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Good economic news thread

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    #782
    draiochtanois
    Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭draiochtanois


    This post has been deleted.


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    #783
    Godge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    draiochtanois wrote: »
    This post has been deleted.

    That is not a problem because states don't die, and their debt doesn't die with them.

    People need to repay debt because they die and their debts die with them. States are different.


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    #784
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,526 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Godge wrote:
    That is not a problem because states don't die, and their debt doesn't die with them.


    Tell that to the Greeks


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    #785
    KingBrian2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,363 ✭✭✭KingBrian2


    The economy might be growing but Tax intake is below expectations, so the forecast is looking good only revenue brought on from that growth is extremely important for quality services and everything else.


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    #786
    Greyian
    Registered Users Posts: 974 ✭✭✭Greyian


    KingBrian2 wrote: »
    The economy might be growing but Tax intake is below expectations, so the forecast is looking good only revenue brought on from that growth is extremely important for quality services and everything else.

    According to the newest figures (the ones that came out today), tax receipts are ahead of forecast...


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    #787
    KingBrian2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,363 ✭✭✭KingBrian2


    Greyian wrote: »
    According to the newest figures (the ones that came out today), tax receipts are ahead of forecast...

    On the RTE news I saw it mentioned tax receipts below expectations, I could be wrong but I don't think so. Oh wait I believe it was the previous period.


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    #788
    Greyian
    Registered Users Posts: 974 ✭✭✭Greyian


    KingBrian2 wrote: »
    On the RTE news I saw it mentioned tax receipts below expectations, I could be wrong but I don't think so.

    For the month of April, they were 1.1% below forecast, but they're up by 4.2% against forecasts for the year-to-date.

    What does stand out is VAT receipts, which are about 1% below forecast, for the first 4 months of the year.

    Overall though, we're ~500 million ahead of forecast for the year


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    #789
    Godge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    Greyian wrote: »
    For the month of April, they were 1.1% below forecast, but they're up by 4.2% against forecasts for the year-to-date.

    What does stand out is VAT receipts, which are about 1% below forecast, for the first 4 months of the year.

    Overall though, we're ~500 million ahead of forecast for the year

    Two or three possible explanations:

    (1) Domestic economy not doing as well
    (2) People travelling abroad again on short breaks
    (3) People paying down debt including mortgage and other debt


    I would go with (3) but shinnernomics would go with (2) and justify taxing the "rich" and the pessimists would go with (1).


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    #790
    Greyian
    Registered Users Posts: 974 ✭✭✭Greyian


    Godge wrote: »
    Two or three possible explanations:

    (1) Domestic economy not doing as well
    (2) People travelling abroad again on short breaks
    (3) People paying down debt including mortgage and other debt


    I would go with (3) but shinnernomics would go with (2) and justify taxing the "rich" and the pessimists would go with (1).

    Also, I was just referring to VAT vs the forecasts.

    Year-on-year, the first four months of 2015 had VAT receipts at 10.3% above last year. If they're up 10.3% year-on-year, but down ~1.1% on forecast, that would suggest that the forecast was for 11.4% growth in VAT receipts.
    This means its entirely possible that the forecast for VAT receipts was simply too optimistic, because >10% growth is very strong.


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    #791
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,168 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Greyian wrote: »
    Also, I was just referring to VAT vs the forecasts.

    Year-on-year, the first four months of 2015 had VAT receipts at 10.3% above last year. If they're up 10.3% year-on-year, but down ~1.1% on forecast, that would suggest that the forecast was for 11.4% growth in VAT receipts.
    This means its entirely possible that the forecast for VAT receipts was simply too optimistic, because >10% growth is very strong.

    Vat receipts were down largely because April is the month when companies get their vat refunds , so the net impact was that VAT was slightly behind goal..

    Income tax and others were all up and ahead of goal..


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    #792
    KingBrian2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,363 ✭✭✭KingBrian2


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    Vat receipts were down largely because April is the month when companies get their vat refunds , so the net impact was that VAT was slightly behind goal..

    Income tax and others were all up and ahead of goal..

