Top Christmas Day TV-Mrs Brown's Boys

costadeldole · 21-12-2014 11:45pm #1

Top Christmas Day TV-Mrs Brown's Boys.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/special-bets/market?id=1.116303985
I currently have 2500 Euro on at odds of 1/1 (2.0) with Betfair.com
It was 1.1m clear last year even with the new Doctor in Dr Who (causing a 5 minute peak of 10.2m). Even with Danny Dyer coming into EastEnders it still suffered a 1.6m slump on the previous year. With the Lucy Beale murderer not being revealed until February 2015 (on the 30th anniversary), any chance of an upset from EastEnders?
I reckon Mrs Brown's Boys is looking at 10m this year. What gives it the edge over EastEnders is its huge popularity in Scotland.
So far 17,000 Euro has been matched on this market, with 10,000 Euro on Mrs Brown's Boys.

Here are last years statistics:

Overall Top Ten Shows on Christmas Day (not inc +1 channels)

1. 9.30pm: Mrs Brown’s Boys – BBC One - 9.4m / 35.5%

2. 7.30pm: Doctor Who – BBC One - 8.3m / 30.7% (5min peak: 10.2m)

3. 7.30pm: Coronation Street – ITV1 - 7.9m / 29.3%

4. 8.30pm: EastEnders – BBC One - 7.8m / 29%

5. 5.00pm: Strictly Come Dancing – BBC One - 7.3m / 35.4%

6. 6.15pm: Call The Midwife – BBC One - 7.1m / 30.1%

7. 8.30 pm: Downton Abbey – ITV1 - 6.6m / 25.4%

8. 3.20pm: Toy Story 3 - BBC One - 6.3m / 38.9%

9. 3.00pm: The Queen's Speech - BBC One - 5.7m / 36.2%

9. 7.15pm: ITV1 News - ITV1 - 5.7m / 23.5%

10. 3.10pm: BBC One News - BBC One - 5.6m / 37.4%

the whole year inn · 22-12-2014 11:28pm

costadeldole wrote: »

Top Christmas Day TV-Mrs Brown's Boys.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/special-bets/market?id=1.116303985
I currently have 2500 Euro on at odds of 1/1 (2.0) with Betfair.com
It was 1.1m clear last year even with the new Doctor in Dr Who (causing a 5 minute peak of 10.2m). Even with Danny Dyer coming into EastEnders it still suffered a 1.6m slump on the previous year. With the Lucy Beale murderer not being revealed until February 2015 (on the 30th anniversary), any chance of an upset from EastEnders?
I reckon Mrs Brown's Boys is looking at 10m this year. What gives it the edge over EastEnders is its huge popularity in Scotland.
So far 17,000 Euro has been matched on this market, with 10,000 Euro on Mrs Brown's Boys.

Here are last years statistics:

Overall Top Ten Shows on Christmas Day (not inc +1 channels)

1. 9.30pm: Mrs Brown’s Boys – BBC One - 9.4m / 35.5%

2. 7.30pm: Doctor Who – BBC One - 8.3m / 30.7% (5min peak: 10.2m)

3. 7.30pm: Coronation Street – ITV1 - 7.9m / 29.3%

4. 8.30pm: EastEnders – BBC One - 7.8m / 29%

5. 5.00pm: Strictly Come Dancing – BBC One - 7.3m / 35.4%

6. 6.15pm: Call The Midwife – BBC One - 7.1m / 30.1%

7. 8.30 pm: Downton Abbey – ITV1 - 6.6m / 25.4%

8. 3.20pm: Toy Story 3 - BBC One - 6.3m / 38.9%

9. 3.00pm: The Queen's Speech - BBC One - 5.7m / 36.2%

9. 7.15pm: ITV1 News - ITV1 - 5.7m / 23.5%

10. 3.10pm: BBC One News - BBC One - 5.6m / 37.4%

Yea with the movie out and that done very well here and England and he just won an comedy award this looks like a solid bet!

costadeldole · 22-12-2014 11:42pm

the whole year inn wrote: »

Yea with the movie out and that done very well here and England and he just won an comedy award this looks like a solid bet!

