It's the dramatic thing to say and it is a great distraction from why Europ. Especially Western Europe is near unable to defend itself and largely unwilling to change that.
It is also a distraction from the fact that Ukraine is deliberately short changed by the entire West so as to help bring the war to a conclusion/stalemate.
It's a horrendous mistake by Biden and most of Europe, sometimes de-escalation and an end to a conflict are the wrong thing to do.
Bottom line is that no matter what way you roll the dice, Putin has to be stopped, and the sooner the better. Because he has absolutely no intention of stopping himself.
long copy, but in informative
Celeste Wallander is the Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, and while briefing Congress this week, said that the US does not support Ukraine attacking Russian oil facilities because they are civilian targets. From 2017–2022, she was the CEO of the US-Russia Foundation, a non-profit with offices in Washington and Moscow that works closely with the private sector in Russia and has encouraged Western investment in the terrorist state. She is corrupted by Russian influence, and the idea that she could be placed in such a high position in the administration is cause for worry.
Jake Sullivan, whose resignation (firing) I have called for before, is corrupted by his close relationship with Samuel Charap, a member of the Valdai Club, the Moscow-funded “think tank” that advances Russian interests among intellectuals and scholars abroad through bribery (err… funding). Putin, Lavrov, and other Russian terrorist leaders regularly attend Valdai conferences. Charap was a Fulbright scholar at the Moscow State Institute for International Relations, a school with close ties to Russian intelligence, where students are recruited into the FSB (if they are Russian) or as pro-Russian influencers (if they are foreign). Charap continues to regularly visit the White House, even after publishing such articles as “The US should surrender to Russia now” and “Russia is too powerful to oppose.” I’m just kidding. He’s not so obvious. He did pen an article in Foreign Policy titled “The West’s Weapons Won’t Make Any Difference to Ukraine.”
The UK was the guarantor of security for Belgium before WW1. UK and France together were the guarantors of Polish security before WW2. Two nations you did not want to piss off.
That did not stop Germany from chancing its arm both times. Sure, it lost, but that was little consolation to Belgium and Poland.
Determining your policies on the basis of what a rational government leader should do is not something to rely upon. We have had ample examples over the years of irrational actors. Factoring in capability is just as important as intention. And if we assume that Russian and NATO territories will be inviolable, then that applies regardless of if countries fight in Ukraine or not.
Regardless. So where do we draw the line? OK, let's say Russia after Ukraine leaves NATO alone. Instead it goes for Georgia. Kazakhstan. Pick a country not in NATO. Pick all neighboring countries not in NATO. Is it to our practical benefit, let alone moral standards, to let such a thing happen? Does anyone have a defensive alliance with Taiwan? I mean, why not let China do the same thing we let the Russians do in that case?
I see no outcome where our future economic or military security is better if Russia wins in Ukraine.
I am not saying it's right that we in the west and the US just ignore what Russia and Putin are doing in Ukraine. I have posted many times on this thread in support of sending as much military assistance as possible, I have actually been critical that enough has not been done in this regard.
But I think talk of escalation into NATO countries or suggestion of WW3 is far fetched. I just don't see it happening.
However I agree with your assessment on Georgia and Kazakhstan being at risk in the future.
Trump going to end war in 24 hours if elected. I think people would not want him to, that it would not be a good look if he did.
With what is happening with Iran and Israel at the moment I wonder what will happen regarding Ukraine in the sense of will the attention of the world be cast more to the middle east will the US give more arms to Israel that might have eventually been given to Ukraine, will Iran hold off giving Russia any more arnaments/drones now since they might need them all themselves.
Ukraine: Where's my Iron Dome? Where's my British and US fighter jets?
I doubt Europe will be supplying Israel and the US hasn't really supplied Ukraine with much in the past 4/5 months.
It's not like Israel will be lobbing artillery shells at Iran. The only thing both Ukraine and Israel would need in common would be anti air. But the US/UK and no apparently Jordan shoot down missiles and drones heading to Israel, but Cruise missiles flying into Poland are left untouched. Crazy ****!
Yeah it's madness. There well able to help Israel out by shooting stuff out of the air but not Ukraine. The world is getting more messed up by the day.
Iran escalating with Israel is good and bad. More aid will go to Israel but Iran will sell less to Russia and Israel will probably respond by targeting drone facilities in Iran.
it’s all connected, russia and iran are in league with each other.
It is certainly complicated. Will putins Republican Party continue to sit on their hands ?
The big question though. If Iran Vs Israel escalates and the US get involved defending the Israelis will that signal to China to start the Taiwan invasion. They may never have a better opportunity.
china doesnt have the capacity to invade whatsoever but if they were crazy enough they might fire missiles. if they do that its game over for trade with china and a blockade on them.
I hope so but these days you never know.
It all could have been avoided long ago.
The US has delivered hundreds of billions of dollars for Ukraine.
Why would you think anything hinges on who sits in the Oval Office? No amount of money is going to make much of a difference now.
Funding, munitions and supplies are exactly what will make a difference, in addition to the fighting will of the Ukrainians themselves.
