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Shale Gas - Mod note post#117
Comments
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One thing I have learnt about the "anti" groups is that they dont read details. They read headlines and look for names like Cornell that hopefully will further their argument.
I have spoken with alot of protestors regarding Fraking and Gasland is always mentioned and even defended.
Its the equivelent of someone who hates sharks qouting from JAWS.
For the anti argument to ever move forward, they must park Gasland and any reference to Gasland and start working with the facts. And there are plently of facts that support their case, but Rolling Stone mag. isnt a respected source. You only need to flick through the pages of Rolling Stone to get a feel for their agenda.
Fracking may well be a distaster for the world, but stop the silliness and start to support the argument properly and people may listen. Remember nobody is at the moment as Fracking is happening all over America, not in Europe, but in Europe they have Neuclear and Coal, go figure.
Attached is a rebutted link to the Rolling Stone Article.
http://www.chk.com/News/Articles/Pages/release_20120302.aspx
Are you seriously linking a rebuttal by Chesapeake gas company itself!!
Good journalism is about looking at all the facts
Local journalism
http://www.sligotoday.ie/details.php?id=18991
An international from yesterday
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/03/201234193114340562.html0 -
Thats how a rebuttal works.
Regarding journalism - are you really suggesting that the Sligo Champion research stories. They "copy paste" like a student doing a school project.0 -
I read the Champion report - Is the journalism? Does it sound like it was written by somebody who knows what they are talking about or someone who will rehash whatever populist idea will gain support.
"SligoToday.ie understands that Tamboran will therefore be unable to stand by their publicly declared promise not to use chemicals in the process here. Once they carry out the exploration phase, their involvement will cease and the new drilling company will proceed 'as normal' and free to use over 500 varied chemicals to extract the gas. They may even use the new 'Super Fracking' process - See SligoToday.ie 23/1/12"
What a joke of a statement - they will need planning permissions, EIS etc etc etc. You cant just change the process half way through.
The question is not whether we are against "fracking", it is whether we trust our government agencies to uphold the law.
"The process known as 'fracking' involves forcing up to 10 million gallons of fluid as far as 1,000 metres below the surface to crack open rock formations" - Generallly more than 1000m, usually 4000m in the US, albeit not in Ireland.
"However, pollution can occur if seals break in the vertical pipeline underground, which runs through aquifers and other water supplies." As with any drilling method.
"Last May, France became the first country to ban 'fracking', while a moratorium has been placed on the method in New York state." - From the country who run from Nuclear energy.
They need investment and PR - is the unusual?
Cutting Edge journalism.0 -
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I read the Champion report - Is the journalism? Does it sound like it was written by somebody who knows what they are talking about or someone who will rehash whatever populist idea will gain support.
"SligoToday.ie understands that Tamboran will therefore be unable to stand by their publicly declared promise not to use chemicals in the process here. Once they carry out the exploration phase, their involvement will cease and the new drilling company will proceed 'as normal' and free to use over 500 varied chemicals to extract the gas. They may even use the new 'Super Fracking' process - See SligoToday.ie 23/1/12"
What a joke of a statement - they will need planning permissions, EIS etc etc etc. You cant just change the process half way through.
The question is not whether we are against "fracking", it is whether we trust our government agencies to uphold the law.
"The process known as 'fracking' involves forcing up to 10 million gallons of fluid as far as 1,000 metres below the surface to crack open rock formations" - Generallly more than 1000m, usually 4000m in the US, albeit not in Ireland.
"However, pollution can occur if seals break in the vertical pipeline underground, which runs through aquifers and other water supplies." As with any drilling method.
"Last May, France became the first country to ban 'fracking', while a moratorium has been placed on the method in New York state." - From the country who run from Nuclear energy.
They need investment and PR - is the unusual?
Cutting Edge journalism.
I'd have to say that your posts here have the feel of someone who is against the practice of fracking, and who wants to welcome any evidence against it, and shun any evidence in its favour. Thats the overwhelming impression I get from your posts, and wonder do you think thats fair or unfair?
Many years agao i was introduced to a concept which Edward De Bono calls the "intelligence trap", and would advise anyone to google it and read it, as up to that point I fell hook, line and sinker into it, but after reading it and taking the advice, I am now able to no longer fall into it as often as I otherwise might.0 -
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FYI
Lecture tomorrow by visiting German expert on fracking.
How Public opinion and the media have turned against FRACKING in Germany’
Helmut Fehr, Geoscientist and German Green Party councillor will give a presentation in the Rainbow Ballroom Glenfarne on the topic of ‘How Public opinion and the media have turned against FRACKING in Germany’. Last August Helmut spoke to a crowded house in Drumshanbo, about his experiences in Westphalia where the community learnt gradually how to interpret the language of the companies to be able to gain a full picture of the process. In his last seminar helmut gave further stark warnings that are relevant to Ireland. He spoke of how the companies engage the politicians with promises of tax revenues and jobs, promises he expressed were empty as it meant displacing other jobs.
Helmut Fehr is an ambassador of a model to ensure that there is proper public particpation in decesion making concerning this technique. There is currently a moratorium in place in Westphalia.
Get an opportunity to hear his first hand experience and make your own mind up.
Lecture will be followed by a questions and answer session.
In Ballroom of Romance, Glenfarne, Co. Leitrim on Mon Apr 2nd at 7.30pm.
Entry Free.
For further information please contact: 086 08700900 -
Yesterday and today there are feature artciles in the FT on shale gas.
TODAY, Tuesday:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a5053c50-8d2b-11e1-9798-00144feab49a.html#axzz1sx41cWWc0 -
The boom in natural gas in the USA has driven prices down, some would say too low.
As there isn't a fully developed world market in gas yet, prices are way higher in other places.
[IMG]http://im.media.ft.com/content/images/794c079c-8d6c-11e1-9798-00144feab49a.img?width=213&height=300&title=&desc=Burning difference natural gas prices btu[/IMG]0 -
Sustainable communities verus nurturing community division.
http://www.sligotoday.ie/details.php?id=19901&fb_source=message0 -
Just want to alert you to this which may be of interest to some people here.
Your Future is in your hands: Don’t let it get Fracked!
The people of the North West are invited to a public awareness meeting about the future of gas mining in their area, where they will be reminded they have the power to stop it.
