Football ranking table

Jayop · 12-07-2017 9:50pm

I'm not a betting man really. I think it's the bane of modern sports, but I was interested in the odds in that one.

2 pints will be not a problem!!

laoisman11 · 18-07-2017 9:56pm

Only minor changes in the table compared to the aftermath of last weekend’s shocks.

Armagh were the big movers this week, with a fine win away from home over a higher-ranked Tipp side, for which they gain 5 places and 4.38 rating points. Incidentially, Armagh have now increased 14 places in the rankings since the start of 2017
Both Monaghan and Tyrone had minor gains following their wins over Carlow and Down, respectively
No rating points were exchanged in the Leinster final. As it currently stands, Dublin will not pick up any rating points playing a team outside the top 5

*Teams in bold still active in the championship
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 106.11 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 102.84 | 0.00
3 | = | Tyrone | 100.67 | 0.25
4 | = | Mayo | 99.55 | 0.00
5 | = | Donegal | 94.45 | 0.00
6 | = | Kildare | 93.50 | 0.00
7 | = | Roscommon | 92.09 | 0.00
8 | ▲ 5 | Armagh | 89.73 | 4.38
9 | ▲ | Monaghan | 89.07 | 0.67
10 | ▼ | Cork | 88.52 | 0.00
11 | = | Galway | 88.20 | 0.00
12 | = | Down | 86.00 | -0.25
13 | ▼ 5 | Tipperary | 84.86 | -4.38
14 | = | Clare | 84.69 | 0.00
15 | = | Meath | 83.26 | 0.00
16 | = | Cavan | 81.54 | 0.00
17 | = | Westmeath | 80.68 | 0.00
18 | = | Derry | 79.16 | 0.00
19 | = | Longford | 78.05 | 0.00
20 | = | Sligo | 76.76 | 0.00
21 | = | Fermanagh | 74.62 | 0.00
22 | ▲ | Offaly | 73.36 | 0.00
23 | ▼ | Carlow | 73.10 | -0.67
24 | = | Laois | 73.06 | 0.00
25 | = | Wexford | 70.88 | 0.00
26 | = | Louth | 68.87 | 0.00
27 | = | Antrim | 68.71 | 0.00
28 | = | Limerick | 65.40 | 0.00
29 | = | Leitrim | 64.79 | 0.00
30 | = | New York | 57.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 57.11 | 0.00
32 | = | Wicklow | 55.89 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 53.77 | 0.00

Charles Babbage · 19-07-2017 1:13am

I expect Cork, Galway and Down and Armagh to lose their games, against higher opposition. So Armagh and Monaghan will swap places in the table. and not much else until the QFs.

Armagh being in Div 3 is an anomaly, but only a miracle last minute goal by Tipp brought this about. They would be strong favourites for promotion next year.

tanko · 19-07-2017 12:54pm

Galway have the ability to beat Donegal but whether they have the motivation and belief to do it after a terrible performance against Roscommon is another matter.

Always_Running · 19-07-2017 1:55pm

tanko wrote: »

Galway have the ability to beat Donegal but whether they have the motivation and belief to do it after a terrible performance against Roscommon is another matter.

The 2 week break should help Galway plus Donegal unlike Roscommon used up a lot of their energy in the league this spring.

laoisman11 · 19-07-2017 8:06pm

Prediction output attached.

Things that stand out for me:

Was Galway's defeat to Roscommon similar to their defeat by Tipp in '16? Can they rectify it?
In 9 of their last 10 games, Galway have not come out better than expected (score minus prediction); they have not beaten Donegal in the championship since '83
Cork's form in recent times has been well below the line, whereas Mayo appear to stay close to the predicted line
There is no clear relationship between rating points difference and score difference from previous Cork vs Mayo results, but in the 2 instances where Cork were 10 rating points inferior to Mayo, they did not win

tl;dr
Donegal by 1.0
Mayo by 3.2

laoisman11 · 25-07-2017 9:51pm

Only 2 games the weekend gone by:

Galway’s huge victory over Donegal propels them 6 places up the table to 5th and they gain 6.38 rating points; Donegal, meanwhile, fall to their lowest ranking since March 2011
Mayo edge closer to Tyrone after seeing off Cork after extra-time

