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Potential SHTF scenarios & tinfoil hat thread (Please read post 1)

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Comments

  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,750 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,485 ✭✭✭✭Khannie




  • Registered Users Posts: 53 ✭✭spynappels


    Tabnabs wrote: »

    Nice folks.

    I'd like to think people here might have a little more compassion, but then again, with some of the comments I've overheard out and about recently, maybe not.

    I know post SHTF, I'd prefer to work with others, pooling skills and resources, and would help all I could without jeopardising my family's survival.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,088 ✭✭✭aaakev




  • Registered Users Posts: 701 ✭✭✭madmaxi




  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,750 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    Boards resident forecaster has issued his winter forecast

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=87053334&postcount=299

    TLDR? Mild, wet and windy, second half of January might bring a flurry or two.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,750 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    ESB Union strike threat rumbles on. This could be our SHTF scenario in the near future, especially seeing as it may happen over the winter months.

    http://www.esbgou.ie/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Letter-16-October-2013.pdf


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,088 ✭✭✭aaakev


    Tabnabs wrote: »
    ESB Union strike threat rumbles on. This could be our SHTF scenario in the near future, especially seeing as it may happen over the winter months.

    http://www.esbgou.ie/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Letter-16-October-2013.pdf
    Will this come in the form of planned blackouts or will it be refusing to do repair work to damaged lines ect?


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,750 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    Planned blackouts is my understanding.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,088 ✭✭✭aaakev


    Hopefully it wont come to that... The ESB could loose support very quickly if they go ahead and something happenes. Imagine an old person dying because they couldnt turn on the heating.....


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,536 ✭✭✭touts


    Brendan Ogle. There's a name that puts a shiver down your spine when you're hoping common sense prevails. There's a reason the average salary in the ESB is 100K+. Bertie knew who not to pick a fight with. But it was always going to blow up when the money ran out.

    Time to check the backup gas drum and gas cooker are both working.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,485 ✭✭✭✭Khannie


    Tabnabs wrote: »
    Planned blackouts is my understanding.

    Does anyone know how this will affect mobile phone towers? I'd assume they have some kind of battery backup.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,750 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    Java is taking the pi$$ out of me on this machine, but if you ask here http://www.askcomreg.ie/about_us/live_support.330.LE.asp I'd imagine you'd get an answer as Comreg are the ones who have a say in this. Google throws up an answer of 8 hours in the States, so it may be that kind of time frame.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 987 ✭✭✭The Glass Key


    Khannie wrote: »
    Does anyone know how this will affect mobile phone towers? I'd assume they have some kind of battery backup.

    I think the problem is more that many of the cell towers rely on other towers to relay the signal, so one area off for the day might only initially affect one mast but if that area stays off any other masts in the chain are going to get cut off.


  • Registered Users Posts: 273 ✭✭Danpad


    For give my ignorance but, (from the Indo) "Workers at ESB are to ballot for industrial action on November 18." Are they saying that the ballot will take place on Nov 18th or they'll ballot workers prior to this date with a view to action starting on the 18th? I'm beginning to wonder if it's actually a moot point though as we now know a ballot is going to take place and that, to me, means it's time to get a fresh bottle of gas in for the BBQ and super ser as I'm not waiting around, hoping they don't vote to strike.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,249 ✭✭✭GY A1


    Danpad wrote: »
    For give my ignorance but, (from the Indo) "Workers at ESB are to ballot for industrial action on November 18." Are they saying that the ballot will take place on Nov 18th or they'll ballot workers prior to this date with a view to action starting on the 18th? I'm beginning to wonder if it's actually a moot point though as we now know a ballot is going to take place and that, to me, means it's time to get a fresh bottle of gas in for the BBQ and super ser as I'm not waiting around, hoping they don't vote to strike.

    from what u say it means the vote by members will be on the 18th,
    the outcome will be afterwards,


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,111 ✭✭✭ShadowFox


    Storm warning for the South of England may or may not effect us http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24654390


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,750 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    There's a thread over on the weather forum http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057066106&page=2 they're watching it closely too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 273 ✭✭Danpad


    Heads up: A 7+ mag earthquake has struck Japan near the Fukishima region.
    Not much news/details about it yet. Here's hoping it's just a very close shave for the (potential kill shot) operation that's going on at the plant at the moment.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 428 ✭✭wolfeye


    Quakes centre very far off the coast of japan

    "It was fairly big, and rattled quite a bit, but nothing fell to the floor or broke. We've had quakes of this magnitude before," Satoshi Mizuno, an official with the Fukushima prefectural government's disaster management department"

    http://www.independent.ie/world-news/asia-pacific/tsunami-alert-at-fukushima-nuclear-plant-after-large-earthquake-29700450.html


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 428 ✭✭wolfeye


    This seems to be comming up on the media every year and the situation looks like it getting worse..