I was thinking the movie would boost the TV ratings myself.
Also the later start time of 10.00pm this year would mean more viewers, as it doesn't clash with any of the big soaps during the day.
I think the only threat would be if EastEnders were revealing Lucy Beale's murderer, but as that's not happening until February I reckon their ratings will slump even more this year.

the whole year inn · 23-12-2014 12:56pm

costadeldole wrote: »

I was thinking the movie would boost the TV ratings myself.
Also the later start time of 10.00pm this year would mean more viewers, as it doesn't clash with any of the big soaps during the day.
I think the only threat would be if EastEnders were revealing Lucy Beale's murderer, but as that's not happening until February I reckon their ratings will slump even more this year.

How do we figure out the results,when are they released?

costadeldole · 23-12-2014 1:24pm

the whole year inn wrote: »

How do we figure out the results,when are they released?

BARB do the official ratings overnight, and publish them online but that wont be until 5th January. However most of the news sites; such as the Guardian and BBC will publish the results St Stephen's day.

It will be on their Twitter page St Stephen's day 9.30am so I am using that:

https://twitter.com/tvratingsuk

The online Bookies all have BARB accounts anyway, so as soon as the results are sent to them they will be settling online bets (usually this is 9.30am after the overnight ratings are in).

Currently there is 19,000 bet on the market with 11,000 of it on Mrs Brown's Boys. Coral had an online bet for the Queen announcing her abdication in her speech this year, but its pre-recorded and this was rubbished by a Palace insider. So Coral were forced to remove the bets on her abdicating. However this caused some market distortion, as people bet on her speech being more viewed than usual; due to people checking if she is announcing her abdication or not. Her odds are drifting steadily now though, so its an indication people don't believe the rumour and wont be tuning in.
The only threat I can see is EastEnders, but I predict it will follow a similar ratings slump as last year. It dominated the Christmas viewing 5 years straight, until Mrs Brown's Boys was switched from St Stephen's day to Christmas day last year. 9.4m viewers is massive, and will be hard to beat as the big soaps average around 8m usually.

okidoki987 · 23-12-2014 4:02pm

Wouldn't disagree with the logic here.
Based on how it did at the comedy awards, it must be a foregone conclusion?

In the past, Coronation Street was one of the favs, now it's a 66/1 also ran!

costadeldole · 23-12-2014 6:02pm

okidoki987 wrote: »

Wouldn't disagree with the logic here.
Based on how it did at the comedy awards, it must be a foregone conclusion?

In the past, Coronation Street was one of the favs, now it's a 66/1 also ran!

Last year EastEnders was the odds on favourite to win from when the market opened. This was due to it winning the previous 5 years in a row, with only Coronation Street being a threat. They have always gone head to head, but stagger their viewing times to avoid a clash. But it was a shock it slumped 1.6m viewers, and the first time Coronation Street beat them. A further upset was Mrs Brown's Boys winning. I think this year will be Mrs Brown's Boys, then EastEnders, then Dr Who/Coronation Street.
What is killing the soaps ratings is more people are viewing them on +1 channels later. So their days of pulling 20m viewers are long gone. 8m is average these days.

fuzzydunlop85 · 23-12-2014 6:21pm

Is there a market for this on pp ?

costadeldole · 23-12-2014 6:23pm

fuzzydunlop85 wrote: »

Is there a market for this on pp ?

Yes, but the odds are better on Betfair.

Here is a link to cover all the online bookies and their odds on the market:

http://www.oddschecker.com/christmas/christmas-day-tv-ratings/top-programme

My advice is to lump on now, as tomorrow the odds will shorten drastically. The market will be suspended midnight on the 25th you see.

Nearly 20,000 on this market now, with nearly 12,000 on Mrs Brown's Boys. That is very telling in itself.

It took me 2 days of trickling on 2,500 to get odds of 2.0, as whenever I tried to lump on it caused market distortion and the odds to plummet.

I had to get 400 (max allowed) on the Betfair sportsmarket, and then 2,100 on the exchange to get average odds of 2.0.

costadeldole · 23-12-2014 6:38pm

Another one I am 100% certain on is; Oscars Best Picture (February 2015) Boyhood.
I have put in a request for Betfair to put a market up on their exchange, as the most I can get on their sportsbook is 1,800 at odds of 1.22.
I am hoping they put it on exchange so I can lump on more as its a dead cert to win.
Its short odds, but I am 100% sure Boyhood will win.
(They currently have Grammy and Golden Globes markets up on their exchange, and usually the Oscars market goes up when the Golden Globes are finished).

Juwwi · 23-12-2014 7:18pm

Costadeldole it seems to be that Betfair will be settling their Top Christmas Day TV program based on "Peak" not "Average"

And the bookies will settle it based on "Average"

So last year on Betfair Dr Who was the winner and Mrs Browns was winner
with bookies.