Teams in bold still active in the championship
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 106.11 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 102.84 | 0.00
3 | = | Tyrone | 100.67 | 0.00
4 | = | Mayo | 100.34 | 0.79
5 | ▲ 6 | Galway | 94.58 | 6.38
6 | = | Kildare | 93.50 | 0.00
7 | = | Roscommon | 92.09 | 0.00
8 | = | Armagh | 89.73 | 0.00
9 | = | Monaghan | 89.07 | 0.00
10 | ▼ 5 | Donegal | 88.07 | -6.38
11 | ▼ | Cork | 87.73 | -0.79
12 | = | Down | 86.00 | 0.00
13 | = | Tipperary | 84.86 | 0.00
14 | = | Clare | 84.69 | 0.00
15 | = | Meath | 83.26 | 0.00
16 | = | Cavan | 81.54 | 0.00
17 | = | Westmeath | 80.68 | 0.00
18 | = | Derry | 79.16 | 0.00
19 | = | Longford | 78.05 | 0.00
20 | = | Sligo | 76.76 | 0.00
21 | = | Fermanagh | 74.62 | 0.00
22 | = | Offaly | 73.36 | 0.00
23 | = | Carlow | 73.10 | 0.00
24 | = | Laois | 73.06 | 0.00
25 | = | Wexford | 70.88 | 0.00
26 | = | Louth | 68.87 | 0.00
27 | = | Antrim | 68.71 | 0.00
28 | = | Limerick | 65.40 | 0.00
29 | = | Leitrim | 64.79 | 0.00
30 | = | New York | 57.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 57.11 | 0.00
32 | = | Wicklow | 55.89 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 53.77 | 0.00

laoisman11 · 27-07-2017 10:02pm

Prediction model output attached

I mentioned it earlier in the championship, but Down generally get on well against Monaghan. Can they repeat the trick here?
A first-time championship meeting of Armagh and Kildare, with Armagh holding the upper hand from their league encounters
Roscommon’s form in their last 3 games has been exceptional; can they be the team to finally prevent Mayo from scraping over the line?
Galway’s highly erratic form in their last 2 games makes this a difficult one to call, but the previous 8 meetings between the side has largely gone to script

Tl;dr
Monaghan by 2.1
Kildare by 1.8
Mayo by 3.6
Kerry by 3.5

Farmer_3650 · 27-07-2017 11:14pm

laoisman11 wrote: »

[*]Roscommon’s form in their last 3 games has been exceptional; can they be the team to finally prevent Mayo from scraping over the line

If you look at every Mayo game so far, it has been their fitness that won them in the end and not their skill. They are not the team they once were. Roscommon have the energy to go the 70 minutes. I see the Roscommon v Mayo game being extremely close but I think Roscommon will win by 3 or 4 points in the end. As for the Kerry game, I also see a very close game but Kerry will scrape a win in the last 5 minutes.

yop · 28-07-2017 12:00pm

Farmer_3650 wrote: »

If you look at every Mayo game so far, it has been their fitness that won them in the end and not their skill. They are not the team they once were. Roscommon have the energy to go the 70 minutes. I see the Roscommon v Mayo game being extremely close but I think Roscommon will win by 3 or 4 points in the end. As for the Kerry game, I also see a very close game but Kerry will scrape a win in the last 5 minutes.

We scored 27 points against Cork, even Usain Bolt couldn't do that without skill....

What example of Roscommon going 70 minutes can you show us.

Farmer_3650 · 28-07-2017 12:48pm

yop wrote: »

We scored 27 points against Cork, even Usain Bolt couldn't do that without skill....

What example of Roscommon going 70 minutes can you show us.

Last time we played Cork we scored 37 points. But that was last year, we had a completely different team. This year we scored 21 points against Galway. I think Roscommon and Mayo are two very well matched teams and I think either way it will be a good game.

laoisman11 · 01-08-2017 9:37pm

Getting to the serious end of the championship..…

Armagh gained 3.75 rating points and move to their highest rank since March 2015. Armagh are now by far the most improved team in rating point terms since January
Monaghan gained 3.58 rating points with a bonus point win over Down
Kerry also got their bonus point win and in doing so, sneak closer to Dublin
Finally, Roscommon steal some points from Mayo to move up to their highest rank since May 2002

