8-10's Baseball system log

Ok when I say 'system' I mean a disciplined strategy that worked decently for me last season on a smaler scale. Give me a few months at this and we'll see if it's worth it overall.

So baseball is probably my all-time favourite sport. I went to school in the USA and have lived here for the past 6 months, although returning to Ireland this week. I am by no means an expert, but I can assure you I watch more baseball the your average American.

What my strategy is is this: I concentrate on starting pitchers. I have a list of 17 pitchers that I typically bet on, but for this I've whittled it down to 12 (wanted 10 but can't leave any out). These 12 are pretty much ace's for the teams they play for.

The bet: when I see 2 of my pitchers starting for their teams, I do a double on both teams winning the first 5 innings for €5. The fact that I'm betting only on the first 5 means that I'm eliminating the risk of relievers and closers screwing up after the starter pitches. Of course the team is tasked with scoring more runs in the first 5 than the starter allows, but I've picked those teams with stronger line-ups and hopefully it'll come off. If scores are tied after 5, you get your money back.

The pitchers:

Matt Cain (San Francisco Giants) - Maybe slightly controversial. He had an impressive 2009 with 14 wins and 8 losses and an ERA of 2.89. Sure he was 15-30 for 3 seasons before that and had definitely turned the corner, but I saw him pitch last season a few times and he's going later and later into games, 8th inning sometimes, and posted a great ERA for the season. SF are poor offensively but I expect Cain to have a good season again, if maybe not quite sub 3.00ERA.

Tim Lincecum (San Francisco Giants) - What can you say? Superstar. 2-time defending NL Cy Young Award winner. And only 25. 15-7 last year with 2.48 ERA. As shocking as I mentioned SF are offensively, you can't not include Lincecum in this.

Chris Carpenter (St Louis Cardinals) - Runner-up to Lincecum in NL Cy Young ballot, Chris lead the NL in ERA last year with 2.24 and a record of 17-4. He also had an 11-game win streak including a 1-hitter in September. Chris also has the advantage of a quality offensive lineup including best-player-in-baseball Albert Pujols and strong hitters David Freese and Skip Schumaker.

Adam Wainwright (St Louis Cardinals) - The second part of what could be argued is the best 1-2 in baseball (Seattle fans may disagree). In any case he's an undoubted ace and had 19-8 with a 2.63 ERA (I'm open to correction but I think he was the only NL pitcher to record 19 wins in 2009)

Cliff Lee (Seattle Mariners) - Ok so I'm obviously including Seattle's 1-2 too! Lee just traded from Phillies after half a season. I was lucky enough to be here in Philadelphia when former AL Cy Young winner Lee went 4-0 in the postseason with a 1.56 ERA in 5 starts. He went 7-9 (3.14) with Cleveland in the AL before swithing leagues and going 7-4 (3.39) in the NL with the Phillies in 2009. I love watching this guy pitch. He works faster than anyone else around at the moment.

Felix Hernandez (Seattle Mariners) - Seattle's 19 win ace from 2009 (19-5) and a 2.49 ERA, Cliff Lee may be in town but Felix is still number 1. While my judgement is reserved for Mariners retaining Ken Griffey Jr and Suzuki that year older, I think there's still enough firepower (Chone Figgins is a great signing at 3B IMO) for these pitchers to work well (over 5 innings at least!)

Jon Lester (Boston Red Sox) - Although I feel they have the best rotation in baseball, it was hard to pick an ace to include. Beckett was unfortunate to get cut by me at the last. I love the guy, but if I have to put money on one of them it has to be Lester. Dice-K is injured and hurt me a lot with this strategy at the start of last season. Bucholz is still too raw for me, I've been watching him in spring training. Lackey will of course be quality but might to take time to settle. Wakefield is getting on and won't pitch as much, particularly when Dice-K is back. So Lester it is. 15-8 and 3.41 ERA was a very good return, but he's my pick because he goes into the game hot, it takes opposing teams a few innings to get the better of him so for a first 5 innings bet I pick him.

Dan Haren (Arizona Diamondbacks) - I think with Mark Reynolds and Justin Uptons supporting Haren and Brandon Webb if fit (Webb might possibly sub into this strategy later on if he plays like he can), Diamondbacks could do better than the experts predict. It's just a pity Dodgers, Giants and Rockies are in the same division. Haren is another ace you can't ignore, 14-10 with 3.14 ERA, this isn't a fancy, I have no allegiance, I just think Dan will win games this year.

CC Sabathia (New York Yankees) - 19 wins (8 losses), 3.37 ERA, and a World Series for the former Cy Young winner. Speaks for itself.

Justin Verlander (Detroit Tigers) - Tough tough season for Detroit last year and I don't see much better in 2010 with the players they've lost. But they keep Verlander, another 19 game winner in 2009 (9 losses) and an ERA of 3.45. A lot of strength in Justin, with most strikeouts in the AL in 2009 (269), and who also can go deep in games. No fear putting him in this and there's still strength in the offense despite losing the top 2 spots in the order.

Roy Halladay (Philadelphia Phillies) - We're not worthy! Best pitcher in Major League Baseball. Having lived in Toronto I've seen him pitch live a lot. Now living in Philly I'm excited to see him with this line-up behind him. Earmark Phillies for another World Series appearance and I don't even need to look up stats to know that Halladay always will have my money on him.

Zach Greinke (Kansas City Royals) - Finally, the player I really really don't want to include. He's the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and had an astonishing ERA last year of 2.16! With a record of 16-8 he's very very hard to ignore. If he doesn't come out playing like last year I can see me subbing him out of this strategy, but he's earned his place on the back of a cracking season in 2009.


I have a record kept in a spreadsheet. I'll post up prices and results next week when the season gets under way. Hopefully by being disciplined and tracking this I can make a bit more than last year. All prices will be PP. If my pitchers are pitching against each other I won't bet. If 3 or more pitch on the same night I will still do doubles between them.