And the Euro chart?
Nothing is stopping Russia buying USD or any other currency through backdoor channels. It can effectively convert its own currency ( at record rates) and at the same time manipulate the value for increased competitiveness.
There is constant criticism of China as it manipulates its own currency to accommodate cheap exports
Look at the ECB just yesterday- developing a program to facilitate "infinite " bond buying to bail out the likes of Italy.
Your academic explained to you how the notional value of the rouble skyrocketed in-country, he didn't spoonfeed you the implications of it.
The rouble went up because imports collapsed, and for the middle class Russian, holding dollars may as well have been holding Pokemon cards, becuase they can't transact for anything because of sanctions. Try to pay for a house in London with roubles, you can't. Try to pay in dollars, euro or sterling, you can't. Between that and capital controls, the rouble has been fenced off from the rest of the world. Holders of foreign currency in dollar or euro accounts have been forced into holding roubles.
🤣
And who outside Russia would be arsed buying these roubles with it's zero utility? And to what end? And how are they magically doing so having been cut off from the Swift system? Think about this for a second would you
The only transacting between the developed world and Russia done in roubles is in Russian banks with a limited amount of energy companies, who by political fiat are exchanging freely traded currencies like the euro and dollar at gunpoint.
It's the North Korean won with a ushanka hat on.
The rouble value is backed by the global and especially European requirement for fossil fuels. This won't be changing any time soon.
End
I'll give you a little thought experiment, I drop by your house tommorow with a gearbag full of roubles. What are you going to do with it?
I hope don't have your heart set on a new Playstation or a holiday anywhere but Omsk, because the gearbag full of cash may as well be monopoly money.
It's strongest because the import is over but export is doing mostly fine. There is lot less demand for currencies on MOEX. Trading volumes are about 10% of pre-war period. Also it's nearly impossible to withdraw USD/EUR in ATMs in Russia.
The sanctions are effective. They aren't powerful enough but they are definitely effective.
Citizens of Russia do feel sanctions. For example many cancer patients died without chemotherapy. The consumer inflation is there.
That's a bad, non-diversified, backing. Anyway nominal rouble rate doesn't matter if you can't withdraw the dollars, if black market prices are way higher and if you can't buy many things (PS5) for roubles and many goods imported through "parallel import scheme" cost lot more than they should if the nominal rate is "true".
Unfortunately, SWIFT is not the only way to transact and many countries are willing to transact with Russia using alternative ways, including russian QPS (quick payment system). Also so far most of the russian banks are still connected to swift. That's not a north korean level yet.
It was proved a load of shite by Putin himself who openly and oh so publicly proclaimed his imperial ambitions in St Petersburg
Ol' Putin seems to have to work hard at hiding the shakey-shakes in his latest vid where he is made to wait.
He can't sit still...like he has the DTs after a hard night on the turps....
The Boom is getting Boomier.
Sanctions hurt both Europe and Russia, there is no question of this. The question is who is hurting more, and who can tough it out? You would suggest Europe suffers more, but I would disagree. European GDP is taking a 1-2% haircut thanks to sanctions. Russian GDP will decline by a magnitude of that (ballpark 10%) as a result of their huge dependence on exports of energy and natural resources.
Europe would certainly have a low tolerance for suffering than Russia, but do you really want to be in Putin's shoes, presiding over a country with a substantially reduced economy, not to mention having to deal with tens of thousands of dead soldiers and pariah status in the world?
I think it's telling that the first deal that Putin suggested to the West was in exchange for easing of sanctions on Russia.
If sanctions were so ineffective, why would Putin be asking for relief on them?
I can't see Russia "cracking" this year, and likely not the next either.
Putin has so much political capital banked at home, not to mention his cult of personality, the media, and everything else he's got going on with regard to energy and natural resources generating wealth.
I think he extends conscription, I think he goes to war economy, I think he will do anything by hook or crook to win in Ukraine.
If he does this, I am sure there will come a time when Russia gets war weary and boots him out (or he just keels over). Unfortunately, I don't see this in the short term, or medium term.
Why? There is a non-zero probability of that happening. Though low.
I see that Switzerland has today agreed (according to a local newspaper) to accept injured civilian Ukranians. This comes from internal political pressure.
Officially however the request was accepted as it was made by a state rather than NATO and thus does not impact Swiss neutrality. 🙄
The "strength" of the rouble is utterly meaningless. Oil and gas purchases are denominated in dollars, the rouble's strength just means that Russia gets fewer roubles in return. It does little to increase their purchasing power globally as their imports have fallen off a cliff due to sanctions. It is of no use to them whatsoever.
Please share this intel that told us Russia has only 2 weeks of funds left please.
has anyone noticed that Russians gained nothing in two weeks now? Last update from warmapper and ISW where Russians gained anything was 6th July followed by Ukrainian gain on 7th
Second act of this war is over, there are some fairly damning statements from pentagon as to Russians third rate performance
Aren't they supposed to be realigning for their next city demolition? One would assume that the destroyed supply dumps is having an effect on this.
Imho they have literally ran out of steam and the boilers have been HIMARSed
Next stage is probably going to go like so
* Russia declares occupied territories as part of Russia after holding sham referenda
* Threatens use of nuclear weapons if counterattacked
* Their bluff is called by Ukraine who continue counterattacks (Kherson could be retaken by cutting off Russians completely on wrong side of river)
Yeah I'd say they were meant to have this big regroup, rearm and push forward plan. But the UAF HIMARS ruined their plans by blowing up their ammo dumps, warehouses and logistical points.
BIDEN needs to parachute into Chechnya and lead an insurgency. russia won’t be able to handle a war on two fronts.
So much for the alarm over Nordstream but still good to see.
Bbbrrrrrrtt
Yeah, the Kremlin coming out yesterday saying they are going to take more of Ukraine, when they are bogged down as it is smacks of late stage Hitler where he was commanding decimated/non existent divisions to attack.
I think they are fine tuning the sound effects.
From Putin's speech, cited earlier, I think he wants to set up a new Russia as a counterpoint to the west. Fair enough, but killing 100,000 Ukrainians is not the way to go about it. Putin bad.
Aging war machines... yeah, nothing to see here #gamechanger
The noose keeps tightening
Just remember once sanctions are in they are rarely ever reversed
If the Antonovsky bridge is destroyed, The Russians can still reinforce kherson by the bridge at Nova Kakhovka.
If Ukraine destroy both bridges well then they have no chance of ever recapturing the south, they will likely try to attack between Kherson and the aforementioned bridge to cut them off, and then will be reliant on capturing the bridge before its destroyed by the russians either.
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