    "They're germs so dangerous the U.S.A's top health official at the Centers for Disease Control describes them as "nightmare" bacteria. That's hyperbolic language for the typically staid institution, but in this case it's warranted, said CDC Director Tom Frieden earlier this year. More formally known as CREs, these "superbugs" resist most antibiotics, spread resistance to other germs and kill roughly half of the people they infect.
    And they're spreading.
    If something isn't done soon, public health officials warn, the world will soon be facing a "post-antibiotic era" meaning, "in effect, an end to modern medicine as we know it. Things as common as strep throat or a child's scratched knee could once again kill," according to Margaret Chan, director general of the World Health Organization. "



    http://www.wskg.org/pbs/frontline-asks-has-age-antibiotics-come-end

    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/health-science-technology/hunting-the-nightmare-bacteria/dr-brad-spellberg-antibiotic-resistance-is-everyones-fault/

    http://www.npr.org/2013/10/22/239247134/antibiotics-cant-keep-up-with-nightmare-superbugs


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 428 ✭✭wolfeye


    Met Eireann have developed a Dispersion modelling system to provide guidance in emergencies related to the dispersion of hazardous materials in the atmosphere.
    Not sure if was mentioned in the weather section of boards.

    Handy to have especially with the new Uk nucleur plant at Hinkley point Somerset going ahead .

    http://www.met.ie/news/display.asp?ID=221&prn=1

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/greenpeace-abandons-hinkley-point-lost-cause-8906372.html


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,111 ✭✭✭ShadowFox


    ShadowFox wrote: »
    Storm warning for the South of England may or may not effect us http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24654390
    Tabnabs wrote: »
    There's a thread over on the weather forum http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057066106&page=2 they're watching it closely too.

    I see Met Eireann finally woke up and gave a weather warning about 4 hours ago on twitter


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 428 ✭✭wolfeye


    More on the Irish Independent today about antibiotic resistant bacteria.

    This will cause big problems in the near future unless they find find/design new antibiotics or other ways to deal with bacterial infections.

    http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/bacteria-invade-even-our-remotest-lakes-29707255.html


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,750 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    One for the Dubs;
    Nightly restrictions on water supply are to be implemented across the entire Dublin region from tonight due to a serious problem at one of the country’s biggest water treatment plants.

    The restrictions will result in both lower water pressures and the “likely” loss of supply, a statement on behalf of Dublin’s four local authorities said last evening.

    The restrictions will be in place from 8pm this evening to 7am tomorrow morning and will “likely” be in place until “at least” Monday. This is to assist the council in replenishing treated drinking water levels to a normal level.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/dubliners-to-face-water-restrictions-from-tonight-1.1577184


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,111 ✭✭✭ShadowFox


    10,000 May have Died on 1 Philippine Island Alone / Death Toll Still Climbing By The Hundred

    http://realityweather.eu/10000-may-died-1-philippine-island-alone-death-toll-still-climbing-hundred/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,088 ✭✭✭aaakev


    ShadowFox wrote: »
    10,000 May have Died on 1 Philippine Island Alone / Death Toll Still Climbing By The Hundred

    http://realityweather.eu/10000-may-died-1-philippine-island-alone-death-toll-still-climbing-hundred/

    ****... Iv said it before and ill say it again. We are so lucky we live in ireland. Sad day


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,440 ✭✭✭The Aussie


    aaakev wrote: »
    ****... Iv said it before and ill say it again. We are so lucky we live in ireland. Sad day

    Yes, it is a benign little rock this one we live in, it does not shake several Kilimeters under it, it does not get extreme weather as in Cyclones/Typhoons/Hurricanes (bar a week or two of minus temperatures each winter), and the odd twister that does land here might knock a few leaves off a tree, it does not spontaneously combust each summer, it does not have any creatures that can kill you in 101 different and interesting ways.

