WC 2014 Brasil; Starts June 12th 2014

Fowler87 · 20-05-2014 12:21pm

Anyone get paid out on Henderson to make England squad yet or any other squad bet for that matter?

discombobulate · 20-05-2014 12:25pm

Fowler87 wrote: »

Anyone get paid out on Henderson to make England squad yet or any other squad bet for that matter?

Yep. Paddy Power paid me anyway

inforfun · 20-05-2014 12:26pm

Fowler87 wrote: »

Anyone get paid out on Henderson to make England squad yet or any other squad bet for that matter?

Squads have to be confirmed to Fifa june 2nd.
Dont think you ll get paid before that day.

Fowler87 · 20-05-2014 12:41pm

discombobulate wrote: »

Yep. Paddy Power paid me anyway

Waiting on ladbrokes myself. Id say as Infor said, 2nd June will likely be the date

Austria! · 20-05-2014 1:08pm

Fowler87 wrote: »

Anyone get paid out on Henderson to make England squad yet or any other squad bet for that matter?

yeah, william hill and bet victor paid me on squads already.

neil.p.b · 20-05-2014 9:06pm

Cameron, Australia, Costa Rica and Honduras all to finish with 0 points. 108/1. Decent punt.

clickerquicklic · 20-05-2014 9:58pm

Laid a very large lump on Brazil at 4.1
2 reasons
Won't be using my exchange cash for much else between this and that and think bookies will boost Brazil to 7/2 and 4/1 happy to take it as a trade and get out at ~4.8

Warper · 20-05-2014 10:21pm

Cant believe Belgium are 5th favs for this, i think they have zero chance of winning

tomaussie · 20-05-2014 10:55pm

Warper wrote: »

Cant believe Belgium are 5th favs for this, i think they have zero chance of winning

I can see them going home before the second round.

Bateman · 20-05-2014 11:34pm

clickerquicklic wrote: »

Laid a very large lump on Brazil at 4.1
2 reasons
Won't be using my exchange cash for much else between this and that and think bookies will boost Brazil to 7/2 and 4/1 happy to take it as a trade and get out at ~4.8

A couple of firms have already done their offers on Brazil, I'd be surprised if there was any sort of sustained 4s available between now and the off.

I like a Brazil-Mexico straight forecast at 2/1.

Hotale.com · 20-05-2014 11:37pm

I can't believe Uruguay's odds, any team with Cavani and Suarez (in the form of his life) has a serious chance of winning the WC.

Bateman · 20-05-2014 11:40pm

Hotale.com wrote: »

I can't believe Uruguay's odds, any team with Cavani and Suarez (in the form of his life) has a serious chance of winning the WC.

And Brazil fear them

Hotale.com · 20-05-2014 11:41pm

Bateman wrote: »

And Brazil fear them

Why's that...?

MaroonAndGreen · 21-05-2014 12:13am

To be honest if this cup wasnt hosted by Brazil I dont think they'd be anywhere near favourites. Its a bit dodgy for them having Fred as your no1 striker. If Neymar isnt in top form there gona be in trouble.

I wouldnt be backing Brazil

Hotale.com · 21-05-2014 12:18am

Uruguay to win the WC and Suarez to be top goal scorer is 66/1, not bad considering Uruguay on their own are 30/1, and for them to realistically have any chance of winning it Suarez (or Cavani) will have to score a lot of goals.

MaroonAndGreen · 21-05-2014 12:22am

Hotale.com wrote: »

Uruguay to win the WC and Suarez to be top goal scorer is 66/1, not bad considering Uruguay on their own are 30/1, and for them to realistically have any chance of winning it Suarez (or Cavani) will have to score a lot of goals.

They have a strong team all round. Muslera is a solid keeper, Godin and Caceres will be as good a centre half pairing at the tournament IMO.

Im not totally convinced by their midfield though, Gaston Ramirez is a good player no doubt but World Cup winning centre midfielder? Im not sure.

They certaintly have the best strikers in the tournament though with Suarez and Cavani.

30/1 is a good bet, if they get out of their tough group they'l surely do well.

Hotale.com · 21-05-2014 12:24am

MaroonAndGreen wrote: »

They have a strong team all round. Muslera is a solid keeper, Godin and Caceres will be as good a centre half pairing at the tournament IMO.

Im not totally convinced by their midfield though, Gaston Ramirez is a good player no doubt but World Cup winning centre midfielder? Im not sure.