Your Future is in Your hands-Don’t let Leitrim get Fracked is been hosted by the Love Leitrim Group in the Bee Park Centre, Manorhamilton, Leitrim, on Tuesday 12th June 8.30pm.
It is organised to respond to the recently published Environmental Protection Agencies (EPA) desktop study from Aberdeen University. The report looked at aspects of the process of hydraulic fracturing using peer-reviewed data available.
The objectives of the night are to draw on that report and review the latest research at the meeting. The wider aspects not covered by the study of the procedure will also be investigated. These include health aspects, economic reverberations, the visual impact, as well as looking at the specific geology of the area proposed.
A panel of experts will be in attendance on the night, including local GP, Dr. Carroll O Dolan, Vet Rob Doyle, (MVB) and the Sligo based Hydro geologist David Galazzi. The Chair on the night will be Mary Daly.
Eddie Mitchell PRO Love Leitrim says
People should come along and engage with the information and help develop all of our knowledge about the proposed development. We are committed to a scientific and evidence based argument and making our decisions based on it. We will be presenting this information to the wider community so that they make their own minds up, or deepen their awareness of the issue.
The running theme of the night will be that people have the power to change the licence.
Eddie explains
The people of North West are the biggest stakeholders and have the most to lose in this issue. We need to stand together for the sake of our children’s future. We all have a role to play.
For more information on the event please contact proloveleitrim@hotmail.com
Or Love Leitrim on 085 10533190 -
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The need to debate what sustainable versus whats not.
This is a good start and rich piece of desk top research that shows the importance of the agricultural industry and the risk associated nationally if fracking were to be introduced.
http://shalegasresearchireland.wordp...-gas-question/0 -
It strikes me that the only reason why there is so much noise about so little...2 proposed hydrologically fracked test wells with no exotic injection mixes deployed ...is to land some people consultancy jobs for all sorts of studies that are of no use whatsoever.
After they drill the two wells the companies will probably go away somewhere they can deploy their capital more efficiently and where the consultancy buyoff stack is smaller.
So there is no need to worry about the test program, whatever about medium-large scale extraction which will never happen in Ireland.0 -
Initial area 3000 wells in 80,000 acres, but they are looking at up to 9000 wells in 280,000 acres. (according to Tamboran) This means vaste industralistation of what is now a rural eco tourism area.0
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The need to debate what sustainable versus whats not.
This is a good start and rich piece of desk top research that shows the importance of the agricultural industry and the risk associated nationally if fracking were to be introduced.
http://shalegasresearchireland.wordp...-gas-question/
FACT: The biggest risk to groundwater in Ireland is the Agri industry itself. Not the heavy chemical or the petroleum industry. They have a bad record of controlling chemical spill off. You can see any of the EPA reports to back this up
http://shalegasresearchireland.wordpress.com/2012/06/08/synopsis-of-agrifood-report/
As for this "Shale Gas Report Ireland". It's not a report at all. It's published by a blog and it is not reviewed by any peers. They don't even quote sources for god's sake. If I submitted that to my supervisor as a dissertation, I would have been laughed out of college.
It's anti frack opinion purporting itself as fact at the end of the day. Serves nothing more then to muddy the waters in this argument0 -
FACT: The biggest risk to groundwater in Ireland is the Agri industry itself. Not the heavy chemical or the petroleum industry. They have a bad record of controlling chemical spill off. You can see any of the EPA reports to back this up
http://shalegasresearchireland.wordpress.com/2012/06/08/synopsis-of-agrifood-report/
As for this "Shale Gas Report Ireland". It's not a report at all. It's published by a blog and it is not reviewed by any peers. They don't even quote sources for god's sake. If I submitted that to my supervisor as a dissertation, I would have been laughed out of college.
It's anti frack opinion purporting itself as fact at the end of the day. Serves nothing more then to muddy the waters in this argument
So you suggest the situation is compounded by bringing in what is a observed as a dirty industry that is so new theres no skill level here, or staffing to regulate it? (the EPA themselves would admit that).
The report is an attempt in widening the framework of the argument beyond what as become pigeon holed arguments of chemicals/no chemicals and the like. Its got limitations for sure and I would have also liked it to be tighter and fed that back. There also an arguement to suggest that theres a certain elitism going on in this whole debate, where the public and certainly the people living in the area are'nt recognised properly as stakeholders, and that needs to be addressed.
And as you are concerned about best practice in research perhaps you should address the desk top research commisioned by the EPA which had 7 peer reviewed studies it cites from, along with newspaper articles (!) hardly comprehensive either. It also rounds up conclusions at odds with its main text. And trys to compare geology of America with the part of Ireland that isnt comparing like with like, especially when the drilling will be shallower here and closer to the aquifers and thereby a riskier situation. But then if you pay 6000 euro....And the university was the only institution that tendered for that piece of work, but of course thats another story. :pac:0 -
So you suggest the situation is compounded by bringing in what is a observed as a dirty industry that is so new theres no skill level here, or staffing to regulate it? (the EPA themselves would admit that).
Firstly it's not new in any way at all. It's around since the 40's no matter what leitrim against fracking say.
Secondly there are plenty of qualified Geologists, Engineers and Hydrologists in Ireland. I'm qualified not too long myself, but there is a strong base of the above that are highly qualified and are highly experienced here.The report is an attempt in widening the framework of the argument beyond what as become pigeon holed arguments of chemicals/no chemicals and the like. Its got limitations for sure and I would have also liked it to be tighter and fed that back. There also an arguement to suggest that theres a certain elitism going on in this whole debate, where the public and certainly the people living in the area are'nt recognised properly as stakeholders, and that needs to be addressed.
Its not a report in the traditional sense. Its a loosely conglomerated group of opinions. Until it's published in a peer reviewed setting, its nothing more then opinion. Elitist? I'd like a clear factual overview of the matter and calling themselves "Shale Gas Report Ireland" when it's just unjustified opinion is nothing more then muddying the waters. It's not helping the matter at all. I don't even know if they have an ulterior agenda here.
Asking for the facts is not elitist, it's just common sense.And as you are concerned about best practice in research perhaps you should address the desk top research commisioned by the EPA which had 7 peer reviewed studies it cites from, along with newspaper articles (!) hardly comprehensive either. It also rounds up conclusions at odds with its main text. And trys to compare geology of America with the part of Ireland that isnt comparing like with like, especially when the drilling will be shallower here and closer to the aquifers and thereby a riskier situation. But then if you pay 6000 euro....And the university was the only institution that tendered for that piece of work, but of course thats another story. :pac:
They said it themselves, it was a preliminary report. They are still conducting studies into it.
