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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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Micky 32

Something to remind ourselves of before clicking on clickbait articles from rags or if you’re thinking of hiding under the bed:

“There has been no recommendation from NPHET to roll back on any of the Covid-19 restrictions which have been eased so far, Dr Holohan said.

He said the recommendation to limit indoor dining to those who are vaccinated when they reopen allows for the "further opening of society, albeit focused on people who are vaccinated".

Dr Holohan said it was "probably not" likely that new restrictions would be introduced later in the year to combat the Delta variant of Covid-19, but didn't rule it out.“”

Turtwig

robinph wrote: »

People who have been vaccinated are in the vast, vast majority not ending up in hospitals, not getting ill with covid and hopefully also not being sources of further infections if they do happen to pick it up from someone else.

Most cases are in the younger unvaccinated population, they are not ending up in hospital in the same rate that older ages would, they are not dying from covid.

What has this to do with the fact that the vaccines are less effective at preventing delta infection compared the original virus and alpha?

I fully acknowledge they're still effective at preventing hospitalisation and death. I've even made posts telling people who were annoyed they got AZ before anyone else was vaccinated that they still got excellent vaccine that prevented severe illness from delta after the first dose

All of this does not change the fact that the vaccines are now less effective at preventing infections. We have lost ground and that makes things harder than they would otherwise have been.

The ridicule Tony got was disproportionate and unwarranted.

robinph

The problem with the UK strategy at this point is there is sections of the population where there are, or were, very few vaccinated. That was fine when we were all shut up at home and doing nothing. Now people are back at work and socialising those groups of unvaccinated are all mixing together and get zero protection from if there were a portion of them vaccinated.

Once the first vulnerable groups had been jabbed and things opened up again it would have been better to allow more random vaccination amongst age groups so that each group gets some protection from their peers. Might not have got such a high take up of the vaccine as working through the age groups in order make people want what they can't yet have, but random people vaccinated would be better for the current situation.

B.A._Baracus

Only my opinion, for what it's worth (which is nothing

)

But I see another lockdown over the horizon. Probably September.

Turtwig

FileNotFound wrote: »

But we don't count 1 dose as vaccinated.

Whats the data after 2 doses? Serious question.

I showed how the vaccines response is different after one dose. Tony is getting ridiculed for his claim is that there's ground lost. We can no longer get the exceptional results we were getting after one dose and two doses.

Back in January a single dosing strategy was 90% effective after four weeks

Two weeks after two doses of AZ is about 60% effective at preventing infection. (Down from 70%+)
Two weeks after two doses of PB is about 80% effective at preventing infection. (Down from 90%+)

Ground has been lost.

FileNotFound

hmmm wrote: »

The point is that previous calculations for when it was safe to reopen were based in large part on single doses lowering spread considerably. Those figures don't look to be as good with Delta, so the maths have changed. Some countries (e.g. the UK) went for a first-dose strategy which was working very well against the earlier variants.

It's not the end of the world, it's changed circumstances and as far as I'm concerned only a timing issue - the vaccines (when fully vaccinated) are providing excellent protection.

Has the UK seen a marked increase in mortality or strain on the NHS since delta landed and became dominant?

I was not aware this had happened.

If we have an aim for X% fully vaccinated the Gov should just announce it so we have a target - then put 100 million into expediting vaccines (be cheaper than the PUP bill)

hmmm

FileNotFound wrote: »

But we don't count 1 dose as vaccinated.

Whats the data after 2 doses? Serious question.

The point is that previous calculations for when it was safe to reopen were based in large part on single doses lowering spread considerably. Those figures don't look to be as good with Delta, so the maths have changed and we need more fully vaccinated to get the same outcome. Some countries (e.g. the UK) went for a first-dose strategy which was working very well against the earlier variants.

It's not the end of the world, it's changed circumstances and as far as I'm concerned only a timing issue - the vaccines (when fully vaccinated) are providing excellent protection.

I think it's important to remember also that the second dose in a two-dose vaccine regimen provides a huge boost in protection, it's not just an extra 10 or 20% of protection.

TefalBrain

Doom mongers hanging on for another wave i see, hoping we can stay in 4eva lockdown. The games up lads. The vaccines have won and we are the complete outlier of Europe in regards moving on with life.

This variant is nothing more than a common cold or at worst a mild flu to the under 40's as has been born out from the UK's experience.

robinph

TonyMaloney wrote: »

If you recall, the UK changed their entire vaccine rollout plan, prioritising more of the population getting a first dose quickly rather than getting people fully vaxed.

Such was the strength of the efficacy against alpha after one dose

Reasons for that change were that having more of the population partially vaccinated sooner is significantly better than having a small number fully vaccinated.

Some protection is better than none.

FileNotFound

TonyMaloney wrote: »

If you recall, the UK changed their entire vaccine rollout plan, prioritising more of the population getting a first dose quickly rather than getting people fully vaxed.

Such was the strength of the efficacy against alpha after one dose

Thats a sideways step not to answer a question there Tony.

And then one can counter that the UK has high delta but low mortality and hospital cases - so seems there plan is still valid on face value.

