Please use this thread to continue discussing the war in Ukraine.
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Original thread:
Hopefully something happens to these on route to Russia.
We're into uncharted territory and this is what scares people.
Western and Russian people have been fed the propaganda of Russia strong for decades and to see Ukraine (a country that Russia depended on for it's military personnel and hardware manufacturing) invade Russia just turns their thoughts upside down.
Ukrainians figured out how the blanket dumb bombing won't work when it's putin attacking Russian infrastructure and towns. He doesn't really want to go there yet as he knows it means he lied to people that he was a good leader. It means he led to these events. Everytime he throws someone out a window means it's getting closer to him following the same fate.
It's one way that it could go for ordinary Russians to get a taste of this war firsthand and perhaps put pressure on their government to end it…
But, if anything, I'd say it's considerably more likely that Putin would use this event as a rallying cry for full mobilisation. From a Russian propagandistic perspective, what could be more rousing than hordes of Ukrainian Nazis looking to destroy the motherland directly?
Though this obviously depends on how much of the Russian population remains who can be mobilised.
Is the Russian army really this sh1t or is there a chance they're holding back in case of NATO getting directly involved?
Nukes were mentioned earlier and it made me think of a youtube video I saw a while back, it was about nuclear weapons/technology in general and the host was talking about the behind the scenes regulations/safety procedures that are required to maintain nuclear arsenals. A bit off topic he said that this is why he thinks Russia's nuclear capabilities are overstated as they are such a basket case and with rampant corruption. I know it's just a youtube channel, but it's the kind of thing that wouldn't surprise me.
If you think about it though, all the Ukrainians need to do is sow chaos and confusion. I don't imagine the long term plan is to annex a slice of Russian land, instead, what we have here is a huge swathe of Russian land that is rapidly getting depopulated by it's inhabitants, either by evacuation or capture of POWs and by the looks of it, the idea is the spread that chaos rather than a targeted attempt to get to the heart of Russia. That would be too easy to counter, but this is destroying logistical routes, altering the prior understood borders of the conflict and surely it's absolutely crippling morale in the Russia areas close to this? Sure if you're on the other side of the country you won't care, but I don't think the average Ivan in Russia is thinking "Oh they invaded us? Now I want to fight back!" as anyone with that spirit likely enlisted already. The ones remaining are far more likely to be thinking "Oh they invaded us? Oh crap, we are in trouble now for kicking a hornets nest"
Who, exactly, is going to stop Ukraine from taking territory in Russia? It's not going to be Russian farmers with pitchforks, and the Rosgvardia won't be much better. If Russia is intent on doing whatever it takes, then that means taking elite troops and elite materials from other parts of the front and recommitting them to this pocket of Russian territory that Ukraine has carved out.
The Russians can't really do maneuver warfare. They did a bit of it at the start of the invasion, with some notorious calamities and have been stuck relying on attrition via numerical advantage ever since. I can only assume that one reason behind Ukraine trying to rapidly expand their area of control is that they want to pull the Russians this way and that, keeping the battlespace open, and fighting the Russians on the run. The Russians had reconfigured themselves for a dug-in war, but this new front has put a bit of a spanner in those works, and Putin doesn't like it.
Are there any reliable reports on damage to civilian infrastructure and civilian casualties in Kursk? It's impossible to imagine there won't be significant cases of both though though very hard to know where reliable info would come from
He makes an interesting point which I also saw on BBC: attacks on Russian soil actually more likely to get Russian population behind the war rather than turn them against it. Just basic human psychology.
Still, Ukraine has nothing to lose at this stage, a morale boost was much needed and at the moment this is certainly providing one. The key thing is not to let their troops become encircled and trapped, but I imagine they have plans to prevent that
What part of it so far looks like a "suicide mission"? Sure, we've seen videos of the UAF in vehicles being targetted with FPV drones … but usually followed up by them leaping out of the targetted vehicle and taking cover in the surrounding countryside. And then they go on to capture disenchanted Russians by the 10s and 100s.
Similarly, we have hours and hours and hours of video footage of dead Russians lying all over the Donbas and other Ukrainian killing fields, but almost nothing showing dead Ukrainians. Sure, that could be a propaganda bias, but chances are it's more to do with the Ukrainians being better soldiers … and better humans.
