Official Free Money Betting Superthread 2011/12

DeDoc · 08-12-2011 9:39pm

KevIRL wrote: »

Guy suggested O Malley @ 25's (each way 1/4 the top 4) for top try scorer. 2 to his name already. What do ye think on here?

Correct scorer bets are not good bets in general IMO. Tie up your money too long and the prices (in general) are too poor

Ultimately successful betting isn't very sexy, its about doing your homework and identifying games/events that are underpriced.

If you take the above bet as an example, you'd have to first consider that the overround on the market is probably 50%+ - so you're looking at Barney Bookmaker having a huge margin for error.
So what price do you think is the fair price for O'Malley - and given that they're so far out with this one - whose price is way to long to compensate?

profitius · 08-12-2011 11:16pm

How about this double. Clermont (vs Leicester) @ 4/11 and Leinster (vs Bath) @ 1/2. That'll return just over evens. Clermont have not lost at home in 35 games.

DeDoc · 08-12-2011 11:23pm

profitius wrote: »

How about this double. Clermont (vs Leicester) @ 4/11 and Leinster (vs Bath) @ 1/2. That'll return just over evens. Clermont have not lost at home in 35 games.

Clermont bet is pretty safe, but I wouldn't be wild about the price - 2/5 available with Bluesq and 888 by the way.
Leinster bet is meah - I'd far rather take them on the handicap (-4) @ 1.91

SteelyDanJalapeno · 08-12-2011 11:24pm

How is it Meah?! it's safer than the handicap!!!

DeDoc · 08-12-2011 11:38pm

Of course it is safer, but I think you're paying an excessive price for that safety. There is better value in the -4, with plenty of safety margin built in (in my opinion) - 10 points would be closer to the mark as a fair 'cap.

profitius · 09-12-2011 12:20am

DeDoc wrote: »

Of course it is safer, but I think you're paying an excessive price for that safety. There is better value in the -4, with plenty of safety margin built in (in my opinion) - 10 points would be closer to the mark as a fair 'cap.

Indeed and I think Leinster will cover the handicap but a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.

Also you need to take into account the potential loss as well as the price you're missing out on by playing it safe.

DeDoc · 09-12-2011 12:42am

Sorry, maybe I wasn't clear

Whatever the price there's a risk of the bet losing, where (obviously) you lose your stake. The rest of the time you win, and there you get a multiple (maybe less than 1) of your money back as a bonus.

Two things determine where the 'sweet spot' is - the balance between potential loss (risk) and potential gain (reward), and your own preference for the balance between the two (utility, to use the economics term). For, probably, the majority of people, the latter is simple - when the average amount they expect to lose is equal to the average amount they expect to win, you're at that sweet spot. if you're on one side or the other you're at the point where it is a no bet (most common, especially as the bookies have the odds in their favour due to the overround), or (what we want!) where the bookies price is too low and you expect to make money.

My contention is that that balance is more favourable on the Leinster -4 @ 1.91 than the Leinster (scratch) @ 1.4

duckysauce · 09-12-2011 12:50am

DeDoc wrote: »

Sorry, maybe I wasn't clear

Whatever the price there's a risk of the bet losing, where (obviously) you lose your stake. The rest of the time you win, and there you get a multiple (maybe less than 1) of your money back as a bonus.

Two things determine where the 'sweet spot' is - the balance between potential loss (risk) and potential gain (reward), and your own preference for the balance between the two (utility, to use the economics term). For, probably, the majority of people, the latter is simple - when the average amount they expect to lose is equal to the average amount they expect to win, you're at that sweet spot. if you're on one side or the other you're at the point where it is a no bet (most common, especially as the bookies have the odds in their favour due to the overround), or (what we want!) where the bookies price is too low and you expect to make money.

My contention is that that balance is more favourable on the Leinster -4 @ 1.91 than the Leinster (scratch) @ 1.4

maths don't come into when a team is physically blown off the pitch or another has a mare.

Do posters here reckon Leinster are a banker this weekend?