The US and Ireland while many thousands of miles apart today can and do have similarities geology wise, they were once quite close geographically. There are differences though - fractures and faulting, which play a large part of our shale fields.
Where are you getting the figures of the depths of the Shannon basin aquifer? And the depth of the Shale?0 -
Firstly it's not new in any way at all. It's around since the 40's no matter what leitrim against fracking say.
Secondly there are plenty of qualified Geologists, Engineers and Hydrologists in Ireland. I'm qualified not too long myself, but there is a strong base of the above that are highly qualified and are highly experienced here.
Its not a report in the traditional sense. Its a loosely conglomerated group of opinions. Until it's published in a peer reviewed setting, its nothing more then opinion. Elitist? I'd like a clear factual overview of the matter and calling themselves "Shale Gas Report Ireland" when it's just unjustified opinion is nothing more then muddying the waters. It's not helping the matter at all. I don't even know if they have an ulterior agenda here.
Asking for the facts is not elitist, it's just common sense.
They said it themselves, it was a preliminary report. They are still conducting studies into it.
The US and Ireland while many thousands of miles apart today can and do have similarities geology wise, they were once quite close geographically. There are differences though - fractures and faulting, which play a large part of our shale fields.
Where are you getting the figures of the depths of the Shannon basin aquifer? And the depth of the Shale?
One curious feature of Irish society is that there has always been a strong element of anti intellectualism in it, and a suspicion and distrust of higher education.
Consequently, many of the sorts of people who join such protest groups don't join because they want to find out more before making up their minds, but make up their minds before finding out the facts (these days often on the basis of a youtube video or similar) and no matter what evidence is forthcoming afterwards they will not budge.
It's known as "invincible ignorance" and is summed up very well by Dr Edward de Bono in his writings about the intelligence trap. What he points out is that the intelligence trap is something intelligent people also fall into, and is not just the preserve of the unintelligent.
To try to hold a logical argument with such people is pointless, as they are not open to learning or to changing their minds, and even if you could "prove" the issue either way, they are still neither able or willing to learn. You can see that right across boards in many serious threads, where some hunker down and ignore any evidence which might question cherished beliefs.0 -
People in Ireland have learned to trust what they can validate. The problem with education or lack of understanding is that many people that feel educated don't bother to analyse or research. There is an expectation on their part that because information comes from a trusted source that they have a natural disposition towards, it must be acceptable. Get real Betty and conduct your own research. Look for data not just opinions. Listen to everybody before you form a opinion. Don't just assume people who don't agree with you are thick or somewhat unfortunate intellectually. Always be open to change your mind.0
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Firstly it's not new in any way at all. It's around since the 40's no matter what leitrim against fracking say.
Secondly there are plenty of qualified Geologists, Engineers and Hydrologists in Ireland. I'm qualified not too long myself, but there is a strong base of the above that are highly qualified and are highly experienced here.
Its not a report in the traditional sense. Its a loosely conglomerated group of opinions. Until it's published in a peer reviewed setting, its nothing more then opinion. Elitist? I'd like a clear factual overview of the matter and calling themselves "Shale Gas Report Ireland" when it's just unjustified opinion is nothing more then muddying the waters. It's not helping the matter at all. I don't even know if they have an ulterior agenda here.
Asking for the facts is not elitist, it's just common sense.
They said it themselves, it was a preliminary report. They are still conducting studies into it.
The US and Ireland while many thousands of miles apart today can and do have similarities geology wise, they were once quite close geographically. There are differences though - fractures and faulting, which play a large part of our shale fields.
Where are you getting the figures of the depths of the Shannon basin aquifer? And the depth of the Shale?
Pls excuse am unable to get back to the boards as much as would like.
Any detail and graphs sourced is I believe from tamboran own data and/or British geological society sources afaik but will get back to you if I find out any different. Its the horizontal drilling aspect to this fracking that is new.
Re the piece. Recognise the importance of peer review. Above was secondary analysis not primary research and mentioned already draw backs. I am well aware that there is many professionals and am proud to say we have many within our masses as I am too.
We all know the usefulness of peer reviewed sources for validity. But if anyone was following this you would realise that there is a delay in a huge amt of data coming through because it hadnt been monitored properly, and because the companies have not historically needed to be transperent etc. A great deal of research however that has been coming through in the many aspects of hydrualic fracturing is worrisome. I have referred on countless occassions to this type of data and shant again here. To take things in isolation and pigeon hole each aspect without looking at how each aspect effects each other has been a huge flaw in the debate. This isnt about the just fracking, its about the land mass coverage and area industrialsation that follows it, its not just about earthquakes and the relative size of them its also about the potential of these to cause damage in the caseing lining. Its about an industry with huge lobbying power, its about projections and investors too.
There has been an important place for good investigative work like the New York Times pieces that highlight the industry and get people thinking about the wider aspects of this. Heres a documentary piece that provides food for thought imo which is always useful.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPIEzSwPwT0&feature=player_embedded0 -
One curious feature of Irish society is that there has always been a strong element of anti intellectualism in it, and a suspicion and distrust of higher education.
Consequently, many of the sorts of people who join such protest groups don't join because they want to find out more before making up their minds, but make up their minds before finding out the facts (these days often on the basis of a youtube video or similar) and no matter what evidence is forthcoming afterwards they will not budge.
It's known as "invincible ignorance" and is summed up very well by Dr Edward de Bono in his writings about the intelligence trap. What he points out is that the intelligence trap is something intelligent people also fall into, and is not just the preserve of the unintelligent.
To try to hold a logical argument with such people is pointless, as they are not open to learning or to changing their minds, and even if you could "prove" the issue either way, they are still neither able or willing to learn. You can see that right across boards in many serious threads, where some hunker down and ignore any evidence which might question cherished beliefs.
