Fair play to Pearse Doherty

Frank Lee Midere · 15-04-2014 10:46pm

oscarBravo wrote: »

So someone with an engineering qualification is better qualified to understand economics than someone with an economics qualification because economics doesn't lend itself to scientific study?

OK then.

Yeah. Because economics is about as scientific as homeopathy which engineers can also comment on. Even if they don't have a qualification in homeopathy. My degree is physics and from such rare heights let me tell you economics is a non- science.

oscarBravo · 15-04-2014 10:47pm

tayto lover wrote: »

Look where the Banking experts got us.
How many accountants saw the crash coming?

You're right. I'm going to get my accounts done by my florist next year. After all, it's only logical to conclude that if not every expert in a field has been right all the time about everything, then every expert in that field is always wrong about everything.

Jesus, I really wish Irish schools would teach people the rudiments of formal logic.

Frank Lee Midere · 15-04-2014 10:47pm

But back to the ESRI. Highly credentialed economists.

David McWilliams has a go.

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2011/09/07/esri-has-been-getting-its-forecasts-wrong-for-years

tayto lover · 15-04-2014 10:48pm

oscarBravo wrote: »

You're right. I'm going to get my accounts done by my florist next year. After all, it's only logical to conclude that if not every expert in a field has been right all the time about everything, then every expert in that field is always wrong about everything.

Jesus, I really wish Irish schools would teach people the rudiments of formal logic.

You're never too late to learn :pac:

Banjo String · 15-04-2014 10:48pm

oscarBravo wrote: »

So someone with an engineering qualification is better qualified to understand economics than someone with an economics qualification because economics doesn't lend itself to scientific study?

OK then.

Just for clarity.

Are you of the opinion that Michael Noonan, former school teacher (primary/secondary I don't care) with 'a degree in economics' is aptly qualified as finance Minister for a country,?

Or would you agree that their academic qualifications are irrelevant?

tayto lover · 15-04-2014 10:49pm

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

But back to the ESRI. Highly credentialed economists.

David McWilliams has a go.

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2011/09/07/esri-has-been-getting-its-forecasts-wrong-for-years

No. They don't like him either. See earlier post.
It has to be a party man.

Frank Lee Midere · 15-04-2014 10:51pm

oscarBravo wrote: »

You're right. I'm going to get my accounts done by my florist next year. After all, it's only logical to conclude that if not every expert in a field has been right all the time about everything, then every expert in that field is always wrong about everything.

Jesus, I really wish Irish schools would teach people the rudiments of formal logic.

I wish they taught you some. The ESRI is the foremost authority in Ireland in this supposed "science".

They are not just wrong but totally useless. No actual science has such lack of predictive powers. Having simple mathematics is not enough, the maths had to actually work - has to predict the future. Physicists don't get nobels for theorising but when the theories are proved.

Frank Lee Midere · 15-04-2014 10:52pm

tayto lover wrote: »

No. They don't like him either. See earlier post.
It has to be a party man.

The post is McWilliams pointing out how useless the ESRI is. What's who likes or doesn't like him got to do with it?

oscarBravo · 15-04-2014 10:53pm

Banjo String wrote: »

Just for clarity.

Are you of the opinion that Michael Noonan, former school teacher (primary/secondary I don't care) with 'a degree in economics' is aptly qualified as finance Minister for a country,?

Or would you agree that their academic qualifications are irrelevant?

I'm not comparing the two. I'm taking issue with the idea that an engineer is better qualified to understand economics than an economist, which is a bit like saying that someone with mental health problems would be better off talking to an astrophysicist than a psychologist, because astrophysics is more scientific than psychology.

Frank Lee Midere · 15-04-2014 10:54pm

From Mcwillams piece.

"For example, back in the boom, as late as 2007, one of the chief bottle-washers at the ESRI dismissed the chances of a property crash. This was picked up by a property editor who said: “If he believed there was a crash coming then he would sell his house and rent it back. Tellingly, he is not doing this because he believes, as I do, that if (and that is a big ‘if’) the market is going to crash, it will do so in a patchy, selective way which will not impact to any great degree on many of the existing homes in Ireland.”

The property editor was probably an economist.

tayto lover · 15-04-2014 10:55pm

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

The post is McWilliams pointing out how useless the ESRI is. What's who likes or doesn't like him got to do with it?

