Good economic news thread

Godge · 02-04-2014 4:57pm #1

Now that we are at the very least bumping along the bottom rather than falling into a chasm where the economy is concerned, we should probably have a thread that discusses some of the relatively good economic news that appears and whether it represents a trend upwards or a blip in the bumping.

Today we had some Q1 results. First up is the Exchequer Returns:

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0402/606262-exchequer-returns-march/

for the news item

http://www.finance.gov.ie/news-centre/press-releases/end-march-exchequer-returns

for the actual figures.

Quite good news. Tax is higher than last year and higher than expected. Spending is lower than last year and lower than expected. Taken together that means the budget deficit is lower, down from €3.7 bn to €2.4 bn. We are not out of the woods yet but the outlook is positive.

One of the reasons for the improved performance is that less people are on the dole:

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0402/606175-live-register-figures-fall-again-in-march/

http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/lr/liveregistermarch2014/#.UzwylPldW1c

The annual decrease is nearly 34,000 or 8%, the real question is are they taking up jobs? Well, as income tax is up, this may well be the case.

Property prices appear to be on the way up as well,

https://www.daft.ie/report/

but whether this is good or bad news remains to be seen.

All in all, those of us who predicted in the second half of last year that green shoots were appearing and things were about to get better may well be right. Still too early to be definitive about that as the economy is still vulnerable to external shocks and to slack domestic demand.

ardmacha · 02-04-2014 7:55pm

The annual decrease is nearly 34,000 or 8%, the real question is are they taking up jobs? Well, as income tax is up, this may well be the case.

This is a double benefit for the public finances, less dole and more tax.
There were some figures about long term unemployed that were less encouraging.

AlmightyCushion · 02-04-2014 9:59pm

ardmacha wrote: »

This is a double benefit for the public finances, less dole and more tax.
There were some figures about long term unemployed that were less encouraging.

Triple benefit if you count the extra tax generated from their increase in disposable income whether that be through VAT/excise duty/DIRT etc.

Villa05 · 02-04-2014 10:32pm

While a job is great, I heard nonan on the radio saying that the new jobs are low paid (difference between income tax and prsi receipts)

This points to rising house prices and rents being unsustainable.

Lower house prices will be positive for the economy

Good loser · 03-04-2014 12:03am

Heard of five people turning up for a new job a few weeks ago. Only one came back after dinner!

realitykeeper · 03-04-2014 2:56am

The growth in the economy is as a result of the borrowed billions trickling down through society. When it has finish trickling down, the economy will fall back into the abyss, the only difference will be the extra billions the country will owe.

Head The Wall · 03-04-2014 7:48am

2.3 billion deficit per quarter still equals 9.2 billion for the year roughly.

Still not much to write home about considering 14 of 16 departments beat their spending targets. It seems like the targets are not set high enough

everdead.ie · 03-04-2014 7:58am

Head The Wall wrote: »

2.3 billion deficit per quarter still equals 9.2 billion for the year roughly.

Still not much to write home about considering 14 of 16 departments beat their spending targets. It seems like the targets are not set high enough

The last quarter of the year is normally in profit I think Self employed tax returns in October than Christmas spending in December.

Possibly not actually the figures I have found were.

11.5b deficit for 2013

with 7.3b of that up until August which would leave the final quater deficit at 4.2b.

ardmacha · 03-04-2014 9:49am

Still not much to write home about considering 14 of 16 departments beat their spending targets. It seems like the targets are not set high enough

And for the two departments who did not beat their spending targets, presumably in this case the target was too high?

sarumite · 03-04-2014 11:15am

ardmacha wrote: »

And for the two departments who did not beat their spending targets, presumably in this case the target was too high?

I suppose that depends on which of the other two possible outcomes occurred for each of the two departments.

I would say that I would prefer to look at several years of data rather than a single year. If a department is constantly overspending, then either its budget is too low or its financial planning is poor ( or a bit from column A and bit from column

. If it overspends due to a once off payment in a single year, then its probable that that neither a budget nor financial planning problem exists.

