The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

wexie · 29-10-2014 12:07am

cabledude wrote: »

http://www.beat102103.com/news-and-sport/experts-issue-warning-about-the-worst-winter-in-a-century

Worst winter in a century just around the corned. 'Experts' in the UK have said so.

WOOHOO!!! break out the .....the eh....hot chocolate?

maquiladora · 29-10-2014 12:10am

cabledude wrote: »

http://www.beat102103.com/news-and-sport/experts-issue-warning-about-the-worst-winter-in-a-century

Worst winter in a century just around the corned. 'Experts' in the UK have said so.

The "expert" is a clown with a private website that sells the exact same shyte story to the UK tabloids every single winter.

wexie · 29-10-2014 12:17am

maquiladora wrote: »

The "expert" is a clown with a private website that sells the exact same shyte story to the UK tabloids every single winter.

hey man, don't harsh my mellow

Kermit.de.frog · 29-10-2014 5:43am

UKMO brings closer the possibility of much colder conditions next week but probably temporarily. A transient ridge building toward Greenland gives just enough time and enough energy diving south to bring a low pressure col on to the continent facilitated by an amplified jet stream that sees cold air ejected from the Artic just about impacting us (or what passes for impacting us at this time of year).

This looks short lived but without jet stream data it's hard to call. It's entirely possible that the secondary LP to the west could dive south east with high pressure to our north resulting in an easterly or northeasterly. The ECM will shed more light later.

The 00z GFS, whilst moving somewhat in this direction, is not so enthusiastic (yet).

What makes the above situation so good (or bad depending on perspective!) is that the core polar vortex (the deep purple colours) is firmly to the east of Greenland and Canada which is exactly what we want.

Lucreto · 29-10-2014 6:55am

First day of frost for me. I missed these mornings.

force eleven · 29-10-2014 7:21am

Met E going for much colder weather next week. Risk of wintry showers in the East. All aboard!

Rikand · 29-10-2014 9:50am

there's white stuff on the ground!

Frost...but still, it's white!

wildefalcon · 29-10-2014 10:08am

Tee shirt weather last night - River Severn valley. Easily 15 degrees, which was good as I was working on some freshly poured concrete - last thing I wanted was frost.

leahyl · 29-10-2014 10:08am

force eleven wrote: »

Met E going for much colder weather next week. Risk of wintry showers in the East. All aboard!

It started with a wintry shower....:D

Metmaster · 29-10-2014 1:00pm

The start of next week is looking cold with frosty nights and wintry showers hitting the east.Hopefully the start of a cold,frosty,snowy winter ahead.

Loughc · 29-10-2014 3:46pm

force eleven wrote: »

Met E going for much colder weather next week. Risk of wintry showers in the East. All aboard!

All abroad the hype train

http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-weather-forecasters-predict-country-4529710

Tabnabs · 29-10-2014 3:48pm

How long before the red-tops (or even the "respectable media") start putting out images such as

Rikand · 29-10-2014 4:11pm

Tabnabs wrote: »

How long before the red-tops (or even the "respectable media") start putting out images such as

That'll be the Military Road in a couple of weeks time!

wexie · 29-10-2014 4:58pm

Rikand wrote: »

That'll be the Military Road in a couple of weeks time!

No it won't, there's no equipment in the country that could sweep/shovel that.
It'll just be eejits in X5's and Range Rover sports up there getting stuck and the mountain rescue lads giving out to them

Kermit.de.frog · 29-10-2014 5:15pm

Significant upgrade on the 12z GFS for coldies for the start of next week. And with a cold northerly coming over seasonally warm seas showers would be widespread too so we could well see some early sleet and snow showers. But let's not count our chickens just yet

Creative Juices · 29-10-2014 5:18pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Net Weather - http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Weather Online - http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-b...&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

The Weather Outlook - http://theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Meteociel - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

Wetterzentrale - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

DMI (Hirlam) - http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm

Wetter3 - http://www.wetter3.de/

Westwind - http://www.westwind.ch/

Weathercharts - http://www.weathercharts.org

MeteoCenter.eu (WRF) - http://www.meteocenter.eu/

Which is the best site for the charts that people tend to post here regularly and the 12 GFS that was mentioned above by Kermit?

maquiladora · 29-10-2014 5:19pm

Creative Juices wrote: »

Which is the best site for the charts that people tend to post here regularly and the 12 gfz that was mentioned above?

I prefer Meteociel mostly.

Riskymove · 29-10-2014 5:42pm

maquiladora wrote: »

The "expert" is a clown with a private website that sells the exact same shyte story to the UK tabloids every single winter.

At the bottom of the Exacta home page you’ll read about their exploits; how in their opinion they got it correct several months in advance. These are bordering on paranoid rants to justify their existence. The majority of the time they got it wrong. Why do they do this? Well there’s no surprise is there, commercial reason i.e. money and then there’s ego, in making a name for themselves.

http://www.thefrontpoint.com/2013/12/fantasy-weather-forecast-dont-believe_30.html

Kermit.de.frog · 29-10-2014 5:47pm

Creative Juices wrote: »

Which is the best site for the charts that people tend to post here regularly and the 12 GFS that was mentioned above by Kermit?

WZ is good. Try here. Timeline and different variables at the top.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn14417.gif

Next run updates circa 21:30.

Larbre34 · 29-10-2014 5:48pm

Please, lets not give these clowns even an acknowledgement this year. The tabloids will do what they do best and people will talk about it on coffee breaks and buses. Lets just get on with letting our own pro/ams and reporters from around the Country do what they do best.

maquiladora · 29-10-2014 5:58pm

Looking at the UKMO at 144, that could be blizzard conditions for parts of Scotland and even high ground in NI then later.