Wars can be won and lost on the back of supply chains. This has been the case of larger previous conflicts, and the Ukraine War is little different. Russia has been throwing at Ukraine; the entirety of a Soviet stockpile built up during the Cold War for a Europe-wide conflict against NATO. It’s decrepit, outclassed often by 90’s tech, but there is plenty of it. This is Russia’s supply chain, which amounts to raiding stockpiles from another era and supplementing it with 2nd World Tech. Ukraine however currently need to rely upon NATO to supply them.
If Congress can get past the neo-facists in the number to reopen funding to Ukraine, the Russian military can be defeated at a discount price compared to the global conflict that NATO was originally arming against. There needs to be steady flow of this for the AFU to advance. If not, they need to focus on defence, which they appear to be doing now.
The Russians very desperately need Trump & the GOP to win in November or the US will most certainly return to funding Ukraine. The Russians do not have the means to continue this war indefinitely, and a funded Ukraine will eventually finish off the Russian military adventure inside thier borders.
US can’t as bill in congress has funding for Israel, Taiwan and Ukraine with vast majority to Ukraine
EU won’t send anything
So no Israel won’t get priority, and yes Iran attack makes it harder for republicans to drag feet
The US has given little to nothing to Ukraine, especially not hundreds of billions of dollars. If they've given even $1b, I'd be surprised. What they have given is billions of dollars to the US for obsolete and end of life equipment that was due for scrappage but was then handed to the Ukraine. They're not nearly as generous as they like to make out.
A slightly strange post. Could you explain why you think that the US was "on the wrong side of history" with regards to the Korean war? A war started by the invasion of the South by the North.
Or is it, as I suspect, that you come to history & politics with a "The USA is bad, therefore…" approach?
Prepare to be surprised:
The Joe Biden administration and the U.S. Congress have directed about $75 billion in assistance to Ukraine, which includes humanitarian, financial, and military support, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German research institute. (This figure does not include all war-related U.S. spending, such as aid to allies.)
https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts
Hundreds of big ones. No. Not that much. In fact, most US finance to Ukraine has been spread about to cover a lot more than weapons. Also, a fair bit of that money goes directly to US weapons industry as all that gear sent to Ukraine has to be paid for. Its not free or anything.
@johnnyskeleton
But Europe will turn cold towards the US as an unreliable defence and trade partner and seek to improve relations with China. US global hegemony will be over, and this will be either a good thing or a bad thing depending on your world view. But, what is not a matter of debate is that the US economy would, in such circumstances shrink significantly. The US would also lack allies in its rivalry with China.
On the China-EU relations point, at the moment just can't see Europe (EU, as a bloc) improving relations with China very much. I expect they will get worse.
IMO this is kind of independent of support the US provides or withholds from Ukraine, and also independent of whatever bad stuff happens in future to the relations between the EU and the US (e.g. dawn of a new Trump era, God forbid).
So you could have an unfortunate situation where the EU is getting more isolated and relations with both of these 2 "superpowers" are worsening, with China (and potentially the US) trying to undermine us, rob us, carve us up into bits in their influence games.
China winks at at what Russia has been doing in Ukraine. They are Russia's main high technology supplier and trade partner now, have been a massive help to them in keeping their economy going under Western sanctions and enabling increases in weapons production.
There is a bloc of Eastern and Baltic states facing a real threat from Russia that are not going to want to be China's friend after all this, esp. if reports/claims by the US are right and they are now poking a toe past the stated "red line" of military aid to Russia (could actually prove to be some more empty US words that sound good with nothing behind it I fear, bold new policy could be on hold because it is a crucial election year).
Nor is Germany I think, who have sunk an awful lot into trying to help Ukraine (while China more and more openly backs Russia to destroy it) and whose industry and EU market is under threat from Chinese export dumping in Europe (mercantilist "dual circulation" policy of the Chinese govt.).
Not to mention industrial espionage and cyberattacks that until recently at least seem to be written off as a kind of acceptable Western corporate cost of doing business with China.
There's a few smaller and (IMO) short sighted + very greedy EU countries (incl. Ireland in that number!…we would sell our granny for some FDI) who are lured by and even encourage CCP investments and who could try and veto future trade sanctions against China at EU level, but I think there will now be a bloc in the EU that is opposed to any closer relationship with China for a long time.
So the veil was lifted just there on CNN via Marco Rubeo
When asked about this €60bn being held up in House of reps .. he said we could have that on the floor tomorrow and pass it FOR ISRAEL, no prob. Then asked about the portion for Ukraine he said yip has no problem funding Ukraine but only if he has a deal on the southern border.
So it appears Israel funding out of this 60bn is unconditional but Ukraine aid is conditional & tied to US southern border.
I thought it was all conditional on the southern border
J D Vance ( REP ) now on CNN with same craic. Basically saying that in order to fund Israel who is a far closer ally and Taiwan and the US itself, they cant afford to fund Ukraine also
Vance - Ukraine is not an ally and doesnt deserve being funded. Tomorrow the money for Israel only should be put tru congress, Israel is way more important to US than Ukraine is
My memory must be failing me because I seem to remember that there was already a compromise bill put on the floor which had aid for Ukraine in it plus measures on the southern border, but Republicans voted against it because Trump ordered them to, not wanting Biden to get credit for solving something Trump wanted to wield as an election issue.
No surprise there.
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