*Teams in bold still active in the championship
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 106.11 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 104.86 | 2.02
3 | = | Tyrone | 100.67 | 0.00
4 | = | Mayo | 98.69 | -1.65
5 | ▲ 2 | Roscommon | 93.74 | 1.65
6 | ▲ 2 | Armagh | 93.48 | 3.75
7 | ▲ 2 | Monaghan | 92.65 | 3.58
8 | ▼ 3 | Galway | 92.56 | -2.02
9 | ▼ 3 | Kildare | 89.75 | -3.75
10 | = | Donegal | 88.07 | 0.00
11 | = | Cork | 87.73 | 0.00
12 | ▲ | Tipperary | 84.86 | 0.00
13 | ▲ | Clare | 84.69 | 0.00
14 | ▲ | Meath | 83.26 | 0.00
15 | ▼ 3 | Down | 82.42 | -3.58
16 | = | Cavan | 81.54 | 0.00
17 | = | Westmeath | 80.68 | 0.00
18 | = | Derry | 79.16 | 0.00
19 | = | Longford | 78.05 | 0.00
20 | = | Sligo | 76.76 | 0.00
21 | = | Fermanagh | 74.62 | 0.00
22 | = | Offaly | 73.36 | 0.00
23 | = | Carlow | 73.10 | 0.00
24 | = | Laois | 73.06 | 0.00
25 | = | Wexford | 70.88 | 0.00
26 | = | Louth | 68.87 | 0.00
27 | = | Antrim | 68.71 | 0.00
28 | = | Limerick | 65.40 | 0.00
29 | = | Leitrim | 64.79 | 0.00
30 | = | New York | 57.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 57.11 | 0.00
32 | = | Wicklow | 55.89 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 53.77 | 0.00

ciarriaithuaidh · 03-08-2017 12:19am

Laoisman, I admire the effort and the interest in analysing the football championship you have.
Anybody putting in this sort of effort is commendable.
However, I don't think your system has much relevance and in fact, can portray an entirely different picture to the reality on the ground, and the latest post brought that home to me again.

My own county, Kerry, have "crept closer to Dublin" you say and closed the gap after a bonus point win? The reality to anyone who watched the game (or most people I'd imagine) is that the Kerry performance should have Kerry further away from Dublin if anything, not closer. Maybe one could take the view that these games are shadow-boxing for Kerry and just ignore them for ranking points, which would be entirely reasonable..but saying we are closer to Dublin after Sunday? No.

Similarly, Mayo..their stock has dropped a good bit after struggling over a very weak Cork team and drawn with Roscommon in a poor game where they scored only 4 points in the 2nd half. Yet, they appear to have stayed steady in your table. Again, not reflecting reality I feel.

I could go on but I think you get what I mean? It's just a cold, factual evaluation without the realism basically IMO. Kildare and Down both drop severely after Saturday but both of them played some good football in 2 very good games. Certainly Kildare v Armagh was of a higher quality than either game Sunday. Down cut Monaghan apart a lot in first half also and should have been ahead at half time. The 2nd half admittedly, Monaghan showed they are a step ahead and the scoreline reflected that.

I'm struggling to verbalize exactly how I feel slightly but will leave it at that I think.

Jayop · 03-08-2017 12:43am

You're reading too much into a minor points increase for kerry in a week Dublin didn't play. When Dublin inevitably hammer. Monaghan then the difference will most likely be greater than it was before Kerry played Galway. You can't compare until the end of a round of fixtures.

Likewise Mayo. You're complaining that they have retained 4th, but they were third a few weeks ago and in all likelihood they'll be in the last 4 so where do you suggest they should be in the standings and who should be ahead of them?

Charles Babbage · 03-08-2017 12:53am

ciarriaithuaidh wrote: »

My own county, Kerry, have "crept closer to Dublin" you say and closed the gap after a bonus point win? The reality to anyone who watched the game (or most people I'd imagine) is that the Kerry performance should have Kerry further away from Dublin if anything, not closer.

Dublin and Kerry playing different weeks. Dublin will pull away from Kerry on Saturday, I suspect. The margin of victory should play a part in calculations and reflect Kerry's performance to some extent.

I could go on but I think you get what I mean? It's just a cold, factual evaluation without the realism basically IMO. Kildare and Down both drop severely after Saturday but both of them played some good football in 2 very good games. Certainly Kildare v Armagh was of a higher quality than either game Sunday. Down cut Monaghan apart a lot in first half also and should have been ahead at half time. The 2nd half admittedly, Monaghan showed they are a step ahead and the scoreline reflected that.

Monaghan beat Down and Armagh beat Kildare and so improved relative to these counties. That is fair enough IMHO.

The teams in the quarter finals stand at 1-8.

Django99 · 03-08-2017 1:27am

The think people need to remember is this. When we talk about the best teams, or which team is better than another, or how much better one team is than another, we are talking in terms of opinion. I could have an opinion that one team is better than another. A different person could have the opposite opinion. We have no way of knowing who's opinion is right, but it's fun to talk about for sure.

This ranking table has absolutely nothing to do with opinions. The author is not trying to say that he thinks Kerry are now closer to Dublin because they beat Galway. He is not trying to say that Mayo are just as good as they were last year. To say those things would be opinions.