That would be a short, sharp shock to the system for early November! :pac:

144 hours though so....likely to change.

U144-21UK.GIF?29-17

irish snowblower · 29-10-2014 6:23pm

wexie wrote: »

No it won't, there's no equipment in the country that could sweep/shovel that.
It'll just be eejits in X5's and Range Rover sports up there getting stuck and the mountain rescue lads giving out to them

I like to think I could try (Irish snowblower on youtube)

highdef · 29-10-2014 6:26pm

The latest GFS charts that are rolling in are also going with a very similar scenario with what looks like some sort of polar low moving in a N - S direction right through the country. It's a very perfect set-up and is highly unlikely to pan out exactly that way but never say never!!!

wexie · 29-10-2014 6:48pm

irish snowblower wrote: »

I like to think I could try (Irish snowblower on youtube)

Geez, what'dya get that for? You're probably better equipped than most county councils?!

irish snowblower · 29-10-2014 6:52pm

wexie wrote: »

Geez, what'dya get that for? You're probably better equipped than most county councils?!

A moment of madness If it ever snows I will but up a better video of it actually working

wexie · 29-10-2014 6:55pm

irish snowblower wrote: »

A moment of madness If it ever snows I will but up a better video of it actually working

I would be delighted if you got lots of use out of it this winter

Video · 29-10-2014 7:20pm

Niceeeeeeee

hatrickpatrick · 29-10-2014 7:25pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

But let's not count our chickens just yet

I disapprove of this remark, that's just not how things are done around here

sjb25 · 29-10-2014 7:31pm

irish snowblower wrote: »

I like to think I could try (Irish snowblower on youtube)

Coooooooooooooool

gugsy · 29-10-2014 7:38pm

Snow is a coming

leahyl · 29-10-2014 7:44pm

highdef wrote: »

.............with a very similar scenario with what looks like some sort of polar low moving in a N - S direction right through the country........... !!

:-O!!

Kermit.de.frog · 29-10-2014 7:45pm

ECM is ok, this folds quickly enough but it is about trends and we can work with this

red_bairn · 29-10-2014 8:12pm

Lucreto wrote:

Once it melts gets cold again and more snow.

Actually that is what happened when I lived in Korea. Sticks for 3days, melts a bit and snows a bit again a few days later. Similar to their summer of 3 rainy days and 4 sunny clear days.

Iancar29 · 29-10-2014 8:25pm

gugsy wrote: »

Snow is could be coming

Fixed that for ya :P

ECM says no folks , and we all no which is , for now anyways , the more reliable one.

Will be an interesting few days of model watching none the less

gugsy · 29-10-2014 8:50pm

^^^^^^^ its the excited part me thinking it will come and the head knowing it prob wont.

Gonzo · 29-10-2014 9:17pm

that situation would produce little or nothing for us in Leinster, bit early in the season anyway for something decent. We have potentially mid November-early March all to play for and then ninja snow chances all the way to end of April

Rikand · 29-10-2014 9:38pm

Gonzo wrote: »

that situation would produce little or nothing for us in Leinster, bit early in the season anyway for something decent. We have potentially mid November-early March all to play for and then ninja snow chances all the way to end of April

Doesn't look too bad for Leinster

Iancar29 · 29-10-2014 10:40pm

What the CFS was showing back on the 9th ....

snowstorm445 · 30-10-2014 2:00am

Rikand wrote: »

Doesn't look too bad for Leinster

Do my eyes deceive me? Snow for CORK?!

leahyl · 30-10-2014 9:25am

From met.ie: "Early indications suggest that Wednesday is likely to be cool and mostly dry, but mild and unsettled weather will return after midweek"

:(

force eleven · 30-10-2014 9:36am

leahyl wrote: »

From met.ie: "Early indications suggest that Wednesday is likely to be cool and mostly dry, but mild and unsettled weather will return after midweek"

:(

Yep, must have been the Eagle preparing yesterdays teaser forecast and Gerry Murphy on today....

Sheldons Brain · 30-10-2014 12:08pm

Its cold up North
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/northern-ireland-set-for-its-coldest-winter-in-years-30703372.html

yorlum11 · 30-10-2014 12:20pm

Sheldons Brain wrote:

Its cold up North

Same rehashed story. Exacta sensationalism.

wildefalcon · 30-10-2014 12:23pm

yorlum11 wrote: »

Same rehashed story. Exacta sensationalism.

Unlike this thread which is iced into cold hard facts?

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 30-10-2014 12:54pm

wildefalcon wrote: »

Unlike this thread which is iced into cold hard facts?

This thread has opinions and analysis

Exacta "forecasts" only contain sensationalism to make money

patneve2 · 30-10-2014 1:37pm

Well I must say that I am impressed by snow cover over Eurasia. 2014 falls into the top three years snow cover wise (as well as 2009, 1976). Last year also saw good snow cover, however this was offset by a large melt around this period. Hopefully we will see some Siberian high action later on in the season. For those that don't know, high snow cover over Siberia during October is linked to a higher likely hood of Arctic blocking during the winter season.

gugsy · 30-10-2014 2:31pm

There is currenty a fight between a high over the Azores and the lows coming from Greenland on the model after the 6th nov. Who'll win out?

Iancar29 · 30-10-2014 3:52pm

Just imagine this was the forecast for tonight

pad199207 · 30-10-2014 3:56pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Just imagine this was the forecast for tonight

That should be framed and hung on the boards wall!

Alanstrainor · 30-10-2014 4:08pm

Anyone know the date of that forecast?

The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

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