You need to relax a bit more and I have just the thing for you. Call it field research down with 'those sorts' of people that may be effected by this firstly, but then this is a national issue that will effect the exchequer if it were to go through, our reputation with external markets, let alone how we view ourselves. So come along you may be pleasantly surprised at how well the natives can engage and its always good for everyone to open their horizons.
http://www.mylocalnews.ie/articles/529/13/love-leitrim-260567/10-km-event-to-celebrate-landscape-of-leitrim-39151/0 -
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It seems that the NIMBY phenomenon is forever going to be a thorn in the side of electricity generation in Ireland. Since the 70's it has been 'NO' to nuclear, yet we have no problem receiving nuclear generated power from Britain through the inter connector.
RTE news report yesterday evening focused on the nuisance of living adjacent to wind turbines (how many objections to wind farm planning will that generate)
The government policy of constructing medium sized CCGT is now under threat due to the crazy price of gas on the world market. We have our own gas at our finger tips ready to be grasped but people dont want exploration companies coming in as a result of protester scaremongering. The shale gas in Leitrim could be a major asset not just on a national scale, but would also provide a welcome boost to a local economy in need of investment.
Two things need to happen going forward.
An INDEPENDENT review on the safety of fracking carried out by professional EXPERTS needs to be circulated to ascertain the facts of the process.
A government review on state ownership of national resources need to be carried to ensure that we not only get a fair slice of the profits, but also assurances that a set portion of resources stay within the country for our own use.
It about time that we realised that we dont have the luxury of refusing investment in our country because of narrow minded ideals.0 -
It seems that the NIMBY phenomenon is forever going to be a thorn in the side of electricity generation in Ireland. Since the 70's it has been 'NO' to nuclear, yet we have no problem receiving nuclear generated power from Britain through the inter connector.
RTE news report yesterday evening focused on the nuisance of living adjacent to wind turbines (how many objections to wind farm planning will that generate)
The government policy of constructing medium sized CCGT is now under threat due to the crazy price of gas on the world market. We have our own gas at our finger tips ready to be grasped but people dont want exploration companies coming in as a result of protester scaremongering. The shale gas in Leitrim could be a major asset not just on a national scale, but would also provide a welcome boost to a local economy in need of investment.
Two things need to happen going forward.
An INDEPENDENT review on the safety of fracking carried out by professional EXPERTS needs to be circulated to ascertain the facts of the process.
A government review on state ownership of national resources need to be carried to ensure that we not only get a fair slice of the profits, but also assurances that a set portion of resources stay within the country for our own use.
It about time that we realised that we dont have the luxury of refusing investment in our country because of narrow minded ideals.
This isnt a simple issue and cant be treated as such. As seen above its multifaceted. Yes to information but some of the long term data on public health will be a few years down the line. In that case the precautionery principle needs to come to play. Evidence that has begun to come through isnt good about this industry. Pls see this peer reviewed study about animal and human health for example. http://www.psehealthyenergy.org/data/Bamberger_Oswald_NS22_in_press.pdf
Surely its about time we stopped jumping at the get rich fast option as that hasnt worked and we risk losing sustainable industry not to mention the health of our population. Even if one was looking at the crude economics its becoming clearer in more examples that the industry is not a transperent honest one, with projections of potential reserves overinflated. The fact that Exxonmobil pulled out of Poland which has been seen as flagship of Europe (even when Bulgaria and France has banned it) illustrates this, the real figures were one tenth of what the companies forecast. These types of inflated projections have been seen time and again and respected commentators exposing whats appearing now as a boom/bust industry. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/brendan-demelle/shale-gas-bubble-insiders_b_1199138.html
So far from people being idealistic maybe we need to wise up to the tricks of the industry as it "talks itself up" to get investors.
Its a national issue about looking at our ideals, and its no harm for us to question more.
The licences that have been granted in this country means that if it gets a foothold its potentially be moving to a place near many people anyway. http://www.indymedia.ie/article/1019950 -
For those of you in Dublin, Fermanagh, and leitrim you might be interested in attending this American author over here speaking on the wider industry.
Doggedly independent, undaunted by power. Palast's stories bite, they're so relevant they threaten to alter history"
-Chicago Tribune
ENNISKILLEN
No.6 Cafe Merlot, Monday 2nd July, 1pm - Talk and Book Signing
CARRICK-on-SHANNON
Bush Hotel, Monday 2nd July, 8pm - Talk and Book Signing.
DUBLIN
Connolly Books, Temple Bar, Tuesday 3rd July, 1pm - Talk and Book Signing.
DUBLIN
The Ireland Institute, 27 Pearse St. D2, Tuesday 3rd July, 7.30pm - Talk and Book Signing.
*All Events Admission Free
With his most recent publication Vulture's Picnic - the New York Times bestselling author of Armed Madhouse offers a globetrotting, Sam Spade-style investigation that blows the lid off the oil industry, the banking industry, and the governmental agencies that aren't regulating either.
This is the story of the corporate vultures that feed on the weak and ruin our planet in the process-a story that spans the globe and decades.
For Vultures' Picnic Palast built a team that reads like a casting call for a Hollywood thriller - a Swiss multilingual investigator, a punk journalist, and a gonzo cameraman-to reveal how environmental disasters like the Gulf oil spill, the Exxon Valdez, and lesser-known tragedies such as Tatitlek and Torrey Canyon are caused by corporate corruption, failed legislation, and, most interestingly, veiled connections between the financial industry and energy titans.
He is bringing his insights into the global hydrofracking rush to Ireland at the request of local anti-fracking campaigners. He, as a long term resident of New York, has had a front row seat in a conflict raging there between multinational oil and gas companies and a mass campaign who do not want the Marcellus Shale to be fracked.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/gregpalast0 -
Apparently, by all accounts Greg Palast Talk in Ireland Institute at 7.30 PM will be streamed (all going well) on http://www.ustream.tv/ch0
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Update on the antifracking run
http://www.mylocalnews.ie/articles/529/13/love-leitrim-260567/love-leitrim-brave-run-for-antifracking-cause-39504/0 -
Sligo Rovers players Gavin Peers and Pascal Millien wearing "Love Football-Hate Fracking" t-shirts to help raise awareness about the dangers of Hydraulic Fracturing (Fracking).0
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Another good article by Sligo today, covering this issue in far more depth than many more others out there, who should be. Lets hope that this is rectified soon for all our sakes.
http://www.sligotoday.ie/details.php...e508115af5ac2b0 -
Sligo today article referred to above.
http://www.sligotoday.ie/details.php?id=21456&PHPSESSID=41c0e8effdb2530bb8e508115af5ac2b0 -
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International Chair of Friends Of the Earth coming to Ireland to share some harsh lessons from communities who have been resisting oil and gas industry in Nigeria. Speaking at three separate events. First one Manorhamilton,Leitrim on Friday 17th August to show solidarity with the community there who are in their own David and Golliath battle with the industry. Accompanied by Sr Majella Carmody.
http://www.activelink.ie/node/97860 -
Oscar winning singer/songwriter Glen Hansard shows his support for the anti-fracking cause with a "Farming not Fracking" t-shirt backstage before his gig at Electric Picnic. (Photo attached) Glen brought the t-shirt on stage and later held it up to the crowd, asked people to take photos and spread across the internet.
