Please use this thread to continue discussing the war in Ukraine.
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Original thread:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy0ngzg9754o
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-battles-ukrainian-troops-third-day-after-major-incursion-2024-08-08/
Really?
Facts on the ground and all that
That attention seeking slug no bearing on the conflict anymore he was kicked in the arse after the starlink interference debacle
The media won't give it wall to wall coverage because the average joe is board of it. We're 2 and a half years in. People lost interest after Ukraine's counter attack failed to make huge gains. This incursion as big as it is, they would need to take control of a Russian city or NPP to get the masses interested.
For those of us following this daily it's like Christmas come early.
Maybe ,but we will have to see where this goes. That Progozhin bloke went far but does Ukraine want to go very far into Russia (if it could)
I would love this to be completely deadly and devastating (and awakening) but I have no reason to think it could be anything other than a brilliant counter punch .
But I live in hope of "slowly at first ,then suddenly " and let the Russians reap what they have sown.
Actually I wonder is this for Trump's benefit in some part?
Lipetsk airfield. Over 300km from the Ukraine border.
Russia is being invaded. This makes the West nervous, so I don’t think they want to embarrass Russia into doing something even more stupid.
Russia being invaded is huge, but they want to see how it plays out.
Personally I think the following are Ukraines goals.
Up the bleedin’ Ukrainians.
4) If they can hold territory (ideally more thsn Russia has in Ukraine) then they have cards to force Russia to negotiate (or simply leave Ukraine)
Even if Trump wins in November will he ignore the facts (territory) on the ground ?
5)As the Russians let Progozhin through ,will they be equally happy to let the Ukrainians through ?
6)Will other parts of the federation become restless?Will China have cards to play?
7)Will Putin just be a lame duck dictator if he doesn't kick them out of town?
If they maintain the correct shape in their front lines are they outlining a giant middle finger image to sent putin some sort of coded message?
In order to put pressure on Russia, NATO countries don't even need to invade. They just need to obviously and without notification massively increase the amount of troops stationed in Poland, the Baltic States and Finland/Norway. Then when the Russians ask just say that they are doing exercises and that they have no intention of invading.
I suspect because in the end it will turn out not to be as big a deal as some here wish it to be. Bold and daring? Yes. But are a thousand Ukrainian soldiers going to be able to hold onto a large chunk of Russian territory or a nuclear power plant and use it as a bargaining chip? Extremely unlikely. Most informed media, as opposed to random people on twitter, seem to think it's a temporary diversion tactic more than anything else.
the thing is based on any generic military logic would it not fizzle out over weeks a la "Battle of the Bulge" , this seems like a move that would only make sense to a side with overwhelming superiority on the battlefield, if anybody has learned anything from this conflict it is that maneuver warfare is expensive and unsustainable
Large parts of Kharkiv and Kherson were freed in maneuver warfare, what’s unsustainable is pouring men into meatgrinders to eke meters here and there in Donbass at cost of soldier per square meter
Anyways “situation is difficult” 🤣
You were speechless there for a good while.
Sure, it was not meant to be permanent… unless Russia totally collapses.
But, you agree this makes Russia/Putin look very weak? Imagine if Mexico invaded the US and still had a presence there after some days? 😂
Agreed?
Question… where are the nearest known silos?
The Russian army, second best army in Russia.
There are videos on X of dozens of trucks full of Russian bodies in a smoking convoy in Kursk
Scenes not seen since Iraq
Counterattack going well I see…
This means russia, at minimum, has to divert significant troop numbers to its hollow core while also making them look even more impotent on the world stage which will put their other, not Ukraine, held territory under threat.
It also blows up any of their preconditions for peace negotiations heavily in Ukraine's favour.
I know you like to be contrarian here, but do try and see what this means politically and for negotiations into the future.
I don't think it is expected to be held long term but the damage to russia is already done.
Some reporting of up to 500 killed in that strike
As we know the kyiv independent does a daily casualty count on the Russian side.
In the week leading up to this there was a huge uptick in Russian soldiers been killed. Like over 1k per day.
Looking back the signs were there that something was brewing.
Looks like a massive cache of glide bombs were destroyed in the airfield hit.
Also, seen the video of this.
Turning out to be a very expensive incursion for Ukraine as some are saying.
on your last point that at least makes some sense, in some sense yes as in with all the surveillance and chatter and what not, but if it has no staying power it will count for nothing in a few months , wont the "middle finger" have difficulty being resupplied or having time to dig in properly, Im not sure why you need a "Mexico" analogy? it's simple enough to understand on its own terms
The 1000 men sent in are under no illusions about coming back but the damage and benefit will out weigh the loss
It's not me that's saying it. We're already seeing the benefits and they keep on coming.
Wasn't this a Russian convoy that was attacked by Ukraine?
Yep. Might be too early in the day for the old sarcasm detectors. I was referring to the post saying that it's a very expensive exercise for Ukraine. It looks too be turning into a solid investment. The airfield was potentially hit from drones launched from within Kursk.
That's some amount of dead soldiers. In this day and age and with drones and missiles you really have to spread your reinforcements out and not bunch them all together especially if your in your own country and the enemy are miles from you.
Wasn’t discussed yet but the silence from US, Germany etc is deafening
Starting to look like Biden knowing he is on way out have a thumbs up
Also reports of all restrictions on weaponry use in Russia lifted which might explain todays spontaneous combustion of an airfield far behind the lines
and I think that is exactly why Ukraine entered ruSSia. That gives them additional distance to strike more strategic object of nazi scum.
This is great because it calls Russia's bluff. Yes they can get the territory back but are they willing to utterly raze Russian villages to do so? They don’t seem to have any other offensive tactics.