Godge · 03-04-2014 12:16pm

realitykeeper wrote: »

The growth in the economy is as a result of the borrowed billions trickling down through society. When it has finish trickling down, the economy will fall back into the abyss, the only difference will be the extra billions the country will owe.

Did you read the links - the budget deficit is coming down. Borrowing is slowing down but unemployment is still coming down. Let's keep a realistic perspective on this.

Head The Wall wrote: »

2.3 billion deficit per quarter still equals 9.2 billion for the year roughly.

Still not much to write home about considering 14 of 16 departments beat their spending targets. It seems like the targets are not set high enough

As others have pointed out there isn't a linear relationship between quarterly deficits and annual deficits.

As for spending there is only one issue of concern - current spending on Health (€55m over budget), haven't we heard this one before.

realitykeeper · 04-04-2014 2:32am

Godge wrote: »

Did you read the links - the budget deficit is coming down. Borrowing is slowing down but unemployment is still coming down. Let's keep a realistic perspective on this.

Large or small, a deficit is still a deficit and every year the country runs a deficit the enormous debt grows even bigger.

Unemployment is coming down because the internal economy has been stimulated with borrowed money. In others words people are buying and selling to each other with the money the country borrowed. Unfortunately, the money still has to be repaid with interest to the foreign entities from which it has been borrowed. Therefore the country will revert to the economic abyss of 2008 but this time it will have even more debt to pay off.

ardmacha · 04-04-2014 1:59pm

realitykeeper wrote: »

Large or small, a deficit is still a deficit and every year the country runs a deficit the enormous debt grows even bigger.

Unemployment is coming down because the internal economy has been stimulated with borrowed money. In others words people are buying and selling to each other with the money the country borrowed. Unfortunately, the money still has to be repaid with interest to the foreign entities from which it has been borrowed. Therefore the country will revert to the economic abyss of 2008 but this time it will have even more debt to pay off.

This is simplistic. The government was borrowing more last year and unemployment was also higher, so any change in unemployment is not caused by borrowing but by other positive forces in the economy (although perhaps supported by ECB measures elsewhere). The money does have to be repaid, but at the lowest interest rates in recent history.

It is modest good news, but good none the less and the Central Bank has a similar opinion

Th biggest threat to Ireland's modest progress is the state of the Eurozone generally.

realitykeeper · 04-04-2014 10:56pm

ardmacha wrote: »

This is simplistic. The government was borrowing more last year and unemployment was also higher, so any change in unemployment is not caused by borrowing but by other positive forces in the economy

It is modest good news, but good none the less and the Central Bank has a similar opinion

Regarding your first point I would say that economies being big cumbersome things take time to respond to stimulus - so that is the explanation, it has nothing to do with "other forces".

I had to laugh at your second point. The central banks across the entire developed world are trying to "talk up" their economies. That is a sure sign of looming catastrophe. I understand your intentions are good but I feel a moral duty to tell people that the policy of stimulus was never going to work. It will end very badly.

SupaNova2 · 05-04-2014 7:04am

realitykeeper wrote: »

I understand your intentions are good but I feel a moral duty to tell people that the policy of stimulus was never going to work. It will end very badly.

It depends what is meant by working. It can be seen as working, if working means kicking the can.

ILikeBananas · 05-04-2014 8:30pm

realitykeeper wrote: »

The growth in the economy is as a result of the borrowed billions trickling down through society. When it has finish trickling down, the economy will fall back into the abyss, the only difference will be the extra billions the country will owe.

I think you're missing the point of the thread. I don't think the OP was issuing a challenge and needed someone to come in and prove them wrong. They're just trying to create a little bit of sunshine in what can otherwise be a very negative sub-forum.

