It probably is but Wagner wasn't as much of a threat to Lukashenko when they were in Africa, Syria or even Ukraine. Having them in Belarus? That would surely would be a different story altogether.
I'm just basing this off what I've observed about Lukashenko. He plays the buffoon but he's been quiet skillful at keeping himself in power, his army out of Ukraine and Putin on his side so far. Inviting a private army into his country just seems like a massive and obvious risk to his own position so I'd be surprised if that is how it plays out. Let's see though...
After thought: Also I can't see Putin being too happy to allow Prigozhin to become any stronger than he already was either.
If Russia hasn't got the stuff to push from the east/south, they've not got the stuff to push from the north. You know how people say that Russia has had lots of time to prepare defences in the south? Well, Ukraine has had at least as much time to prepare defences in the north and, unlike Ukraine, Russia does not have access to fast armour to try and breach lines. All they have is the same numbers game that is failing to make any headway. Conclusion: no route to Kyiv, whether the ground is wet or dry.
Maybe that was part of the plan of this whole orchestrated circus and maybe (more importantly) who would come out in against Putin if they thought there was a coup going on.
None did
Prigozhyn AND Putins plan worked and it got the west here wetting all over themselves with joy
Prigozhyn and Putin are enjoying a lovely MINCEMEAT burger as we speak
I remember someone on Twitter saying that if Putin is close to "regular" people then it's probably a double. So basically the Putin that shows up at factories, the Putin that went to the Donbass and the Putin at the May day Parade, sitting amongst the veterans, were probably all doubles.
In contrast if he's on his own talking to the camera in the Kremlin or talking to people at the end of the long table or giving a speech in the big hall with a massive gap between him and the audience then that's likely to be the real Putin.
For example, this was Putin's visit to Mariupol in Match of this year:
And this is from the May Day parade last month:
I think both of them are doubles (not sure if they are the same person or not)
In contrast this was him yesterday, on his own, in the Kremlin
'Only one olsen...'
Belarusians are already not crazy about the war in Ukraine and many aren't big fans of Luka, either. Given that Wagner is a private army of mercenaries, you'd have thought that membership would have been open to Belarusians as it was, given the political and cultural ties to Russia and Belarus, so whoever in Belarus was wont to join, could have already. Prigozhin wouldn't need to base his operations out of Belarus for that to happen.
wellllll... they tried taking Kyiv in February, the ground wasn't actually that cold, they got stuck in chilling mud, etc. etc.
If they attack in summer and the path is firm and dry any push from Belarus like that might not necessarily play out the same as The Battle of Kyiv. Though I warrant NATO has thought about this, along with 10,000 other things, 24/7/365.
Belarus to enter the war on Friday?
Take Kyiv :) yes good plan!! They should be able to take it in 3 days. After all it only took them months on end to get Bakhmut.
Lukashenko has been playing a delicate game since the start of the invasion where he's willing to give support to Putin just so long as he doesn't have to commit his own troops (and thereby weaken his own position within Belarus). I can't see him allowing some lunatic to raise an army, drawing from his own people as he'd be concerned that it would inevitably lead to him being toppled. If that is the actual plan then he won't be long throwing sand in the gears.
Who knows though. There's scant detail right now. All the main players are keeping very quiet. We'll probably learn more in the next few days and weeks. Prigozhin isn't exactly the sort to stay quiet for too long.
A retired British General was saying over the weekend on the Times Podcast that it's an open secret how the Belarussian army are little more than a rabble. Non existent training, archaic equipment & v little will to fight.
Russia has made no serious attempt to attack Ukraine from the north in well over a year. If their military planners thought it was a viable route, they'd be all over it, given how long their forces have been held in the south and east, as well as offering the shortest route to Kyiv. Therefore, I have to think that Russia has looked at the satellite imagery, seen what defensive fortifications have had ample time to build and improve, and concluded that a land invasion via this route would be impossible to try again with what they have. And if that is what the Russian command did decide, then it's safe to assume that the Russian Mad Mike Hoare and his band of merry men would have even worse luck. Fish in a barrel.