    Interested to see if the USC amounts are coming in as scheduled.


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    #793
    Sand
    Registered Users Posts: 12,524 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    Godge wrote: »
    That is not a problem because states don't die, and their debt doesn't die with them.

    People need to repay debt because they die and their debts die with them. States are different.

    People need to repay debt because they want to borrow more. Once you're dead, you don't care about borrowing more. Your debts are someone else's problem.

    States are different.


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    #794
    draiochtanois
    Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭draiochtanois


    This post has been deleted.


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    #795
    micosoft
    Registered Users Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭micosoft


    draiochtanois wrote: »
    This post has been deleted.

    What did you want? Instant arrival at low debt? A couple of years ago the naysayers were claiming the Irish state would collapse under the weight of debt. Now it's not being run down quickly enough!


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    #796
    Sand
    Registered Users Posts: 12,524 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    micosoft wrote: »
    What did you want? Instant arrival at low debt? A couple of years ago the naysayers were claiming the Irish state would collapse under the weight of debt. Now it's not being run down quickly enough!

    I think his point is that its not being run down. Debt is extremely cheap right now due to global economic conditions. That's great - but the US, Germany, China and so on will recover eventually. And then interest rates will go up because the ECB does not concern itself with Ireland's interests, and debt will not be cheap.

    The extremely cheap credit in the early 2000s - in response to the last great recession - was confused as being the new normal in Ireland, rather than a bizarre windfall due to global economic conditions. Whatever opportunity those years presented was entirely missed in the glow of self congratulation where the roosters convinced themselves and everyone else that the sun rose because they hollered. The extremely cheap credit being pumped into the global economy now...well, I cant tell the future but has the Irish government learnt *anything* about the dangers of easy credit or gormless self congratulation?


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    #797
    Tea drinker
    Registered Users Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭Tea drinker


    beeno67 wrote: »
    Still doesn't answer the question. How does going 18km out of the city encourage people to live close to the city. Surely logically it will make it easier for people to live up to 18km from the city centre.
    "Real" countries have rail links into their main airport hub.
    If they build the rail the property developers and county planners will have a sausage fest and hey presto higher densities will get built.
    Sand wrote: »
    I think his point is that its not being run down. Debt is extremely cheap right now due to global economic conditions. That's great - but the US, Germany, China and so on will recover eventually. And then interest rates will go up because the ECB does not concern itself with Ireland's interests, and debt will not be cheap.
    Hrd to know how long the rates will stay low, France has a lot of growth problems, most of EU is in doldrums. Greece would be over the edge if interest rates rise. OTOH a lot of industry is moving to China, Tech is moving to India, I know some companies in Ireland have to give a percentage of their work to India on all new projects, Indian managers are moving in poised to bring the work back to India.
    The tea leaves don't look good for IT in EU, not really bad, just not good long term.


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    #798
    Geniass
    Closed Accounts Posts: 643 ✭✭✭Geniass


    http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/promissory-note-profit-hidden-in-central-bank-footnote-1.2207945

    It looks like the costs are reducing further, on top of what we get from selling the banks.

    If we kill hobble the golden goose and get €19bn from Apple or something in that region it would be... nice.


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    #799
    micosoft
    Registered Users Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭micosoft


    Tea drinker wrote: »
    "Real" countries have rail links into their main airport hub.
    If they build the rail the property developers and county planners will have a sausage fest and hey presto higher densities will get built.
    So Berlin does not have a rail link to it's airport. Many US airports don't. UK is not every other country and is unique having a hyper capital surrounded by airports.
    Tea drinker wrote: »
    OTOH a lot of industry is moving to China, Tech is moving to India, I know some companies in Ireland have to give a percentage of their work to India on all new projects, Indian managers are moving in poised to bring the work back to India.
    The tea leaves don't look good for IT in EU, not really bad, just not good long term.
    This get's overstated. India is actually expensive to outsource to. Inshoring is the new buzz word. Along with Micro Manufacturing. Wait for 3D manufacturing and China might be the one in big trouble....


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    #800
    micosoft
    Registered Users Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭micosoft


    Had to post this!