Head The Wall · 09-04-2014 7:41am

Trying being the operative word and seems to be failing as well. I left Ireland in 2011 by choice (I had a job) and don't plan on going back anytime soon.

Place is still in the gutter and whee i see the likes of that working couple getting a big write down and keeping the banks house it makes me even happier that I am not funding the system with my taxes.

Godge · 09-04-2014 3:08pm

Head The Wall wrote: »

Trying being the operative word and seems to be failing as well. I left Ireland in 2011 by choice (I had a job) and don't plan on going back anytime soon.

Place is still in the gutter and whee i see the likes of that working couple getting a big write down and keeping the banks house it makes me even happier that I am not funding the system with my taxes.

More news.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0409/607779-unemployment/

While unemployment went up in the OECD overall, it fell significantly in Ireland as we have seen already in this thread. This means Ireland is performing well compared to the rest of the OECD.

On the other point, the news isn't so good for many of the rest of those with distressed mortgages.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0409/607741-finance-committee/

2,000 - 4,000 PTSB customers face repossession. While that may be necessary from an economic point of view, it is still very distressing for the individuals involved.

Sheldons Brain · 11-04-2014 1:11pm

ESRI get into the good mood music, let's hope their record is better than usual.

In its latest quarterly economic commentary, the ESRI said it expected output and employment growth this year and next to be at least as strong as 2013.

The ESRI concentrates instead on GNP, which it said will grow by 3.5% this year, and 3.7% next year, after a 3.3% rise last year.

This will be driven by an annual increase of 50,000 in the numbers in work and a 10% rise in investment.

Kermit.de.frog · 11-04-2014 1:58pm

A lot of positive news.

Don't know about anyone else but I can sense things are getting better overall even before looking at statistics. Hope it continues.

Sierra Oscar · 11-04-2014 3:10pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Don't know about anyone else but I can sense things are getting better overall even before looking at statistics. Hope it continues.

Yep, I think there is a feeling of recovery in Dublin but it is fragile elsewhere to say the least. The biggest danger is that we will have a two speed economy in Ireland, the Dublin economy and then the rest of Ireland. Same thing has happened in England with London / South East as compared to everywhere else.

The housing crisis in Dublin would want to be sorted fairly lively though.

where_am_i · 11-04-2014 3:57pm

Godge wrote: »

More news.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0409/607779-unemployment/

While unemployment went up in the OECD overall, it fell significantly in Ireland as we have seen already in this thread. This means Ireland is performing well compared to the rest of the OECD.

On the other point, the news isn't so good for many of the rest of those with distressed mortgages.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0409/607741-finance-committee/

2,000 - 4,000 PTSB customers face repossession. While that may be necessary from an economic point of view, it is still very distressing for the individuals involved.

their are an incredibly low number of reposessions in this country compared to the likes of the uk , up to now it was politically difficult for banks to be seen evicting people , that will have to change however

Godge · 11-04-2014 5:47pm

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

ESRI get into the good mood music, let's hope their record is better than usual.
In its latest quarterly economic commentary, the ESRI said it expected output and employment growth this year and next to be at least as strong as 2013.

The ESRI concentrates instead on GNP, which it said will grow by 3.5% this year, and 3.7% next year, after a 3.3% rise last year.

This will be driven by an annual increase of 50,000 in the numbers in work and a 10% rise in investment.

GNP growth is being driven by the domestic economy and exports. The recovery is hidden in the GDP figures because of the patent cliff effect.

rightwingdub · 11-04-2014 7:02pm

where_am_i wrote: »

their are an incredibly low number of reposessions in this country compared to the likes of the uk , up to now it was politically difficult for banks to be seen evicting people , that will have to change however

I read a quote in the Irish Indo from a few days ago stating that there was only 700 repos in Ireland between the beginning of 2010 up till the end of 2013.

