Logically Sinn Fein are right

KELTICKNIGHTT wrote: »

china and usa aint going too help,they have there own things too deal with,sf sf suppoerters think burn bondholder,so bye too imf and eu and go across too usa,says it all there,sf no clue

Your posting to this thread, the same old tired argument over and over again, even though I addressed this point previously to you, do you not read. China has already offered to help buy up the debt of Greece and Portugal.You make blank empty statements like this all the time, do some research.

maccored wrote: »

This is nothing like the 80s btw.

Here you'll see that in 1990, 26.7% of our tax take went on debt interest. In 2010 it was 11%. Public debt/GDP reached 120% in the 80s, it won't go that high this time.

It's not fair that the Irish taxpayer is paying for all of this, but it's quite doable. It would only be somewhat better if we had burned the bond-holders, we'd still be in the poo, we'd still need the IMF/EU loan, and we'd still need massive cuts in Welfare and Health along with big tax hikes.

But we'd feel better about it.

jimaneejeebus wrote: »

What about the huge great elephant in the corner that no-one seems to have a blind notion as to how we ever think we're going to feed the f**ker

With the EU/IMF money we have four years to reduce our budget deficit to a managable level. Once this is achieved we will be able to borrow on the bond markets again at a lower rate of interest than that of the bailout money. We borrow on the bond markets to repay the EU/IMF. The reason the interest rate for the bailout is quite high is to give us an incentive to pay it off asap, they are making sure they get their money back.

Whatever you think of the current plan, SFs plan is just stupid. It would see us out of money by the end of the year (NPRF will be gone in a few months), with a higher budget deficit (because they want to get rid of USC and reverse cuts) and no one to borrow money from (who in their right mind would give money to someone who has just defaulted on billions of euro of loans?). How can you worry about repaying debt in the future if we cant even pay teachers, gardai, nurses, etc. this year?

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

With the EU/IMF money we have four years to reduce our budget deficit to a managable level. Once this is achieved we will be able to borrow on the bond markets again at a lower rate of interest than that of the bailout money. We borrow on the bond markets to repay the EU/IMF. The reason the interest rate for the bailout is quite high is to give us an incentive to pay it off asap, they are making sure they get their money back.

Whatever you think of the current plan, SFs plan is just stupid. It would see us out of money by the end of the year (NPRF will be gone in a few months), with a higher budget deficit (because they want to get rid of USC and reverse cuts) and no one to borrow money from (who in their right mind would give money to someone who has just defaulted on billions of euro of loans?). How can you worry about repaying debt in the future if we cant even pay teachers, gardai, nurses, etc. this year?

Pay it off asap? We wont be paying off the EU/IMF loan any time soon, according to the economist on Frontline last week. We'll be 'recycling' it and paying the interest indefinitely.

Plus, we wouldnt run out of money before the end of the year if we declined the bailout - we'd have approx 16 months within which time it would need to be decided which bonderholders get paid and which dont.

Soldie wrote: »

What I find strange is that the Sinn Féin supporters who infest each and every thread that is in any way related to Northern Ireland (of which there are now 4 on the main page of the politics forum) are nowhere to be seen whenever there's a thread scrutinising Sinn Féin's economic policies. Why is that? Do they realise that their economic policies are pure fantasy, but support them anyway, in light of their republicanism?

Have you considered that there may be more Sinn Fein closet supporters out there than people realise. Particulary Fianna Fail supporters who will not be voting for Fianna Fail this time but also cannot bring themselves to vote for Fine Gael.... Just a thought

And before you accuse me I'm not a Sinn Fein supporter but I do agree with separating sovereign debt from bank debt as put forward by Dave McWilliams/Sinn Fein

Euroland wrote: »

Now there is broad agreement among leading Irish and foreign economists and financiers that Ireland has very high probability of sovereign default around 2013-2014.

People keep saying this without linking to any Irish or foreign economist who actually does think that.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

People keep saying this without linking to any Irish or foreign economist who actually does think that.

There is lot of evidence out there to support the Sinn Fein Stance.

The single currency dropped sharply as fears over eurozone sovereign debt resurfaced.

The euro came under pressure on concerns that Portugal could yet follow Greece and Ireland and ask for a bail-out from its eurozone partners to shore up its finances.

The yields on Portuguese 10-year government bonds rose to a euro-era high, forcing the European Central Bank, which temporarily suspended its bond buying programme last month, back into the market to buy Lisbon’s paper. “Just as the market thought that eurozone officials had the crisis in hand and the euro could resume its up trend, sovereign debt fears have once again crawled out of the woodwork,” said Kathleen Brooks, of Forex.com.

She said that one reason for the shift in sentiment was the tone of debate regarding eurozone nations that have received bail-outs already.

