Replacing previous thread which has continuing page count issues.
Previous Thread
Previous Original Thread:
Threabanned posters:
brickstser69
slay55
mulbot
Maybe but does Putin have something on Trump? We'll see how it plays out soon enough.
There was an excellent article in the Telegraph a couple of days ago which predicted that Trump would soon have a big bust up with Putin. The writer felt that Putin was seriously underestimating Trump, and not taking into account his short temper or that he doesn't like being made a fool of by anyone and definitely not being humiliated.
Someone who lies and never stickes to their words.
Same as himself, then. Any such realisation is more than likely to reaffirm Trump's opinion that Putin is a great lad, someone he could always get on with no matter what the rest of the world tells him.
I think I hope that Trump now is finally starting to see the type of person that Putin is. Someone who lies and never stickes to their words. Hopefully then Trump and America will get fully behind Ukraine again.
Some good news coming out of the front
Been a slow grind, but they've been making steady progress in pushing Russia back from positions that's cost them thousands of lives to take.
Those points are not without merit, but from my perspective, it's not as clear cut. I've written a more extensive reply in the China vs. Taiwan thread:
https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058293812/china-v-taiwan-the-next-big-conflict/p8
I suppose my knowledge is limited, but what you say jives with what I've read and heard.
My point would be that the US/Japan/Taiwan have not much in their arsenal to beat the Chinese, should they choose to invade. They can definitely make things difficult, but I don't believe they can bring sufficient force to ultimately defeat the Chinese.
There is one carrier in Japan (USS Ronald Reagan or the USS George Washington) which could get to Taiwan in a day and a half, but it would take well over a week for any West Coast US carriers to get there.
We can blame whichever geologist put the word "rare" into rare earths.
I mean, rarer than Iron or Aluminium but pretty much next tier down probably, but it wouldn't have the same ring to it.
They didn't know that dolts like trump (or unfortunately some users posting about it) would attach so much weight to the word "rare".
This might indeed be a better discussion for a dedicated thread, but I’m honestly not so sure. For starters, the Taiwan Strait is pretty wide, between 130 and 160 kilometres, which is quite a bit of distance to cover with landing craft or landing ships, giving Taiwan some advance warning that an invasion might be coming. And that’s not counting any early warning from Kinmen and the Matsu islands that sit only a few kilometres off the coast of mainland China but that are controlled by Taiwan. These would likely be the first targets of any PRC attack.
At the same time, China won’t be able to bring their numerical superiority to the table. They still need to keep sizeable troop formations in Xinjiang, Tibet, Yunnan and Guangxi, not to mention in Manchuria to keep an eye on both North Korea and Russia. That doesn’t take into consideration the limitations imposed by the available amphibious transport and shipping capability. Sure, those new landing barges are impressive, and the PRC has massively invested in its amphibious warfare capabilities, but there’s only a certain number of these assets available, which will reduce the maximum number of troops and equipment that can be landed.
Then, there’s the geography of Taiwan itself. The only real place for any amphibious landing is along the western coast, where some moderately wide coastal plains allow for the setting up of beachheads without immediately being pummelled by artillery from any surrounding high ground. However, those plains only cover about a quarter of the island. The rest is made up of rugged mountains that are a defender’s dream.
If I were a betting man, I’d wager a whole lot of money that Taiwan’s defence plans call for a fighting retreat from the western coastal plains into those mountains which would be turned into a veritable fortress. So long as they can hold a line from between Taipei and Taoyuan along the mountains down to Kaohsiung, Taiwan would still be in possession of a number of airfields, ports and wide beaches along the eastern coast that would be available for resupply and reinforcements. I see that as pretty likely, we’ve seen in Ukraine just how hard it is to attack and take defended positions even with the relatively benign geography of that country. The mountains of Taiwan are anything but benign.
With regard to home turf, Taiwan might be Chinese, but it certainly won’t be home turf for the PRC. Apart from the distance, the ROC has really managed to solidify its stance on the island since the end of the Chinese Civil War. Whilst some of the population might be more inclined to view a rapprochement with Beijing as positive, you can bet that any such positive mindsets will go out the window once the first landing craft hit the beaches. There might be the odd Taiwanese Quisling, Wallace, or Daly but on the whole, the PRC would find itself operating in a hostile countryside, with all the challenges that brings. And they’d be operating in a hostile countryside that speaks their language.
I’d expect any invasion to essentially freeze along those lines, with the PRC getting tenuous control over the Taiwan Strait and a beachhead on the Western coast of Taiwan, with the ROC holding the mountains and the east coast, whilst the US, with Japanese help, would attempt to bottle up the Luzon Strait south of Taiwan as well as securing the Ryukyu islands to the north in order to keep the seaborne supply lines to Taiwan’s east coast open.
I dont think the majority of Russians, the military nor the elite think that either Putin is a madman, the war is lost or that peace is the most desireable outcome.
So I dont think the two situations are comparable. It woulf be more similar to if the Russians assassinated Hitler at the peak of Operation Barbarossa, which would lead his successor to pursue the war with renewed vigour
The only way i think America can help Taiwan is with putting 2 or 3 divisions of US marines on the island now and have them stationed there and state that if there attacked by any nation America is at war with them. Better off if the troops are already there and not trying to land them during a war situation.
Thats a pity.
Putin is in power for 25 years. He's built up a whole system of him being Russia and him only. If there's any criticism of him then they fall out of windows or are frozen to death in a prison courtyard. He has built all this up to keep himself in power. Everyone else is at fault for everything in Russia when he has that power. Babushkas make online rants about facilities but never blame him. He's getting party members that criticised him 10 years ago now put in prison.