People who are more than 720 days in arrears need to be evicted regardless of whether the properties are buy to let or family homes. I'm fed up of the emotional sentiment that is attached towards repos in this country, It's 2014 not the 19th century.

comongethappy · 11-04-2014 7:28pm

200+ redundancies at Certus (Formerly BOSI) announced today.

rightwingdub · 11-04-2014 7:29pm

comongethappy wrote: »

200+ redundancies at Certus (Formerly BOSI) announced today.

Ouch have you got a link, a mate of mine works in Certus.

comongethappy · 11-04-2014 7:35pm

rightwingdub wrote: »

Ouch have you got a link, a mate of mine works in Certus.

It will probably be in the media on Monday.

I'm gutted, my dept is unaffected, I wouldn't have minded taking some monies & moving on.

rightwingdub · 11-04-2014 7:38pm

comongethappy wrote: »

It will probably be in the media on Monday.

I'm gutted, my dept is unaffected, I wouldn't have minded taking some monies & moving on.

My mate is a Credit Analyst, Is that department effected?

comongethappy · 11-04-2014 8:00pm

rightwingdub wrote: »

My mate is a Credit Analyst, Is that department effected?

Quite possibly.

Obviously teams will retain a few staff, but large areas are being let go.

Fingers crossed for everyone the redundancy package is as good as last time.

rightwingdub · 11-04-2014 8:02pm

comongethappy wrote: »

Quite possibly.

Obviously teams will retain a few staff, but large areas are being let go.

Are the redundancies voluntary or compulsory?

How many people are currently working in Certus?

comongethappy · 11-04-2014 8:05pm

rightwingdub wrote: »

Are the redundancies voluntary or compulsory?

How many people are currently working in Certus?

There are still over 800 staff all told.
There are still offices in cork, sligo, Waterford that will also lose out

It will be voluntary at first..... But if not enough people apply for VR, then the remainder will be compulsory.

ardmacha · 11-04-2014 8:06pm

Godge wrote: »

GNP growth is being driven by the domestic economy and exports. The recovery is hidden in the GDP figures because of the patent cliff effect.

Apparently they are looking at a recalculation of GDP.
In any case, GNP is the one most important to jobs etc.

Looking better, as long as the politicians can be prevented from losing the plot too soon and promising tax cuts and the like. Nobody should be allowed propose any tax cut until they have produced a long term model of government expenditure and revenue in the Irish economy.

rightwingdub · 11-04-2014 8:11pm

comongethappy wrote: »

There are still over 800 staff all told.
There are still offices in cork, sligo, Waterford that will also lose out

It will be voluntary at first..... But if not enough people apply for VR, then the remainder will be compulsory.

Do you think Certus could be closed down in Ireland in a few years time, are the 200+ jobs been outsourced?

comongethappy · 11-04-2014 8:13pm

rightwingdub wrote: »

Do you think Certus could be closed down in Ireland in a few years time, are the 200+ jobs been outsourced?

Long term: Yes.

All we are doing is managing down loan books from Loyds/BOSI.

They tried to acquire new clients but it hasn't worked out & the work is starting to dry up.

rightwingdub · 11-04-2014 8:23pm

comongethappy wrote: »

Long term: Yes.

All we are doing is managing down loan books from Loyds/BOSI.

They tried to acquire new clients but it hasn't worked out & the work is starting to dry up.

Apart for Certus, I wouldn't be surprised if Ulster Bank eventually pulled out of Ireland, aren't they supposed to be laying off a further 1,000 staff.

Taxburden carrier · 11-04-2014 8:26pm

rightwingdub wrote: »

Apart for Certus, I wouldn't be surprised if Ulster Bank eventually pulled out of Ireland, aren't they supposed to be laying off a further 1,000 staff.

Stop talking down the economy;)

rightwingdub · 11-04-2014 8:33pm

Taxburden carrier wrote: »

Stop talking down the economy;)

Absolutely right, I should believe all the latest statements coming from the ESRI at face value

Gumbo · 12-04-2014 12:34am

comongethappy wrote: »

Long term: Yes.

