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Russia-Ukraine War

Ten of Swords

Please use this thread to continue discussing the war in Ukraine.

All mod instructions from the previous thread remain in force here

Original thread:

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058195983/russia-threadbanned-users-in-op

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thatsdaft

The Times apparently thinks Zelenskys plan is to push Putin to come to negotiating table

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1838165979139826139

RGARDINR

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122645177#Comment_122645177

I just don't know how point 1 would work if Russia is still in Ukraine. Is this for when hostilities stop and Ukraine have 100% back their land from Russia? Other points I definitely think should happen straight away just not sure when point 1 could unless Russia are 100% out of Ukraine.

keeponhurling

victory plan :

Remove restrictions on weapons
Release the $300-odd billion to Ukraine. Consider it reparations in advance.
Enhance air defenses, including NATO shooting down missiles and drones in Western Ukraine
Wherever possible, enhance primary and secondary sanctions
Allow Ukraine (or israel) to strike weapons factories in Iran
Communicate to China that they need to play their part to end the war, or North Korea becomes a legitimate target and war spreads to their doorstep, and the refugees that go with that

Job done ✅

Paddigol

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122645035#Comment_122645035

It's phenomenal actually. The Russian military has been comprehensively out-though and out-fought by their Ukrainian counterparts. It's hard to imagine any other world 'power' being as humiliated as the Russians have been. They had everything going for them - surprise, massive weight of numbers, battle starting according to their prepared and rehearsed plans, air superiority, navy superiority… and yet there they are, reduced to throwing conscripts and convicts into WW1 style meat wave assaults and lobbing dumb artillery at Ukrainian towns, villages and defensive lines.

I hope Ukraine is given what it needs in order to drop kick the Russians back over the border and do the world a favour by surely leading to the demise of Uncle Vlad.

Dubh Geannain

Japan fired flares to warn airspace violating Russian aircraft.

Japan says Russian patrol aircraft violated its airspace | Reuters

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122644178#Comment_122644178

Hold up, hold up, hold up…

Did I see that right that they’re using a liquid-fuelled first stage on their supposed wonder weapon? That’s a major step backwards, as well as a major vulnerability, just look at the Titan-II explosion in Damascus. There’s a reason the US phased out their last liquid-fuelled ICBMs in the 1980s. Even if the Sarmat does not use the same tank construction as the Titan-II, which contributed to the Damascus incident, liquid fuels do not lend themselves to having fuelled up rockets in the silo over extended periods of time. Not to mention that the time needed to fuel the missile before launch makes it extremely vulnerable to first strikes…

thatsdaft

So much for the “Russia has endless manpower” meme

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1837678919644074348

“Russia is struggling to meet manpower demands”

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122646174#Comment_122646174

Oh it’s not just them, you see using liquid fuel has advantages of you are a corrupt regime where maintainers can sell on the fuel and replace it with water

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-corruption-rocket-force-water-fuel-xi-jinping-purge-scandal-2024-1?op=1

flutered

sorry i am unable to make a link for this, as it is long it is up to date, a map will help

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attempted an assault near Vovchansk. Enemy aircraft also struck residential areas in Kharkiv with guided bombs (KAB), causing civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure.

In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the invaders launched seven attacks. Ukrainian defense forces repelled assaults near Synkivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhlyakivka, Kotlyarivka, Stelmakhivka, and Lozova. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 28 times, attempting to break through the defense near Druzhelyubivka, Cherneshchyna, Hrekivka, Nevske, Torske, Terny, Makiivka, Novosadove, and Bilohorivka. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled an assault near Vyimka. On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers launched 11 attacks in the areas of Kalynivka, Mayske, Andriivka, and Bila Hora. On the Toretsk direction, with air support, the enemy carried out 12 attacks near Nelipivka, Toretsk, and Shcherbynivka.

In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 28 enemy attacks near Vozdvyzhenka, Novotoretsk, Krasnyi Yar, Novohrodivka, Selydove, Marynivka, and Mykhailivka. The highest concentration of enemy attacks was near Selydove. On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 25 attacks, with the heaviest fighting near Heorhiivka. Additionally, the enemy attacked towards Tsukuryne, Hirnyk, Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, and Zhelanne Druhe. On the Vremivka direction the enemy conducted nine assaults near Vuhledar, Katerynivka, Vodyane, and Pavlivka, using bomber aircraft heavily. On the Hulyaipole direction, Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Hulyaipole. On the Orikhiv direction, the occupiers attempted 4 assaults on Ukrainian positions near Robotyne, Novoandriivka, and Novodanylivka.

