Ken Ring

The theory I am developing with my research is based on a sort of interference pattern that the moon is postulated to cause in the atmosphere, aligned with the earth's magnetic field. As a result of this process, there are apparently a number of "timing lines" that would be longitude lines if they ran north-south, but they tend to run more northwest-southeast from the North Magnetic Pole to the South Magnetic Pole. In the northern hemisphere, you could visualize where these timing lines were by taking a line from west of Iceland through Ireland and France into the central Med, then connecting that to the NMP (which you could locate at 80N 100W for simplicity). Then draw eight more at equal distances as if the sphere of the earth had the north magnetic pole as its north pole.

Actually the system was developed first from North American data which is why I numbered the timing lines from "one" running through the Great Lakes and east coast of the U.S., eastward. This places Ireland near timing line three in the system. Meanwhile timing line two would be just east of Newfoundland.

I have done a lot of research and observation to try to flesh out this theory over more or less the past thirty years (unfortunately not with any research funding so it has gone slower as I needed to work at other things). There are still considerable gaps in my observational experience over eastern Asia but I have become convinced of the reality of the system from timing line 7 in the central Pacific through to timing line 4 in eastern Europe. As to postulated timing lines 5 and 6, these would run through parts of Siberia, China, Japan, etc, and I have less data or observational time invested there.

As to the southern hemisphere connections, they seem to work out as well, with the basic idea being that the timing lines feed across the equator at quite a diagonal and then straighten out more as they head for the south magnetic pole (which is offset somewhat from being exactly opposite the north magnetic pole). This places timing line one from east Africa through the central Indian Ocean; the French antarctic research station at Kerguelen appears to be just east of timing line one. The timing line through Ireland (3) runs across the equator south of India and emerges into the southern westerlies near eastern Australia.

It's an intriguing system because of its non-linear correspondence to lat and long (the meteorological equator is similar to what this predicts, generally slightly south of the equator in the Pacific and north in the Indian Ocean, but an operational model would probably look somewhat refined from a simple nine-wave interference pattern.)

Anyway, you can see that I had already done some observational work (mostly on positions of low pressure centres) to work out where timing line three might be. Malin Head is probably about six hours downstream from it, which should mean that signals are just about coincident with astronomical events there (as most lows form downstream from their upper level support).

I can't guarantee it, but I imagine that Ken Ring has found some if not all of these factors and worked them into his forecasting. He may be ahead of me in terms of finding successful analogues. However, whether or not he does, I do not think the Moon is the only player in this system. I also use the timing lines to track what are postulated to be "atmospheric components" of solar system magnetic field sectors. For whatever reason (probably the variable strength of the geomagnetic field) this system works from the premise that when the earth is in a field sector, the effect shows up over timing line one (in eastern North America). The directional sense of this theory is that as the earth moves through field sectors, the effects move eastward. Therefore, any effects noted on timing line three would be (approximately) 80 degrees behind the earth in the solar system and falling further behind unlss they are retrograde in which case they are catching up to the earth and moving west.

You can see how a system like this could evolve into a long-range forecasting system but my numerical analysis has (rather frustratingly) yielded so many distinct components to this model that while correlation is starting to become encouraging, monthly or seasonal forecast accuracy has a long way to go yet.

As I have been working on this pretty much continuously (when possible) for most of my adult lifetime, I don't know if I am going to get it to some point where I can usefully pass it on soon (as I am now 60 and change and could drop off who knows when) but I have established some working contacts with one or two people a generation younger to put them through the same intellectual torture that I have given myself over this time frame.

I understand that Ken Ring is also quite a crusty character and believe me, this sort of research will try the patience of just about anyone, there are many leads and also many dead ends, and the scale of the research challenge is clearly enormous.

I will keep working on this winter pressure series until I can show the results in a week or so. As I believe was explained earlier, I theorize that these waves would decouple into two or three separate series after late January and the summer analogue of reinforced waves might be much less impressive since the storm track then runs further from Ireland (a study of pressure in western Iceland might show similar results).

I've hinted therefore that the full and new moon are not the only lunar "events" that are postulated to cause low pressure on the timing lines. The two major "alternates" happen to fall at full and new moon in late December and are not far separated from them any time from early December to late January. This is why I have used a data set that starts seven days before the full moon in the time period Nov 16 to Dec 14.

