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Potential SHTF scenarios & tinfoil hat thread (Please read post 1)
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This is interesting.Hu Jintao tells China navy: Prepare for warfare
China's navy should speed up its development and prepare for warfare, President Hu Jintao has said.
He told military personnel they should "make extended preparations for warfare".
China is locked in territorial disputes with several other nations in the South China Sea. Political tension is also growing with the US, which is seeking to boost its presence in the region.
After Mr Hu's comments, the US said China was entitled to defend itself.
"Nobody's looking for a scrap here," said Pentagon spokesman Admiral John Kirby in quotes carried by the AFP news agency.
"Certainly we wouldn't begrudge any other nation the opportunity to develop naval forces."
I've been keeping half an eye on the situation in the South China sea for a while, looks like its warming up to what could be a right mess. This is the difference between what China claims and what international treaties have agreed:
If they try and enforce that they'll have a war with all of SE Asia, and it looks like they might just have the stones to give it a shot. Obviously that would pull in the US and everyone else as well.0 -
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So they are going to ....do what militarily exactly with a few million young men???
Somhow I just cant see a Red Dawn [new version] scenario happening in reality."If you want to keep someone away from your house, Just fire the shotgun through the door."
Vice President [and former lawyer] Joe Biden Field& Stream Magazine interview Feb 2013 "
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[QUOTE=Sparks;75934566]You do realise that the bill doesn't change anything?
You've been able to defend yourself in your home without fear of prosecution under our system of law since the 1300s. This isn't even close to the first time this has been discussed on boards.ie either.[/QUOTE]
My Rottie can't read so dont think she was pushed with what the law said she just sees a snack
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Not sure if this is the right forum for it or not but here goes...
I had a big post written out, then highlighted it to copy into another forum and accidentally pasted something else in it's place and couldn't Undo :clapper:
This comes from several threads I've been reading on several forums, and a chat I had with a friend today.
One thing I would like to be left out of this is the politics of the Euro, the EU, the UK, the ROI and any other country, start another thread for them please
The scenario is this. You have X amount of a currency which is in danger of collapse, let's say a few thousand. You want to convert that paper money into something tangible that after the **** hit's the fan that would have retained it's value through that messy transition.
We first talked of Gold, but I think gold is in a bubble at the moment. Too many are investing in it, it's like property was 10 years ago, sure the value can only go up (until Italy or some other large country dumps it's thousands of tons of gold onto the market to raise cash). We did agree that smaller value gold coins would be easier to dispose of post currency collapse than large value coins, better odds on people having small sums of money to spend than large. So Gold was ruled out.
Then we moved onto foreign currency. But, paper money is all about confidence, if a major world currency were to collapse that collapse would have major repercussions for economies all around the world, from those economies that make things like China, to consumer/service economies like the EU/USA. There is also the question of what type of limits, charges and taxes would be applied to foreign currency conversion post currency collapse, which could be punitive. I don't think foreign currency is as good a bet as is made out. So that was ruled out.
Farm land was mentioned, and I think there is some merit to that idea. Food can be grown, animals raised, allotments leased out, there are options there. But, there is a large problem in that land isn't always sold quickly if one needed to liquidate that asset and turn it into new currency paper money for any reason.
Two other suggestions were whiskey and ammunition. I don't believe whiskey would run short but it may retain it's value, I'm just not sure, it doesn't feel certain to me. Ammunition has the big problem of legality, one can only hold so many rounds in this jurisdiction, BUT, even with things going well importers are sometimes slow and there have been ammo shortages. I'd not like to have a house fire storing either!
We didn't settle on any item or items being a good idea to date. What we did agree was that lower to medium value items, which keep in good/perfect condition over time and are easily converted back into currency would be a good idea.
What would you think those items to be? That is the question 0 -
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For savings (ie. funds I don't want to touch for a few years anyway), I'm going with blue chip stocks (specifically a tracker fund that has several stocks contained within it). Things like Coca-cola aren't going to fall over tomorrow if the eurozone collapses, and I'm more worried about an enforced currency change than I am about speculating on short-term stock fluctuations.johngalway wrote: »What would you think those items to be? That is the question
And for the short-term, we keep a fair amount of nonperishable food in the house, as well as spare light bulbs, fuses, DIY repair kit, tools, household stuff, etc. It has the dual advantage of being useful if things go to pot for a month or so (whether because of currency change or because of bad weather snowing you in, or because of the car breaking down!); and not looking like you're actively planning for the end of the world. I mean, it's lasagne and beans and tinned coconut milk and squashes and jam and honey and so on; and if I buy a primal from keypack's factory shop and put it in the chest freezer, it's not just making sure you have an oh-crap stash, but it's just good household management (you're saving money doing this).
For the medium-term (ie. what do you do with the few thousand you have in your bank accounts over the course of a month from when the pay packet comes in to when the rent/mortgage/utilities/other bills go out) - a currency change would cause havoc there until it settled down and even then, you have questions like "What will my mortgage be in after, euros or punts?", "Will my tracker mortgage follow the ECB interest rate or the Central Banks now?", and so on.