Haven't seen Bath play this year , Leinster have really impressed me so far and i thought they would fall away a bit this year.

PhatPiggins · 09-12-2011 1:07am

duckysauce wrote: »

maths don't come into when a team is physically blown off the pitch or another has a mare.

Do posters here reckon Leinster are a banker this weekend?

Haven't seen Bath play this year , Leinster have really impressed me so far and i thought they would fall away a bit this year.

No offense but maths always comes into it.

duckysauce · 09-12-2011 1:14am

lol none taken , heineken getting the better of me , maths do have a massive effect on betting , probably why i do so badly

, Anyway hope Leinster + munster do well this weekend

PhatPiggins · 09-12-2011 1:27am

duckysauce wrote: »

lol none taken , heineken getting the better of me , maths do have a massive effect on betting , probably why i do so badly , Anyway hope Leinster + munster do well this weekend

To answer your previous question, I do think Leinster are specials for the weekend and will cover the 4 point cap.

As an aside I currently have a serious thirst for a pint of Heineken

. Thanks for that friend.

thomond2006 · 09-12-2011 2:20pm

Munster are 11/10, I couldn't resist!

its_phil · 09-12-2011 4:06pm

267/1 accumulator

Gracelessly Tom · 09-12-2011 8:29pm

Gone for two wild ones:

Census Johnson to score in 80 mins @14/1 and two or more @225/1

and the more likely Quinns to score a try in both halfs @ 15/8.

My H Cup radar has been off so far this season so not over confident.

CatFromHue · 09-12-2011 10:46pm

CatFromHue wrote: »

Treviso are +5 on Paddy Power. The game is in Treviso and they're playing well this season.

Yachvilli and Harinordoquay are not playing for Biarritz.

duckysauce · 09-12-2011 11:55pm

CatFromHue wrote: »

Yachvilli and Harinordoquay are not playing for Biarritz.

gone to +4 now

duckysauce · 10-12-2011 4:55pm

Podge_irl wrote: »

Castres are 6/5 for some inexplicable reason. With Ashton and Dowson out I would have thought Castres would be easy favourites at home.

cheers for the heads up

Judgement Day · 10-12-2011 6:39pm

After a disaster miss-calling Ulster try scorers last night today was pay back time.

duckysauce · 11-12-2011 12:39am

Judgement Day wrote: »

After a disaster miss-calling Ulster try scorers last night today was pay back time.

you nail those scores JD sweet

CatFromHue · 11-12-2011 6:41pm

CatFromHue wrote: »

Treviso are +5 on Paddy Power. The game is in Treviso and they're playing well this season.

Leinster are -4. I can see us getting all 5 points here.

Ospreys are +7 away to Saracens. I can see Ospreys getting the losing bonus point here at least.

It was close in the Leinster game!

I also had Clermont at -7 and Connacht at +5 so a good weekend for me.

profitius · 12-12-2011 12:28am

CatFromHue wrote: »

It was close in the Leinster game!

I also had Clermont at -7 and Connacht at +5 so a good weekend for me.

Close indeed. I'm sure Leinster went to -5pts or -6pts in the last few days.

I done the double (Leinster and Clermont). Paddypowers price was 70 per 100 Euro. Ladbrookes price was 92 per 100 Euro. Big difference there.

12-12-2011 11:12am

Never in doubt.

cha ching

12-12-2011 1:19pm

Treviso + 14 please and thanks

CatFromHue · 12-12-2011 8:01pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Treviso + 14 please and thanks

Biarritz's biggest win this season was the 15 - 10 vistory over Saracens. Other than that they've only won by 2.

Ulster at -11 looks good. Ulster won last season in the HEC by 37 points away to Aironi.

Leinster at -15 might be good. Schmidt has been saying he was disappointed at Leinsters lack of try's on Sunday and I think's fair to say that we will be aiming for the try bonus in this game too.

Considering Toulouse won by 11 away to Harlequins their handicap of -12 looks good.

Connacht at +15 could be runner. Realistically it's their last chance, or just about it anyway, to pick up a win in the HEC.