How many Putins are there ?
https://youtu.be/b3USrx2eu4E?t=106
Yeah. I doubt very much that Putin will allow Prigozhyn to command anything more than a hot dog stand after this weekends clusterf**k.
He'd be absolutely mad to let him have thousands of trained infantry at his disposal again. Unless theres some really enormous information thats eluded everyone.
It's not, really. Firstly, there doesn't seem to be much appetite among the general Belarusian population to fight for Russia against Ukraine, so recruitment of soldiers would be, to say the least, politically fraught.
Secondly, Belarus's military gear amounts to a fraction of what Russia already has in its arsenal, much of it being soviet hand-me-downs, and it wouldn't need Prigozhin to requisition it, as Putin could effectively order its handover, with Luka begging to keep some as a way of maintaining internal security.
Last, but by no means least, so little of the details of the deal appear to be known that the idea of Prigozhin taking up some kind of command position in Belarus's military or being allowed to leverage it for the benefit of his private army appears wildly speculative at best.
It puts Wagner less than 100km from Kiev incidentally. Don't think that will go un-noticed.
Was he told in no uncertain terms if he continued to Moscow his family will be targeted?
Absolutely but now blood has been spilt in the kremlim ocean ,it's now safe to say that shark's are going to be on the prowl picking off the weakest prey, think about putin has his own personal army protecting him yet a handful of Wagner forces and prigozhin was pretty much able to walk up to the gates of Moscow without opposition.
That's makes things even more dangerous for Moscow,at this stage a big push by the Ukrainians could well end up with 3 days to Moscow
Apparently this isn’t a headache and worry for Ukraine.
Think Luka is about to have an accident??
Move to Belarus and rebuild his Army using Belarusians ,he's going to have access to everything in Belarus now tanks ,IFVs , attack helicopters and aircraft,it's kinda a win win for him when you think about it
..
I agree. Which is why the example of Assad, against whom there was much more hatred in the country, is relevant, and from whom Putin learned a lot: no compromise, instead remorseless brutality.
Lukashenko also seemed finished a few years ago.
The Iranian regime looked in serious trouble last year.
All of them are still in power, their opponents mostly dead or in jail.
Just mentioning those examples here gets you labelled a Putin supporter by one or two morons (see above), whereas it's simply based on watching similar cases unfold elsewhere and recognising that this is not a Hollywood movie and happy endings are not guaranteed.
Putin may fall, or he may still be there in 5 years
Anyone else been depressed all day with the outcome of this?
If it had continued it could have forced much of the Russian army back to Moscow and logistics into Ukraine would have been completely severed.
I guess I'll just have to settle for the multiple aircraft and pilot losses which is genuinely a boost for Ukraine.
Tbf if that was a foreign army Russians would be galvanized. Nobody would be joining Wagner along the way and there would have been far more attacks slowing them down while defenses in Moscow were made.
But yes it's exposed how weak they'd be to a coup while their entire army is getting battered in Ukraine..
But it wasn't Navalny they were cheering, it was Prigozhin, a total psycho. And we're talking what, a few hundred people who came out to cheer? I'm not so sure they were representative of Russians as a whole. It's not like people were jumping to join his troops, which is what you'd expect if he really commanded support.
While taking this with a ship load of salt, did anything actually happen here or just speculation they reached the base?
Remember, this is Russia, other peoples live dont matter
When it came to it he couldn't count on the army or the Russian Guard, the people were cheering for the side that were coming to depose him.
That's a big problem for any dictator.
Those who fear him now have a lot less reason to fear him, those who rely on him can't guarantee that he can deliver for them.
The free to go bit surprises me. And there are, presumably, numerous rapists, murderers, paedos and other violent and traumatized men among them... they're just free to wander back into society and do what they want? Sounds like a recipe for awful things to happen
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