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I've a feeling these are just cheap ass crap drones designed to wear out Russian AA to make way for bigger booms.
Did any of them hit something worthwhile? Didn't see anything on the news about Moscow suffering an attack
I can believe it. Trump genuinely doesn't give a ****. He just wants to moan about both sides and they pressure them into a peace deal to take the credit.
I still can’t get over that Putin lies to Trump about Ukraine’s drone attack on his residence.
Trump announces it to the world like a fool who believes his master.
Then Trump states Putin was probably lying to me.
And that’s it??? We move on.
Imagine it was Zelensky who lied to him and made a show of him on the world stage.
Did it ever occur to him that maybe Putin has been lying about everything else all along??
What a dumb piece of **** he really is.
Well, his modus operandi is, 'try and stop me.' He does things, there's a hue and a cry, and eventually some of them kind of get undone, usually by the courts.
If he loses the midterms, if the Democrats control 66 votes in the Senate and a majority in the house, he's gone, though Vance gets the gig until he's impeached.
If he loses the midterms but the Democrats get fewer than 60 seats in the Senate, then getting anything done by Congress to reign him in will be difficult if not impossible, so he'll continue with the 'try and stop me' governance he's doing.
So, it really matters not just that he lose the midterms, but he loses, well, bigly especially in the Senate.
I'd say it's unlikely, he'll lose enough that the mischief he gets up to domestically will be curtailed, but foreign policy adventures will go on.
Will he go ahead of them? Would he declare a stste of war and move ahead without approval anyway?
Last of the spec ops flights due in this eve. So if anything is going to happen, it will prob be in the next 72hours.
Can he achieve much if he loses the mid terms? Is he pretty much a lame duck president then in terms of ability to really shape US foreign policy?
I'd say that the theory that Trump is a Russian agent will be confirmed if he takes Greenland by military force - totally un-necessary from a security standpoint. It destroys NATO as a serious organization, chaos within the EU - probable closure of US bases in Europe followed by the stoping of US weapons to EU and by extension to Ukraine. Putin would be delighted. Bonus having the spotlight taken from Russia.
Interesting, according to your map, it is not that far from Greenland. Wouldn't that be something if the US boarded it and brought it to Greenland!
Will they intercept it or not? If they haven't by now and after being asked by Russia not to I suspect they won't. Will any of the Baltic States do it instead if it gets that far though? Changing flag and ship name mid sea. Sure what'd be wrong with that.
Route of Oil Tanker Pursued by US Being Monitored by Irish Authorities
Edit: Just an update on whereabouts it is.
I mean the current administration obviously. It should be put to them at interviews where they're claiming everyone has a price and are stating that they should be able to buy Greenlanders off. By a lot of metrics there's a better standard of living in Greenland than for your average American. Can't say the same for the average Russian in the Magadan Oblast for example.
And alot of Russia's oil infrastructure is falling apart as Trump would say. The US need to go in there and get it up to speed plus ensure the average Russian gets a fair share of the bounty.
They already did, in 1867.
Also, as the US is so interested in Greenland I wonder has anyone suggested buying parts of Eastern Russia instead for their "security"? They should be able to pick up at a cheaper cost.
Good analysis indeed.
Of those 4 scenarios, none of them will happen today or tomorrow but over the longer term one of them must occur.
I suppose an extension of the 1st scenario (running low on meat for the grinder) likely means Russia still make sporadic attacks to gain ground, but with much lower numbers and intensity. Both countries keep firing drones and missiles at each other.
Hopefully over time European support for Ukraine increases, and potentially US support also increases post-Trump.
For Russia, it's hard to see things improving any time soon. I agree with you that 2025 was the peak time for them to get the favourable outcome.
I think that's a v good analysis. It's clear the Russian demographics were already bad before this war. Now add in the casualties they've taken and it's clear it's made a bad situation so much worse.