They certaintly have the best strikers in the tournament though with Suarez and Cavani.

30/1 is a good bet, if they get out of their tough group they'l surely do well.

If they get out of their group I could see them being 3rd or 4th favourites, I'll definitely stick a fiver on them.

It's such an open tournament this time round, there's about 10 teams which are very closely matched!

fuzzydunlop85 · 21-05-2014 1:30am

Think Italy are seriously overpriced at 25-1. They've been here before and done it, solid defense and can grind out results if they get to the knockout phases.

Lucas Castroman · 21-05-2014 1:43am

fuzzydunlop85 wrote: »

Think Italy are seriously overpriced at 25-1. They've been here before and done it, solid defense and can grind out results if they get to the knockout phases.

+Balotelli as topscorer looks good at 33/1. He takes the penalties, is their main striker, guaranteed to play every match and Italy could last well into the tournament.

Nice odds on Croatia beating Brazil in the opening match - Croatia are going to have a seriously sexy midfield - Rakitic, Modric, Kovacic (who I suspect is going to be a revelation at this tournament if his recent performances for inter have been anything to go on)

Bateman · 21-05-2014 10:58am

Hotale.com wrote: »

Why's that...?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/worldcup2014/article-2628167/Why-England-shouldnt-underestimate-Uruguay-Neymar-introduces-Gabriella-Lenzi-Barcelona.html

It's kind of based on historical intangibles etc etc but Uruguay never have an inferiority complex when playing Brazil, almost every other team does/will

Deco99 · 21-05-2014 11:50am

I see very little mention of Germany and potential german top scorers, they are capable of getting 3/4 goals a game. Was happy enough to put my fiver on Reus/Germany Top scorer/Winner @125/1. Am i missing something glaringly obvious with that bet?

iLikeWaffles · 21-05-2014 12:27pm

Usually do a draw in work for World Cup. Everyone gets a team €10/20 each.

Anybody know of any similar draws. Something like last man standing or some sort of points system were even the crap teams could win you a few quid??

Hotale.com · 21-05-2014 12:32pm

Deco99 wrote: »

I see very little mention of Germany and potential german top scorers, they are capable of getting 3/4 goals a game. Was happy enough to put my fiver on Reus/Germany Top scorer/Winner @125/1. Am i missing something glaringly obvious with that bet?

That Reus isn't a striker maybe? He'll score goals but he'd have to have an amazing tournament to be top scorer

clickerquicklic · 21-05-2014 2:48pm

Bateman wrote: »

A couple of firms have already done their offers on Brazil, I'd be surprised if there was any sort of sustained 4s available between now and the off.

I like a Brazil-Mexico straight forecast at 2/1.

I don't think the maths adds up on them priced at 4 on betfair means they would have to average odds of 2/5 in each of there 4 games against possibly Spain Columbia Germany Argentina 1.06(group qualifications odds)*1.4*1.4*1.4*1.4 = 4.07 considering they are 1.36 to beat croatia id expect them to be minimum 1.4 against columbia and a good bit bigger against the other 3 , i think we will see a Brazil drift personally. If not ill manually acca Brazil odds in each game i'm sure it will work out more profitable.

Deco99 · 21-05-2014 3:48pm

i think i'm goin on the likelihood he could be germanys top scorer and that they'll go far. good value for a fiver i reckon

Bateman · 21-05-2014 4:13pm

Yeah I don't necessarily think you won't be able to get out of the trade with a small profit or no red but expecting them to drift to 5.0 outright might be a bit of a stretch, no matter how ordinary they appear in the early stages - and being honest I can see them getting a nervy 1-0 or 2-1 against Croatia.

I read a FourFourTwo preview of them today and it said that their age profile suggests that if they were to go a goal down in a knockout game they could cave.

Shanotheslayer · 21-05-2014 4:14pm

Right folks. My Write up for the WC so far. I will be doing a lot of cover bets as I feel there is still good value.

Dual Forecast:

Brazil-Mexico 13/10
Brazil-Croatia 13/10

Spain-Holland evens
Spain-Chile 13/10

Switzerland-France 6/5
Ecuador-France 2/1

Argentina-Bosnia 11/10

Colombia-Ivory Coast 15/8

Will be doubling the Argentina/Colombia dual forecast at 5/1

Straight Forecast

Brazil-Croatia 7/4
Brazil-Mexico 15/8

Spain Holland 2/1
Spain Chile 10/3

To finish Bottom

Cameroon 8/11
Greece 13/8

Round of Elimination:
Croatia Last 16 13/8
Mexico Last 16 13/8
Assuming either finish 2nd, and Spain finish first, can't see either beating Spain.