    Bar the shower running the place it's a great place....


  • Registered Users Posts: 273 ✭✭Danpad


    The Aussie wrote: »
    Yes, it is a benign little rock this one we live in, it does not shake several Kilimeters under it, it does not get extreme weather as in Cyclones/Typhoons/Hurricanes (bar a week or two of minus temperatures each winter), and the odd twister that does land here might knock a few leaves off a tree, it does not spontaneously combust each summer, it does not have any creatures that can kill you in 101 different and interesting ways.

    Bar the shower running the place it's a great place....

    Exactly! also, we're not exactly a nuclear target either, although some would argue that Shannon airport IS I don't think we're high on the list. We have a predominant south westerly wind that should keep most nasty airborne particles (fall out, bio attacks etc) moving away from us. If I was on the European mainland I think Ireland is the type of place I'd like to bug out to...but hey...we're already here!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,324 ✭✭✭Cork boy 55


    Ireland can and has been hit by severe storms
    There are some sketchy weather maps available and the suggestion is that this was a rapidly deepening low that may have reached central pressures around 930 mbs somewhere north of Donegal as it tracked towards northern Scotland. I think it was probably just a stronger version of many storms we have tracked here in the past few years, in fact far stronger. Damage to structures indicated winds that gusted over 100 mph and a storm surge also suggested very strong winds as well as the low pressure values.

    This is very subjective but it seems to me that a worst case windstorm for Ireland could be even stronger than 1839, and a lot stronger than anything seen in recent decades. You could imagine a low reaching 930-935 mbs with wind gusts to 120 knots, and the general thinking seems to be that if ocean temperatures continue to rise slowly due to climate change, this becomes more possible although conversely, there is also a correlation between colder climate regimes and strong wind events (but perhaps displaced away from mid-winter which would get into more blocking and less stormy patterns).

    I really don't think the severity of the 1839 storm had much if anything to do with building standards prevalent in those times. The same storm run again this winter would do an enormous amount of damage to modern buildings and infra-structure. The same goes for other such storms like the 1703 "Daniel Defoe" storm in southern England. The damage to shipping might be less significant but there was a 3-metre storm surge around Bristol and many buildings that lost their roofs, both situations would be similar despite stronger building techniques, because there are now many thousands more targets and we saw in Jan 1990 how close to the limit for building collapse a relatively weak storm can be, if we added 50% or more to those winds, imagine the damage that might result -- same goes for recent major windstorms in Ireland.

    I also wonder if Debbie (1961) was a 100-year return tropical event for Ireland, or longer -- probably in the 200-500 year range, but here again, more frequent such events are predicted as a result of warmer waters, more active seasons, etc. The frequency of North Atlantic tropical systems seems to have increased by almost 50% in recent decades, not all of this can be attributable to better reporting through technology.

    Anyway, imagine the overload on boards.ie weather forum if a 120-knot wind gust appeared in an outlook forecast, we had that phantom storm last December that never materialized but the models seem ready for one.
    The night of the big wind


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,440 ✭✭✭The Aussie


    Meh, you get 2-5 of them off the Queensland Coast every summer, there are people in far North Queensland who would trade their left one for it to be predicted from 200 to 500 years...


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,750 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    The looting and violence has started in the worst hit areas as some people have no supplies and others see an opportunity.
    “The Special Action Force and the PNP Chief Alan Purisima arrived yesterday afternoon to work with the military and the local police on the ground to address the looting. We see this as a sign of desperation because warehouses and groceries were overwhelmed by the people who are in need,” Romualdez said.

    PNP is the Philippine National Police. There has been a flooding of donations for the victims of Yolanda, but the government and private organizations are having a hard time in dispensing the aid because of the destruction of roads, bridges and airports brought by Yolanda—the strongest typhoon recorded in the word for 2013.

    Romualdez then disclosed that aside from looting, there has been an incident where a Red Cross caravan was hijacked by the people still reeling the wrath of Yolanda which left Leyte, as well as Eastern Samar, Capiz, Iloilo and some parts of Palawan. in tatters.