If Ukraine can keep the army in the field,supplied with enough equipment and man power to hold the line and keep racking up the Russian casualties its my belief that Russia cracks from internal dissent and their economy imploding.
Strikes like this only speed up this process
Backs up the comment by one of the Ukrainian defence forces recently that they're exceeding the replacement rate in casualties.
As they approach 1.5 million casualties it's probably worth revisiting their demographics. With a population of around 140m estimates of what they have to serve in the military were around 15-18 million according to this article from 2023 -
Russia’s abysmal demographics data, Its population has decreased by 1 million between 2020 and 2023, births fall on early 19th century levels | by Chris Snow | Medium. And that's when you use a broad age range of over 40 and up to 55.
You need maybe 8-15 workers (so say 10) working in the economy for every 1 soldier. So basically 10 workers for every kitted soldier.
Ukrainian Intelligence estimates 620,000 Russian troops in and bordering Ukraine. That's what Russia needs as a minimum to keep the current near stalemate situation. Simplistically, it needs a workforce of 6.2 million (just for the Ukrainian deployment) out of a total workforce of 82 million. Putin has room to mobilise more for sure but he's pulling more and more from the working population and things are clearly not going well on the economic front. Hence scenes of Indian migrants descending on Moscow.
Scenarios that might bring Russia to the peace talks -
Putin is playing a waiting game but with the European funding secured and while noting Ukraine's own manpower issues who does waiting suit best? Putin must also be aware that US midterms this year might help temper Trump somewhat. It could turn out that 2025 was the peak time for the best possible Russian outcome (which most still wouldn't have called a win).
That's alot of dead and wounded Russians
Seems they were probing the territory for a couple of days, then got serious last night. Targets hit north, south and east of Moscow, and a raid on distant Bashkortostan for good measure.
Good analysis here on the next wave of Ukrainian defensive lines. I'm looking forward to seeing how they'll perform. Hopefully we'll never get to see the ones further back. The weak point is going to be the very South East where they took Hulipole. If that vector can hold I'd be pretty confident. I want to see Russian convoy's get smashed crossing those wide tank trenches.
Edit:
It'd be useful if I actually posted the **** thing.
Are these drones purposely loitering around the Moscow airspace to disrupt flights and use up Russian AD missiles or are they heading directly at targets and doing the above anyway?
Hmmm …
Ukranian drones scooting around the Moscow suburbs, seriously disrupting flights to the capital in the three days running up to the Russian orthodox Christmas. Purely coincidental?
It's almost like Ukraine are hinting to the Muscovites that there's something going on in a distant part of Russky Mir that does affect their lives too.
Efforts by the armed forces of Ukraine to disarm putin's terrorists continue:
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-missile-factory-in-flames-after-ukrainian-drone-attack-media-report/
Lovely :)
My suspicion is that they're going to use some fictitious threat to Pituffik Space Force Base, formerly Thule Air Base, as a pretext for a strike. Staging out of the UK would make sense insofar as it would allow an approach to the base well outside of radar-controlled airspace once you leave the UK behind.
How any US strike force would fare in the Arctic winter is another matter entirely. Not only is the weather going to be absolutely brutal, but unlike the staff at Thule, any strike force would quickly realise that they're not the apex predator anymore:
Upps wrong thread, should be Venezuela
I doubt fully stage, but support, why not? At that point their involvement in NATO is done, and Iceland will be in the situation of having to choose whether to allow movements willingly, or not (which would require external support).
Similar to how Columbia staged aircraft used in the Venezuela ops.
Anyway's, digression, back to topic.
Pinky and the brainless are running the show now.
My grasp of geography is sufficient that I am aware they wouldn't be staging from the UK, it was just an aside. The US is hardly going to stage an invasion of Greenland from Iceland.
If the US want to go to Greenland, It would be easier for them to stage from their existing bases in Alaska, Greenland and Iceland.
As for the build up in the UK. Most people have concluded it most likely to do with the Bella 1 / Marinera and a potential boarding.