I did ask an economist about this once - the old "In the event of the EU going nuclear (ie. breaking up the eurozone), how do you do whatever cockroaches do to survive that?". The answer was that it's pretty impossible to mutate into a cockroach on demand, and that if it happens, everyone's getting a slice of a most unpleasant sandwich anyways, so at best you can ameliorate it a bit, but you can't duck all of it.
If the college fund type of savings are safe, and we won't starve this month, I figure you're ahead of the game enough to figure out what comes next when you have actual data to work with.0 -
If I had a limit of €5k right now to spare this is how I would spend my bob's:
€1500 - Non perishable foodstuff, minimum 3 months of basic (nutritional) food for family but as proved on the other thread this could feed two people for a year!
€400 - Van hire/ferry tickets & fuel to mainland europe to buy cheap products. Poland would be a good choice of desintation and then buy:
€1500 - Tobacco, varrious brands and mix of rolling/ready made
€600 - HIGH RISK Wholesale products (from Germany) similar to a €2 store but items like multi tools, kids toys, seeds, home products...blah, blah.....
€1000 - Your choice of safe currency, dollars, sterling, Singapore dollar, gold....Personally I would go sterling.
If I had €10k - As above with 1 acre of arable land
If I had €15k - As above with 2 acres
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johngalway wrote: »Not sure if this is the right forum for it or not but here goes...
I had a big post written out, then highlighted it to copy into another forum and accidentally pasted something else in it's place and couldn't Undo :clapper:
This comes from several threads I've been reading on several forums, and a chat I had with a friend today.
One thing I would like to be left out of this is the politics of the Euro, the EU, the UK, the ROI and any other country, start another thread for them please
The scenario is this. You have X amount of a currency which is in danger of collapse, let's say a few thousand. You want to convert that paper money into something tangible that after the **** hit's the fan that would have retained it's value through that messy transition.
We first talked of Gold, but I think gold is in a bubble at the moment. Too many are investing in it, it's like property was 10 years ago, sure the value can only go up (until Italy or some other large country dumps it's thousands of tons of gold onto the market to raise cash). We did agree that smaller value gold coins would be easier to dispose of post currency collapse than large value coins, better odds on people having small sums of money to spend than large. So Gold was ruled out.
Then we moved onto foreign currency. But, paper money is all about confidence, if a major world currency were to collapse that collapse would have major repercussions for economies all around the world, from those economies that make things like China, to consumer/service economies like the EU/USA. There is also the question of what type of limits, charges and taxes would be applied to foreign currency conversion post currency collapse, which could be punitive. I don't think foreign currency is as good a bet as is made out. So that was ruled out.
Farm land was mentioned, and I think there is some merit to that idea. Food can be grown, animals raised, allotments leased out, there are options there. But, there is a large problem in that land isn't always sold quickly if one needed to liquidate that asset and turn it into new currency paper money for any reason.
Two other suggestions were whiskey and ammunition. I don't believe whiskey would run short but it may retain it's value, I'm just not sure, it doesn't feel certain to me. Ammunition has the big problem of legality, one can only hold so many rounds in this jurisdiction, BUT, even with things going well importers are sometimes slow and there have been ammo shortages. I'd not like to have a house fire storing either!
We didn't settle on any item or items being a good idea to date. What we did agree was that lower to medium value items, which keep in good/perfect condition over time and are easily converted back into currency would be a good idea.
What would you think those items to be? That is the question
Hi John.Welcome!;)
Just wanted to point out a few things.
1] The Gold and Italy or whomever dumping their thousands[tens of tons] of tons...:D
NOT going to happen! The EU membership stipulated that any country with a gold reserve had to give it up on joining the Euro...Guess where it is??Yup Frankfurt!!!Only currency that still has its reserves is our neighbours the British,safley locked in the bank of England.:p Thousands of tons,maybe the US in Fort Knox,but thats even questionable.:eek:
2] Farm land,while becoming cheaper,and not likely to be picked up and carried away,is more than likely to be "stolen" off you in taxes and upkeep,not to mind some Govt type saying that anyone with a holding over a certain hecterage is an "absntee landlord" or some such rubbish and it should be distributed to the masses[whoever the Hell the masses are!]Also,how are you going to do a transaction when the banks arent lending,the revenue/CAB is on the prowl for large cash transactions and so on?
Whiskey and ammo.True,local rotgut might be available in some shape or form.More likely moonshine ..But Remy Martin brandy,Jack Daniels,and a whole host of imported whiskies and others will disapper pretty quickly off the shelves as it will become a high end luxury item.
ammo,despite the restrictions of how much can be held,a 1000 rounds isnt that hard to aquire on your FAC.As well as that I am looking at that extreme post SHTF,not just a currency crash when there still is law and order hopefully.House fire,contray to Hollywood,it just cooks off and makes intresting bangs or Phuts as the case maybe.No bulletts whizzing all over the place.:P
Would agree with a lot of folks here Ciggeretts and rollybaccy as currency,as well as most of the more common items in a Euro shop.