Chile Last 16 9/4
Holland Last 16 2/1
Assuming one of these will get 2nd place. Can't see either beating Brazil in Last 16

Switzerland Last 16 13/8
Ecuador Last 16 13/8
Assuming one of these get 2nd place. Argentina surely get first. Can't see either team beating Argies.

Top Goalscorers for there team:

Fred 3/1
Costa 5/2
Dzeko 6/4

Bateman · 21-05-2014 5:18pm

Very skinny price on Diego Costa especially considering his injury worries. Would he be on pens does anyone know?

I know everything has a price and consequently there is often value to be had on unlikely outcomes but dual forecast inferior value to straight forecasts in the Brazil group IMO

Shanotheslayer · 21-05-2014 10:42pm

Bateman wrote: »

Very skinny price on Diego Costa especially considering his injury worries. Would he be on pens does anyone know?

I know everything has a price and consequently there is often value to be had on unlikely outcomes but dual forecast inferior value to straight forecasts in the Brazil group IMO

Can't see Costa taking Penos ahead of Alonso? Or Xavi, think 1 of them usually take them

Hotale.com · 21-05-2014 10:52pm

Wouldn't surprise me if Costa doesn't start, Del Bosque is a bit of a fool.

Shanotheslayer · 21-05-2014 11:23pm

Hotale.com wrote: »

Wouldn't surprise me if Costa doesn't start, Del Bosque is a bit of a fool.

Bit of a fool?:/ Yeh his WC/Euros medals with Spain beg to differ.

bradlente · 21-05-2014 11:24pm

Isn't Fred no.1?Costa struggling with injury as well.

Never mind (Embarrassed face)

Hotale.com · 21-05-2014 11:25pm

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Bit of a fool?:/ Yeh his WC/Euros medals with Spain beg to differ.

His 4-6-0 formation in the Euros was a joke.

I know he's a good manager but he has made some fairly random decisions which seemed to be completely illogical.

Shanotheslayer · 21-05-2014 11:38pm

bradlente wrote: »

Isn't Fred no.1?Costa struggling with injury as well.

Never mind (Embarrassed face)

Is it not Bale? :pac:

Austria! · 21-05-2014 11:43pm

Hotale.com wrote: »

His 4-6-0 formation in the Euros was a joke.

I know he's a good manager but he has made some fairly random decisions which seemed to be completely illogical.

His thinking is largely influenced by the defeat to the US in 2009. He went without the double pivot and they were hit on the counter and lost to a much worse team. Been highly conservative since then, and his team don't get caught on the break like Barcelona do.

I think Del Bosque has underperformed myself to be honest. Despite having the best team by miles in the last few year a lot of Spain's victories were lucky. They could have gone out of the group if MAdzu scores a header in 2012, and portugal took them to penalties. Barely got past Paraguay in 2010 and had to rely on a great save to stop Robben in the final.

This year is different, in that Xavi is older now and possibly Alonso will find it hard to last the pace too. Del Bosque will have to adapt from his previous strategy, and he's a bit stuck in his ways. That could be Spain's undoing here.

Having said that, Costa will start.

Hotale.com · 21-05-2014 11:46pm

I think Spain have left their golden era go by without playing any beautiful football besides Euro 2008, at the last World Cup and Euros they did the job but they could have set the world alight with the players they had instead of just mastering the 1-0 win. I know winning's the aim, but it really is such a shame that they play as well as they could.

inforfun · 22-05-2014 8:07am

Suarez undergoing knee surgery and might be out of the WC.
(acc to Dutch football website)

Hotale.com · 22-05-2014 10:12am

inforfun wrote: »

Suarez undergoing knee surgery and might be out of the WC.
(acc to Dutch football website)

And I was gonna put down my Suarez and Uruguay double today :P

I don't really fancy anyone now after that, I had a serious feeling that Uruguay would win it. Might throw my fiver on Portugal now and just hope Ronaldo has the best WC performance of all time...

Austria! · 22-05-2014 11:58am

Lukaku top belgian scorer @ 3.5

easy group, sole striker.

Hotale.com · 22-05-2014 12:12pm

Austria! wrote: »

Lukaku top belgian scorer @ 3.5

easy group, sole striker.

