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Good economic news thread

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    #812
    FreudianSlippers
    Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Is this something to celebrate or be concerned about.
    Money being given away as opposed to being invested in more fruitful projects.
    Is this a vote of no confidence in the global economy?
    It's certainly far from a normal stable market
    I still believe that if we can get Greece under control this will go away and investment will start. It's not a great sign for the overall economy, but it won't last and we should be taking advantage of it while we can.


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    #813
    draiochtanois
    Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭draiochtanois


    This post has been deleted.


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    #814
    glacial_pace71
    Registered Users Posts: 301 ✭✭glacial_pace71


    Not sure if this is good news but NAMA is accelerating its wind-down mode. See Annual Report 2014 and associated press releases:
    https://www.nama.ie/fileadmin/user_upload/NAMAAnnualReportSummary_2014.pdf and https://www.nama.ie/fileadmin/user_upload/NAMAAnnualReport2014.pdf

    On the one hand I can understand that they're make like bandits and sell everything whilst assets are so overpriced and credit is so cheap. On the other hand they've offloaded billions of assets for fairly moderate prices relative to what the banks could've achieved had they been allowed hold onto them in some shape or form as part of the infamous guarantee. All those offloaded assets are seeing Canadian, Israeli and Russian pension funds or oligarchs receive a huge rental stream from Ireland. (I suppose we'll be a bit like Switzerland in reverse, with a massive export of commercial/residential rental income as an invisible export). On the other hand, had NAMA not stripped the banks there'd be all sorts of claims of sweetheart deals. (Then again, given that some developers could be shaken down for a few extra bob post-NAMA by their new debt holders shows that there was still too much forbearance in the deals).

    Similarly, their public 'yaay' re the loss of 126 staff is a bit suspect: many of those resignations take valuable market insight with them and no matter what sort of 'gardening leave' is put in place, there'll always be a suspicion that some of the exits were negotiated whilst still in office and with knowledge of certain asset classes etc.

    Overall though it's still good economic news.


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    #815
    FreudianSlippers
    Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    I sort of feel that once they're breaking even or making a profit (once not selling at a gross undervalue) then it's for the best. Many of these properties need development and it's not NAMA's job to do that.


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    #816
    Godge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0528/704380-retail-sales-cso/


    "Provisional figures from the Central Statistics Office show that the volume of retail sales rose by 0.5% in April on a monthly basis on the back of strong sales in department stores and in the food, beverages and tobacco sector"

    "The economist said that new cars sales are projected to break the 100,000 level this year for the first time since 2008, but the encouraging feature from these latest numbers is that personal spending in other areas is starting to pick up and is becoming more broad-based.

    "This can only be good news for retailers and employment prospects in the sector," he added."


    Now pause for a minute and consider. What if the water protestors had got their way and a general election had taken place last September and we had elected a Sinn Fein/AAA government? Would we be seeing this? Like F++k we would. Instead we would be in the basket case with Greece.


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    #817
    JustTheOne
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭JustTheOne


    Godge wrote: »
    http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0528/704380-retail-sales-cso/


    "Provisional figures from the Central Statistics Office show that the volume of retail sales rose by 0.5% in April on a monthly basis on the back of strong sales in department stores and in the food, beverages and tobacco sector"

    "The economist said that new cars sales are projected to break the 100,000 level this year for the first time since 2008, but the encouraging feature from these latest numbers is that personal spending in other areas is starting to pick up and is becoming more broad-based.

    "This can only be good news for retailers and employment prospects in the sector," he added."


    Now pause for a minute and consider. What if the water protestors had got their way and a general election had taken place last September and we had elected a Sinn Fein/AAA government? Would we be seeing this? Like F++k we would. Instead we would be in the basket case with Greece.

    Quite now, enda is the worst leader ever.sure it's all massaged with jobsbridge and emigration.

    The country is on its knees.


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    #818
    ezra_pound
    Registered Users Posts: 2,497 ✭✭✭ezra_pound


    JustTheOne wrote: »
    Quite now, enda is the worst leader ever.sure it's all massaged with jobsbridge and emigration.

    The country is on its knees.

    How does emigration and jobs bridge massage consumer spending figures?

    Enlighten meme, oh sage.


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    #819
    ardmacha
    Registered Users Posts: 7,476 ✭✭✭ardmacha


    ezra_pound wrote: »
    How does emigration and jobs bridge massage consumer spending figures?

    Enlighten meme, oh sage.

    When someone posts a sarcastic post they don't have to cover everything!


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    #820
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,080 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    ezra_pound wrote: »
    How does emigration and jobs bridge massage consumer spending figures?

    Enlighten meme, oh sage.