Sligo Comedian John Colleary (RTEs The Savage Eye) wore a Love Football-Hate Fracking t-shirt during his show to a packed audience in the Comedy tent and reminded people of the importance of the issue. (photo attached)
Christy Moore and Declan Sinnott also brought the t-shirt on stage to promote the cause and reaffirmed their committment to it.
Many thanks to them all for raising public awareness to this.0 -
garth-marenghi wrote: »Oscar winning singer/songwriter Glen Hansard shows his support for the anti-fracking cause with a "Farming not Fracking" t-shirt backstage before his gig at Electric Picnic. (Photo attached) Glen brought the t-shirt on stage and later held it up to the crowd, asked people to take photos and spread across the internet.
Sligo Comedian John Colleary (RTEs The Savage Eye) wore a Love Football-Hate Fracking t-shirt during his show to a packed audience in the Comedy tent and reminded people of the importance of the issue. (photo attached)
Christy Moore and Declan Sinnott also brought the t-shirt on stage to promote the cause and reaffirmed their committment to it.
Many thanks to them all for raising public awareness to this.
Great, with such expert geologists and engineers such as Hansard and Moore weighing in on the topic, we surely will have rational debate on the matter of fracking.
Lets frack, but lets do it safely, cleanly, and in the best way we can. Best practice. Musicians have nothing to offer to the debate other than their opinion. And you know what is said about opinions.0 -
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I don't think Hansard and Moore are claiming to be experts but are lending their celebrity status to increase media attention on the issue.Great, with such expert geologists and engineers such as Hansard and Moore weighing in on the topic, we surely will have rational debate on the matter of fracking.
Lets frack, but lets do it safely, cleanly, and in the best way we can. Best practice. Musicians have nothing to offer to the debate other than their opinion. And you know what is said about opinions.
The question remains whether it is possible to frack safely and cleanly. And whether we really need the additional reserves, given that the gas industry itself claims that gas is a transition fuel.0 -
Think that the Bord Gais price rise and subsequent feedback answers the question of whether we 'need' it or not.0
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Great, with such expert geologists and engineers such as Hansard and Moore weighing in on the topic, we surely will have rational debate on the matter of fracking.
Lets frack, but lets do it safely, cleanly, and in the best way we can. Best practice. Musicians have nothing to offer to the debate other than their opinion. And you know what is said about opinions.
Thank god for the likes of Glen Hansard and Christy Moore lending their suppport to campaigns like this because when it comes to PR and publicity it is not a level playing field. The gas/oil companies have vast wealth to spend on PR and advisors to push their agenda and financial interests while those opposed to fracking have to depend on local people to donate their valuable energy and time and are motivated not by money but the desire to protect their communities. The gestures of people like Christy Moore, Glen Hansard and John Colleary (the savage eye) are hugely important and bring the issue to people who may not have heard about it.
Nobody is claiming they are experts but they have looked at the evidence and decided where they stand. Its up to everyone else to do the same.
With regards to fracking safely here are links to just a few reports from different institutions/individuals which question whether that is possible.
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/05/02/1100682108.full.pdf (Duke University on contamination of water)
http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/March12/FrackingAnimals.html (Cornell University on animal health risks)
http://frackingfreeireland.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Human_health_risk_assessment_of_air_emissions1.pdf (Colorado School of Public Health)
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0807/1224321631679.html ( the environmental pillar of social partnership that consists of An Taisce, Birdwatch Ireland, and the Irish Doctors Environmental Association to name but a few)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahVkrM1a25k&feature=plcp (Dr Carroll O Dolan on the public health implications of fracking)0 -
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Any proper energy policy will address the three questions of energy security, sustainability and affordability. Shale gas fails on two of those. It is not sustainable, nor would it contribute to lower prices. The costs of shale gas extraction would be considerably higher in the EU than in the US, where the industry has been allowed to avoid much environmental regulation. Much also depends on details such as the actual depth of the reserves. The Marcellus Shale seems to be averaging around 2,000m but Exxon Mobil pulled out of Polish shale projects after finding the gas there was closer to 4,000m.nedzer2011 wrote: »Think that the Bord Gais price rise and subsequent feedback answers the question of whether we 'need' it or not.
As for energy security, I try not to take a gas company's declaration of potential reserves at face value.0 -
Great, with such expert geologists and engineers such as Hansard and Moore weighing in on the topic, we surely will have rational debate on the matter of fracking.
Lets frack, but lets do it safely, cleanly, and in the best way we can. Best practice. Musicians have nothing to offer to the debate other than their opinion. And you know what is said about opinions.
This post is long, but bottom line, Shale Gas not the Nirvana.
Perhaps Art Berman may be quoted, along with Society of Petroleum Engineers and US Geological Survey
As you may be aware there's a lot of talk as to whether shale gas is as abundant as first thought. (USGS re-evaluation of the Marcellus shale reserves). There's also a major problem with Well recovery rates. Check out the USGS figures for EUR versus what the companies claim. The SPE also know there's a problem with the ARPs formula used by companies to claim that wells last for 30 years (Tamborans are 28 yrs) as the wells don't decline in this manner. The companies use a b factor greater than 1 (Tamboran =1.5) which SPE say gives false impressions.
USGS publications http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1118/OF12-1118.pdf page3.
August 2012, revised EURs for shale plays.
Arthur Berman - a summary here : http://aspousa.org/2009/08/lessons-from-the-barnett-shale-
suggest-caution-in-other-shale-plays/
Berman showed that the curve, and hence EUR was affected by using a B factor greater than 1,
and suggested from actual production rates reviewed that this was not correct.