Hazard? I know he plays wide but I could see him scoring more than Lukaku easily.

bradlente · 22-05-2014 6:33pm

Nice to see Pepe Rossi has made a recovery from his injury,hoping he'll make the team now as I went in a few times for him as top scorer early on.Some are with Skybet so the fúckers will mark it down a loss if he doesn't make it.Bit if competition up front with Immobile amongst others but hoping experience will see him through.Have ended up backing a top scorer with most of the underdogs now,have a heap of them.If someone does well unexpectedly then one or two should be there or thereabouts.
Just looking at the German team,I think that might be the greatest collection of midfield players in a team I've ever seen...

Austria! · 22-05-2014 7:20pm

Was looking at the odds on Italy top scorer, Ballotelli seems a bit skinny @2.75. Surely a fully fit Rossi or Immoble are just as likely to score. Mario didn't have a great season, so why should he start instead of Immoble?

Warper · 22-05-2014 9:01pm

Austria! wrote: »

His thinking is largely influenced by the defeat to the US in 2009. He went without the double pivot and they were hit on the counter and lost to a much worse team. Been highly conservative since then, and his team don't get caught on the break like Barcelona do.

I think Del Bosque has underperformed myself to be honest. Despite having the best team by miles in the last few year a lot of Spain's victories were lucky. They could have gone out of the group if MAdzu scores a header in 2012, and portugal took them to penalties. Barely got past Paraguay in 2010 and had to rely on a great save to stop Robben in the final.

This year is different, in that Xavi is older now and possibly Alonso will find it hard to last the pace too. Del Bosque will have to adapt from his previous strategy, and he's a bit stuck in his ways. That could be Spain's undoing here.

Having said that, Costa will start.

Wtf?? Ya winning the last 3 major international tournaments is underperforming?? A lot of Spains victories were lucky?? They must be the luckiest team of all time as they managed to win the last 3 major tournaments in a row. Their demolition of Italy in the Euro 12 final was an absolute masterclass and must rank as one of the best ever displays by an international team in a major final. But ya they are lucky

bradlente · 22-05-2014 10:24pm

Can't argue with Spains success,they'll go down as one of the greatest international teams.They've also been lucky but there's an element of luck in winning anything.
I think they'll need to change it up this year though,adding Koke to the mix would be a great start.Him and Costa/Negredo/Llorente could add a completely different attacking dimension to the team.The team might be a bit leggy if Xavi,Alonso and Iniesta start together,lots of years between them now.Implementing some of what's made Atletico so difficult to beat this year could go a long way,weirdly enough it doesn't look like Spain have the kind of players that can do that though,especially in midfield.

Austria! · 23-05-2014 3:43am

Warper wrote: »

Wtf?? Ya winning the last 3 major international tournaments is underperforming?? A lot of Spains victories were lucky?? They must be the luckiest team of all time as they managed to win the last 3 major tournaments in a row. Their demolition of Italy in the Euro 12 final was an absolute masterclass and must rank as one of the best ever displays by an international team in a major final. But ya they are lucky

Last 2. Which reinforces my point, because there was nothing lucky about Euro2008 which Del Bosque wasn't around for. Better football too.

Spain had an unbelievable squad. In Busquets Iniesta Xavi, probably the 3 best midfielders in the world, one of the best strikers in the world in Villa in 2010. Quality everywhere except maybe full back and up front depending on tournament. If they didn't win it would be underachieving, and Del Bosque came close twice. As it was they didn't win any match in 2010 by more than a goal. They won the semi of Euro2012 on penalties, don't get shocked when people say they had the luck. Italy had a man sent off in that masterclass final too. Italy already managed a 1-1 against Spain earlier on in the group stage.

bradlente · 23-05-2014 4:02am

Busquets didn't make his debut until after Euro 2008(amazingly has 60+ caps already),he's one of the few regular players Del Bosque gave a debut to.
Aragones created the blueprint of this great Spanish side,just looking at who Del Bosque has actually given debuts to in the team:

Bojan Krkić, Andoni Iraola, Fernando Llorente, Diego Capel, Sergio Busquets, Jesús Navas, Diego López, Gerard Piqué, Jordi Alba, Pedro, Pablo Hernández, Borja Valero, Bruno Soriano, Nacho Monreal, Víctor Valdés, Álvaro Negredo, Juan Mata, Javi Martínez, Thiago Alcântara, Manu del Moral, Aritz Aduriz, Adrián López, Juanfran Torres and Beñat Etxebarria while one uncapped player, Fernando Amorebieta, has been called up but failed to debut.