Exactly. I posted the same post and they tried to blacken Mc Williams just because he was right.

oscarBravo · 15-04-2014 10:55pm

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

No actual science has such lack of predictive powers. Having simple mathematics is not enough, the maths had to actually work - has to predict the future. Physicists don't get nobels for theorising but when the theories are proved.

Let's follow the argument to its logical conclusion. Is it your contention that we could replace every economist in the world with a random number generator - better yet, a physicist - with no negative outcomes to the world's economy?

Frank Lee Midere · 15-04-2014 10:56pm

oscarBravo wrote: »

Let's follow the argument to its logical conclusion. Is it your contention that we could replace every economist in the world with a random number generator - better yet, a physicist - with no negative outcomes to the world's economy?

No it would probably be better. Obviously with the physicist. But probably a monkey. Or anybody down in the pub.

Frank Lee Midere · 15-04-2014 10:58pm

Here's more from that article.

"For example, in December 2005 — when the odd non-establishment maverick was saying the economy would crash — the ESRI produced a long-range forecast (similar to the one it produced this week), which was supposed to tell us where we would be by 2010.
According to its “worst-case scenario”, Irish GDP would be €196,876m; in fact, it is €166,345m. At worst, according to the ESRI, our debt-to-GDP ratio would be 16pc; by 2010 it was actually 66pc and rising rapidly.
It forecast that the 2010 Budget deficit would be, at worst, 0.3pc GDP; it was, in fact, 14.3pc of GDP."

Maybe a drunken monkey.

oscarBravo · 15-04-2014 11:00pm

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

No it would probably be better. Obviously with the physicist. But probably a monkey. Or anybody down in the pub.

Ah, OK. Sorry, I thought for a second we were having a serious conversation. My mistake - you're just mouthing off.

Carry on.

Frank Lee Midere · 15-04-2014 11:01pm

I am totally serious about this. Science has to be predictive. The best Irish economists couldn't predict a bust but people on the Internet could tell that a housing bust was imminent ( hat tip - SE England is going to bust). They were off in some calculations by orders of magnitude. That's not science.

Doherty is right to question these muppets - the entire field is a sham.

Frank Lee Midere · 15-04-2014 11:04pm

oscarBravo wrote: »

Ah, OK. Sorry, I thought for a second we were having a serious conversation. My mistake - you're just mouthing off.

Carry on.

No I am being totally serious. Economics is not a science. I am treating it as not a science. I am saying that it - like other non-sciences - can't legitimately play credentialism. That's like theologians dismissing Dawkins because he hasn't read enough theology. I have also clearly demonstrated that the actual body we are taking about can't predict anything.

There is no mouthing off. The ESRI is not credible.

Mardy Bum · 15-04-2014 11:04pm

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

Here's more from that article.

"For example, in December 2005 — when the odd non-establishment maverick was saying the economy would crash — the ESRI produced a long-range forecast (similar to the one it produced this week), which was supposed to tell us where we would be by 2010.
According to its “worst-case scenario”, Irish GDP would be €196,876m; in fact, it is €166,345m. At worst, according to the ESRI, our debt-to-GDP ratio would be 16pc; by 2010 it was actually 66pc and rising rapidly.
It forecast that the 2010 Budget deficit would be, at worst, 0.3pc GDP; it was, in fact, 14.3pc of GDP."

Maybe a drunken monkey.

Yes the ESRI should have realised that the US would let Lehman Brothers sink and in the process set off the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression which affected most of the world as a result.

McWilliams is no Morgan Kelly. He is a publicity merchant.

tayto lover · 15-04-2014 11:05pm

oscarBravo wrote: »

Ah, OK. Sorry, I thought for a second we were having a serious conversation. My mistake - you're just mouthing off.

Carry on.

The dying kick.

Mardy Bum · 15-04-2014 11:07pm

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

No I am being totally serious. Economics is not a science. I am treating it as not a science. I am saying that it - like other non-sciences - can't legitimately play credentialism. That's like theologians dismissing Dawkins because he hasn't read enough theology. I have also clearly demonstrated that the actual body we are taking about can't predict anything.

There is no mouthing off. The ESRI is not credible.

Economics is a social science like psychology and sociology.
Do you trust psychologists?

JRant · 15-04-2014 11:07pm

The biggest problem that I see with the ESRi is that they still believe in this myth of sustainable growth.

If we take a modest prediction of 2% growth we get a doubling time of 35 years. So in 35 years we will have consumed twice as much of the resources as we have consumed in our entire history to date.