This is purely numbers. It is science. It's accuracy compared to people's opinions is completely irrelevant. It's extremely interesting to look at the table, and to compare the standings to results in hindsight. But it's not trying to say that Kerry are now more likely to beat Dublin. It's not trying to say that Mayo are as good as they were last year.

It's statistics, it's science, it's not art.

Fr Tod Umptious · 03-08-2017 1:49am

ciarriaithuaidh wrote: »

Laoisman, I admire the effort and the interest in analysing the football championship you have.
Anybody putting in this sort of effort is commendable.
However, I don't think your system has much relevance and in fact, can portray an entirely different picture to the reality on the ground, and the latest post brought that home to me again.

My own county, Kerry, have "crept closer to Dublin" you say and closed the gap after a bonus point win? The reality to anyone who watched the game (or most people I'd imagine) is that the Kerry performance should have Kerry further away from Dublin if anything, not closer. Maybe one could take the view that these games are shadow-boxing for Kerry and just ignore them for ranking points, which would be entirely reasonable..but saying we are closer to Dublin after Sunday? No.

Similarly, Mayo..their stock has dropped a good bit after struggling over a very weak Cork team and drawn with Roscommon in a poor game where they scored only 4 points in the 2nd half. Yet, they appear to have stayed steady in your table. Again, not reflecting reality I feel.

I could go on but I think you get what I mean? It's just a cold, factual evaluation without the realism basically IMO. Kildare and Down both drop severely after Saturday but both of them played some good football in 2 very good games. Certainly Kildare v Armagh was of a higher quality than either game Sunday. Down cut Monaghan apart a lot in first half also and should have been ahead at half time. The 2nd half admittedly, Monaghan showed they are a step ahead and the scoreline reflected that.

I'm struggling to verbalize exactly how I feel slightly but will leave it at that I think.

Look at it at a high level, not just based on what you see on the field on any given Sunday.

Right now focus on the teams no longer in the competition, their current ranking gives a pretty true reflection of where they sit.

And the end of the year look at the rankings and they are usually pretty accurate.

ahnowbrowncow · 03-08-2017 1:57am

Jayop wrote: »

You're reading too much into a minor points increase for kerry in a week Dublin didn't play. When Dublin inevitably hammer. Monaghan then the difference will most likely be greater than it was before Kerry played Galway. You can't compare until the end of a round of fixtures.

Likewise Mayo. You're complaining that they have retained 4th, but they were third a few weeks ago and in all likelihood they'll be in the last 4 so where do you suggest they should be in the standings and who should be ahead of them?

Dublin won't gain any points if they beat Monaghan. They're over 13 points ahead of Monaghan, plus they gain three from home advantage so they'll be over 15 points ahead which means there'll be no adjustment for them winning.

In reply to ciarriaithuaidh, I have to say that I think the table is quite accurate, all the current top 8 teams have got to the quarter finals.

blowitupref · 03-08-2017 3:25am

ciarriaithuaidh wrote: »

Laoisman, I admire the effort and the interest in analysing the football championship you have.
Anybody putting in this sort of effort is commendable.
However, I don't think your system has much relevance and in fact, can portray an entirely different picture to the reality on the ground, and the latest post brought that home to me again.

My own county, Kerry, have "crept closer to Dublin" you say and closed the gap after a bonus point win? The reality to anyone who watched the game (or most people I'd imagine) is that the Kerry performance should have Kerry further away from Dublin if anything, not closer. Maybe one could take the view that these games are shadow-boxing for Kerry and just ignore them for ranking points, which would be entirely reasonable..but saying we are closer to Dublin after Sunday? No.

Similarly, Mayo..their stock has dropped a good bit after struggling over a very weak Cork team and drawn with Roscommon in a poor game where they scored only 4 points in the 2nd half. Yet, they appear to have stayed steady in your table. Again, not reflecting reality I feel.

I could go on but I think you get what I mean? It's just a cold, factual evaluation without the realism basically IMO. Kildare and Down both drop severely after Saturday but both of them played some good football in 2 very good games. Certainly Kildare v Armagh was of a higher quality than either game Sunday. Down cut Monaghan apart a lot in first half also and should have been ahead at half time. The 2nd half admittedly, Monaghan showed they are a step ahead and the scoreline reflected that.

I'm struggling to verbalize exactly how I feel slightly but will leave it at that I think.