Operations continue in Kursk Oblast, where enemy aircraft continue to level their own villages and towns. Over the past day, Russian planes conducted 26 airstrikes dropping 33 guided bombs (KAB) on their own territory.

On the Volyn and Polissya directions, no signs of enemy assault group formation have been detected.

Along the border with Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, the enemy actively uses artillery and aircraft from Russian territory to strike Ukrainian towns and villages.

General conclusion:

On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian infantry primarily attacks using buggies, motorcycles, and all-terrain vehicles due to significant losses in military equipment.
Russian forces have halted frontal assaults on Ukrainian positions in eastern Ukraine and are now focused on encircling Ukrainian positions to seize territory, particularly near Hirnyk and Selydove.
On the Kurakhove direction, the enemy launched two large-scale assaults near Maksymilianivka and Hostre, each time deploying up to a reinforced battalion, which is unusual compared to typical combat actions. This heavy concentration of forces highlights how critical success in this area is for the enemy.
Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted drone strikes on the 23rd GRAU Arsenal of the Russian Ministry of Defense in Tver Oblast, on the 719th ammunition storage base in Tikhoretsk, Krasnodar Krai, and on the long-range aviation base in Shaykovka, Kaluga Oblast. Additionally, the "Podlet-1K" air defense radar, which was responsible for detecting low-flying targets near Tikhoretsk, was hit.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

There were 163 combat engagements on various fronts.
On the Kursk Direction, "Siversk" OTG continued offensive actions south of Glushkovo, near Novyi Put, Medvezhie, on the western outskirts of Liubimovka, and towards Kamyshovka.
The enemy's 83rd Separate Air Assault Brigade advanced south of Kamyshovka, while the 51st Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division counterattacked near Liubimovka and near Kremyanoe. Units of the 106th Airborne Division fight southeast of Snagost near Nikolaevo-Daryino, while the 234th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Air Assault Division is transitioning to defense in the Nizhnii Mordok area.
The command of the counterterrorist operation in Kursk Oblast begun forming a defensive line along the E38 highway on the Rylsk– Lukashevka section. Units transitioning to defense on this line include the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 5th Army (Rylsk), the 459th Motorized Rifle Regiment (Selektsionnyi), the 83rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (Lgov), the 217th Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division (Klishino), the 87th Motorized Rifle Regiment (named after K. Liebknecht), and the 252nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division (Lukashevka). Units of the 98th Airborne Division, arriving from the Kramatorsk direction, are concentrating in the Akimovka–Markovo–Sukhaya area. On the Ulanok–Borki–state border line, paramilitary formations "Arbat," "Sarmat," the 1428th Motorized Rifle Regiment, the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps, the 24th Separate SOF Brigade, and the 382nd Separate Marines Battalion of the 810th Marine Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet are transitioning to defense.
On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces made slight advances near Lyptsi, Vovchansk, and within the summer home area west of Hlyboke. The enemy is deploying "Akhmat" blocking units.
On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces captured Kyslivka. The enemy attacked near Synkivka, Kruhlyakivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Lozova, and Stelmakhivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian forces are trying to capture Nevske, and fighting continues in northern Makiivka. The enemy attacked near Druzhelyubivka, Cherneshchyna, Novosadove, Zarichne, Hrekivka, and near Torske.
On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces continued their offensive near Vyimka but made no progress.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces attacked near Chasiv Yar, Kalynivka, towards Mayske, near Ivanivske, Andriivka, and Bila Hora.
On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces made slight advances in the center of Toretsk and the center of Leonidivka. They attacked in the areas of Dachne, Toretsk, Nelipivka, and towards Shcherbynivka.
On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced west and southwest of Hrodivka and reached the eastern outskirts of Mykolaivka. They advanced west of Ukrainsk and captured the "Selydivska" mine, continuing their offensive in the areas of Vozdvyzhenka, Novotoretske, Zelene Pole, Krasnyi Yar, Novohrodivka, Sukhyi Yar, Marynivka, Mykhailivka, Selydove, Myrolyubivka, Lisivka, Zhelanne Pershe, Tsukuryne, and Hirnyk.
On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces launched an assault near Maksymilianivka and attempted to break through Ukrainian positions 24 times. The enemy advanced in the eastern part of Hostre. They also attacked near Heorhiivka, Oleksandrivka, and towards Dalnie.
On the Vremivka direction, units of the 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Army advanced northeast of Prechystivka. The enemy attacked Ukrainian Defense Forces' positions near Kostyantynivka with a reinforced battalion.
Russian forces continued offensive actions near Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, Bohoyavlenka, Vuhledar, Novoukrayinka, and Prechystivka.
On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces attacked near Hulyaipole, in the areas of Robotyne, Novoandriivka, Lobkove, and Mala Tokmachka.
In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
- Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
- Mediterranean Sea: 1 ship, 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

The 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th Combined Arms Army, is engaged in combat operations on the Kurakhove direction.
The 40th Separate Marines Brigade of the Pacific Fleet operates near Prechystivka.
An "Alaniya" paramilitary unit from North Ossetia is fighting along the highway toward Orikhiv.