Last note here, there is a further complication that arose from detailed study of data from the Great Lakes region (my data base is extensive for Toronto which runs 1840-present). That complication is that timing lines are seen to oscillate east-west over a certain amplitude (about half a wavelength) in ways that may be predictable ... and this may explain a scatter of data or events concerning the exact time when low pressure crosses any given timing line. So this study is not likely to show more than a statistical tendency; individual cases are determined by several other factors.

I've had the odd beer, in fact I had a very odd one last night.

^^^^^
very intresting reading, not that i understand everything, but not to worry

I've finished the data entry and done some analysis on it, which is leading to some other concepts that I want to investigate before I report on it completely.

Also, I think I should start a new thread that is more topical to this research and not have it mixed up in the Ken Ring discussion, which got hijacked by this discussion. So look for a thread in a day or two that will be more suitable for further discussions of this concept of lunar-atmospheric interactions as they apply to Ireland (and specifically Malin Head).

Just to give a few glimpses of what the data show, for the 35 winters ending last winter (1974-75 to 2008-09) I found a regular pulse of atmospheric pressure having a period of about 16 days and an amplitude of about 10 mbs (from troughs of about 1004 mbs to peaks of about 1014 mbs on average), and the troughs coincided with full and new moon although with the longer period, this overlap was best in the late December and January part of the data set (which was designed to cover all December and January data as well as required extra data from late November or early February to keep the data centered on the lunar and not the solar-year calendar).

You'll see these details when I post graphs and more extensive discussions. I also looked at halves of the data for consistency. There was very good correlation from the half of data with the earlier full moon dates and the half with later full moon dates. So the timing of the lunar events in the calendar year does not affect the process noticeably. There was also good correlation of winters with higher overall pressure, with winters of lower overall pressure. In other words, whether it's a blocking pattern or a stormy winter, or just an average one, these pressure waves show up at about the same amplitude, just shifted up or down with the overall pressure trend.

Overall, I concluded that there was a significant process going on in the atmosphere to cause a peak of storminess around these winter full and new moons. There was a tendency to higher pressure especially in the period just before the January new moon, which is a time where the moon moves south across the equator and towards its "southern maximum declination" -- this pressure peak rapidly gives way to a trough at the time of the January new moon (I can say January new moon because the range of possible dates given the setup of my data is about 31 Dec to 30 Jan).

As to the longer cycle of 16 days, this may be explained by some offset process that a longer series of data covering the whole year would reveal, or it may be due to a gradual retrograde annual pressure wave embedded in the system. Since the period was expected to be 14.8 days, slowing it by one "pulse" per calendar year would lengthen it to about 16.2 days.

Of course, I have no idea yet what the data would show for other parts of the year. In any case, I would say, wait until I have time to post the whole analysis in a separate thread, and then we could discuss this interesting result further.

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Once I get back to home base I can work on the data file more and get this worked up to a better overall presentation, but I wanted people to have a chance to see these results.

MT, this is quite unintelligible. Are you saying that malin head full and new moons are correlated with low pressures? What statistical tests have you used? What t-value (probablity of findings not due to pure chance) have you found?

Because the hypothesis you started with wasn't confined to winter. It sounds like a theory in search of the evidence.

Octo, the theory being developed has been extensively explained in previous posts. I would expect to see the largest pressure oscillations in mid-winter because of the climatology of western Europe in general. The data shown above apply to the 35 years that were available from the provided link, I would have preferred to use 50 or more, but this is a reasonably long period.

If you took average pressure per day through December and January from the calendar year and not this adjusted lunar timetable, I am sure the patterns would be more random but I will work on that when I get time.

A 10-12 mb pressure oscillation is clearly "significant" -- you mentioned that the literature talked about daily oscillations of less than 0.1 mb, so these are on the order of 100 times as large as what conventional research has decided to be non-significant.

As I discussed earlier, the annual presentation is more complicated than just a standing 14.8 day oscillation; there is another set of equally significant oscillations having a 13.7 day period and these reinforce best in late December and early January, which is why I have selected that period to show the combined effects. I would expect weaker cycles with more of a random appearance through spring and autumn months, but possibly another period of more regular cycles in June and July (when the two different sets overlap again).

One other point, the full moon timing is of course global, there is no such thing as a "Malin Head full moon" -- and these times are derived from published astronomical data for the years concerned.

I certainly can't persuade the atmospheric science community to take these alternate theories seriously, but a pressure oscillation this large over 35 years is not what one would expect if one was testing the alternate hypothesis, "lunar phase has no correlation with winter atmospheric pressure near the main storm track." I would say that on balance, my contention of significance comes out ahead of the conventional reply of no significance after this study.