    “We could understand for the desperation for the relief, but the order should be restored. There are those who are taking advantage of the situation, taking away appliances,” Romualdez added.

    But Gonzales-Romualdez argued that the public should not mistake the people of Tacloban City for thieves just because of the looting incidents, saying that the people there would just want to protect their families from harm.

    “The people in our City aren’t thieves. They just want the best for their families, give them something to eat. They won’t kill or hurt anybody. They just want what is good for their families,” Gonzales-Romualdez, the wife of Tacloban City Mayor Alfred Romualdez, said in closing.

    Romualdez’s office is providing rice, juice, bottled water and sardines to the typhoon Yolanda victims.

    http://manilatimes.net/special-action-force-deployed-to-stop-looting-in-typhoon-hit-areas/52173/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,111 ✭✭✭ShadowFox




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,111 ✭✭✭ShadowFox


    Gardaí ‘anxious’ to recover poisonous substance stolen from veterinary clinic

    http://crime.ie/20131112/poisonous_substance_stolen/#.UoJKl_krrfB


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,498 ✭✭✭✭Esel


    ^ I like the proprietary name.... Release.

    Not your ornery onager



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,750 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    A good blog from the Philippines with a large array of photos of the devastation.

    http://cbholganzablog.wordpress.com/

    This article is well worth reading to give an insight into how horrendous a SHTF scenario can really be, especially if you have dependants (small kids etc.) If ever you doubted the need to prep supplies and plans for SHTF, this article should motivate you sufficiently.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/12/typhoon-haiyan-please-help-us

    Typhoon-Haiyan-aftermath-009.jpg
    "There is some aid being delivered, but we have to go all the way into Bogo City to get it," he says, a return journey of some 25 miles. "We have no fuel, we have no money, our water pumps are broken, so everything costs."

    Water from the town costs 30 pesos, he explains, but as he earns only 60 pesos a day as a cutter in the neighbouring sugar cane plantation, neither he – nor his neighbours – have the funds to support his family in this time of crisis.

    Another up to date article on the situation.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/13/philippines-typhoon-food-stampede-aid
    Dean Smith, an Australian who has been living with his family near Palo, Leyte province, for the last five years, told the Guardian that he waited eight hours to be able to get one of the first commercial flights out of Tacloban to Cebu. On the way to the airport he said he saw "horrifying things that I know I have seen but my brain hasn't processed yet".

    He described scenes of chaos in the city centre, where police were stealing money from the local cashpoints, people in cars were refusing to drive the injured to get help, and the bloated body of a man floating in dirty water was being gnawed at by a dog.

    "What people have gone through, what they have seen – there is going to be a lot of post-traumatic stress after this event I assure you," he said shakily. "No one has ever seen anything like this."

    Having arrived on Tuesday in Cebu, Smith was planning to stock up on food, medicine and water and take it back to his Palo home, where his wife, six children, a 92-year-old grandmother and a pregnant nanny were all desperately awaiting supplies. He departed for Tacloban early on Wednesday morning.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,111 ✭✭✭ShadowFox


    Sleet and snow expected to fall this week
    Temperatures to plummet and wintry showers on the cards

    http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/sleet-and-snow-expected-to-fall-this-week-29760118.html

    100 DAYS OF HEAVY SNOW: Britain now facing worst winter in SIXTY YEARS warn forecasters

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/443462/Winter-2013-expected-to-be-worst-since-1947-with-heavy-and-persistent-snow-forecast-for-UK


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,306 ✭✭✭CardinalJ


    I'd love to see a history of the Daily Express' winter stories. Every winter they get more ridiculous. Expecting them to soon announce summer will be cancelled next year.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,750 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs



    A seven-to-one majority of ESB workers have voted in favour of striking in the latest twist in a long-standing row over a deficit in the State-owned company’s pension plan.

    The company’s group of unions says that there is a €1.7 billion shortfall in the staff retirement fund, although the ESB itself disputes this, and says it has already agreed a plan with regulators that will plug the gap.

    Earlier, the group of unions confirmed that members voted by 87.5 per cent to 12.5 per cent in favour of industrial action, including strike, in a ballot of all five organisations that make up of the group.