Armaghs quality may have looked higher but only because were up against a wide open Kildare defence that didn't seem to learn nothing from the Leinster final. They will be up against a more organized defence next and that quality will be less noticeable because their players won't be given the same time and room on the ball and more errors will happen then in Armagh play when under pressure.

ciarriaithuaidh · 03-08-2017 6:36am

blowitupref wrote: »

Armaghs quality may have looked higher but only because were up against a wide open Kildare defence that didn't seem to learn nothing from the Leinster final. They will be up against a more organized defence next and that quality will be less noticeable because their players won't be given the same time and room on the ball and more errors will happen then in Armagh play when under pressure.

Were Kildare any less "wide open" than Galway were Sunday in allowing a Kerry team performing way below its best score 1-18, 1-16 of which was from play? Surely not? Armagh's attacking play, epitomised by Jamie Clarke's movement and some outstanding long-range shooting, was the difference.

Kerry got a "bonus point" for beating Galway seemingly, due to Galway's proximity to them in the ranking - they were ranked 5th last week before the Kerry game, despite being totally outplayed at home by Roscommon and playing terribly. They then beat a Donegal team that put in probably their worst performance since 2010. Any system that has this Galway team ranked 5th in the country at ANY point in the last few years is just totally flawed.

Cork we're almost heading for Div 3 this year at one point. They are in disarray and almost lost to Waterford, scraped by Tipperary and got hammered by Kerry.
They produce their best performance of the year and take a division 1 team and finalists last year, to extra time, losing by 1, and they LOSE points on the rankings? Explain that to me?

I submit, some of ye need to start watching games more rather than looking at raw data and some prediction model. I'll leave ye to it.

laoisman11 · 03-08-2017 8:42am

ciarriaithuaidh wrote: »

Were Kildare any less "wide open" than Galway were Sunday in allowing a Kerry team performing way below its best score 1-18, 1-16 of which was from play? Surely not? Armagh's attacking play, epitomised by Jamie Clarke's movement and some outstanding long-range shooting, was the difference.

Kerry got a "bonus point" for beating Galway seemingly, due to Galway's proximity to them in the ranking - they were ranked 5th last week before the Kerry game, despite being totally outplayed at home by Roscommon and playing terribly. They then beat a Donegal team that put in probably their worst performance since 2010. Any system that has this Galway team ranked 5th in the country at ANY point in the last few years is just totally flawed.

Cork we're almost heading for Div 3 this year at one point. They are in disarray and almost lost to Waterford, scraped by Tipperary and got hammered by Kerry.
They produce their best performance of the year and take a division 1 team and finalists last year, to extra time, losing by 1, and they LOSE points on the rankings? Explain that to me?

I submit, some of ye need to start watching games more rather than looking at raw data and some prediction model. I'll leave ye to it.

I would be the first to accept that the model is not perfect, that there will always be cases of teams being too high or too low in the rankings based on which teams they were selected to play against in the championship (leagues tend to even things out, even if, apparently, nobody takes the league seriously!!). It is set up to ensure, for the most part, that the team that wins the All-Ireland will be the number one team.

Changes week to week during the championship can be controversial, but as some posters have mentioned, position at the end of the championship year is pretty much close to many people's opinion.

In general, a cold, data-only driven look at the ranking of sports team is not for all tastes, it takes the subjectivity and biais and personal opinions completely out of it, and for some, those are more important. To each, their own.

laoisman11 · 03-08-2017 3:38pm

This week's predictions attached.....

Things of note:

Both Tyrone's and Armagh's championship form have been great in 2017; something's got to give here
Dublin have performed poorly against Monaghan in their last 3 meetings, albeit they were all league games
There is actually a negative correlation between Dublin's score difference and rating difference when playing Monaghan, i.e. they greater the rating difference, the less Dublin have won by
Mayo seem to be performing in cycles of 2 since March: 2 games worse than expected followed by 2 games better than expected - they have just finished the 2 games worse than expected cycle

tl;dr
Tyrone by 3.0
Dublin by 6.0
Mayo by 3.2

seligehgit · 03-08-2017 5:04pm

laoisman11 wrote: »

This week's predictions attached.....

