I think it will be FF/FG again with god knows who. Hopefully a left wing party
It will be November 15th
A sensible decision. This has been redundant for at least 15 years.
where are you getting the data that most cannot afford a home as I would like to read that?
CSO stats can give an estimation really of who can and cannot afford a home. Although you'll be left with crude figures, they won't be that wide off the mark
AHBs and councils will continue to buy or rent new builds, as long as they are not building their own stock; which they are not.
If HTB didnt exist, AHBs and councils would be buying even more stock, since there would be no govt HTB targets.
I think we both agree the HTB scheme can lead to a small price increase, but imo, the small increase is worth it if it allows thousands of buyers to purchase property each year, buyers whom otherwise would simply not be able to own a home.
AHBs have far deeper pockets than any FTBers - they are not being outbid by those using HTB scheme.
Irish property market is a zero sum game - for every person who bought a house using HTB there is another who got outbid who didn't avail of HTB.
It is a demand led measure in a supply constrained market and no good can ever come of such a scheme. It is guaranteed to increase prices
For anyone interested, RTE have done mini podcast style profiles of the 43 constituencies.
I've listened to a few, nothing overly insightful, probably a little bit early for that, but interesting none the less.
Gotta love their website setup.
I wonder with FG highest in the polls how will that work out when voters get the ballot and don’t recognise any of the FG candidates with all exodus of their ministers?
Latest Sindo poll, pretty much as you were
Fine Gael 26 (-), Fianna Fáil 20 (+1), Sinn Féin 18 (-1), Social Democrats 6 (-), Labour Party 4 (-1), Aontú 3 (-1), Green Party 4 (-), Solidarity-PBP 2 (-) Independents/Other 16 (-).
Its annoying they don't have Independent Ireland as a stand alone party. Unless they are polling at less than 2% but I find that hard to believe?
HTB probably does increase prices somewhat but nobody knows by how much. There are significant benefits from it apart from helping the purchase of 500 units per week (it appears). Interesting that those who mock the market and market forces can identify the effects of the market so clearly in this one instance. Effectively it MAY be offering subsidies/certainties to house builders when developments may be only marginally profitable.
Pity they can't see the equivalent happening in the rental market. That is that all help to tenants pushes up prices in that market and ensures potential tenants cannot so easily get on the rental ladder.
500 a week x 52 weeks = 26000 annual sales using HTB
There isn't a hope in hell that is the case. There aren't even that many FTBxNew build sales per year
Ffg are left wing... nobody worth voting for from my perspective unfortunately...
FFG Coalition, with the greens suffering heavy losses.
Here is some possible info:
https://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2024/10/decline-in-ftb-purchases-of-existing.html
Credit to Seamus Coffey, UCC.
FTB are doing 17,500 transactions, of which new houses are about 5,500.
I was just repeating what the Govt were saying regularly enough in the media. Your figures make sense; probably what those guys were saying was 500 people were going into houses with HTB assistance EACH week. That's very different from saying 500 units were newly occupied each week. I acknowledge your correction.
I would think it's just a bare faced lie from government, or a tiny snapshot of an outlier of a week rather than an annual average.
From geuzes post above, FTB buying new builds is 5500 per year, assuming all of them were using HTB and an average of 4 person per household (way above actual average), still only comes to 22000, 3k short of the govts 500 per week stat.
It's an impossible stat
How many of the HTB purchasers do you think would have been able to buy a home without the scheme?
A non HTB using FTB could purchase instead no doubt.
It literally is a zero sum game - either a FTB with HTB purchases, or a FTB without HTB purchases. The only difference in these scenarios is price: with HTB available we now have more potential buyers than before, supply has not changed, ergo prices must rise.
so who’s had canvassers around already?
I’ve had two sets so far
Not all HTB purchasers would have been able to buy a home without the scheme.
If the scheme is abolished, there are simply less new home owners, as not all homes purchased via HTB would have been purchased by FTBs.
You would see investors, councils and AHBs purchasing them, meaning fewer homes would be sold to people that want to live in the home.
There are far more would be FTBs in the market right now than houses to buy. Many of those are being priced out in bidding wars, not by AHBs or councils, but by other FTBs.
If those availing of HTB were removed from the market, market prices of homes would drop slightly, enabling other buyers to get in.
AHBs and councils do not buy houses in bidding wars against other private FTBs. It does not work that way.
You fundamentally misunderstand how they procure new build housing.
Councils often buy up additional stock in new developments, on top of the part v allocation.
They also purchase from private sellers.
I would like to see the evidence that FTBs would have purchased 100% of HTB purchased homes.
The aim is to increase the number of homes for sale, not remain static with our output.
Even if FTBs could swallow all the new housing demand, we know there is additional demand from the HTB market.
If we cut that demand off, we ultimatley reduce the numbers of first time buyers, especially when housing output increases.
Councils do not get into bidding wars for new build homes. They engage with developers early to block buy a certain number of units on top of Part V obligations, and sometimes they will buy units at end of a phase if demand isn't there (v rare that this happens - only happens for overpriced schemes which HTB would not qualify for)
For housing schemes with significant private demand councils will not be bidding in open market against other FTBers - they simply do not do this. Neither do AHBs.
Your understanding of how the housing market works in this country is wrong
I’ve had Fiona O’Loughlin at the door. On TWIP, it was mentioned that Patricia Ryan was standing as an independent- hopefully she won’t get in. Reflecting on her & Stanley’s desertion from the SF, I’d say the shinners along with the greens are in for a rude awakening at the next GE.
I'm sure you could find independents or other smaller parties that are right wing. If people want the main parties to change policies they have to show their preference at the ballot box.
shinners along with the greens are in for a rude awakening at the next GE.
Not sure how literally you mean 'rude awakening', but I'd imagine both parties are already well aware this is going to be a difficult election for them…
Rude awakening is a figure of speech. I mean their standing faces a torrid time in the upcoming GE.
Councils and AHBs do purchase properties outside of new builds, it is your understanding that is wrong if you dont acknowledge that point.
A home owner can sell (or rent out) a second hand home directly to the council or an AHB.