Possible operation situation developments:

The enemy will soon reach the left bank of the Oskil River in the Hlushkivka-Kruhlyakivka sector and split the "Khortytsia" OSG bridgehead on the Oskil River into two parts: a smaller northern (Kupyansk) and a larger southern (Borova) section.
"Tavriya" OSG will not be able to hold the Zhelanne Pershe – Zhelanne Druhe line, as the enemy is already on the western bank of the Vovcha River and is actively advancing along it in a southern direction (Danylivka – Hirnyk). The situation could be salvaged if the "Tavriya" OSG forces reliably hold the Hirnyk – Kurakhivka line, though this remains uncertain.
We should expect enemy attempts to repeat the tactical maneuver they used at the beginning of the assault on Chasiv Yar: concentrating a large grouping of forces in a narrow sector, creating high tactical density in their formations, while deploying reserves dispersed along the entire front. Until then, the enemy will continue its frontal assault towards Pokrovsk from the southeast, advancing along the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk railway in a relatively narrow corridor (up to 5 km wide) between the Solonenka and Zhuravka rivers.
By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
Securing a breakthrough toward Kurakhove remains the primary objective for the enemy's "Yug (South)" Operational Grouping, particularly its 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions of the 8th Combined Arms Army. However, they lack the reserves necessary to achieve this.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 22.09.24

Personnel - almost 642,420 (+1,500);

Tanks 8,768 (+22);

Armored combat vehicles – 17,222 (+52);

Artillery systems – 18,333 (+63);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,195 (+2);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 949 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 25,023 (+57);

Aircraft - 369 (0);

Helicopters – 328 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 15,628 (+67);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,593 (0);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian + general:

On the night of September 22, the enemy launched strikes with two Kh-59/69 guided missiles and released 80 Shahed-type attack UAVs over Ukraine. Air defense forces shot down 71 of the UAVs, and six more were lost due to electronic warfare interference.
On the night of September 22, Russia struck Kharkiv, injuring 21 people. Among them were an 8-year-old child and two 17-year-olds.
On the night of September 22, the enemy attacked Poltava Oblast with UAVs, causing damage to energy infrastructure in one of the districts. As a result of the attack, 56 households and 30 businesses were left without power.
On the night of September 22, Russian forces attacked Khmelnytskyi Oblast. Apartments, the roof of a multi-story building, and vehicles were damaged.
A fire broke out at a mine in Donetsk Oblast due to Russian shelling. At the time of the incident, 371 workers were in the mine, all of whom were evacuated to the surface. After inspecting the buildings, the bodies of two female workers were found. One more injured worker was taken to the hospital.
On September 22, at 11:50 AM, the aggressor state's army attacked Sloviansk. A strike hit a residential property. Rescue workers pulled a woman from the rubble. Two of her neighbors, aged 53 and 54, also sustained injuries and were taken to the hospital.
In the afternoon of September 22, Russian forces shelled Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast. Five people were injured, including a 16-year-old girl in serious condition. Four houses and two cars were damaged.
Since October 2022, the enemy has launched over a thousand strikes on civilian energy infrastructure in Ukraine, according to Deputy Minister of Energy Mykola Kolisnyk.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020. We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

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fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122646174#Comment_122646174

I probably should go and google or something but you often know these kinds of things…did Russia break a treaty building those ICBMs (with 10 MIRVs acc. to the newspaper blurb someone posted earlier)? […though on second thoughts, I believe Russia have left most of these arms treaties over last few years].

