This sounds like the definition of the sunk cost fallacy, or at least potentially.
Ryan is a good player but was literally dropped at the business end of the RWC and his lineout calling has repeatedly been shown up as below the standard required at the elite level. Not to mention being overlooked by the Lions due to his lack of physicality gives an impression of a player who still has room to grow to reach a world class level.
Beirne and Henderson are also fine players at any given time may be the chosen starters over him as they were recently. There's also a number of promising second rows coming through like McCarthy, Edogbo or Ahern who may at some point in the cycle be considered starters.
Given all the doubts nailing colours to the mast for Ryan at this stage would be a poor decision that could lead to an uncomfortable Sam Cane type situation.
POM is 34 and in an attritional position so I'd be very surprised if he wasn't in his last season or two. Given his experience and current status in the team he would make the most sense for captaincy for a season or two after which the natural successor might be a bit clearer.
The guy i was replying to did say he shouldn’t even be in the squad.
I personally would pick Ryan as captain but POM wouldn’t be crazy.
If you’re right about POM vs. NZ, we better find a completely new backrow quickly. He had as much impact on the game as I had.
Don't see many/any are saying to pick for a WC 4 years away, just that picking a captain for a year has more negatives tied to it than positives.
Even the claimed benefits of making POM captain for the short term are extremely nebulous, and even then most of them POM should still be able to do as good or better while not being captain, as Buer noted.
Coombes can jump but never in his life has he played a similar role to POM in any side. That would be a crazy one for one replacement.
Prendergast is the closest in terms of fit, but POM is still a better player by a good bit. Doris would work well there too but doris would be great at 6 or 7 in our system.
Baird is a bit of a confusing one to me. They almost sometimes seem to want to not to play him. For me he’s the most talented guy on that list.
Anyway, if POM is fit i doubt anyone surpasses him in actual performance this year.
Being fair, I would be surprised if POM was brought to SA. We should go all out to win the tour imo, and I think he'll be surpassed by then by lads like Baird, Prendergast, Coombes possibly.
I’ve watched the match three times and he was definitely the best back row.
If we are basing everything on that one game, then doris and vdf have more to worry about it. Of course that would be silly. Like choosing guys based on a world cup 4 years away.
POM in general is a good litmus test for a type of rugby fan who can only see the obvious stuff. Like the people who think Doris is ‘worse’ at 6. He has a less visible role at 6. He has been fantastic when played there.
There is unfortunately absolutely a sizeable population of toxic fans, media, and Patreon 'Analysts' who would completely lose their minds if POM was stripped of the captaincy while still being in the squad, especially if the captaincy was given to a player from another province.
As I've already said, if Farrell is using this to bridge the gap between Sexton and the next RWC captain then POM makes sense.
If Farrell is nominating a captain to take the squad up to and including RWC 2027 then I think POM is out of the running.
POM's contract is up at the end of the 2024 season, he may very well intend this to be his last season playing. I really don't see a problem with him captaining the side for a 6N and a SA tour. Even if he isn't retiring, I don't think anyone, including POM would get their nose out of joint if it was known upfront that he's taking it for that period and then it'll be reassessed for the longer term. But I reckon he'll be retiring at the end of his current contract, so what's the harm?
Hello Peter……go back and look at the tape.
Yea, good call. He probably represents the closest match.
Prendergast is a vital component in the Connacht lineout. He is the closest thing to POM.
i thought POM was one our better players against NZ. He was definitely our best back row. Doris and VdF had games they’d rather forget i’d say.
I don’t know if he would be a good captain, but Ireland doesn’t make decisions based on world cups 4 years away. We try to win the 6 nations every single time. We were barely willing to use 6 nations or autumn internationals for development 1/2 years before world cups. There is no way we would do it 4 years out.
So, if he wants to keep playing international rugby.. he will as long as he is the best right now.
There really isn’t a back row coming up as good in the lineout as POM. Maybe Niall Murray but he’s a lock. Deegan possibly fits that mold. There are guys who are as hyper aggressive at the breakdown but its a hard combination of skills to get in one player.