Judgement Day · 13-12-2011 11:00pm

PP bought the Guinness tonight despite Jonny showing signs of post retirement fatigue and leaving a lot of points behind him as Toulon blew away Agen 34-12.

14-12-2011 3:30pm

Glasgow 7/2 vs Montpellier with Stan James..

Way too wide imo

Getting on the +11 anyway

CatFromHue · 14-12-2011 9:35pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Glasgow 7/2 vs Montpellier with Stan James..

Way too wide imo

Getting on the +11 anyway

I think Paddy Power has forgotten about this game, they're not listed it on their website.

16-12-2011 10:45am

Stan James only one offering it. Pain in the hole.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/club-rugby/heineken-cup/montpellier-v-glasgow/winner

Definitely snapping it up though.

wixfjord · 16-12-2011 11:04am

Depending on what teams are put out that could be value or not though.
If Montpellier play their full team, they should win easily enough. Have Glasgow the pack or 9/10 to go to France and compete?

16-12-2011 11:10am

wixfjord wrote: »

Depending on what teams are put out that could be value or not though.
If Montpellier play their full team, they should win easily enough. Have Glasgow the pack or 9/10 to go to France and compete?

Glasgow

Team
15 Stuart Hogg
14 Federico Aramburu
13 Peter Murchie
12 Troy Nathan
11 Rory Lamont
10 Ruaridh Jackson
9 Chris Cusiter
1 Ryan Grant
2 Pat MacArthur
3 Michael Cusack
4 Richie Gray
5 Alastair Kellock
6 John Barclay
7 Chris Fusaro
8 Johnnie Beattie

Replacements
16 Dougie Hall
17 Jon Welsh
18 Moray Low
19 Tom Ryder
20 Henry Pyrgos
21 Ryan Wilson
22 Rob Dewey
23 Duncan Weir

Should be enough to keep the game within 11 points imo

wixfjord · 16-12-2011 11:13am

Deleted User wrote: »

Should be enough to keep the game within 11 points imo

Is that the team? Looks tasty enough on paper. Again, a lot depends on what Mont put out though, but 11 points certainly looks good judging by that.

DeDoc · 16-12-2011 11:41am

Hate to rain on your parade, but I think it is a pretty average bet, at best.

Montpellier had a largely second string side out in Glasgow last week and lost by 5 points

Even with the same sides out, I'd expect a swing of the order of 15 points (or more!), just for home advantage.

I reckon you'll see a stronger MHRC side this week - with Gorgodze, Tin-Duck, Oudreago, Tomas etc

Not saying it won't happen, but the bet, IMO, is marginal if MHRC field their seconds, and off by at least 10 points if they field their first team.

wixfjord · 16-12-2011 12:11pm

Team up:

15. J-B Peyras Loustalet, 14. Pierre Bérard, 13. Paul Bosch, 12. Thomas Combezou, 11. Yoan Audrin, 10. Ilian Perraux, 9. Eric Escande, 1. Goderzi Shvelidze, 2. Mickael Ladhuie, 3. Kevin Kervarec, 4. Joe Tuineau, 5. Drickus Hancke, 6. Vassili Bost, 7. Rémy Martin, 8. Masi Matadigo,
16. Joan Caudullo, 17. Mikheil Nariashvili, 18. Maximiliano Bustos, 19. Mamuka Gorgodze, 20. Kelian Galletier, 21. Benoit Paillaugue, 22. Francois Trinh-Duc, 23. Geoffrey Doumayrou,

Go go go for the +11!

16-12-2011 12:36pm

In this game, you either have to be first, or smarter than all others.

The real trick is to be both.

:smuggit:

DeDoc · 16-12-2011 3:50pm

I wouldn't get too carried away yet.

Remember that this Glasgow team has won 3 away HEC games in 10 years - 2 of which were against Aironi and the Dragons. The only away win of any consequence was against Toulouse in 08/09, who that year managed the unusual feat of not scoring a try in 3 of their HEC games.

It is a weak MHRC, especially in the backs, but their pack is ok and they do have decent players on the bench.