Powers associates report on Fayetteville. http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/bill-
powers/2011/05/02/the-fayetteville-shale-peaks
An analysis of Fayetteville shale which is most analogous to Lough Allen Basin.
society of Petroleum Engineers report on validity of arps formula -Cheng,Lee,McVay.
http://www.spe.org/ejournals/jsp/journalapp.jsp?pageType=Preview&jid=EREE&mid=SPE-
108176-PA From the abstract “Our work indicates that, as observed in field data, transient effects and
coexistence of different flow regimes between layers lead to abnormal decline behavior (b > 1.0) in multilayer tight gas
wells, which leads to errors in production forecasts. Our new procedure provides a method to minimize these errors.”
http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2012/goldenrules/WEO2012
_GoldenRulesReport.pdf page 53..talking about higher capital and operational costs for shale gas in europe.
So essentially these wells are good for 5-15 years, if even that. As Berman points out below some more scrutiny of the costs needs to be done. Remember some of the costs are amortized over 28 years, if well life is shortened those costs go up (think lower mortgage payments over 30 years v 20 years). Secondly some of the costs are a function of costs/gas produced. If less gas produced, cost per unit of gas increases too.
"Your observations are correct. The main point is that shale gas empirically only works in marine oil source rocks. Has Tamboran done resource assessments to determine source type, richness and thermal maturity? Has the Bundoran Shale sourced any reservoirs in the basin? Are the samples based on vertical wells or outcrop?
The assumptions in the attached type curve appear optimistic as do the projected costs. What are land, overhead, lease operating and interest expenses? What are taxes and royalties? I would request a full-cost, discounted net present value analysis with all assumptions itemized. I am certain that payout is not in 22 months.
There is little precedent for 5% terminal decline rate except theoretical since no well drilled and completed with modern technology has yet reached full boundary-dominated flow to determine terminal decline. If you run a NPV10 analysis on their type curve using all of their assumptions about IP, price, decline rate, etc., I imagine that you will find that 70% of NPV occurs in the first 5 years, 85% in the first 10 years, and little NPV beyond 15 or 20 years. So, regardless of well life, decline rate, etc., if there is no NPV, there are no reserves in that range of the well's life.
Perhaps the most damning though are the insider emails
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/us/natural-gas-drilling-down-documents-4-intro.html0 -
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The European Commission has released three studies on shale gas today. One on the climate impacts, one on the other environmental impacts and one on the economics. You can see them here:
Climate impacts: http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/eccp/docs/120815_final_report_en.pdf
Environmental impacts: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/integration/energy/pdf/fracking%20study.pdf
Markets impacts: http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/jrc/downloads/jrc_report_2012_09_unconventional_gas.pdf
Up until now, the only significant study carried out by the Commission had been a legal assessment of the legislation covering shale gas activities in Europe. The findings of that report were that no more legislation is required on the exploration phase, but it was less confident to say the same on the exploitation phase.0 -
nedzer2011 wrote: »Think that the Bord Gais price rise and subsequent feedback answers the question of whether we 'need' it or not.
Tamboran's business model which is suspect (see above) relies on gas at 11 dollars / mcf. 1 mcf = approx 1MMBTU. 1MMBTU is currently trading @6.00 pounds on the NBP. 11 dollars is £6.90. Now I'm sure as we go into peak season that the price of gas will rise, but remember there's only so much the market will bear anyway. The average price has been @6.00 or under for this year on the NBP. There was a spike up to about 9GBP in Feb.0 -
I don't think Hansard and Moore are claiming to be experts but are lending their celebrity status to increase media attention on the issue.
The question remains whether it is possible to frack safely and cleanly. And whether we really need the additional reserves, given that the gas industry itself claims that gas is a transition fuel.
The other question is whether or not we want to be held to ransom by Russian oligarchs over the price of gas.
I think it is impossible to have a rational debate about fracking as many who argue against it do so more from an emotional standpoint and less from an evidence based one.
Here in the UK, a reshuffle in the government finally seems to indicate that our government will come to its senses about energy policy and realise that covering the counrtyside with windmills is not an energy policy in terms of reliability or cost, and anyone who is interested in reducing their gas bills ( which also means electricity bills) by 75% ( yes, 75%) should avoid the emotional anti frackers with their one sided arguments, and look at all the facts for themsleves0 -
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Wandsworth wrote: »The other question is whether or not we want to be held to ransom by Russian oligarchs over the price of gas.
I think it is impossible to have a rational debate about fracking as many who argue against it do so more from an emotional standpoint and less from an evidence based one.
Here in the UK, a reshuffle in the government finally seems to indicate that our government will come to its senses about energy policy and realise that covering the counrtyside with windmills is not an energy policy in terms of reliability or cost, and anyone who is interested in reducing their gas bills ( which also means electricity bills) by 75% ( yes, 75%) should avoid the emotional anti frackers with their one sided arguments, and look at all the facts for themsleves
Have to totally disagree about your emotional debate as opposed to evidence based one from the anti-fracking side. If you look at this page of the thread alone there are plenty of links to numerous evidence based studies from various individuals/academic institutions. An unfair/untrue point that you are making.0 -
Wandsworth wrote: »The other question is whether or not we want to be held to ransom by Russian oligarchs over the price of gas.
I think it is impossible to have a rational debate about fracking as many who argue against it do so more from an emotional standpoint and less from an evidence based one.
Here in the UK, a reshuffle in the government finally seems to indicate that our government will come to its senses about energy policy and realise that covering the counrtyside with windmills is not an energy policy in terms of reliability or cost, and anyone who is interested in reducing their gas bills ( which also means electricity bills) by 75% ( yes, 75%) should avoid the emotional anti frackers with their one sided arguments, and look at all the facts for themsleves
Did you read any of the referenced studies above just been published by the EU. Gas from Shale excluding any loan Interest or cleanup costs, will be best case 5-12 dollars/mcf to produce. That's the break even figure. Now for NPV10 cash flow analysis one will need the price ones sells at to be double that over the lifetime of a project to ensure viability.. (You aint gonna get investors putting money into a project via shares unless the return looks OK)
So price to market excluding some costs is 10 dollars to 24 dollars per mcf. Gas is trading today at 6.00 pounds (9.60 dollars) per MMBTU (which is equivalent to an mcf).