Hi Ken – Thanks for your reply. To answer your personal questions, well, agnosticism perhaps – and leaning heavily towards disbelief. Perhaps this came across as antagonism. My work certainly overlaps with meteorology.

Although I doubt meteorologists are familiar with your arcane terminology. The description of your method certainly sounds very sciencey on a passing reading – and very elaborate. However it doesn’t correlate with my examinations of your forecasts.

For example, your [URL="here http://www.celbridgetidytowns.com/weather/weather-predict-sept-2009.html"]September forecast for Dublin [/URL]is an exact (decimals rounded off) copy of the Dublin Airport daily data from August 22 to September 20 1991. Exact. So what’s all this about ‘metonic’ and ‘selene’, etc?

Your golfing forecast is also an exact replica of the dry periods of18 years and 10 days previously. Erick Brenstrum of the NZ Met Office has pointed out that you previously took NZ weather maps and tippexed out the dates from 18 yrs 10days previously and presented them as your own. It looks obvious this is what you're doing in Ireland also. Although I'm given to understand that in NZ you sometimes you use a period of 17 years and 22 days. What cycle is that?

So your forecast method in fact looks remarkably simple. I think I could do it too. But hey, that’s ok if it works. I mean that.

So, can you show me some kind of evidence that it works? On what basis can we analyse and verify your predictions? What would seem fair to you?

I’m curious about Mercury “close planet movements” – are you saying that mercury effects our weather through gravity also, or is it through some other more ethereal force?

I remain open to persuasion. You assert many things, like “moisture in the air develops into a front 2 days after a node”. If you could point to something in scientific literature to substantiate your claims you might be taken more considerately.

Hi Ken

I've followed a few of your previous fora conversations like netweather, Silly Beliefs and Ski Forums, (isn't google great?) and I've noticed a similar pattern, whereby you label anyone who questions your work to be 'close minded', 'aggressive', 'antagonistic', etc. So I know that you perceive any critical comments to be a personal attack and I’ll desist asking for any analysis of your accuracy, I don’t want to upset you.

Your forecasts interest me because I am a meteorological officer - it is my work and those of my colleagues that you recycle as weather forecasts – so forgive me if I feel a slight ownership of them. I’m a farmer too – you respect farmers, don’t you? People ask me about you and I’m curious too. There’s no doubt you called a few things right, particularly the start of the September dry spell (although you signaled it to end after about 2 weeks, when it actually lasted far longer). So, frequency of Irish September dry spells aside (‘Buchans’ spells), it was a good prediction, Kudos. Your daily max & min temperatures, sunshine and rainfall forecasts are worthless. Btw, I like the rainfall maps, nice graphics. You did forecast a wet summer - although hardly a freak event in Ireland, and you didn’t say how almost record-breaking it would be - but another good call nonetheless.

So – is it just luck? Is it that you make enough forecasts and on the law of averages some of them are bound to come right, and you then just point to the hits and ignore the misses? Or, is there something to it? You seem determined not to find out.

So now we can’t discuss your results, maybe you’d tell me about your method. You put yourself on an equal footing as our Celtic ancestors who built Newgrange – yet I’m sure they wouldn’t do anything as crude as simply copy exactly the weather from 18 years 10 days ago. They were sophisticated builders. You keep saying you have a complex system – but a cursory examination shows you don’t. I know astrologers – it is a beautiful and complex art form (although I disagree about its predictive properties). Your methodology is a sledgehammer and their’s is a tweezers.

From what you’ve told me, you use some kind of hidden mysterious (arbitrary?) method to decide which period to use to copy your forecasts. But you don’t use astrology to predict the weather. You get us, the meteorological services you constantly insult and deride, to do your donkey work for you.

Are all your Irish forecasts for 2010 based on the 18 yr 10 day cycle? If I go into competition and publish a cheaper version, will you sue me?

Ken - A number of points.

• I'm a meteorological officer, not a meteorologist. We work at synoptic weather stations, collecting data - we don't produce forecasts. I represent only myself in this discussion.
• I've looked at about 5 of your forecasts - every one of them was a simple recycling of 18yrs 10days climatalogical data, including your golfing forecast for the winter ahead. A child could do it. Even astrologers should be insulted.
• Relax. I withdraw my threat to compete with your publication and threaten your healthy livelihood.
• As to natural selection - 3 million years of evolution and there's still a sucker born every minute.