Especially normal brand name ciggs,post war germany,Lucky Strikes and Camels post Soviet Russia the Malboro packet became almost the offical currency for citizen transactions.
Have a couple of friends who grew up in Communist Germany and their perspectives on what to stock is quite intresting.The most common items like razors,toothpaste,toothbrushes,disposable pens and lighters were of immnse scarity in the East blocs.All the ques werent just for bread and food but everyone decending on the one shop that had the current shortage item in stock.which was just about everything we take for granted now in the consumer society.
They knew one old bloke who kept a store of parts for the Trabant car,even after the wall came down and everyone thought he was daft,and werre using their old Trabants as stock cars and demolition derby wrecks.
By and by the Trabant has become a collectors piece,but find a good one and parts for it.That old coot is now a millionare,selling spare Trabant parts:D.What might be ****e today might be valueable tomrrow."If you want to keep someone away from your house, Just fire the shotgun through the door."
Vice President [and former lawyer] Joe Biden Field& Stream Magazine interview Feb 2013 "
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Join Date:Posts: 14646
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You might be more right than you know, it seems the plumes are coming from a greater depth than has been touched yet by climate change. And its not like nobody noticed before, this team has been working on the area for twenty years. What we have here is possibly the embodiment of the clathrate gun hypothesis, I did up a scenario for a roleplaying game on that a while back, pm me if anyone wants the link.Can I claim my carbon tax payments back then? Told you it wasn't my fault
So how serious is this? Some theories postulate that the Permian extinction, killing around 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrates, was caused by a sudden release of methane, and its popping out of the same place now as then.
Hows that for a SHTF scenario.
Pretty much anything could happen though, up to and including nothing at all...The consequences of a methane-driven oceanic eruption for marine and terrestrial life are likely to be catastrophic. Figuratively speaking, the erupting region "boils over," ejecting a large amount of methane and other gases (e.g., CO2, H2S) into the atmosphere, and flooding large areas of land.
Whereas pure methane is lighter than air, methane loaded with water droplets is much heavier, and thus spreads over the land, mixing with air in the process (and losing water as rain). The air-methane mixture is explosive at methane concentrations between 5% and 15%; as such mixtures form in different locations near the ground and are ignited by lightning, explosions and conflagrations destroy most of the terrestrial life, and also produce great amounts of smoke and of carbon dioxide.
Firestorms carry smoke and dust into the upper atmosphere, where they may remain for several years; the resulting darkness and global cooling may provide an additional kill mechanism. Conversely, carbon dioxide and the remaining methane create the greenhouse effect, which may lead to global warming. The outcome of the competition between the cooling and the warming tendencies is difficult to predict.
Burning ice around 1:20
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Lake Nyos, that was it.asphyxiated by great walloping clouds of CO2, as used to happen near that African lake periodically, name escapes me at the moment.On August 21, 1986, possibly triggered by a landslide, Lake Nyos suddenly emitted a large cloud of CO2, which suffocated 1,700 people and 3,500 livestock in nearby towns and villages. Though not completely unprecedented, it was the first known large-scale asphyxiation caused by a natural event. To prevent a recurrence, a degassing tube that syphons water from the bottom layers of water to the top allowing the carbon dioxide to leak in safe quantities was installed in 2001, though additional tubes are needed to make the lake safe.
By my reckoning the safest places to be would be around North Africa and the Middle East, maybe central America, which by coincidence (or maybe not) served as the birthplace of human civilisation. See the map of global wind patterns:
Europe, North America, Russia, all pretty much gone, but the prevailing westerlies and tropical easterlies should shunt most of the cloud cover around the equator and temperate zones. Also Africa as a continent is largely elevated and so insulated from sea rises. Thats making a lot of assumptions of course.0 -
Thought this was great, where do you plan to spend the apocalypse?December 21, 2012 marks the end of the current cycle of the Mayan “Long Count” calendar. And while this has had some fearful types preparing for the end of the world, others have been preparing to travel.
The Mexican government is expecting 52 million tourists to visit the five regions -- Chiapas, Yucatan, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and Campeche, over the next 12 months, says the Latin American Herald Tribune.
According to goverment reports, the boom is part of Mexican President Felipe Calderon's tourism campaign: "Mundo Maya 2012," to promote Mexico as a unique destination.
So, if you're wondering where to spend the last tourist dollars you'll have as a breathing human being or just want to see the looks on those faces when December 21 comes and goes uneventfully, President Felipe Calderon hopes you'll choose Mexico.
Fair play to the Mexicans for cashing in, I'd do the same if I could. 0 -
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Dr Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...
Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave!
Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!
these guys must have been on some trip 0 -
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