If it was a must win game tomorrow, POM would be the logical choice for me, but I’d agree with Foxtrol that they’d be kicking the can down the road and creating an unwelcome talking point if they wanted to change captain in a couple of years.
On the other hand we know how much Farrell puts on people as individuals (eg bringing Earls to the World Cup and making big deals of players landmark caps) and POM would be absolutely deserving to lead Ireland into a 6N as captain. Farrell may want to give him that opportunity.
Henderson is an option but his injury record might go against him as does the competition in the second row. I’d probably give it to Ryan in the knowledge he’ll be supported by the likes of Henderson and POM. My only concern is that his performance level seemed to be affected by being captain in the past although injuries no doubt were playing a roll as was the form of the team immediately post Schmidt.
I dont get that idea.
How do you take it from POM after a year unless he is retiring? Either he is playing well enough to be still a starter and you're 'stripping' him of the captaincy or he isn't playing well and the team has had to deal with him being kept as a starter when it isn't deserved due to the title or we're facing the drama of the captain being dropped.
It is a much easier transition for one of the younger players to take on the captaincy now with a clean slate post Sexton than under the likely extremely toxic environment of it being given to them after it being taken away from POM.
On the captaincy thing, I'd expect it to be Ryan. They won't have invested multiple games in him being captain to ditch the plan now.
I can see the logic in making POM captain on a short term basis but I think what you get from him as a leader won't change whether he's captain or not. If we're going to put a new captain in place, I think it's better to do it now and have them fully comfortable with the role as soon as possible.
Maybe it's just me but it would be a good idea to have a temporary captain.
We are replacing Sexton and that's massive leadership to lose. The new captain is going to have a lot of focus if they can step up. Make it O Mahony for a year and then give it to Ryan or Ringrose.
He probably will be. He's simultaneously at an age where performances can drop off relatively quickly but equally his game is not exactly heavily based on fitness and strength.
Still think it would be weird to make him captain. Better to have him there to help whoever the next captain is.
And this is why I think if Farrell goes for a short term Captain that Peter is the obvious choice.
At some stage or another he's captained every team he's played for and he's well respected throughout the squad.
Based on the WC Ryan isn't guaranteed a spot in the team either.
Ireland have just lost 2 of their most experienced players and will lose another couple in the next 12-18 months.
I'd be hugely surprised if POM isn't in the team for the 6N and SA tour; it would be self inflicted damage. Farrell will want those experienced guys there to have a calm word with guys like Crowley on the field. The more of them, the better.
Like it or not, he's going to be a really important player for the next 7 test matches.
I'd be surprised if he's not under serious pressure to make the team come the next 6Ns. Captain will prob be Ryan or Ringrose.
I dont see how any benefits for Ireland having a 'short term' captain outweigh the obvious negatives.
You just end up turning it into an ongoing controversy given his age and the strength we have in the backrow. As soon as his form drops or another player is outperforming him there'll either be a huge thing about the captain being dropped or that he is continuing to be picked due to his captaincy.
Yeah, I'd have no issues with POM as captain for the coming 6Ns and tour of SA. It gives Farrell and co more time to assess options for the right man moving forward.
But he wouldn't be a along term appointment as he won't be in the team in 2027, he will have fierce competition for the 6 Jersey, which is something Sexton, and to an extent Best, didn't have in their respective positions at the time.
I’d make O’Mahony captain for the 2024 6 Nations and the South Africa tests if they feel he would be a guaranteed starter, but for the Autumn Internationals they should move on to a new captain and promote a few new players at the expense of the players coming to the end of their careers.
Rory Best was 37 for the last World Cup. It’’s mental that the lesson wasn’t learned then. To do it a second time was stupid. If they do it again it would be ridiculous.
The "media push" is basically Dennis Leamy said it.
I would be incredibly surprised if he was chosen.
If in 2023/24 Ireland are appointing a captain for the RWC 2027 then POM probably wouldn't be near the shortlist. If they're appointing a captain for the short term then he's an obvious choice.
what is the point of having him in the squad, let alone captain. Give it to someone that will be a key player at the next WC. Let them grow into the role now.
POM is way past it. He couldn’t raise a gallop against NZ.
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