All we are doing is managing down loan books from Loyds/BOSI.

They tried to acquire new clients but it hasn't worked out & the work is starting to dry up.

Tbh, I'm not surprised. I've had to deal,with them as my mortgage is through BoS so all my dealings are with them. Lost out on the sale of my house because of them and this the change to jump into a larger property for minimal payment.

They "claim" to not have received my financial pack!
Sure it took 3 months to review and come to a decision, and by then the offer on my house was well and truly gone.

rightwingdub · 12-04-2014 3:22am

The announcement of 225 job losses at Certus is now on the Irish times Site. According to the article 3 of the 6 regional offices in Galway, Sligo and Waterford will be shut down.

Great redundancy package capped at 143 weeks @8 weeks per year of service. If I were employed with Certus (previously BOSI) and had been there for a number of years, I'd definitely apply for the redundancy package.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/certus-looks-to-cut-225-jobs-from-loan-servicing-business-1.1759498

Phoebas · 12-04-2014 9:40am

comongethappy wrote: »

200+ redundancies at Certus (Formerly BOSI) announced today.

How is that good economic news?

comongethappy · 12-04-2014 4:09pm

Phoebas wrote: »

How is that good economic news?

It isn't.

Though the staff will get a pretty good redundancy payment largely funded from the UK.

So it will pay down a bit of debt or buy a few cars for those affected.

Villa05 · 13-04-2014 11:48am

Alot of this so called good news you really have to question? but this probably takes the biscuit

STATE-OWNED AIB could be worth between "€10bn and €11bn", according to Finance Minister Michael Noonan.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/taxpayers-aib-stake-worth-up-to-11bn-noonan-30180073.html

It would not surprise me if my net worth was greater than AIB's

Is it fact or is all this manipulated to create an illusion

60,000 new jobs, 1/2 of these are self employed - Last throw of the dice of a desperate disillusioned public?

1/2 are in agriculture and fisheries - Reclassification?

Villa05 · 13-04-2014 12:21pm

Villa05 wrote: »

Alot of this so called good news you really have to question? but this probably takes the biscuit

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/taxpayers-aib-stake-worth-up-to-11bn-noonan-30180073.html

It would not surprise me if my net worth was greater than AIB's

A somewhat more balanced analysis from the Journal
http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/readme/michael-noonan-house-prices-damien-kiberd-1410085-Apr2014/

At the heart of this problem is the impossibility of recovering a proportion of the money the banks have already lent in home mortgages and in working capital and property loans to SMEs.
Official Ireland routinely claims that 12 per cent of the mortgages held by owner occupiers are toxic. These are the home loans that are in arrears for more than 90 days. A more brutal analysis of the numbers would show that the true figure for toxic debt is much higher.
If you include loans in arrears for less than 90 days and buy-to-let loans (BTLs) then the number in arrears exceeds 145,000.
Furthermore, almost half of the loans made to SMEs are in some type of difficulty. This chronic incapacity to repay exists despite the fact that base rates in the Eurozone – currently 0.25% – are on the floor.
..........

Many of the restructured loans are not technically categorised as being ‘in arrears’. It’s not possible to be completely precise but if you eliminate double counting there are well in excess of 200,000 mortgages in trouble. And that’s more than a quarter of the mortgage book
............
Pumping up house prices might be the only way to lift the mood among consumers, supporting more jobs in services. That may explain the official tolerance for greater house price inflation. If you feel you may inflate your way out of arrears, out of negative equity, you might start to spend again.
It’s a forlorn hope but it may be the only hope available. Absurd house prices-and the related credit bubble- got us into this problem: the paradox today is that higher house prices are now seen as the possible trigger for recovery.

sock puppet · 13-04-2014 3:13pm

Villa05 wrote: »

A somewhat more balanced analysis from the Journal
http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/readme/michael-noonan-house-prices-damien-kiberd-1410085-Apr2014/

If you were being balanced you wouldn't treat loans less than 90 days in arrears as toxic, since that is the threshold for non performance that the ECB has decided upon. Classifying any loan in arrears as non performing would actually be a very conservative measure.