You might want to check it out.

costadeldole · 23-12-2014 7:32pm

robbie1977 wrote: »

Costadeldole it seems to be that Betfair will be settling their Top Christmas Day TV program based on "Peak" not "Average"

And the bookies will settle it based on "Average"

So last year on Betfair Dr Who was the winner and Mrs Browns was winner
with bookies.

You might want to check it out.

Betfair will be using the BARB overnight (average not peak) figures, not including any +1 (consolidated later) figures. The highest figure would only apply if the programme had more than one show, but they all only have one on the day so average figures apply.
Here are their rules on the market:

Winner - Rules
Event Start Time
25 December 2014, 00:00 (GMT)

Win Only Market

MARKET INFORMATION

For further information please see Rules & Regs.

Which programme will poll the most viewers in the UK on Christmas Day 2014?

This market will be suspended at the stated time. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times.

Please note that this market will be settled based only on overnight BARB figures, as reported following Christmas Day. The settlement of this market will NOT take into consideration any consolidated data viewing figures subsequently released by BARB.

In the case of shows which have more than one episode on Christmas Day, the highest figure of those episodes will count (and not an average or cumulative amount).

All bets stand run or not.

UK wallet
Commission on this market
5% Market Base Rate (minus your discount)
Your Discount Rate explained>

Juwwi · 23-12-2014 7:59pm

In the case of shows which have more than one episode on Christmas Day, the highest figure of those episodes will count (and not an average or cumulative amount).

lf l was you l'd double check as to me that sounds like highest figure could be peak.

costadeldole · 23-12-2014 8:09pm

robbie1977 wrote: »

In the case of shows which have more than one episode on Christmas Day, the highest figure of those episodes will count (and not an average or cumulative amount).

lf l was you l'd double check as to me that sounds like highest figure could be peak.

All the programmes on Christmas day only have one show.

Peak only applies to more than one show, so they take the higher of the two shows as the figure.

Befair will be using the BARB overnight (average) figures the same as all the other bookies. The market will be suspended midnight 25th, and they will settle bets within 24 hours on the 26th. They should get the figures from BARB 9.30am on the 26th.

I confirmed with Betfair today; last year Mrs Brown's Boys was the winner and they settled bets on that basis (9.4m average, not 10.2m 5 minute Dr Who peak).

okidoki987 · 23-12-2014 8:10pm

Just thinking about this today.
Not saying it's wrong but does it sound a bit like McIlory to win SPOTY? :eek:
and we all know where most of us ended up with that one

.

okidoki987 · 23-12-2014 8:13pm

Own up, who's just whacked the Betfair market?
It's gone from 1.89/1.90 to 1.93/1.98 for all of €30 :rolleyes:.

Juwwi · 23-12-2014 8:21pm

costadeldole wrote: »

I confirmed with Betfair today; last year Mrs Brown's Boys was the winner and they settled bets on that basis (9.4m average, not 10.2m 5 minute Dr Who peak).

Cheers that clears it up then.

I checked with both Betfair and Bet365 this evening and both customer services
told me they will settle on "peak figures" .

Just looking at bet365 rules tho l think the customer service advised wrong tonight tho.

I didn't ask what they settled last year on tho never thought of that.

Good luck

costadeldole · 23-12-2014 8:24pm

okidoki987 wrote: »

Own up, who's just whacked the Betfair market?
It's gone from 1.89/1.90 to 1.93/1.98 for all of €30 :rolleyes:.

I have 150 on sportsbook, and 2350 on exchange (multiple bets that average 2.0). What you are seeing is most likely a layer trading in order to get better better odds on a back bet. Often they will lump on an outsider to cause market distortion enough to get better odds on the favourite you see.
It took me 2 days to get 2100 on the exchange without causing market distortion.
I started at 3.0, but by the time I got the last of the 2100 on; the odds were 1.95. So I managed a total average of 2.0.
I was actually considering backing all the others in order to drift the favourites odds to suit me. But I didn't need to in the end, as the Coral fake leak about the Queens's abdication did it all for me anyway.

costadeldole · 23-12-2014 8:35pm

okidoki987 wrote: »

Just thinking about this today.
Not saying it's wrong but does it sound a bit like McIlory to win SPOTY? :eek:
and we all know where most of us ended up with that one .