    Ireland to become the Car Manufacturing centre of the world?? On a halting site! Kudos for the Picture of the horses...


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    #801
    FreudianSlippers
    Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    micosoft wrote: »
    So Berlin does not have a rail link to it's airport. Many US airports don't. UK is not every other country and is unique having a hyper capital surrounded by airports.
    It actually does, it isn't opening until Schönefeld closes, which can't happen until the perpetually delayed Willy Brandt Airport opens in 2016 (hopefully).

    The RE9 will go direct to Berlin Hauptbahnhof in a maximum 29 minutes.


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    #802
    Dave!
    Closed Accounts Posts: 27,857 ✭✭✭✭Dave!


    Unemployment rate falls below 10% for first time in seven years

    The unemployment rate fell to 9.9% by the end of March, according to the Central Statistics Office, putting it below 10% for the first time since 2008.

    There were 212,800 people unemployed by the end of the first quarter, according to the figures, down 45,300 on the same point of 2014.

    Employment numbers were up 41,300 year-on-year, meanwhile, with 1,929,500 people employed in the country by the end of March.

    According to the CSO there was a 3.6% increase in the number of people in full-time employment in the year to March, while part-time employment numbers fell 2.4%.

    :)


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    #803
    draiochtanois
    Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭draiochtanois


    This post has been deleted.


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    #804
    Outkast_IRE
    Registered Users Posts: 7,515 ✭✭✭Outkast_IRE


    It is certainly good news.

    From a personal perspective, i am currently finishing my final year of an engineering degree and everybody in the class who was looking for work has a job lined up, contracts signed etc. Its a small class, but a few years ago there was nothing going at all.


    I would say the figures are heavily padded by springboard and BTEA the last few years. I can say as a student that there are a good few BTEA people on courses at the moment, and alot of colleges have well over 100 springboard students on various courses.

    I have no problem with this however as long as they are on worthwhile courses. from what i can see the classes are generally alot of ex-construction and trades people who are upskilling, which is a good thing overall.


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    #805
    FreudianSlippers
    Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    Dave! wrote: »
    :)
    In before someone says it's all emigration!


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    #806
    Essien
    Registered Users Posts: 2,985 ✭✭✭Essien


    FreudianSlippers wrote: »
    In before someone says it's all emigration!

    But but but.....job bridge!!??


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    #807
    JustTheOne
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭JustTheOne


    Essien wrote: »
    But but but.....job bridge!!??

    Jobs bridge is included in unemployment rates.

    So it has nothing to do with the rise in employment.


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    #808
    Mongfinder General
    Registered Users Posts: 1,992 ✭✭✭Mongfinder General


    Barring a major shock, the unemployment figure will keep sliding. It will hit 6 % before grinding to a halt. Good luck shifting that 6%. Most of that figure is lifers


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    #809
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,168 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Mongfinder General wrote: »
    Barring a major shock, the unemployment figure will keep sliding. It will hit 6 % before grinding to a halt. Good luck shifting that 6%. Most of that figure is lifers

    Yep - Think the absolute lowest we got to was around 4% , not sure if we'll get that low again anytime soon.. something in the mid 5% range is probably a realistic target for "full employment"

    Single digits is great news though as is the shift from Part-time to full time employment. Indicates a strengthening economy as people get more hours etc..
    Employment rose by 41,300 in the year to March, an annual increase of 2.2 per cent. This represents an increase in full-time employment of 52,100 or 3.6 per cent and a decrease in part-time employment of 10,800 or 2.4 per cent.


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    #810
    glacial_pace71
    Registered Users Posts: 301 ✭✭glacial_pace71


    NTMA earns money on its lending:
    http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0521/702756-ntma-treasury-bills/

    Well, not quite, but you can see how a negative yield will be reported in the papers tomorrow.


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    #811
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,526 ✭✭✭Villa05


    glacial_pace71 wrote:
    NTMA earns money on its lending:


    Is this something to celebrate or be concerned about.
    Money being given away as opposed to being invested in more fruitful projects.
    Is this a vote of no confidence in the global economy?
    It's certainly far from a normal stable market


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