A simple understanding of basic maths shows what a fallacy the whole thing is.

How, or more importantly why, are academics not able to understand simple exponential functions?

tayto lover · 15-04-2014 11:10pm

Mardy Bum wrote: »

Yes the ESRI should have realised that the US would let Lehman Brothers sink and in the process set off the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression which affected most of the world as a result.

McWilliams is no Morgan Kelly. He is a publicity merchant.

Is that "soft landing" Morgan Kelly ?

Mardy Bum · 15-04-2014 11:12pm

tayto lover wrote: »

Is that "soft landing" Morgan Kelly ?

You have no idea about economics or economists do you?

tayto lover · 15-04-2014 11:14pm

Mardy Bum wrote: »

You have no idea about economics or economists do you?

BUT i'm learning from all you experts and your economist friends.:pac:
I might even apply for party membership.

TheHappyChappy · 15-04-2014 11:14pm

Great to see all the sheep still here

Not many with much economic imagination to think beyond ESRI propaganda

The stupid Irish will need a few more tough economic lessons IMHO

Mardy Bum · 15-04-2014 11:19pm

tayto lover wrote: »

BUT i'm learning from all you experts and your economist friends.:pac:
I might even apply for party membership.

Here is a link to some teaching material from UCD related to macroeconomics and econometrics. Now if you want to learn something and inform yourself have a gander.

Permabear · 15-04-2014 11:20pm

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tayto lover · 15-04-2014 11:22pm

Mardy Bum wrote: »

Here is a link to some teaching material from UCD related to macroeconomics and econometrics. Now if you want to learn something and inform yourself have a gander.

Did any of our disgraced "experts" read this stuff?

Banjo String · 15-04-2014 11:23pm

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Same reason as cows do.

(outstanding in their fields)

macscoob · 15-04-2014 11:41pm

tayto lover wrote: »

Did any of our disgraced "experts" read this stuff?

Yeah........ Pearse Dotherty

flutered · 15-04-2014 11:49pm

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

I am totally serious about this. Science has to be predictive. The best Irish economists couldn't predict a bust but people on the Internet could tell that a housing bust was imminent ( hat tip - SE England is going to bust). They were off in some calculations by orders of magnitude. That's not science.

Doherty is right to question these muppets - the entire field is a sham.

as a person who was one told to commit sucide by the then t-sshock i am in agreement with doherty this time.

alastair · 15-04-2014 11:57pm

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

But back to the ESRI. Highly credentialed economists.

David McWilliams has a go.

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2011/09/07/esri-has-been-getting-its-forecasts-wrong-for-years

And the same man only a couple of months earlier:

In the boom many of us economists said and wrote silly things (myself included) now it is better if we collectively stop flinging mud at each other, not least because we should all be on the same side.

That side, as I see it, is explaining to the citizens (and each other) what is going on as best we can, in order to educate and inform so that this never happens again. I realize that there are various ways of doing this and my own chosen method is not to everyone’s taste. But thats hardly matters.

For example, this website is the best thing to have happened economics in Ireland in a long time and but when it descends into a slagging match, its currency becomes devalued.

The ESRI made mistakes, who hasn’t?

So let’s be generous not petty.

oscarBravo · 16-04-2014 10:27am

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

No I am being totally serious.

You're being "totally serious" in your assertion that every economist in the world could be replaced by a random number generator, a monkey or a bloke down the pub without any negative consequences?

That's a lot worse than mouthing off.

Scofflaw · 16-04-2014 4:05pm

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

On the basis of plausibility and elegance. There is no economic theory I'm aware of that has anything approaching the kind of 'proven' status you find in the sciences, never mind mathematics. Even the basic underlying assumptions of economic theory are mostly unproven.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Permabear · 16-04-2014 4:44pm

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Chips Lovell · 16-04-2014 4:52pm

Its curious Doherty is labelling the ESRI as government mouthpieces in a week where the divergence in the outlook of the ESRI and the government has been noted. As reported in the Irish Times:

Mr Noonan’s endorsement of the unwavering demand for a €2 billion adjustment next year reflects concern in his department to avoid giving line Ministers the impression that they can slacken the effort to assert control over the public finances.

This conservative approach is mirrored in the department’s update of its own official forecast for economic growth, which is appreciably below the forecast set out last week by the ESRI.

If they were in cahoots, you'd think they'd get their stories straight.