Things of note:
Both Tyrone's and Armagh's championship form have been great in 2017; something's got to give here

Dublin have performed poorly against Monaghan in their last 3 meetings, albeit they were all league games

There is actually a negative correlation between Dublin's score difference and rating difference when playing Monaghan, i.e. they greater the rating difference, the less Dublin have won by

Mayo seem to be performing in cycles of 2 since March: 2 games worse than expected followed by 2 games better than expected - they have just finished the 2 games worse than expected cycle

tl;dr
Tyrone by 3.0
Dublin by 6.0
Mayo by 3.2

It would be typical if that was the case.Why could'nt it be a cycle of three games?:D

kupus · 03-08-2017 7:24pm

so you are saying two games in a row for mayo and we do better than expected,
hmm
so thats QF and SF, we beat the head of the rossies, destroy kerry back to the stone age and then we get to final and then I should bet everything on opposition whether it's Monaghan tyrone dublin armagh

Yeah, sounds about right lol.

mono_mac · 03-08-2017 9:23pm

Jayop wrote:

You're reading too much into a minor points increase for kerry in a week Dublin didn't play. When Dublin inevitably hammer. Monaghan then the difference will most likely be greater than it was before Kerry played Galway. You can't compare until the end of a round of fixtures.

Dublin will not hammer MONAGHAN...mark my words

Jayop · 03-08-2017 9:34pm

mono_mac wrote: »

Dublin will not hammer MONAGHAN...mark my words

Define a hammering? The dubs will win by at least 5 and while it might be that close on the sdoresheet it'll be a comprehensive win.

theoneeyedman · 03-08-2017 10:34pm

mono_mac wrote: »

Dublin will not hammer MONAGHAN...mark my words

Dunno if this is the right thread for discussing predictions etc (I don't want to derail an excellent thread laoisman) but monaghan defensively are weaker than before IMHO, the whyllie boys don't appear to be at the height of their powers anymore.

Syferus · 04-08-2017 2:34am

kupus wrote: »

so you are saying two games in a row for mayo and we do better than expected,
hmm
so thats QF and SF, we beat the head of the rossies, destroy kerry back to the stone age and then we get to final and then I should bet everything on opposition whether it's Monaghan tyrone dublin armagh

Yeah, sounds about right lol.

Mayo beating Kerry in the championship sounds about as right as mayonnaise ice cream.

BonnieSituation · 04-08-2017 9:37am

Jayop wrote: »

Define a hammering? The dubs will win by at least 5 and while it might be that close on the sdoresheet it'll be a comprehensive win.

SO a hammering? :P

Blackjack · 09-08-2017 8:37am

Be interesting to see how close things are between the top 4 going into the semi Finals. Not expecting any change in the order of rankings given the 3 quarter finals played ended in hammerings, so unless there are additional bonus points for higher margin of victory (I don't believe there are) it will just be a change in the order of the losing sides perhaps.

laoisman11 · 10-08-2017 8:39pm

Hard to believe that there are only 3 games left in the championship (barring draws, of course). It feels like it is almost over before it has begun and it will be interesting to see if the Super 8’s will extend the ecstacy, or prolong the agony, next summer.

There was a lot of talk in the last few weeks about the big 3, and how Mayo have now joined the big 3 after their dismantling of Roscommon. I’m sure it’s a stat that came up elsewhere, but with the exception of Kerry in 2012, Mayo, Kerry and Dublin have got to the semi-final stage every year for the last 7 years.

With regard to last weekend’s results:

Both Tyrone and Mayo gained rating points following their bonus point wins over Armagh and Roscommon, respectively.
There is a huge gap from 4th back to 5th, although this could change slightly if Tyrone, Kerry or Mayo get a big beating in their semi-finals.
Monaghan and Galway were the inadvertent winners from Armagh and Roscommon's downfalls.
No rating points were exchanged in the Dublin - Monaghan game

*Teams in bold still active in the championship
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 106.11 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 104.86 | 0.00
3 | = | Tyrone | 103.01 | 2.34
4 | = | Mayo | 101.70 | 3.01
5 | ▲ 2 | Monaghan | 92.65 | 0.00
6 | ▲ 2 | Galway | 92.56 | 0.00
7 | ▼ | Armagh | 91.14 | -2.34
8 | ▼ 3 | Roscommon | 90.73 | -3.01
9 | = | Kildare | 89.75 | 0.00
10 | = | Donegal | 88.07 | 0.00
11 | = | Cork | 87.73 | 0.00
12 | = | Tipperary | 84.86 | 0.00
13 | = | Clare | 84.69 | 0.00
14 | = | Meath | 83.26 | 0.00
15 | = | Down | 82.42 | 0.00
16 | = | Cavan | 81.54 | 0.00
17 | = | Westmeath | 80.68 | 0.00
18 | = | Derry | 79.16 | 0.00
19 | = | Longford | 78.05 | 0.00
20 | = | Sligo | 76.76 | 0.00
21 | = | Fermanagh | 74.62 | 0.00
22 | = | Offaly | 73.36 | 0.00
23 | = | Carlow | 73.10 | 0.00
24 | = | Laois | 73.06 | 0.00
25 | = | Wexford | 70.88 | 0.00
26 | = | Louth | 68.87 | 0.00
27 | = | Antrim | 68.71 | 0.00
28 | = | Limerick | 65.40 | 0.00
29 | = | Leitrim | 64.79 | 0.00
30 | = | New York | 57.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 57.11 | 0.00
32 | = | Wicklow | 55.89 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 53.77 | 0.00