So as long as they don't over-extend themselves, there's no reason to think that Ukraine can't hold on to these captured areas for months if not years, with little additional cost in terms of lives or money compared to facing the Russians head-on in Vovchansk.
There's going to be some scarcity of toilets
Wonder what price Ukraine is paying for this move because it can't last and Putin will do whatever it takes to get Ukraine out .Should Ukraine do a tactical withdraw and target somewhere else ,I don't know but it looks a suicide mission if they think they can keep making ground inside Russia .Hopefully Ukraine can just keep Russia guessing and taking out a lot of the military boththe army and equipment.
”Ordinary Russians”
Not a bad weeks work
Sounds like Putin is looking for a "off ramp" give him a vertical one.
I suppose it might be down to trust and loyalty, or competence. As is typical in Russia, senior people like Gerasimov are appointed more for their loyalty to Putin rather than for any special competence. In fact too much competence can make you a threat and prevent you getting promoted. Either Putin is becoming frustrated at a loyal Gerasimov's incompetence, or Putin is losing confidence in Gerasimv's loyalty. Or both, or neither, who knows what might be going on in Putin's paranoid mind.
Gerasimov might want to avoid windows
The biggest news here is that command of this “counter terrorism” operation was yanked away from the military and … given to the FSB
Just think about that for a minute, imagine if Mexican army invaded New Mexico and Trump instead of letting Army and Air Force deal with it told the FBI to handle it, insanity
The Geese have sided with the UAF in Kursk.
either way, you'd hate to be one of his lookalikes these days….. as once he goes, their days are probably numbered too…..
Swan Lake must scare the bejesus out of them!!
I assume the longer this goes on the more chance Putin falls out a window ?
Exactly… to use a chess analogy… "check…"
A very good point. This is possibly what Ukraine want, it is something Putin avoided, at least publically and has the potential to destabilise his grip on power.
Not to mention that the Russian commanders' preferred tactic of "bomb the beejayzuz out of them first" is unlikely to be widely supported by the local civilian population.
In many ways, its another example of the really high levels of tactical nous and ability to adapt to conditions by the UAF. It's been obvious since day 2 of Putin's "special military operation" that the Russian forces are a shambles, poorly led, slow to react and hugely reliant on superiority of numbers and artillery… any time those advantages have been reduced they've been spanked by the Ukrainians. But as long as that fight was taking place on Ukrainian soil, the gains for Ukraine were minimal. So this last week has seen them sidestep Putin's choice of battleground to put on a demonstration elsewhere. It's looking more and more like the Ukrainians are planning to simply lead the Russians on a violent, destructive wild goose chase in their own back yard as the Russians struggle to figure out how to hit back effectively at a mobile, efficient, well equipped, lightweight, fast moving, motivated and disciplined fighting force. The Ukrainians just need to keep moving, ensuring a clear line of retreat available at all times, and hobble the Russians as they try to engage in exactly the same way they have been doing in Ukraine.
Their leading Putin's boys on a merry dance, showing just what an emperor with no clothes he is. Bravo.
The only thing he might do is call for full mobilisation. Say we're being invaded and we need to protect the motherland. It's a possibility and just silly as Russia started this war.
Closer to Hitler's not being able to understand the collapse of the German front. Putin's lost his swagger. He must feel very vulnerable right now… from his own side.
A total farce,Goebbels is alive and well it seems.
For an offensive that Russians claimed was stopped, things sure just keeps getting worse
lol Putin doesn’t want to hear numbers
There's still no upside to Putin in using nuclear weapons, so I think it's still very unlikely.
He must be hugely frustrated though, the whole thing has been an epic miscalculation.
And the cost will go up with the frontline expanding into Russia.
The figures don’t look right, vast majority of Russian gas exports were by pipelines to Europe with not much in eastern direction due to distances involved
their LNG was always a small fraction, literally lacking much in way of LNG facilities and only this week a second “shadow” lng ship was acquired by them
Trying to find that German site which keeps up to date gas volumes on all pipelines coming into Europe
Edit; here
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