationship is warm, friendly, calm- almost like old friends. A lot more relaxed than with T May.
This is how business is done- not by insulting and ignoring one another. Reynolds and Major, Ahern and Blair all had good relationships and things got done.
I wasn't very favourable towards BoJo either but starting to quite like his charm now. He comes across as really quite personable. It pays to be likeable in politics.

Kermit.de.frog

Leo Varadkar reassures the unionist people that they will be allowed post their letters in red letter boxes.

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsNI/status/1185204120946462724

Nigel Dodds issued an ENTIRE statement! (no really, he did) :eek:

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1185202527895261189

road_high

J Mysterio wrote: »

I would hope they abstain personally.

I know this is not a good deal for the UK, but it seems alright for Ireland on balance, and I want some forward momentum to a resolution at this point. Once the arrangements RE Ireland are in place, the UK can do what they want - spend 10 years in trade negotiations/ come crawling back/ whatever.

Yes I agree with you- ideally would like to see the DUP vote against this and it gets carried in spite of them- petty I know but they really deserve it at this stage- That would be the ultimate knife in the stomach for them.

CelticRambler

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Lord Kilcooney was on Radio Ulster Talkback at lunchtime and pointed out that this was the first step to a United Ireland as over time the NI companies will find trading with EU easier than into GB and vice versa. Hence gradual alignment within the island and over time unification becomes more likely. He also made a point about VAT issues (can't remember the issue but I think it was if GB lowered its rate to below EU rate, then NI companies would be disadvantaged.

Interestingly, an economist who spoke next agreed with his analysis of the deal.

<snip>

On his point on VAT I thought NI companies applied for a rebate to the UK gov if the EU VAT rate is greater than the GB VAT rate? And the other way?

Glad to see some people with "weight" behind them see things the same way I described on here last night. There's very little in this duality that is economically advantageous for NI, and even less that strengthens the Union - or even maintains the current relationship.

Rebates can be applied for, but it's one more reason not to do business with the territory. Not when there are other options.

FrancieBrady

road_high wrote: »

Yes I agree with you- ideally would like to see the DUP vote against this and it gets carried in spite of them- petty I know but they really deserve it at this stage- That would be the ultimate knife in the stomach for them.

If it fails they will be trumpeting that it is because the UK cares about the 'Union' with them, when it will in fact be about other political jockeying altogether.

This will be the 4th? time a PM has attempted to sell them out for their own expediency.

road_high

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Leo Varadkar reassures the unionist people that they will be allowed post their letters in red letter boxes.

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsNI/status/1185204120946462724

Nigel Dodds issued an ENTIRE statement! (no really, he did) :eek:

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1185202527895261189

Wonder was Leo just stirring the pot with them now?
Red post boxes. Sweet jesus. But for how long? Royal Mail could decide to abandon the place. Still very old ER ones around Kilkenny ....painted green

FrancieBrady

road_high wrote: »

Wonder was Leo just stirring the pot with them now?
Red post boxes. Sweet jesus. But for how long? Royal Mail could decide to abandon the place. Still very old ER ones around Kilkenny ....painted green

It was like saying the 'sky will still be blue tomorrow' or 'the sun will still rise tomorrow'.
Dodds just took it literally to have a rant. Sanctimonious old nonsense.

road_high

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If it fails they will be trumpeting that it is because the UK cares about the 'Union' with them, when it will in fact be about other political jockeying altogether.

This will be the 4th? time a PM has attempted to sell them out for their own expediency.

Who exactly? Labour, the SNP? There's clutching at straws and that. Tomorrows vote is all about Leave vs Remain in the UK parliament. NI is an irrelevant side show.

RobMc59

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If it fails they will be trumpeting that it is because the UK cares about the 'Union' with them, when it will in fact be about other political jockeying altogether.

This will be the 4th? time a PM has attempted to sell them out for their own expediency.