Again Please note the above doesn't include well capping and clean up costs.
The 5 dollars/mcf assumes large EUR wells and long well life, something which doesn't seem to be the case with Shale Wells.
So Gas isn't going to be any cheaper than today. So get real with the cheap gas idea. Just wishing it will be cheaper is your emotional response coming out. The only way Shale Gas can be viable in Europe is if the gas price increases.0 -
It’s true that gas prices in Europe are high, although costs in the USA are considerable lower thanks to fracking, according to an article in Forbes and another in The Economist.
While cost of the fuel source is important, other costs of producing energy have to be taken into consideration. Such costs as energy plant commissioning costs, operation and maintenance costs, and the costs of decommissioning energy plants have to be taken into consideration. Additionally, what is called “energy security” also has to be taken into account.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/24/actual-energy-costs-are-driving-us-towards-a-natural-gas-nation/
According to Forbes and The Economist, the cheapest form of energy taking all these issues into account is from gas, and in the USA fracking has contributed to lowering the price of gas available.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2012/05/americas-falling-carbon-dioxide-emissions
The price of whatever fuel is used to produce energy becomes less relevant when the fuel sources are restricted, cut off or made increasingly expensive, and it seems relevant to consider whether any country wants to be more dependent than is necessary on foreign sources of fuel.
No form of fuel is perfect, and all are expensive, (even the costs for Hydro are expensive), and it seems foolhardy to ignore the actual experience from abroad from a country which has considerab;y more experience than any other, and place all ones faith in one report which is produced by the EU, a body which is not known for its independence from political interference.
No one suggests any of this is easy, and none of us should pretend that many of those who are opposed to fracking will be opposed to any consideration of that process whatever the evidence shows.
I am open to fracking, and our views should be based not on anecdote, speculation or youtube videos, but on the best evidence produced, and common sense.0 -
ShanePouch wrote: »It’s true that gas prices in Europe are high, although costs in the USA are considerable lower thanks to fracking, according to an article in Forbes and another in The Economist.
Shale Gas only makes sense, if its abundant and easy to get out of the ground. The Gas In Place calculations on Shale gas have been revised this year - India down 90%, Poland down 85% and US Marcellus down 80%.
Similarly the amount of gas a well can produce has been downgraded by the USGS recently (bearing no relation to what the producers are saying). We have to be very careful to cost this correctly, otherwise what is the point ?
It would seem the glut in gas in the US was caused by drilling more wells, rather than finding an abundant supply source. As the wells deplete, and with focus on the next bubble in fracking for oil, gas supply will fall and gas prices are going to rise significantly in the US.
While cost of the fuel source is important, other costs of producing energy have to be taken into consideration. Such costs as energy plant commissioning costs, operation and maintenance costs, and the costs of decommissioning energy plants have to be taken into consideration.
Yes in some ways this argument is true. But if we're going towards a renewables future why put huge investment into gas powered stations with a lifetime of 25 years ? The EROI of Shale Gas is poor compared to PV and Wind.
Additionally, what is called “energy security” also has to be taken into account.
Energy security or Energy independence. Energy Security can be maintained by having commercial contracts in place. Energy Independence is not feasible for Ireland using shale gas - Even Tamboran admit that.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/24/actual-energy-costs-are-driving-us-towards-a-natural-gas-nation/
According to Forbes and The Economist, the cheapest form of energy taking all these issues into account is from gas, and in the USA fracking has contributed to lowering the price of gas available.
The collapse in the price of gas happens because of the difference in the gas market in the US and Europe. But beware, companies are in the process of taking huge impairment charges, and are facing investigations by the SEC. The banks are in for the kill, with Mergers and Assets... probably the biggest indicator for me of the bubble in Shale, is the sell off, or Joint Venturing of Barnett assets. This was supposed to be the economic powerhouse for next 20-30 years. Now you don't sell off an asset that's going to produce for 20-30 years??
Is this a gas industry, or is it a land grab ? Chesapeake makes more from flipping leases than from selling gas.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2012/05/americas-falling-carbon-dioxide-emissions
Yes and on the other side of the fence are
a) Americas increasing Methane Emissions which is a more potent GHG
b) Americas increasing air pollution in areas where drilling is taking place (eg Barnett Shale)
c) America has decided to allow fracking to go ahead in Iowa - the bread basket of the US and the world.
The price of whatever fuel is used to produce energy becomes less relevant when the fuel sources are restricted, cut off or made increasingly expensive, and it seems relevant to consider whether any country wants to be more dependent than is necessary on foreign sources of fuel.
Yes All food is going to go up in price and become more expensive. We cannot continue to burn fossil fuel because we will reach tipping point. Ironically Leitrim produces more energy than is consumed, while Fermanagh is also near balance with wind production. Take into account the Ballyshannon Hydro on the Erne and the region is self sufficient. Fossil Fuels have received bilions in subsidies throughout the years, and continue to do so (how much subvention on gas pipelines?). We have to look to be creative. The environmental and public health costs of fracking are too significant to ignore, along with the now accepted shortened well life.
No form of fuel is perfect, and all are expensive, (even the costs for Hydro are expensive), and it seems foolhardy to ignore the actual experience from abroad from a country which has considerab;y more experience than any other, and place all ones faith in one report which is produced by the EU, a body which is not known for its independence from political interference.
We have yet to see a full economic cycle or a full environmental cycle for shale gas and the more we see of it, the less the Shale Gas makes sense. I could re-phrase your question to say, who are you going to believe - the industry (who have consistently over stated their reserves , the employment the industry would give, and who changed regulation because of the damaging effects of the industry -(clean water/air act change in US), or the EU ) Finally just because something works in US, doesn't mean it will work in EU..perhaps the EU should be arbiter of that.
No one suggests any of this is easy, and none of us should pretend that many of those who are opposed to fracking will be opposed to any consideration of that process whatever the evidence shows.
Yes. I have watched the Gas companies come and go in the region. I thought initially great.. this might be the time the gas gets taken out. Then I read about fracking. Stand anywhere in the fracking zone and have 100 gas wells in one Km radius. That's a major public health issue. It hasn't been dealt with yet.
I am open to fracking, and our views should be based not on anecdote, speculation or youtube videos, but on the best evidence produced, and common sense.