Upsets can indeed happen on the specials markets, and the favourites don't always win.
With regard to McIlroy, he was trading at 1.1 within the last 5 minutes before market suspension, and Hamilton drifting out to 7.0. McIlory looked to be the dead cert. What caused the upset, was him electing to play for Ireland over the UK; and so he lost the BBC viewer votes as a result. Of course he won the RTE SPOTY for the same reason.

Another example is EastEnders being the odds on favourite to win from the market opening to closing last year. It was 1.1 in the end. A dead cert. Yet it was beaten by Coronation Street, Dr Who, and most shockingly Mrs Brown's Boys. No one could predict the 1.6m ratings slump, as Danny Dyer was expected to boost ratings if anything.
Funny things do happen in the specials markets, such as Ben Haenow winning X Factor even though Fleur East was the odds on favourite to win on the finals night.

The thing is, last year Mrs Brown's Boys was 1.1m clear. And that was before the movie was released, and the comedy award.

If anything the 9.4m last year will be 10m this year due to the later start time of 10.00pm (compared to 9.30pm last year). No clash with the soaps, means more viewers.

I reckon the extra 1.1m came from its popularity in Scotland. You see Coronation Street and EastEnders wouldn't be as popular in Scotland. There is no reason why this wont be repeated this year.

costadeldole · 23-12-2014 8:51pm

robbie1977 wrote: »

Cheers that clears it up then.

I checked with both Betfair and Bet365 this evening and both customer services
told me they will settle on "peak figures" .

Just looking at bet365 rules tho l think the customer service advised wrong tonight tho.

I didn't ask what they settled last year on tho never thought of that.

Good luck

To be honest with you, when you call customer services or use online chat you are usually dealing with someone in a call centre on minimum wage who doesn't know the answer (or the market rules). Usually it gets referred to their supervisor or team leader for an answer. And even then they can get it wrong. The wording is simple in the rules; 2 shows on the day and they take the highest figure of the 2. 1 show and they take that shows figure.
BARB will only be producing one set of overnight figures on the 25th, and that will be the average figures that all the bookies and media use.
You wont have one bookie using the peak figure and another using the average despite what they might say. Everyone will be using the BARB overnight (average) figures.
Later on BARB produce another set of figures for the 5th of January on the website. This is the cumulative, total including +1 figures.
In any case, there wont be a 5 minute 10.2m upset peak from Dr Who this year (as that was due to the new Doctor being revealed).
If anything, Mrs Brown's Boys will win both peak and average ratings figures this year.
Often people understand; highest average figure to mean the same as peak you see. And that's where the confusion comes in. To them it means peak.

the whole year inn · 24-12-2014 7:05am

Odds into 4/5 have a bit on this ,I think it has a good chance of winning, the movie was massive and he won the comedy award so I think the odds should be allot shorter and went with it!

montyrebel · 24-12-2014 9:58am

have paddy pulled the market o this, cant find it anywhere?

if it is still up can someone link it for me

costadeldole · 24-12-2014 4:07pm

montyrebel wrote: »

have paddy pulled the market o this, cant find it anywhere?

if it is still up can someone link it for me

Yes, they have pulled the market. Bet365; Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, Bwin, and Betfair, are still live markets.

It will be live on Betfair (exchange and sportsbook) until midnight Christmas day.

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/special-bets/market?id=1.116303985&mpch=ads&rfr=63

Click on this link and it will show all the bookies that still have a market up for it, and their odds (Betfair are best odds).

http://www.oddschecker.com/christmas/christmas-day-tv-ratings/top-programme

costadeldole · 24-12-2014 4:09pm

robbie1977 wrote: »

Costadeldole it seems to be that Betfair will be settling their Top Christmas Day TV program based on "Peak" not "Average"

And the bookies will settle it based on "Average"

So last year on Betfair Dr Who was the winner and Mrs Browns was winner
with bookies.

You might want to check it out.

I just received the following email from Betfair. I thought it would be good to get it in writing that they will be using average not peak BARB viewing figures; just to be safe.

Hi John,

Thanks for getting in touch.

We spoke regarding the "Top Christmas Day TV 2014 - Winner" and we can confirm for you that we settled using the BARB Average figures. Also, last year's winner was "Mrs Brown's Boys".

Let me know if there’s anything else I can help with. Or maybe our FAQs will come in handy?

We love to tweet too; find us @BetfairHelpdesk.