Jayop · 10-08-2017 9:50pm

Really hard to argue with that top 10 order. Maybe Tyrone and Mayo could be switched around but I guess given Mayo's bad results against Galway, Derry and the Ross draw it's probably right enough in theory. Donegal have fallen off a cliff and it's amazing that 10th is probably about right.

elefant · 11-08-2017 8:34am

ciarriaithuaidh wrote: »

Were Kildare any less "wide open" than Galway were Sunday in allowing a Kerry team performing way below its best score 1-18, 1-16 of which was from play? Surely not? Armagh's attacking play, epitomised by Jamie Clarke's movement and some outstanding long-range shooting, was the difference.

Kerry got a "bonus point" for beating Galway seemingly, due to Galway's proximity to them in the ranking - they were ranked 5th last week before the Kerry game, despite being totally outplayed at home by Roscommon and playing terribly. They then beat a Donegal team that put in probably their worst performance since 2010. Any system that has this Galway team ranked 5th in the country at ANY point in the last few years is just totally flawed.

Cork we're almost heading for Div 3 this year at one point. They are in disarray and almost lost to Waterford, scraped by Tipperary and got hammered by Kerry.
They produce their best performance of the year and take a division 1 team and finalists last year, to extra time, losing by 1, and they LOSE points on the rankings? Explain that to me?

I submit, some of ye need to start watching games more rather than looking at raw data and some prediction model. I'll leave ye to it.

Regardless of the fact that your subjective analysis rightly has zero impact on how the ranking table works, I disagree with pretty much all of it. It's very basic and knee-jerk.

The fact you feel that Kildare should have been rewarded for losing to a team that didn't get out of division three this year, whereas Kerry shouldn't have seen a bump for a comprehensive win over the division 2 winners, says it all about your 'reality on the ground'!

Westernyelp · 11-08-2017 8:45am

It's funny how some people can't separate statistics from emotion

lostcat · 11-08-2017 9:55am

Looks odd to see three Connacht teams and only one Munster team in the top 10....but probably feels about right given this years championship...

blanch152 · 11-08-2017 11:25am

A couple of things stand out for me:

- the Championship only starts now, the top four are way ahead

- only three Leinster teams in the top 16, it gets worse and worse.

Boom__Boom · 11-08-2017 2:36pm

In terms of a comparison between league places next year and the ranking table.

The 8 teams in Division 1 are currently ranked 1,2,3,4,5,6,9,10 (even though the ranking order may chance all 6 of Kerry, Dublin, Mayo, Tyrone, Monaghan and Galway will be in Division 1 next year.

The 8 teams in Division 2 are currently ranked 8,11,12,13,14,15,16,26

The 8 teams in Division 3 are currently ranked 7,17,18,19,20,21,22,25

The 8 teams in Division 4 are currently ranked 23, 24, 27, 28, 29, 31, 32, 33

Armagh and Louth are the two big anomalies - Armagh still in Division 3 next year but ranked 7th on the table. whole Louth are in Division 2 but ranked 26th.

Overall the league results this year seemed to do a very good job in terms of predicting whereabouts teams would end up after the championship. I know that the league results are obviously a sizable enough factor in creating the table, but it would be interesting to see how previous years compare to this.

danganabu · 11-08-2017 2:39pm

Boom__Boom wrote: »

In terms of a comparison between league places next year and the ranking table.

The 8 teams in Division 1 are currently ranked 1,2,3,4,5,6,9,10 (even though the ranking order may chance all 6 of Kerry, Dublin, Mayo, Tyrone, Monaghan and Galway will be in Division 1 next year.

The 8 teams in Division 2 are currently ranked 8,11,12,13,14,15,16,26

The 8 teams in Division 3 are currently ranked 7,17,18,19,20,21,22,25

The 8 teams in Division 4 are currently ranked 23, 24, 27, 28, 29, 31, 32, 33

Armagh and Louth are the two big anomalies - Armagh still in Division 3 next year but ranked 7th on the table. whole Louth are in Division 2 but ranked 26th.

And in the case of Armagh they were seconds away from Div. 2 and will be strong favs to be promoted next year.