I thought there was something about getting rid of MIRVs in nuclear arms limitation treaties the US signed with the Soviets e.g. the US got rid of all its Peace~~maker~~edit: keeper missiles (10 warheads) and I think I have read their Minuteman missiles have 1 warhead in them even though they were built to hold 3.

thomil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122646352#Comment_122646352

As far as I know, MIRVs are only banned for land-based missiles. SLBMs carry MIRVs, in fact it was a pretty big deal when the US managed to get up to 14 MIRVs on the rather compact Trident D5. And yes, you’re right, Russia withdrew from the START-II treaty which contains the MIRV ban in 2002, in response to the US abandoning the ABM treaty.

zv2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122644340#Comment_122644340

FABs are hard to shoot down. No heat signature.

zv2

Murza: “These guys keep meticulous records. When the end comes – and it will – the archives will open, we will find out about Trump and Marine Le Pen and your British guys too.”

Putin regime will collapse without warning, says freed gulag dissident | Vladimir Putin | The Guardian

zv2

It did cross my mind that some RU air force people might be unhappy with their orders-

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1838114287270944856

RoyalCelt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122646523#Comment_122646523

Yes but if Ukraine had enough patriot's the plane's wouldn't get within distance to drop them. They have to go quite high and near the frontline to strike Ukraine.

Jon Doe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122641123#Comment_122641123

To Hell with that! And to Hell with 1991 borders! Gimme some 1919 borders!

Jon Doe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122634428#Comment_122634428

Just keep that tech and crates of gold flowing to NK… xD

Timberrrrrrrr

Now this is some funny shìt

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1838227779755589820?t=FfcU1z7kPlFDazHHElEMoA&s=19

rogber

This really was a sensational hit:

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-strike-russia-missile-depot-destroyed-ammo-attacks-months-experts-2024-9

thatsdaft

War is going really well

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1838478421539557879

https://twitter.com/ChakhoyanAndrew/status/1838234660737872240

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122648308#Comment_122648308

I would be very surprised if that was the correct subtitling of what he was saying.

RoyalCelt

Ukrainian military sources confirm that Russian units managed to enter the first outskirts of Vuhledar after months of intense fighting in this direction. The situation here deteriorated fast.

"There was no major offensive as such, small enemy assault groups managed to penetrate the city, so we can conclude that at the moment there is a grey area. They enter there, cannot gain a foothold, so they either withdraw or die."

Another Ukrainian source suggesting there was a breakthrough on the flanks which will be hard to stop.

IMO it would be a great shame if Russia takes the city this year. If the Ukrainians can push them back this will remain a very costly front for Russia until next summer.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1838486337634160967?t=y-YPwI8XWNH4iCqMaOq75g&s=19

RoyalCelt

https://twitter.com/SU_57R/status/1838460168214057329?t=weic3Fz0fSBVdWg_9JXYvg&s=19

https://twitter.com/Unudurti/status/1838158392256250205?t=VE3SiHDud28eRgzFfvd31Q&s=19

If it falls hopefully they have a back up plan unlike Avdiivka.

astrofool

@Beasty is there any timeline on the thread fixes? I.e. is it worth starting a new thread for russia/Ukraine at this point?

rogber

Obnoxious comment of the day and yet another reason to regret the fact that two assassination attempts failed:

Republican presidential candidate Trump suggested Zelenskyy wanted Harris to win the November election

. “I think Zelenskyy is the greatest salesman in history. Every time he comes into the country, he walks away with 60 billion dollars,” Trump said at a rally in Pennsylvania. “He wants them [the Democrats] to win this election so badly.” Trump said if he wins the election, he would call Putin and Zelenskyy and urge them to reach a deal to end the war.

rogber

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122645266#Comment_122645266

Yes, and even some very pro Ukraine EU politicians are saying Russia will probably "temporarily" hold onto some Ukrainian land as part of any peace deal. Which is a bit nauseating, but at least there is some talk now of maybe trying to end this thing next year:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/world/europe/ukraine-war-goals-russia-czech-president.html

thatsdaft

https://twitter.com/ManiamAkash/status/1838269693393604628

Not many takers to live in Russia and die for Putin

Meanwhile hundreds of thousands try to escape in other direction

RoyalCelt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122648702#Comment_122648702

Last year it was propaganda about white south African settlers moving to Russia.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122648702#Comment_122648702

I'd say the margin of error on that survey is x10 the actual number

gw80

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122648702#Comment_122648702

There an irish guy on YouTube by the name of Stephen mcelligot talking about uping sticks and moving himself and his young kids to Russia for religious reasons, to me he seems a bit the grass is greener and he is not seeing the disadvantages for him and his kids.

But each to their own I suppose, I just hope his kids don't get conscripted into some future or present war when they come of age, I'd be fairly certain that his kids will be sent before any ethnic russians from Moscow or St petersburg.

RGARDINR

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122648669#Comment_122648669

Hopefully Ukraine get it all back in the not to distant future.