Godge · 17-04-2014 11:36am

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0417/609417-credit-union-tracker/

"According to the latest tracker by the League, monthly disposable income amongst all adults has increased by €13 since April 2013.

For working adults, disposable income has increased by €20 since April 2013."

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/signs-of-economic-recovery-says-credit-union-body-30194576.html

jmayo · 17-04-2014 12:26pm

Villa05 wrote: »

Alot of this so called good news you really have to question? but this probably takes the biscuit

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/taxpayers-aib-stake-worth-up-to-11bn-noonan-30180073.html

It would not surprise me if my net worth was greater than AIB's

Is it fact or is all this manipulated to create an illusion

60,000 new jobs, 1/2 of these are self employed - Last throw of the dice of a desperate disillusioned public?

1/2 are in agriculture and fisheries - Reclassification?

Ehh if AIB is only worth 10-11 billion then we won't even get back the 20 billion we pumped into it and EBS.
So far something like 19 odd billion is still outstanding.

Villa05 · 17-04-2014 9:22pm

jmayo wrote: »

Ehh if AIB is only worth 10-11 billion then we won't even get back the 20 billion we pumped into it and EBS.
So far something like 19 odd billion is still outstanding.

What value would you apply to a company which made a loss of €1.7 billion in 2013 and double that in 2012

John.Icy · 17-04-2014 11:40pm

Not a huge follower of this forum anymore but I just have to comment on this.

I think it's utterly sad and pathetic that people feel the need to come into this thread, set up to post some good news, and post about redundancies and have it take up the last page or two.

It's totally fine for people to wallow in bad news day after day, but christ, take it somewhere else away from a thread where people are trying to post something other than doom and gloom.

There's reasons why things never move forward in life and its people like that, along with so many, that just prefer to sit around and moan and whine every minute of the day holding things back. What a sad life to live.

18-04-2014 12:32am

John.Icy wrote: »

Not a huge follower of this forum anymore but I just have to comment on this.

I think it's utterly sad and pathetic that people feel the need to come into this thread, set up to post some good news, and post about redundancies and have it take up the last page or two.

It's totally fine for people to wallow in bad news day after day, but christ, take it somewhere else away from a thread where people are trying to post something other than doom and gloom.

There's reasons why things never move forward in life and its people like that, along with so many, that just prefer to sit around and moan and whine every minute of the day holding things back. What a sad life to live.

Ach, don't be worrying. Most of them are youngsters, and I doubt any are women. So that's the majority of the population that we can count out of the doom and gloom brigade.

jmayo · 18-04-2014 2:37pm

John.Icy wrote: »

Not a huge follower of this forum anymore but I just have to comment on this.

I think it's utterly sad and pathetic that people feel the need to come into this thread, set up to post some good news, and post about redundancies and have it take up the last page or two.

It's totally fine for people to wallow in bad news day after day, but christ, take it somewhere else away from a thread where people are trying to post something other than doom and gloom.

There's reasons why things never move forward in life and its people like that, along with so many, that just prefer to sit around and moan and whine every minute of the day holding things back. What a sad life to live.

Is that you patrick neary ?

Yeahh lets have some positive vibes and it will make all the bad sh*t disappear.

jmayo · 18-04-2014 2:39pm

Villa05 wrote: »

What value would you apply to a company which made a loss of €1.7 billion in 2013 and double that in 2012

I am only stating fact that a vlaue of 10-11 billion will still mean we lsot a lot of money on AIB/EBS.

If anything I agree with you that they are really worth less.

Oh wait we can't be saying things like that on this thread, so I am really saying AIB is worth 600 billion as evidenced by the 1% shares actually being sold.

Good economic news thread

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