Mr Starman · 12-08-2017 6:01pm

If ever there was a team living on past glories it's Armagh, but some how the media seem to love them. They might make more progress if they didn't keep believing their own hype every year.

Anyway the reality check is they got blown out the gate by Tyrone with an 18 point defeat and.....yeah they're still in division 3.

The media still loves them, but the average GAA fan knows the real story, They're sh*te!

Blackjack · 12-08-2017 8:45pm

Mr Starman wrote: »

If ever there was a team living on past glories it's Armagh, but some how the media seem to love them. They might make more progress if they didn't keep believing their own hype every year.

Anyway the reality check is they got blown out the gate by Tyrone with an 18 point defeat and.....yeah they're still in division 3.

The media still loves them, but the average GAA fan knows the real story, They're sh*te!

I put it down to the McGeeney factor myself. Media seem to rate him very highly, which given his lack of achievement at management level is a bit surprising.

OldMrBrennan83 · 12-08-2017 8:47pm

This post has been deleted.

Stoner · 13-08-2017 12:08pm

Well Kildare took a serious dive when he left.

keane2097 · 13-08-2017 1:03pm

Any player who is ever involved with him you hear interviewed seems to give him the most glowing praise imaginable. Whatever about his success relative to the squads he's worked with I'd say he is a hell of a guy.

BonnieSituation · 13-08-2017 2:16pm

Stoner wrote: »

Well Kildare took a serious dive when he left.

keane2097 wrote: »

Any player who is ever involved with him you hear interviewed seems to give him the most glowing praise imaginable. Whatever about his success relative to the squads he's worked with I'd say he is a hell of a guy.

I don't think it's an accident that he "holds onto" these jobs as some people here seem to think. He improved Kildare and was needlessly thrown out on his ear and look what happened to them. The QF v Kerry a couple of years back was one of the most abject performances I've ever seen in HQ. It made Tommy Walsh look like a world beater again.

So to see the slow progress he's making with Armagh shows that he is doing things with them but look at the state of Armagh football when he took over.

The media were bigging Armagh up but I don't think anyone with a modicum of a notion would have thought that Tyrone wouldn't turn them over.

He was in charge in 2015 when they got promoted to Division 2 and then they get relegates in 2016 on points difference (4th to 7th place all ended on 6 points) and then in 2017 was a few seconds from promotion.

Armagh will canter into Division 2 next year and no doubt the experience of this year will stand to them in the Championship.

J Cheever Loophole · 15-08-2017 3:12pm

Mr Starman wrote: »

If ever there was a team living on past glories it's Armagh, but some how the media seem to love them. They might make more progress if they didn't keep believing their own hype every year.

Anyway the reality check is they got blown out the gate by Tyrone with an 18 point defeat and.....yeah they're still in division 3.

The media still loves them, but the average GAA fan knows the real story, They're sh*te!

I was in the process of reading your post with the intention of actually debating with you until I came to your last phrase and suddenly realized meaningful debate really isn't an option.

danganabu · 15-08-2017 3:22pm

Mr Starman wrote: »

If ever there was a team living on past glories it's Armagh, but the average GAA fan knows the real story, They're sh*te!

J Cheever Loophole wrote: »

I was in the process of reading your post with the intention of actually debating with you until I came to your last phrase and suddenly realized meaningful debate really isn't an option.

The irony being that he is from Galway

blowitupref · 15-08-2017 6:41pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I don't think it's an accident that he

Armagh will canter into Division 2 next year and no doubt the experience of this year will stand to them in the Championship.

I thought Armagh would do that this year yet Louth were the first promoted team and they then allowed Tipp to grab the 2nd promotion spot on the last day with a late goal. Derry and Fermanagh will be pushing hard for promotion back to div 2 in 2018 i can imagine and Westmeath maybe too.

laoisman11 · 17-08-2017 7:39pm

Prediction model output for the first of the semi-finals attached.

Kerry's form has been better than expected in this championship, with the exception of the Clare game, whereas Mayo's has been topsy turvy. However, Mayo have had 7 games to establish their, at times, nerve-wracking run to the semis, while Kerry have barely been tested. They will be severely tested here.

Really looking forward to this one!

tl;dr Kerry by 2.0

Jayop · 17-08-2017 8:40pm

Would be great at the end of the year to calculate how many results the model got right in percentage terms and of those what was the average difference between predictions and actual score.

BonnieSituation · 17-08-2017 8:52pm

Jayop wrote: »

Would be great at the end of the year if Laoisman was to calculate how many results the model got right in percentage terms and of those what was the average difference between predictions and actual score.

FTFY

Football ranking table

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