I agree. Tamboran's well reports on the cores state that the Carbon Content is Marginal in NW Carboniferous basin. They wish to frack, (that's in their licence application for exploratory wells in Northern Ireland) and their basis is one slide, un referenced and un known source which claims that Carbon content in Old cores is generally lower due to deterioration of the cores. Their business model has suspect costs - particularly after reading the EU report on economics which suggests they should be far higher, while their process model - fracking without chemicals and water recycling is aspirational rather than proven. The licences which were issued aren't I believe legal - as due process wasn't followed - and expect to see more on that in the next while.
You say views shouldn't be based on speculation - but this is a speculative industry. Tamboran's business is speculation and onward flipping of the licence either through asset sell of or Joint Venture. They have even said so themselves.0 -
Perhaps when checking on Energy Indepence and Security of supply, then we should look to Bord Gais...
http://www.bordgais.ie/corporate/index.jsp?p=354&n=365
"Ireland’s imported natural gas supplies are sourced from the North Sea. The possibility of gas supplies to Ireland from these sources being restricted is very remote. "0 -
meenaghman wrote: »Perhaps when checking on Energy Indepence and Security of supply, then we should look to Bord Gais...
http://www.bordgais.ie/corporate/index.jsp?p=354&n=365
"Ireland’s imported natural gas supplies are sourced from the North Sea. The possibility of gas supplies to Ireland from these sources being restricted is very remote. "
I am sure we are all concerned that all Irish Gas is sourced from foreign countries which means Ireland is 100% dependent on sources beyond Irelands control for gas, in terms of both supply and price.
Shale gas is heralding a resurgence in American manufacturing as energy costs fall and companies can procure raw materials at a cheaper rate, according to Dow CEO Andrew Liveris.
In the Chemical industry, for example, Shale gas has greatly reduced the input costs in the USA which has led to increased productivity. BASF, the giant German chemical company competing with American giants is now at an 8 point profit disadvantage, because it is paying high prices for oil and gas compared to its American rivals.
This is happening now, and is not speculation or guesswork. Shale gas in the USA is responsible for lowering factory inputs to such a level that the effects on the USA's outputs are leading to a resurgence in manufacturing.
Since the introduction of shale gas, gas prices in the USA have halved. Forgetting the enormous benefits that has brought already to the USA's industry, imagine if your central heating bill this winter could be similarly halved!
China, Germany, France, Britain, Russia, South Africa and others all have immense reserves which promise to provide the world with cheap energy for centuries to come, and they are all going to exploit those reserves.
In Ireland, we will probably benefit anyhow because of the effect this seemingly abundant supply will have on world prices. I suspect even in Ireland will the energy policy of the country coupled with the economic situation lead to a decision to extract as much of this gas as possible.0 -
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The economics of a particular shale project depend greatly on the specifics. It is not possible to simply transfer the American experience over to Europe. Not only does Europe have a more dense population and stricter regulations, the geology of each formation can vary, which also has an impact on the economics of extraction.
The US shale industry has done a good job of promoting the idea that shale alone is the reason why gas prices have dropped. The reality is it's a mix of shale, demand reduction and renewables in the system.
Regardless, any decent cost-benefit analysis would not simply look at the impact on gas prices but the wider impacts. The economies of the parts of Ireland with shale gas potential rely heavily on agriculture and tourism. There are pros and cons that need to be considered, not just the average household's gas bill.0 -
The economics of a particular shale project depend greatly on the specifics. It is not possible to simply transfer the American experience over to Europe. Not only does Europe have a more dense population and stricter regulations, the geology of each formation can vary, which also has an impact on the economics of extraction.
The US shale industry has done a good job of promoting the idea that shale alone is the reason why gas prices have dropped. The reality is it's a mix of shale, demand reduction and renewables in the system.
Regardless, any decent cost-benefit analysis would not simply look at the impact on gas prices but the wider impacts. The economies of the parts of Ireland with shale gas potential rely heavily on agriculture and tourism. There are pros and cons that need to be considered, not just the average household's gas bill.
The problem is that all the while we are considering the pros and cons of the effects on agriculture and tourism, a decision is delayed.
The more time we take to weigh up the pros and cons (a process which often takes decades in Ireland and is often a euphemism for delaying a decision), the longer the time we all have to pay higher gas bills than necessary, higher electricity bills than necessary and the more Irish industry has to pay more for its inputs of energy, making it less competitive to those countries who have made a decision.
Ireland has all the time in the world to delay making a decision, and for every day it does so that’s costing every person in Ireland money in the form of higher than necessary energy bills.
We are experiencing a truly astonishing worldwide energy revolution, and while Ireland is in the depths of depression, with mass unemployment and poverty, to put off a decision which could help nearly everyone in the country with significantly lower energy bills, and offer more jobs as manufacturing and industry becomes more competitive, might seem to some, wicked.
Procrastination is not an energy policy.0 -
ShanePouch wrote: »The problem is that all the while we are considering the pros and cons of the effects on agriculture and tourism, a decision is delayed.
The more time we take to weigh up the pros and cons (a process which often takes decades in Ireland and is often a euphemism for delaying a decision), the longer the time we all have to pay higher gas bills than necessary, higher electricity bills than necessary and the more Irish industry has to pay more for its inputs of energy, making it less competitive to those countries who have made a decision.
Ireland has all the time in the world to delay making a decision, and for every day it does so that’s costing every person in Ireland money in the form of higher than necessary energy bills.
We are experiencing a truly astonishing worldwide energy revolution, and while Ireland is in the depths of depression, with mass unemployment and poverty, to put off a decision which could help nearly everyone in the country with significantly lower energy bills, and offer more jobs as manufacturing and industry becomes more competitive, might seem to some, wicked.
Procrastination is not an energy policy.
What do you mean? Drill first and then deal with the consequences?
A study of the European Parliament comes to the following conclusion:"Even an aggressive development of gas shales in Europe could only contribute to the European gas supplies at one-digit percentage share at best. It will not reverse the continuing trend of declining domestic production and rising import dependency. Its influence on the European greenhouse gas emissions will remain small if not negligible, or could even be negative if other more promising projects are skipped due to wrong incentives and signals."
So, fracking will have not really an impact on domestic gas prices. The reasons for that shale gas hype and the low gas prices in the US have other reasons.
=> Fracking - A Boom and Bust0 -
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