Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

tryfix wrote: »

Big chance for Australia to make a name for himself next week in the Juddmonte. If he's the horse they say he is then he'll put lengths between himself and Telescope and Mukhadram. A 2l win over them would put him in pole position for champion 3yo.

He would want to be winning with his head in his chest. The older boys are fairly weak , mukhadram probably the poorest winner of the eclipse in a long time and telescope is not even a group one winner. It's a weak enough renewal.

paddyisreal wrote: »

He would want to be winning with his head in his chest. The older boys are fairly weak , mukhadram probably the poorest winner of the eclipse in a long time and telescope is not even a group one winner. It's a weak enough renewal.

It's certainly on paper a better renewal than last year's when Declaration Of War won it by 1 3/4l from Trading Leather. There's not much in it on form with Mukhadram's Eclipse win being a 2l beating of Trading Leather.

There's also the problem for Australia that he only beat Kingston Hill 1 1/4l at Epsom and Mukhadram beat the same horse by 4l in the Eclipse.

How do we know he is a stayer?

Hard to get too excited about the Arc Trials today.


Here's the Moulin as well.

Gregk961 wrote: »

Still wouldnt be put off Treve by any means. As mentioned above the jockey didnt look to bothered about getting her head in front, i find that a much more encouraging display than when beaten by the fugue and magician (cant remember the race name)

I'd agree that she ran well despite being defeated, she had them covered but didn't go through with it as if something was hurting her or she wouldn't let herself down on the ground. I'd be more worried that it'd be hard to win the race two years in a row than with her ability to turn up and run well.

Anybody think Eagle Top has any chance of turning up 25/1 looks big but he probably won't turn up.

Andalucia wrote: »

I think Ruler of the World really benefitted from a super Frankie ride, can't see him being good enough to win it

could be Japan's best chance of bagging a win this year, two very good chances in Harp Star and Just a Way

interesting to see how it cuts up, expect a few more absentees - Treve looked gone at the game to me, Taghrooda had a hard race the last day, very hard to keep going to the well with these good fillies

Just interested as to why you think Treve is gone at the game?

Andalucia wrote: »

The reason I think Treve is gone is her last run in particular, even allowing for the fast ground, she didn't travel for me, was quite sluggish, and then hung as if she's hurting,

Agree with the way she has travelled especially in the POW stakes you could tell by looking at her in the early stages of the race that all wasn't well with her. I thought she did remarkably well to finish so close to The Fugue that day.

rossom wrote: »

A few months ago this looked like it could be the best Arc for a long time. Looks like being a poor renewal now though.

Hard to know, this is an exceptional crop of 3yos, but!

Australia who won the best trial in the Epsom Derby should be making his mark in history by winning it and is instead faffing around at 10f.

Taghrooda who has a key trial in the King George in the bag has left us all puzzled with her latest run.

Ectot could hose up, as could Avenir Certain or We Are or Harp Star, or Tapestry could spoil the party again. It's a field full of fillies and what are the odds that a filly could win it for 4 years in a row?

Ruler Of The World could do a Dylan Thomas by improving at 4 to take it, which would be a downer cause we're looking for something exceptional and the simple answer may be that the best horse in the world Just A Way will win it from last year's best horse in the World Treve.

It's a cracker but figuring it out at this stage is nigh on impossible, and don't forget the quality stayer Gold Ship from Japan and Ivanhowe from Germany and wtf is Epipheneaia to be as low as 13/1 and Dermot Weld can't be sending Free Eagle so what's he doing at 11/1 in the betting and then there's some other odd ball Frenchies who won races like the Grand Prix De Paris etc.

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

The question surrounding Just a way is. where will he run his prep race ? He hasn't ran since the 8th of June He holds no other entries besides the Arc. meaning he would have been off for 4 months. You're off for 4 months and expect to win the 2nd richest race in the world ? NO THANKS

I wouldn't mind him being off the track since June or not having a prep race, the 2,000 Guineas for instance is regularly won by horses who haven't raced for over 6 months against horses who've had the advantage of Trial races. The part I'd worry about with him is taking his 130 rating too seriously. As a 5yo he suddenly improved from 123 to 130 because he won the Dubai Duty Free. Still he has some very impressive form in Japan, though he has no 12f or 11f wins to his name and hasn't a stout pedigree, he's much improved this year and has being staying on strongly in 9 and 10F races. He's still worth a nibble at the 8/1 available because his recent form is top class and his price will disappear long before race day.

Gregory Benoist has chosen to ride Ectot over Avenir Certain in the Arc. Lemaire will ride Avenir.

diomed wrote: »

113 horses to pick from.
http://www9.france-galop.com/fgweb/domaines/courses/courses_calendrier.aspx

Bounty Owners does not apply in this event and Breeders premiums shall be as follows: 135.000 (1), 54.000 (2nd), 2 7000 (3rd), 13.500 (4th), 6.250 (5th). For stallions and mares 3 years old and above. Weight: 3 year s, 56 k. ; 4 years and above, 59 k.1 / 2. Payment to the chicken owners: 7,200 to engagement on May 14 or 120,000 to the commitment on Oct. 2. Initial package: Tuesday 30 September to November h.30. The race will be preceded by a parade. A work of art will be available to the owner and a souvenir to the coach, the jockey, the rider training and the breeder of the winning horse. Maximum 20 runners. The number of starters will be reduced by eliminating horses which the service of handicappers FRANCE GALOP either assigned the lowest Handicap values.

Makes sense I suppose. Sure, who else would ya make the payment to?

diomed wrote: »

Deep Impact; El Condor Pasa; Orfevre; Nakayama Festa; Hiruno D'Amour; Manhattan Cafe; Meisho Samson; Victoire Pisa; Aventino.

Is 2014 the year they win? If they do it might start a Japanese invasion of European Group races.

Doubtful it will cause an invasion. Price money in europe besides the arc is a long way behind japanese racing. If just the way stays it wins.

Aob has two runners left in the arc. The best horse he ever trained is too good for the arc apparently. The stakes system in europe has racing ****ed . Its like boxing with none of the top contenders competing against each other. Kingman retiring another one . Basically a load of flat track bullies. You have to admire the Japanese sending over there best and having a go .

paddyisreal wrote: »

Aob has two runners left in the arc. The best horse he ever trained is too good for the arc apparently. The stakes system in europe has racing ****ed . Its like boxing with none of the top contenders competing against each other. Kingman retiring another one . Basically a load of flat track bullies. You have to admire the Japanese sending over there best and having a go .

It's not a huge surprise though. The Ballydoyle team seemed to indicate that they'd be concentrating on 10 furlong races for Australia after he won The Derby.

Gringo180 wrote: »

More I look at the field the more Ruler Of The World jumps out at me. Im a huge fan of Treve but I dont think she is anywhere near the level she was last season. She would blitz these if she was.

It would be a poor enough Arc if Ruler Of The World was good enough to win it. The stats are always favourable towards French-trained 3yo's. I started following this blindly about 20 years ago and I've been rewarded plenty of times. Ectot is the one who stands out for me.

Just noticing Chicquita has been left in by O Brien. Can't believe she is as big as 33/1. Ran an absolute blinder behind Tarfasha on her reappearance after 14 months off the course and over a trip that would of been a shade on the sharp side for her. This filly is a bit special, every time she ran last year she was green, and still managed to win an Oaks and would of got closer to Treve in the French Oaks only for veering across the track and running extremely green. The type of filly to improve at 4 and by Montjeu she will relish the 1m4f. She could lack the experience but shes the one I will be backing each way at huge odds.