    They'll have to remove their tongue from their cheek first I would think!!!


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    #821
    Godge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    ardmacha wrote: »
    When someone posts a sarcastic post they don't have to cover everything!


    The problem is, if it was gladrags posting it, it might well have represented his true belief.


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    #822
    ezra_pound
    Registered Users Posts: 2,497 ✭✭✭ezra_pound


    Missed the sarcasm there!


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    #823
    Sheldons Brain
    Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭Sheldons Brain


    ezra_pound wrote: »
    Missed the sarcasm there!

    As Sheldon Cooper's Brain I have a similar problem.


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    #824
    glacial_pace71
    Registered Users Posts: 301 ✭✭glacial_pace71


    Purchasing managers' index shows further rise:

    http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0602/705259-manufacturing-pmi/

    Strength of sterling and dollar make for increasingly expensive raw material input costs (e.g. oil denominated in dollars), but these same currency movements also make for increased exports given that our goods/services are cheaper, notwithstanding currency hedging etc.


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    #825
    Greyian
    Registered Users Posts: 964 ✭✭✭Greyian


    Tax revenues are ahead of target and Unemployment is at a 6-year low


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    #826
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    The Irish Economy Thread seems to be much much quieter in recent months. Surely an indication that people are a) busier and have less time to post b) good news doesn't sell papers/bandwidth c) less people moaning about the guberment destroying the lives of the 'vulnerable'


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    #827
    Godge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0603/705638-exchequer-finance-may/

    "In the year to date the State has received more than €17.28bn in taxes and duties - €734m (4.4%) more than had been budgeted at the start of the year and almost €1.7bn (10.9%) more than received in the same five months of 2014."


    http://www.finance.gov.ie/sites/default/files/Exchequer%20Returns%20end%20May%202015%20information%20note.pdf


    "End-May 2015 saw the Exchequer record a surplus of €641 million compared to a deficit of €3,469 million in the same period last year."

    Wow. I know there were one-off items but more than €4 bn of a turnaround!

    The IMF deal which Ireland secured is also paying dividends.

    " Excluding the sinking fund contribution in 2014, this represents a year-on-year decrease of €111 million or 3.2%, largely reflecting the impact of early repayments to the IMF. Interest expenditure at end-May 2015, at €3,302 million was €213 million or 6.1% below profile; the reasons for this include lower than projected costs on this year’s bond issuance as well as the faster than profiled early repayment of the full portion of the IMF loan subject to the higher rate of charge."


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    #828
    Greyian
    Registered Users Posts: 964 ✭✭✭Greyian


    jank wrote: »
    The Irish Economy Thread seems to be much much quieter in recent months. Surely an indication that people are a) busier and have less time to post b) good news doesn't sell papers/bandwidth c) less people moaning about the guberment destroying the lives of the 'vulnerable'

    I'd say it's mostly 'C'. Previously, every piece of news would be jumped on by people proclaiming it to be massaging of figures ("it's all jobbridge"), whereas its blatantly obvious that people saying that now are off in fantasy land. That's not to say that things couldn't go bad again, but they're definitely improving currently.


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    #829
    Godge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    Greyian wrote: »
    I'd say it's mostly 'C'. Previously, every piece of news would be jumped on by people proclaiming it to be massaging of figures ("it's all jobbridge"), whereas its blatantly obvious that people saying that now are off in fantasy land. That's not to say that things couldn't go bad again, but they're definitely improving currently.

    We could use number of posts per day on the Irish Economy forum as a barometer for the health of the economy:D


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    #830
    Greyian
    Registered Users Posts: 964 ✭✭✭Greyian


    Godge wrote: »
    We could use number of posts per day on the Irish Economy forum as a barometer for the health of the economy:D

    We need to stop posting so!


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    #831
    frankbrett
    Registered Users Posts: 1,323 ✭✭✭frankbrett


    Greyian wrote: »
    I'd say it's mostly 'C'. Previously, every piece of news would be jumped on by people proclaiming it to be massaging of figures ("it's all jobbridge"), whereas its blatantly obvious that people saying that now are off in fantasy land. That's not to say that things couldn't go bad again, but they're definitely improving currently.

    The journal.ie commenters will be banging the jobbridge drum, even if we ever got back to full enployment


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    #832
    glacial_pace71
    Registered Users Posts: 301 ✭✭glacial_pace71


    frankbrett wrote: »
    The journal.ie commenters will be banging the jobbridge drum, even if we ever got back to full enployment

    There'll be posts about the tears shed over the poor jobbridge scheme administrators who've been thrown on the scrapheap by the dire circumstances of an economic upturn.


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    #833
    jank
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    Journal.ie comments section is Ireland's own Reddit, a collection complete cluster****s of repetitive entitled morons.