    The union’s claim that the company is refusing to recognise the pension pot’s shortfall, which they argue would leave workers with just 4 per cent of their benefits should it be wound up.

    In a statement, the group said that the ESB’s actions had given rise to an industrial dispute.

    The ESB responded by saying that it has established procedures to address industrial relations issues, and pointed out that it has invited the unions to talks with the company.

    “ESB is disappointed at the outcome of a ballot today by the group of unions for industrial action,” it said.

    “We acknowledge the potentially serious impact of this situation for customers and we will continue to work to resolve the issues directly with the group of unions through the established procedures.”
    http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/energy-and-resources/esb-workers-vote-for-strike-action-in-pensions-row-1.1599148
    Stay close to this story folks!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,111 ✭✭✭ShadowFox


    ShadowFox wrote: »
    Sleet and snow expected to fall this week
    Temperatures to plummet and wintry showers on the cards

    http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/sleet-and-snow-expected-to-fall-this-week-29760118.html

    100 DAYS OF HEAVY SNOW: Britain now facing worst winter in SIXTY YEARS warn forecasters

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/443462/Winter-2013-expected-to-be-worst-since-1947-with-heavy-and-persistent-snow-forecast-for-UK
    Met Eireann issued a weather warning
    http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp
    http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IE-Ireland.html


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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,750 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    Deck the halls with 12v lighting...
    There is a threat of power cuts from 16 December after the ESB group of unions decided to serve notice of industrial action on the company in a row over a €1.6 billion pension fund deficit.

    The notice will be served on Friday 29 November and will expire at 8am on Monday 16 December.

    The nature of industrial action has not been decided but the group has agreed to accept an invitation to talks issued by ESB management last week.

    Each affiliate union in the group will have to serve individual notice of industrial action on the company.

    The group of unions met today to decide its strategy after staff voted overwhelmingly to back industrial action in the pension deficit row.

    The company has said that following a restructuring of the pension scheme in 2010, it carries no additional liability for addressing the deficit.

    Unions are furious that the company has paid a €78m dividend to the State and is due to pay a further €400m from the sale of assets while the pension deficit remains.

    They fear that if the deficit is not addressed staff could face a significant reduction in their pension benefits.

    Four staff members have also commenced legal action challenging the dividend payments.

    http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/1122/488410-esb-unions-pension/


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 987 ✭✭✭The Glass Key


    But will they take their Christmas hols first and then strike in the New Year I wonder?

    Good timing if they want to go to the sales.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,485 ✭✭✭✭Khannie


    Thanks for the heads up. Just bought one of the 16 LED versions of these. Looks cheap and flimsy, but should do the trick for the time that's in it. Can't complain at less than a fiver.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,750 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,485 ✭✭✭✭Khannie


    Tabnabs wrote: »

    Interesting. I don't get the benefit of the flower pots though. Why not just have 4 tea lights in a bread loaf tin?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 987 ✭✭✭The Glass Key


    Tabnabs wrote: »

    You'd get more heat out of "fork handles" :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 987 ✭✭✭The Glass Key


    Khannie wrote: »
    Interesting. I don't get the benefit of the flower pots though. Why not just have 4 tea lights in a bread loaf tin?

    It changes the way the heat moves. From a candle most will be heat the air hot air rises etc etc but if you heat a solid body like a flower pot some of the heat from the flower pot will be radiated so you feel more benefit from it. Still same amount of heat unless you can burn the candles faster or use more candles.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,750 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    8cAgJ.jpg

    The physics boffins argue over it on this forum, it seems to suggest a +3 degrees rise in a small room (average box/home office room) with the existing temp is under 20 degrees.

    http://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/18338/is-this-tealight-flowerpot-heater-more-efficient-than-just-tealights


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 987 ✭✭✭The Glass Key


    I can just see some Darwin Award candidate doing this with plastic flower pots.


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Tabnabs wrote: »
    8cAgJ.jpg

    The physics boffins argue over it on this forum, it seems to suggest a +3 degrees rise in a small room (average box/home office room) with the existing temp is under 20 degrees.

    http://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/18338/is-this-tealight-flowerpot-heater-more-efficient-than-just-tealights

    Output will be identical no matter what you put it in...


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