Godge · 16-04-2014 6:33pm

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

Its curious Doherty is labelling the ESRI as government mouthpieces in a week where the divergence in the outlook of the ESRI and the government has been noted. As reported in the Irish Times:

If they were in cahoots, you'd think they'd get their stories straight.

You won't need to wait too long. As soon as Doherty realises that the Government wants more austerity against the advice and forecasts of the ESRI, he will be castigating Noonan for not listening to what the ESRI says. The man flies with the wind and hasn't a thought of his own.

JRant · 16-04-2014 6:50pm

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

Its curious Doherty is labelling the ESRI as government mouthpieces in a week where the divergence in the outlook of the ESRI and the government has been noted. As reported in the Irish Times:

If they were in cahoots, you'd think they'd get their stories straight.

It makes sense for the DoF to plan for worst. They can then lavish praise upon themselves if even slight above target.

I do love the politic speak in the DoF statement. Using Adjustment instead of cuts to make their actions seem more palatable.

Permabear · 16-04-2014 6:57pm

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Frank Lee Midere · 16-04-2014 7:17pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

On the basis of plausibility and elegance. There is no economic theory I'm aware of that has anything approaching the kind of 'proven' status you find in the sciences, never mind mathematics. Even the basic underlying assumptions of economic theory are mostly unproven.

cordially,
Scofflaw

In fact I am teaching myself undergraduate economics. It's utterly unscientific.

Radiosonde · 16-04-2014 7:19pm

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Interestingly, Nobel's will didn't establish the Economics prize; it was established and endowed by Sweden's Riksbanken.

Frank Lee Midere · 16-04-2014 7:22pm

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

The attacks on economics were in response to you attacking Doherty for merely having an engineering degree. That's going to raise hackles on a geeky place like boards. In any case do you fully accept the beliefs of Nobel winning economist Paul Krugman?. No you don't. Based on ideological principles. But there are no idealogical steady state theorists - there were but the evidence proved them wrong.

Mardy Bum · 16-04-2014 7:35pm

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

The attacks on economics were in response to you attacking Doherty for merely having an engineering degree. That's going to raise hackles on a geeky place like boards. In any case do you fully accept the beliefs of Nobel winning economist Paul Krugman?. No you don't. Based on ideological principles. But there are no idealogical steady state theorists - there were but the evidence proved them wrong.

Getting solid economic data is a phenomenally hard to thing to do especially, macro data. It is this difficulty which then makes many of models unreliable.

sarumite · 16-04-2014 8:18pm

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Alfred Nobel never designated a prize for economics (or maths). The economics prize was added by the Swedish central bank in the late 60's and although it is commonly referred to as the 'Nobel prize in Econmics', its official name is (at this point I am heading to wiki) ...Nobel Memorial Prize.

sarumite · 16-04-2014 8:24pm

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

The attacks on economics were in response to you attacking Doherty for merely having an engineering degree. That's going to raise hackles on a geeky place like boards. In any case do you fully accept the beliefs of Nobel winning economist Paul Krugman?. No you don't. Based on ideological principles. But there are no idealogical steady state theorists - there were but the evidence proved them wrong.

There are plenty of disagreements in physics. The comparison of economics to the physical sciences is not really just. In the physical sciences, you are usually dealing with closed systems. In biology for example, people use cloned mice to limit variability. In chemistry they use pure chemicals to limit variability. In physics they can use specific instruments designed to limit variability. In economics you don't have that luxery as you are trying to work within a completely open system. Furthermore when you consider that the political and social factors will impact any economic model (both rational and irrational factors), it makes it an infinitely more difficult system to work with than in most scientific disciplines.

JRant · 16-04-2014 8:39pm

Permabear wrote: »

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So spending cuts and/or wage cuts. It all boils down to the same thing. Citizens will either have their services cut or take home pay cut.

Permabear · 16-04-2014 8:53pm

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Permabear · 16-04-2014 9:01pm

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COYW · 16-04-2014 10:33pm

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

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And what makes him judge and jury on it? He has absolutely no proven experience or knowledge in the area.

Permabear wrote: »

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He dropped out of his degree level studies at Letterkenny Institute of Technology, which he pursued after completing that certificate level course. Couldn't hack a course in LIT and yet the people of Donegal deem him suitable to represent them in office; mind-boggling stuff. A hard neck goes a long way in this country. Up there with Bertie and his claims that he studied at University College Dublin and the London School of Economics.

Permabear · 16-04-2014 10:48pm

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Fair play to Pearse Doherty

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