Prigozhin overplayed nothing.
Yesterday was as effective to hearts and minds, as a frontal assault on the Kremlin. Now he's away off to consolidate his position until the next day, with a massive blow struck.
Putin is a dead man walking, politically if not bodily. Yet.
More from the crazy guy. He really is trying to undermine Putin.
I think people want to believe Putin is a dead man walking. I'll believe it when I see it. In any other normal functioning country he would be. However, this is Russia. Anyone that crosses him probably won't last long.
He couid just as easily, and probably more likely, still be in the hotseat in 5/10 years time.
I wonder where Prigozhin actually is now? Where are his family now? Where were they yesterday?
How is he going to get to Belarus? If he flies what's to stop his plane being shot down?
Will he be taking his Wagner troops with him? Where are they all going to be based? What are they going to do for their income?
What's going to happen to Wagner's operations in Africa and other countries? Will Prigozhin we able to travel freely to those countries?
So many questions....
Supposedly any who want to sign up with MoD can do so, others are free to go.
Immunity for all who participated in the "mutiny"
So possibly a dissolution of wagner group but not handing over all those fighters to the MoD. Where they go next is the big question
I don't think "free to go" and "immunity" exist in Putin's Russia.
bizarre
Anybody who avails of the'free to go ' offer will spend the rest of their time looking over their shoulder I would guess .
The free to go bit surprises me. And there are, presumably, numerous rapists, murderers, paedos and other violent and traumatized men among them... they're just free to wander back into society and do what they want? Sounds like a recipe for awful things to happen
When it came to it he couldn't count on the army or the Russian Guard, the people were cheering for the side that were coming to depose him.
That's a big problem for any dictator.
Those who fear him now have a lot less reason to fear him, those who rely on him can't guarantee that he can deliver for them.
Remember, this is Russia, other peoples live dont matter
While taking this with a ship load of salt, did anything actually happen here or just speculation they reached the base?
But it wasn't Navalny they were cheering, it was Prigozhin, a total psycho. And we're talking what, a few hundred people who came out to cheer? I'm not so sure they were representative of Russians as a whole. It's not like people were jumping to join his troops, which is what you'd expect if he really commanded support.
Tbf if that was a foreign army Russians would be galvanized. Nobody would be joining Wagner along the way and there would have been far more attacks slowing them down while defenses in Moscow were made.
But yes it's exposed how weak they'd be to a coup while their entire army is getting battered in Ukraine..
Anyone else been depressed all day with the outcome of this?
If it had continued it could have forced much of the Russian army back to Moscow and logistics into Ukraine would have been completely severed.
I guess I'll just have to settle for the multiple aircraft and pilot losses which is genuinely a boost for Ukraine.
I agree. Which is why the example of Assad, against whom there was much more hatred in the country, is relevant, and from whom Putin learned a lot: no compromise, instead remorseless brutality.
Lukashenko also seemed finished a few years ago.
The Iranian regime looked in serious trouble last year.
All of them are still in power, their opponents mostly dead or in jail.
Just mentioning those examples here gets you labelled a Putin supporter by one or two morons (see above), whereas it's simply based on watching similar cases unfold elsewhere and recognising that this is not a Hollywood movie and happy endings are not guaranteed.
Putin may fall, or he may still be there in 5 years
..
Move to Belarus and rebuild his Army using Belarusians ,he's going to have access to everything in Belarus now tanks ,IFVs , attack helicopters and aircraft,it's kinda a win win for him when you think about it
Think Luka is about to have an accident??
Apparently this isn’t a headache and worry for Ukraine.
Absolutely but now blood has been spilt in the kremlim ocean ,it's now safe to say that shark's are going to be on the prowl picking off the weakest prey, think about putin has his own personal army protecting him yet a handful of Wagner forces and prigozhin was pretty much able to walk up to the gates of Moscow without opposition.
That's makes things even more dangerous for Moscow,at this stage a big push by the Ukrainians could well end up with 3 days to Moscow
Was he told in no uncertain terms if he continued to Moscow his family will be targeted?
It puts Wagner less than 100km from Kiev incidentally. Don't think that will go un-noticed.
It's not, really. Firstly, there doesn't seem to be much appetite among the general Belarusian population to fight for Russia against Ukraine, so recruitment of soldiers would be, to say the least, politically fraught.
Secondly, Belarus's military gear amounts to a fraction of what Russia already has in its arsenal, much of it being soviet hand-me-downs, and it wouldn't need Prigozhin to requisition it, as Putin could effectively order its handover, with Luka begging to keep some as a way of maintaining internal security.
Last, but by no means least, so little of the details of the deal appear to be known that the idea of Prigozhin taking up some kind of command position in Belarus's military or being allowed to leverage it for the benefit of his private army appears wildly speculative at best.
Yeah. I doubt very much that Putin will allow Prigozhyn to command anything more than a hot dog stand after this weekends clusterf**k.
He'd be absolutely mad to let him have thousands of trained infantry at his disposal again. Unless theres some really enormous information thats eluded everyone.
How many Putins are there ?
https://youtu.be/b3USrx2eu4E?t=106
Russia has made no serious attempt to attack Ukraine from the north in well over a year. If their military planners thought it was a viable route, they'd be all over it, given how long their forces have been held in the south and east, as well as offering the shortest route to Kyiv. Therefore, I have to think that Russia has looked at the satellite imagery, seen what defensive fortifications have had ample time to build and improve, and concluded that a land invasion via this route would be impossible to try again with what they have. And if that is what the Russian command did decide, then it's safe to assume that the Russian Mad Mike Hoare and his band of merry men would have even worse luck. Fish in a barrel.
A retired British General was saying over the weekend on the Times Podcast that it's an open secret how the Belarussian army are little more than a rabble. Non existent training, archaic equipment & v little will to fight.
Lukashenko has been playing a delicate game since the start of the invasion where he's willing to give support to Putin just so long as he doesn't have to commit his own troops (and thereby weaken his own position within Belarus). I can't see him allowing some lunatic to raise an army, drawing from his own people as he'd be concerned that it would inevitably lead to him being toppled. If that is the actual plan then he won't be long throwing sand in the gears.
Who knows though. There's scant detail right now. All the main players are keeping very quiet. We'll probably learn more in the next few days and weeks. Prigozhin isn't exactly the sort to stay quiet for too long.
Take Kyiv :) yes good plan!! They should be able to take it in 3 days. After all it only took them months on end to get Bakhmut.
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