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    #834
    FreudianSlippers
    Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    jank wrote: »
    Journal.ie comments section is Ireland's own Reddit, a collection complete cluster****s of repetitive entitled morons.
    That's an unfair comparison for the comment section on Reddit tbh.


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    #835
    Godge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0605/706031-live-register-figures/


    "Numbers signing on the Live Register have now effectively fallen for about three years in a row. "

    Do you remember about three years ago the likes of Constantin Gurdgiev and other economists were telling us we were going to be bankrupt by the end of the week?

    "Today's Live Register figures from the CSO also show that the number of long term claimants fell by 11.7% or 21,486 to stand at 161,881 in May."

    "The CSO also noted that 53.2% of all claimants on the Live Register last month were short term claimants. This compared to 52.8% in May of last year."

    These two points are key.


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    #836
    Geniass
    Closed Accounts Posts: 643 ✭✭✭Geniass


    Godge wrote: »
    Do you remember about three years ago the likes of Constantin Gurdgiev

    Who? :)

    Ratings upgrade from S&P to A+ just one step down from AA. Not bad considering very few countries on AAA.

    Cheaper borrowing costs likely. http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0605/706181-irish-credit-rating/


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    #837
    Mongfinder General
    Registered Users Posts: 1,992 ✭✭✭Mongfinder General


    Geniass wrote: »
    Who? :)

    Ratings upgrade from S&P to A+ just one step down from AA. Not bad considering very few countries on AAA.

    Cheaper borrowing costs likely. http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0605/706181-irish-credit-rating/

    Borrowing costs have shot up in the last two days. Even German Bunds have taken a pounding. 10 Year Irish bonds were at 1.55% today. That's up from approx 1.2 on Wednesday. Latest inflation data may have impacted on the yields.

    We probably have tranches of debt at 4 and 5%. Our government should be borrowing at the current low rates in order to refinance this debt when it falls due. They could probably put borrowings out on deposit with some institutions overseas and get a better return than 1.55%.


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    #838
    Saipanne
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,882 ✭✭✭Saipanne


    Godge wrote: »
    http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0605/706031-live-register-figures/


    "Numbers signing on the Live Register have now effectively fallen for about three years in a row. "

    Do you remember about three years ago the likes of Constantin Gurdgiev and other economists were telling us we were going to be bankrupt by the end of the week?

    "Today's Live Register figures from the CSO also show that the number of long term claimants fell by 11.7% or 21,486 to stand at 161,881 in May."

    "The CSO also noted that 53.2% of all claimants on the Live Register last month were short term claimants. This compared to 52.8% in May of last year."

    These two points are key.

    Take that, Paul Murphy!


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    #839
    frankbrett
    Registered Users Posts: 1,323 ✭✭✭frankbrett


    Mongfinder General wrote: »
    Borrowing costs have shot up in the last two days. Even German Bunds have taken a pounding. 10 Year Irish bonds were at 1.55% today. That's up from approx 1.2 on Wednesday. Latest inflation data may have impacted on the yields.

    We probably have tranches of debt at 4 and 5%. Our government should be borrowing at the current low rates in order to refinance this debt when it falls due. They could probably put borrowings out on deposit with some institutions overseas and get a better return than 1.55%.

    No they could not get deposit rates any close to that with any reputable institutions. Even borrowing at current rates would generate negative cost of carry


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    #840
    Mongfinder General
    Registered Users Posts: 1,992 ✭✭✭Mongfinder General


    frankbrett wrote: »
    No they could not get deposit rates any close to that with any reputable institutions. Even borrowing at current rates would generate negative cost of carry

    Thank you Frank, I think you're wrong.

    http://australia.deposits.org/

    And before you say it, most of these banks will facilitate a euro account


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    #841
    frankbrett
    Registered Users Posts: 1,323 ✭✭✭frankbrett


    Mongfinder General wrote: »
    Thank you Frank, I think you're wrong.

    http://australia.deposits.org/

    And before you say it, most of these banks will facilitate a euro account

    Indeed you can get a Euro account in an AUD bank

    https://www.anz.com/resources/d/8/d8f1960046d35bcd99569dff59dc78ef/RateSheet-FCA220413.pdf?MOD=AJPERES

    0% interest. As you won't get the base currency rate as this is a function of the relative supply and demand/cost of funds of AUD, not EUR.

    Otherwise a massive arbitrage would be available to all Euro Sovereigns to borrow in Euroland and invest abroad at higher rates. EUR deposit rates are at basement level as institutions will lend to each other for close to zero to avoid being penalised for holding cash due to the ECB deposit rate being negative.


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