Thanks,

Luke Sammut

Helpdesk Tel: 0344 871 0000
Ireland Tel: 1800 944 000
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International: +44 203 059 8888

For info on all our current promotions, click here: http://www.betfair.com/promotions

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costadeldole · 24-12-2014 4:25pm

the whole year inn wrote: »

Odds into 4/5 have a bit on this ,I think it has a good chance of winning, the movie was massive and he won the comedy award so I think the odds should be allot shorter and went with it!

22,000 on this market now, with 13,000 on Mrs Brown's Boys. Odds of 1.62 currently.

The odds are drifting massively on the Queen's speech now (despite the fake Coral leak). And also on Dr Who, which beat EastEnders and Coronation Street last year due to the new Doctor being revealed.

I reckon the odds on Mrs Brown's Boys will shorten massively today to around 1.5 or even less as more money its lumped on. Paddypower have pulled their market, so more will be getting lumped on Betfair.

The market will stay live tomorrow on Betfair until it is suspended midnight.
By the end it will be 1.1 odds on to win.

One other factor to consider is the mild weather forecast for tomorrow. This drastically affects viewing ratings. On mild Christmas days families go out for a walk more, and the soaps ratings plummet. On colder days they stay in to watch them. So that's good for Mrs Brown's Boys on at 10.00pm; most people will be watching EastEnders, Coronation Street, on +1 channels and those viewing figures aren't included by BARB.

I reckon we are looking at 10m for Mrs Brown's Boys, then around 8m each for Dr Who, Coronation Street, EastEnders.

The Queen's speech usually pulls around 6m, and that will be up this year due to some people still being curious to check out the Coral fake rumour about her abdication. But even if its boosted to 8m, Mrs Brown's Boys will still be clear, and clear by a long way. This isn't going to be tight and come down to the 100,000's. We are talking 1m+ clear.

costadeldole · 24-12-2014 4:31pm

The BARB ratings should be published on Twitter 9.30am St Stephen's day.

https://twitter.com/tvratingsuk

Quality analysis of last years figures:

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2013/dec/26/christmas-viewing-figures-mrs-browns-boys

The following link covers the market distortion (and massive money lumped on) caused by the fake Coral leak about the Queen's abdication. Many people saw the high odds on the Queen's speech and lumped on; figuring it would be most viewed to see if she was abdicating. But its since been rubbished and now her odds are drifting massively; following Coral pulling the market. I reckon Coral did it deliberately as a PR stunt to increase traffic to their site, and market volume betting on a false favourite.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/palace-denies-queens-abdication-rumours-after-coral-bookmaker-suspends-betting-on-her-standing-down-in-christmas-speech-9931306.html

costadeldole · 25-12-2014 1:01am

Market suspended on Betfair.
€23,661 total bet on the market.
€13,764 on Mrs Brown's Boys.
The odds were 1.7 at market suspension.
Ladbrokes and Coral's markets are still live if you want to get a bet on.
http://www.oddschecker.com/christmas/christmas-day-tv-ratings/top-programme

costadeldole · 25-12-2014 2:17pm

The market has now been pulled on Ladbrokes.
So its just Coral with a live market now.
The odds are still good value at 1.73
http://sports.coral.co.uk/?action=GoEvCategory&ev_category_id=68

cup of tea · 25-12-2014 3:37pm

Coral offering Eastenders at 2/1, shortest I've seen it so far. Best of luck whoever has backed it, I hopped on the boat yesterday. Seems a good shout on paper.

the whole year inn · 25-12-2014 3:54pm

#ToyStory3 pulled in a strong audience of 4.73m/23.1% to BBC1 at 6.25. Later, #MrsBrownsBoys averaged an impressive 4.26m/26.4% from 10.55.

Does that mean the show last night pulled in 4.73m,was it a repeat or a new episode or am I wrong?

costadeldole · 25-12-2014 6:49pm

the whole year inn wrote: »

#ToyStory3 pulled in a strong audience of 4.73m/23.1% to BBC1 at 6.25. Later, #MrsBrownsBoys averaged an impressive 4.26m/26.4% from 10.55.

Does that mean the show last night pulled in 4.73m,was it a repeat or a new episode or am I wrong?

ToyStory3 4.73m
Mrs Brown's Boys 4.26m
That was a regular episode of Mrs Brown's Boys.
Tonight (10.05pm) is the Christmas special, which should be around 9.5m

Top Christmas Day TV-Mrs Brown's Boys

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