The European Central Bank has warned that Greece and Ireland should not default on their debts or impose penalties on senior bondholders. “However, investors will not be hoodwinked and see the chances of Ireland Greece eventually defaulting as fairly high,” said Ms Brooks. “By dismissing fears about this prospect, instead of trying to come up with an orderly mechanism for default, the European authorities are causing market jitters.”

By Peter Garaham.



Citicorp Chief Economist Willem Buiter recently issued a report concluding that six European countries are in or on the brink of insolvency -- i.e., at high risk of sovereign default. He summed up Ireland's plight by dismissing the EU bailout: "Accessing external sources of funds will not mark the end of Ireland's troubles. The reason is that, in our view, the consolidated Irish sovereign and Irish domestic financial system is de facto insolvent. The Irish sovereign cannot from its own resources 'bail out' the banks and make its own creditors whole."

Other analysts see a substantial risk of Ireland's de facto insolvency triggering a contagion that will spread to the other overindebted nations on Buiter's list: Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece and Belgium.

From this perspective, the widely cheered EU bailouts will only delay Ireland's bankruptcy because they increase the nation's total debt burden while reducing its GDP and greatly adding to the cost of servicing those debts. In this scenario, interest as a percentage of GDP rises each year.

How Ireland Got in Such Dire Straits

How did Ireland, and indeed all the other global economies that are suffering from burst real estate bubbles, get into such a mess? I've prepared a chart to help explain the way in which cheap, easy-to-borrow money combines with rising asset prices and tax revenues to create a "virtuous cycle," in which higher property values leverage higher debts.

analucija wrote: »

You can try to avoid the question as much as you want but you still didn't manage to answer where will we find the money for everyday funding.

BTW Argentina is often mentioned as an example. I know an elderly couple who were among upper middle class when crisis struck. Their savings and pensions were wiped out, his business was gone. They were actually lucky because his wife got small state pension as former a headmistress. They were borrowing from relatives and friends outside Argentina just to survive. I think Argentina can borrow money on international markets now but the crisis was in the early 2000s.

I would prefer to negotiate a little bit than bet everything on ridiculous idea that we will get all the money we need for public funding in the bond markets next year. While not doing anything to reduce budget deficit. Do you really think banks are the only problem?

Here is an news item about the Greece bail out in 2010.. interesting reading.

The Greek rescue package will fail, according to Cristina Fernández, Argentina’s president, whose country suffered the world’s biggest debt default in 2001.

She said the bail-out repeated “the same recipes they applied to us, which provoked [what happened in] 2001”. Argentina, as an IMF member, voted for the Greek bail-out, but “critically”, Ms Fernández said, adding the enforced austerity will have “terrible consequences” on the economy.

“They are repeating prescriptions whereby what they are trying to do is rescue the financial system. We believe these policies are condemned to failure and that is why we don’t apply them in our country.”

In the 1990s, Argentina was a devotee of the pro-market Washington Consensus and pegged the peso to the dollar. But it racked up debt and its economy crashed. Argentina savagely devalued its currency and became a pariah on international financial markets.

The government has never forgiven the IMF for what it considers were reckless policy prescriptions. It paid off its $10bn debt to the lender in full in 2006 and still refuses to submit to IMF reviews of its accounts

Speaking at an event on Monday night to refinance debt for Argentina’s provinces, Ms Fernández defended the demand-driven economic model, which has delivered several years of high growth, championed by her husband, Néstor Kirchner, in his 2003-07 government and which she has continued since.

“Since 2003 we have been applying a totally different model that has permitteda very strong and very sustained reduction in the nation’s debt,” she said.

Ironically, Argentina is now seeking to issue new debt as part of a debt swap designed to mop up nearly $20bn unpaid since the 2001 default. The Greek rescue plan initially cheered markets, boosting Argentine bonds and giving a fillip to the swap prospects. But the uncertain outlook may well force Argentina to postpone the plans to raise $1bn in new money, which was to have been launched in tandem to the swap.

KIERAN1 wrote: »

There is lot of evidence out there to support the Sinn Fein Stance.

There is absolutely no evidence out there to support the Sinn Fein stance. There may be some evidence to support individual parts of SFs stance (ie. defaulting on senior bondholder debt), but the whole thing is suiside.

Who says that unilaterally defaulting on senior bondholder debt which would lose us the support of the ECB for our other banks, thus destroying our entire banking system, is a good idea?

Who says rejecting the EU/IMF bailout money and trying to cover our €17bn budget deficit with our €4bn NPRF and then being forced to slash government spending by €13bn in one year is a good idea?

Who says defaulting on bondholder debt and then hoping that we are able to borrow on the bond markets again next year at a low interest, despite the fact that Iceland could not after defaulting on bank debt, is a good idea?

Who says reversing all budget cuts and scraping tax increases thereby increasing our budget deficit is a good idea?

Note; Pearse Doherty is not an acceptable answer to the above questions.