Marginal I'd say, but you probably just about have value. I'd still stay away from it tbh

wixfjord · 16-12-2011 3:58pm

DeDoc wrote: »

I wouldn't get too carried away yet.

Remember that this Glasgow team has won 3 away HEC games in 10 years - 2 of which were against Aironi and the Dragons. The only away win of any consequence was against Toulouse in 08/09, who that year managed the unusual feat of not scoring a try in 3 of their HEC games.

It is a weak MHRC, especially in the backs, but their pack is ok and they do have decent players on the bench.

Marginal I'd say, but you probably just about have value. I'd still stay away from it tbh

Well well well mr. negative pants!
You could also say that Glasgow have previous of winning in France, and have far more experience in the HEC than Mont.
Glasgee and have a pack to go toe to toe with Montpellier, with a strong front row on the bench to bring on. Rory Lamont back is a boost too.

16-12-2011 4:08pm

HC already into 7

Yardie · 16-12-2011 4:12pm

Glasgow +11 is a decent bet. Ruairdhri Jackson back at 10 is big plus for Glasgwo,however with the talent Montepellier can bring off the bench I reckon they are still gonna do enough win the game so surely Montpellier to win by 1-10 points @ 2/1 is the better play in this one. What dys reckon?

PhatPiggins · 16-12-2011 4:34pm

wixfjord wrote: »

Well well well mr. negative pants!
You could also say that Glasgow have previous of winning in France, and have far more experience in the HEC than Mont.
Glasgee and have a pack to go toe to toe with Montpellier, with a strong front row on the bench to bring on. Rory Lamont back is a boost too.

I'm on the fence for this one but I think they're are far safer bets then a game involving the French runners up who may or may not turn up against an in form but awful road team.

For me in order of preference

Leicester -4
Ospreys -3
Leinster -15
London Irish -9

DeDoc · 16-12-2011 4:42pm

PhatPiggins wrote: »

I'm on the fence for this one but I think they're are far safer bets then a game involving the French runners up who may or may not turn up against an in form but awful road team.

For me in order of preference

Leicester -4
Ospreys -3
Leinster -15
London Irish -9

That pretty much sums it up for me. It (IMO) wasn't a good bet until the team news came out - which moved it at best into a maybe.
I wouldn't have any great confidence about Glasgow and 'previous' when we're talking about 1 win - even over Toulouse. Similarly I don't think experience in the HEC is that relevant when a team has a losing record like Glasgows.

Glasgow pack is ok, but remember how a 7 man Leinster pack bullied them off the pitch and scored two tries. And that was the same pack, by and large, who'd themselves largely been bullied in Montpellier the week before. I know the MHRC team is weaker and they were (probably) more up for that game than for this one, but I wouldn't have any great belief in the ability of Glasgow to go toe to toe. I'd say if anything they'll be looking to exploit MHRCs relatively callow backline

good luck with the bet anyhow, but not for me - I'd prefer Mr. Phiggins lines above

16-12-2011 5:12pm

DeDoc wrote: »

That pretty much sums it up for me. It (IMO) wasn't a good bet until the team news came out - which moved it at best into a maybe.

Not incredibly difficult to realise that Glasgow are still in the competition and Montepellier have nothing to gain for the game. Not incredibly difficult to then make a positive guestimation that perhaps Montpellier may approach the game with a little bit of caution, and rest some of their most important players.

I wouldn't have priced a 16 point swing by a home/away for many teams in this competition, and certainly not a team that has no longer a foothold in the competition.

If I gave reasoning behind all my bets, I'd be fired, but I think it's pretty disingenuous to call anyone's tips on here "not good bets", especially considering some people's tip records...

I do apologise for not being able to always explain my tips and reasons for betting, but they're tips, just that. Take em or leave em.

I'm actually on the 7/2 for Glasgow to win the game too, as I can't imagine the price ever being "fair" towards them at that price. They're a 6/4 or a 7/4 for this game imo, with the fair HC being 4-6 points.