Edit-that list is slightly dated,even just looking at the squad for this tournament,Azpiliqueta,Koke and Costa have all got their starts from Del Bosque with maybe a few more.But they still have to prove themselves as first-teamers.

Del Bosque has only integrated 3 first team players since the post-Aragones era in 2008.Pedro and Mata deserve mention too but I don't think it's unfair to say that judging from that list,on what was already there a golden generation fell on Del Bosques lap.

DB74 · 23-05-2014 11:20am

What country hasn't won a major tournament without big players falling in the manager's lap. Plenty of teams have underperformed at big tournaments with big names at their disposal.

Del Bosque was instrumental in creating harmony in the Spanish camp for the 2012 EUROs following a season of especially bitter rivalry between Real & Barca, mainly thanks to Mourinho's poisoning influence of the Real players during the year.

What do you want Del Bosque's teams to do, go out and hammer everyone 4-0 or 5-0? That's not what Spain has been about the last few years. Their thinking is why score 2 goals when 1 will do, their method is score first and defend, but defend through possession football, not the traditional Chelsea of defending a lead. They have yet to concede a goal in the knockout stages of the last 3 tournaments, that's 10 matches without conceding.

Every great manager has been lucky at some stage or other with the players they have (look at Alex Ferguson for example) but to say that Del Bosque has underperformed is very unfair on the man.

Warper · 23-05-2014 1:46pm

Austria! wrote: »

Last 2. Which reinforces my point, because there was nothing lucky about Euro2008 which Del Bosque wasn't around for. Better football too.

Spain had an unbelievable squad. In Busquets Iniesta Xavi, probably the 3 best midfielders in the world, one of the best strikers in the world in Villa in 2010. Quality everywhere except maybe full back and up front depending on tournament. If they didn't win it would be underachieving, and Del Bosque came close twice. As it was they didn't win any match in 2010 by more than a goal. They won the semi of Euro2012 on penalties, don't get shocked when people say they had the luck. Italy had a man sent off in that masterclass final too. Italy already managed a 1-1 against Spain earlier on in the group stage.

Major tournaments do no really start until the KO round so that 1-1 draw with Italy in the Group stages is incomparable to the hammering they took in the final. Btw Italy never had a man sent off in the final so you are obv talking rubbish. 4-0 is the highest margin of victory ever in a Euros final as well btw. When it really mattered this Spain side has come good and Del Bosque must take great credit for this. It always happens when a team proves itself to be the best, they take a lot of slack primarily down to jealously.

DB74 · 23-05-2014 1:52pm

Warper wrote: »

Btw Italy never had a man sent off in the final so you are obv talking rubbish.

Bit harsh there. True they never had a man sent off in the final but they did have to play the last 30 mins with 10 men due to an injury to Thiago Motto, who had to come off the field after all Italy's subs had been used.

Austria! · 23-05-2014 2:06pm

Warper wrote: »

Major tournaments do no really start until the KO round so that 1-1 draw with Italy in the Group stages is incomparable to the hammering they took in the final. Btw Italy never had a man sent off in the final so you are obv talking rubbish. 4-0 is the highest margin of victory ever in a Euros final as well btw. When it really mattered this Spain side has come good and Del Bosque must take great credit for this. It always happens when a team proves itself to be the best, they take a lot of slack primarily down to jealously.

You're right. They had to play with 10 because of injury, not a red card. My mistake.

Major tournaments don't start until the KO stage? Absolute nonsense. The group match in 2012 between Croatia and Spain was effectively KO, because whoever lost would get knocked out. And it took Spain 88 minutes to score in that one, and if this header had gone in http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXybd-plfqU&t=2m22s
then they could easily have lost.

Fine margins between success and failure. Just because a team wins the world cup doesn't mean they did well, and just because a team loses doesn't mean they did poorly.
It's like gambling. I make some poor bets that win me money, I make plenty of great bets that lose me money. If you want to look at a few isolated results and judge then you're going to get misled.

And I didn't say Spain were not the best, I said Del Bosque did not do a great job. That's not incompatible with Spain being the best team in a competition. And jealousy doesn't apply to me. I have backed Spain in 2010 and 2012 and they won me money. Barcelona of 09-11 was the greatest football I've ever seen in my life. I want Spain to play even better, like I know they can.

Edit. And I've 4 figures on them for this world cup too.

WC 2014 Brasil; Starts June 12th 2014

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