You take Putin out now that they are so institutionalised to Putin and make him disappear and it'll be years of looking at each other as to what they do now for those in Russia.
What I find amazing is that the biggest loser from the Chips Act is actually Taiwan. Getting TSCM to set up production in the US is essentially reducing the defense of the ROC.
The ROC know that the US was never trustworthy since it switched to recognising the PRC at the UN.
I know it's off topic, but I don't think Taiwan stands a chance if China invades, no matter what the US will do.
The US has a terrible track record of foreign wars, and they will essentially be fighting the Chinese on home turf.
The rare earth angle was always tenuous. The US already has rare earth mines but it still has to send the material to China for refining, even while sanctioning Chinese chip makers. It's all just show for domestic politics.
”Ukraine Doesn’t Actually Have Minable Rare Earths
To begin with, the contentious 28 February Oval Office meeting can’t be understood without a crucial piece of context: there are no deposits of rare-earth ore in Ukraine known to be minable in an economically viable way. And that would be true even if full-scale warfare were not raging in the country’s east, where a great deal of its mineral resources are concentrated.
Ukraine is believed to have four areas with substantial deposits of rare earth ores, according to Erik Jonsson, senior geologist with the Geological Survey of Sweden. “There are four slightly bigger deposits: Yastrubetske, Novopoltavske, Azovske, and Mazurivske. All but one of them seem to be now within or near the zone that the Russians control, as far as I can tell,” says Jonsson. “And when it comes to resources in those deposits, I mean, we have numbers; yes, that’s nice. But we have no real, detailed, outline of how those numbers were arrived at.” The numbers are believed to come from Soviet surveys dating as far back as the 1960s.
“The rare-earth deposits don’t look that relevant,” Jonsson concludes”
It's worth a shot anyway
If Hitler had not survived Valkyrie the army would have sought peace terms. I think the elite in Russia would see that Putin was a loon and in their own self interest try to bring Russia back in from the cold… they do love their Mediterranean villas.
Those guys got reassigned to root for Trump in Trump thread and stir up 💩 in Gaza and Immigration threads
Whatever causes division
If Putin is killed, it will most likely create a dynamic where the putative next leaders will all try to be the next putin and to continue his legacy.
The only way there could be meaningful change in Russia is if the reasons behind Putins control over the country are changed. The man himself being killed will not produce a change in policy.
There is one benefit to them - we get a break from the "I just want peace" without any explanation type posts, and people who correctly state that peace is not achieveable at present given the incompatible demands of each side cannot be dismissed as warmongers etc.
Article 5 is dead and the US has left NATO:
A secret strategy paper from the US Department of Defense sets new priorities for the military. It states that Taiwan is more important than Europe. In the event of a Russian advance, the allies could not rely on the US.In an internal document on the US military's handling of international crises, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth instructed his department to intervene only very limitedly in Europe. The Washington Post reports this, citing the document "Interim Guidance for the National Defense Strategy" obtained by the department.The document states that it is "unlikely" that the US would provide significant military support in Europe if Russia were to advance militarily, according to the report. It sets priorities for senior Pentagon officials. It is unclear whether US President Donald Trump, as Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, would follow this guideline in an emergency. According to Article 5 of the NATO treaties, the United States must defend an alliance member in the event of an attack. Trump would have to order this.
A secret strategy paper from the US Department of Defense sets new priorities for the military. It states that Taiwan is more important than Europe. In the event of a Russian advance, the allies could not rely on the US.
In an internal document on the US military's handling of international crises, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth instructed his department to intervene only very limitedly in Europe. The Washington Post reports this, citing the document "Interim Guidance for the National Defense Strategy" obtained by the department.
The document states that it is "unlikely" that the US would provide significant military support in Europe if Russia were to advance militarily, according to the report. It sets priorities for senior Pentagon officials. It is unclear whether US President Donald Trump, as Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, would follow this guideline in an emergency. According to Article 5 of the NATO treaties, the United States must defend an alliance member in the event of an attack. Trump would have to order this.
https://www-n--tv-de
Europe could clean the Orcs clock without the US, though more troops need to be trained and retained.
If you look at the video in the link I posted, it's just some drama involving the engine compartment, it doesn't look anything like an assassination attempt unless it was only intended to stop the vehicle.
My guess is it was a mechanical failure. As far as I can see, apart from the bonnet, there is no bent metal.
Might even be a false flag.
last minute change as per thatcher. high value targets may know to randomize their schedule to dodge attempts.
or in cases like putin or thatcher are guarded by baphomet and alaister crowleys ghost.
I see news agency's are reporting this now, but nothing on TV, if its correct surely the people involved would have known the right limo to target as its a one try or die plan ,anyone else hearing anything?
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/germany-warns-russia-may-be-preparing-attack-on-nato/
… "by the end of the decade"
So America wants Ukraine to hand over all publicly owned assets and mineral deposits. To agree that they owe America the inflated value of the aid sent from the previous government, with interest. And for all that they get zero, zilch, nada, guarantees of any future aid in return.
This must be some strategy to force the Ukrainians to do a deal with the Russians. The terms of this could be argued as being worse.
I was thinking thatcher at the Brighton hotel.
Anyway it will change how he thinks. Impossible not to be changed by a viable attempt. How it will change him is anyones guess. Increased paranoia is probable.
Sounds like Zelensky knew something is brewing
it raises a conundrum for Putin if one of his duplicates ever die especially publicly on camera
Does he go on TV and say “don’t worry comrades that was just my double, I’m Spartacus” which would undermine his power and raise awkward questions about which Putin is real
Could also be that someone from within Russia wants to take him out which itself is food for thought