PhatPiggins · 16-12-2011 5:23pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Not incredibly difficult to realise that Glasgow are still in the competition and Montepellier have nothing to gain for the game. Not incredibly difficult to then make a positive guestimation that perhaps Montpellier may approach the game with a little bit of caution, and rest some of their most important players.

I wouldn't have priced a 16 point swing by a home/away for many teams in this competition, and certainly not a team that has no longer a foothold in the competition.

If I gave reasoning behind all my bets, I'd be fired, but I think it's pretty disingenuous to call anyone's tips on here "not good bets", especially considering some people's tip records...

I do apologise for not being able to always explain my tips and reasons for betting, but they're tips, just that. Take em or leave em.

I'm actually on the 7/2 for Glasgow to win the game too, as I can't imagine the price ever being "fair" towards them at that price. They're a 6/4 or a 7/4 for this game imo, with the fair HC being 4-6 points.

Good post Emmet. Don't worry I think most of us know how bookies work out the spreads. You don't need to divulge the family secrets, though if you felt the need to pm any info you had on teamsheets prior to their announcement it would be well received

I can't for the life of me see how Glasgow can win it but you've made a very compelling arguement for the handicap. Again I wouldn't take it, not because I think its a bad bet but in my uneducated opinion there a few other bets with far fewer unknowns

DeDoc · 16-12-2011 5:34pm

All a matter of opinion I suppose.

It is relatively common for French teams to be out of the competition but still seek to win their home games - see Castres last week for example. Tons more examples in recent years too. They still don't like losing at home. I certainly wouldn't have expected them to field anyone carrying any knock etc, but I did expect a stronger side than they showed - this is more or less the same lineup as lost last weekend. As such, I doubt they'll be a pushover - if they could hold Glasgow away to 5 points, they'll fancy their chances this week I think.

I wasn't slagging off you above, by the way - just saying that I wouldn't choose to bet on that option, and why. If the substance of your tip was saying that you felt the price was based on a full strength MHRC side and you felt there wouldn't be, so to get on now, then I'd say fair enough. I didn't read it that way, and while there was still a (reasonable) possibility in my mind that they'd field a stronger side than they have, I felt it was better to wait.

I'm not aware of your tipping record, so apologies if you've been consistently making the right calls.

I can't agree with your pricing of the game though at 6/4 or 7/4 - you really think Glasgow win this 35-40% of the time? Even at 7/2 you need them to win 23% of the time, and I just don't see that - I'd say something more like 10%.

In any case, best of luck with it

CoDy1 · 16-12-2011 5:48pm

I'm going with Scarlets +9 and Bath +16. I reckon both matches will be alot closer than people think.

4PP · 16-12-2011 6:45pm

So there I was sitting quietly at home wondering where everyone had gone & it turns out you're all in here! :eek:

Very strange:o

I didn't know that this house did betting

Does this mean we are moving?

DeDoc · 16-12-2011 7:25pm

nah...

consider it like a missionary position.

err, that didn't come out right :eek:

duckysauce · 16-12-2011 7:31pm

Anyone reckon Clermont will do the tigers tomorrow nearly 3/1

its_phil · 16-12-2011 7:31pm

Gone for ospreys -3, cardiff -2 and biarritz -12 @ 7/1.

Ospreys and Cardiff need good starts because they are in for a tough night. Very confident over biarritz as there is a near full strength team out

wixfjord · 16-12-2011 7:36pm

Cardiff -2 is a great bet!

DeDoc · 16-12-2011 7:37pm

@ducky - I don't see it myself. Tigers -3 would be my bet of the weekend. Rougerie out for Clermont and he is a real talisman for them. Big injury problems in the front row too. I think Leicester will eat them at scrum time and probably win by 15 pts or more

@phil - I find the Ospreys one hard to call (I'd marginally favour Sarries +5), Cardiff I'd like. Biarritz not really.
BTW - lots of forwards missing for Biarritz, and rumours that some of the bench (e.g. August) are carrying injuries too.

Official Free Money Betting Superthread 2011/12

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