The UK does care about the Union,just not the DUP version of a Union..:rolleyes:

RobMc59

road_high wrote: »

Wonder was Leo just stirring the pot with them now?
Red post boxes. Sweet jesus. But for how long? Royal Mail could decide to abandon the place. Still very old ER ones around Kilkenny ....painted green

I`m pretty sure I saw pre-ER green ones in Waterford or Cork back in the 80`s

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

The UK does care about the Union,just not the DUP version of a Union..:rolleyes:

The underlying reason for the chaos and failure of it's politics is that the fault lines of the UK have become exposed - it's essentially English-centric (meaning select parts of England) nature. Nothing matters all that much and in diminishing degrees of importance outside those parts.

Enzokk

Varta wrote: »

Labour needs an upheaval. Corbyn and his followers are dinosaurs, there is no place for them in the 21st century. The working class would be better represented if labour were to come out of the 1970s. I don't believe the Lib Dems will increase that much and in the election following the next one, providing Labour has sorted itself out, the Lib Dems will just about disappear.

Your assumption is that Labour takes a position that people will believe. They will only do this if someone like Starmer becomes the next leader who has been a staunch Remainer, otherwise the Lib Dems will take votes from Labour. They will take votes from them from those that voted Remain, the 16 million voters that will see how Labour leadership has abdicated responsibility by asking about anything other than Brexit during PMQ's thus signalling their ambivalence towards Brexit and then by allowing Brexit to happen by having their MP's be the deciding votes to allow Brexit.

You can see it once Swinson became leader of the Lib Dems and the attack dogs was out looking at her voting record. Instead of going after the Tories they knew where the biggest threat was and it wasn't the Tories but the Lib Dems.

Either way, I hope we never find out who is right in this scenario as it will be very bad for the UK if this deal gets through tomorrow.

RobMc59 wrote: »

The UK does care about the Union,just not the DUP version of a Union..:rolleyes:

By the Uk I assume you must mean the government, and they don't care about the Union, why else would they have had the ERG and DUP for updates on Brexit but not the Scottish or Welsh Governments for updates?

Strazdas

RobMc59 wrote: »

I`m pretty sure I saw pre-ER green ones in Waterford or Cork back in the 80`s

I've seen several British ones around Dublin still in use - usually with George V or Edward VII on them.

murphyme2010

Strazdas wrote: »

I've seen several British ones around Dublin still in use - usually with George V or Edward VII on them.

There's a Victorian one on the Ballinteer Road

FrancieBrady

Strazdas wrote: »

I've seen several British ones around Dublin still in use - usually with George V or Edward VII on them.

Slap of red paint and they might take us back?

A Dub in Glasgo

The thread by Faisal Islam is the reason Labour should be whipping and voting against this deal

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1185182594566111232

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1185182594566111232.html

Capt'n Midnight

farmchoice wrote: »

we are now to call it the northern Irish protocol.

Or maybe "Ulster protocol" if using the same words as themmums would stick in your throat.

Akrasia wrote: »

There's a whopping big moat between NI and the UK. Putting a customs border in the Irish sea was always the most sensible thing to do given that there are requirements for security checks getting on boats and airplanes anyway

And the phytosanctions.
Right now any farm machinery from GB that isn't spotlessly clean goes back on the next ferry.

sliabh 1956 wrote: »

Listening to SoR If what Coveney says is correct the DUP are so blinded by their hatred of all things Republic is quite scary. Imagine the mayhem they would create if there ever was a united Ireland

Here's the thing. They are less toxic to FF and FG than SF are.

Play their cards right and they could do quite well in a UI.

Of course that would require looking further ahead than the next election. And having being bought stay bought.

Tomorrow will be interesting for their future.

Also will tomorrow be deal agreed pending a referendum ?
Amendments are fun.
Popcorn time.

Kermit.de.frog

What time do events kick off tomorrow? (not the rugby, the politics)

road_high

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yes. They are friendless now.

Not sure the hardcore Tories were ever their “friends”- more like useful idiots they could abandon when the time was opportune and they outlived their usefulness. Which is what happened. This is just 10 MPs out of nearly 700 I think so the significance was overplayed only by virtue of the arithmetic.
There’ll be lots of fluffy words still but no substance