But seriously whats the story after you get vaccinated by our standards - i.e 2 dose?

fun loving criminal

Australia seems to be in a bad place right now especially NSW. NSW had over 200 cases yesterday with 24 cases that were community transmission and coupled with their lack of vaccines, I don't think they can keep this b@stard of a virus out anymore.

FileNotFound

When did this stop being about deaths and overwhelmed hospitals?

The worlds biggest case study is happening in the UK and to date it appears that everything is going quite well in relation to these 2 criteria.

TonyMaloney

FileNotFound wrote: »

But we don't count 1 dose as vaccinated.

Whats the data after 2 doses? Serious question.

If you recall, the UK changed their entire vaccine rollout plan, prioritising more of the population getting a first dose quickly rather than getting people fully vaxed.

Such was the strength of the efficacy against alpha after one dose

stephenjmcd

Turtwig wrote: »

Tony is correct.

Back in January 4 weeks after your first dose of Pfizer or AZ the vaccines reduced your risk of infection by 90%. Transmission was reduced by about 50%.

With Delta four weeks after your first dose the risk of infection is reduced by less than 50%. Why are people retconning this? The vaccines still prevent severe disease. That doesn't mean we haven't lost significant ground - we have. The vaccines prevented infection against the original wildtype and alpha. This is no longer the case with Delta, at least in the same timeframe.

Suggesting we haven't lost ground is bizarre.

I think posters are questioning this comment,

"But they did significantly reduce transmission, and we based a lot of our plans around that fact.

That advantage has been lost to delta"

I don't recall seeing any studies yet on the impact of delta on vaccines ability to impact transmission. There isn't a question on reduced efficiency after 1 dose, we know that 2 doses gives the protection, the queries other posters have are around transmission, the above statement as far as I'm aware isn't proven either way yet

robinph

Turtwig wrote: »

Explain

People who have been vaccinated are in the vast, vast majority not ending up in hospitals, not getting ill with covid and hopefully also not being sources of further infections if they do happen to pick it up from someone else.

Most cases are in the younger unvaccinated population, they are not ending up in hospital in the same rate that older ages would, they are not dying from covid.

Micky 32

FileNotFound wrote: »

But we don't count 1 dose as vaccinated.

Whats the data after 2 doses? Serious question.

It’s the usual shyte on here. I wouldn’t bother.

dominatinMC

Turtwig wrote: »

Tony is correct.

Back in January 4 weeks after your first dose of Pfizer or AZ the vaccines reduced your risk of infection by 90%. Transmission was reduced by about 50%.

With Delta four weeks after your first dose the risk of infection is reduced by less than 50%. Why are people retconning this? The vaccines still prevent severe disease. That doesn't mean we haven't lost significant ground - we have. The vaccines prevented infection against the original wildtype and alpha. This is no longer the case with Delta, at least in the same timeframe.

Suggesting we haven't lost ground is bizarre.

Not being condescending or anything, but do you have any source for this? Trying to find the right data/info is tough, it's a minefield out there!

FileNotFound

Turtwig wrote: »

Tony is correct.

Back in January 4 weeks after your first dose of Pfizer or AZ the vaccines reduced your risk of infection by 90%. Transmission was reduced by about 50%.

With Delta four weeks after your first dose the risk of infection is reduced by less than 50%. Why are people retconning this? The vaccines still prevent severe disease. That doesn't mean we haven't lost significant ground - we have. The vaccines prevented infection against the original wildtype and alpha. This is no longer the case with Delta, at least in the same timeframe.

Suggesting we haven't lost ground is bizarre.

But we don't count 1 dose as vaccinated.

Whats the data after 2 doses? Serious question.

Turtwig

robinph wrote: »

If that were what was happening then the numbers for cases, hospitalisations and deaths in the UK would have the decimal point two places further to the right.

Explain

TonyMaloney

dominatinMC wrote: »

I'm not even sure this is the case. A lot of conflicting science and reporting out there.

Fair play, don't take me at face value.

I'm trying to find a good source

robinph

Turtwig wrote: »

Tony is correct.

Back in January 4 weeks after your first dose of Pfizer or AZ the vaccines reduced your risk of infection by 90%. Transmission was reduced by about 50%.

With Delta four weeks after your first dose the risk of infection is reduced by less than 50% percent. Why are people retconning this? The vaccines still prevent severe disease. That doesn't mean we haven't lost significant ground - we have. The vaccines prevented infection against the original wildtype and alpha. This is no longer the case with Delta, at least in the same timeframe.

Suggesting we haven't lost ground is bizarre.

If that were what was happening then the numbers for cases, hospitalisations and deaths in the UK would have the decimal point two places further to the right.

dominatinMC

FileNotFound wrote: »

The latest study being touted about the J&J vaccine in SA I think seems to indicate its highly effective.

The UK hospital and mortality figures would seem to indicate AZ is highly effective.

Haven't seen anything to say they actually are not beyond the usual scaremongering to be fair.

One thing NPHET could do is actually find decent studies and inform the nation on them in a nice clear way.

Good point. Every day I hear someone on the radio say vaccines are less effective (Stephen Donnelly on Pat Kenny yesterday for example), but it depends on which metric you're using to determine efficacy. PHE showed that the vaccines are actually more effective against hospitalisation for Delta than Alpha. But of course, we can't have such positivity being reported..:pac:

Turtwig

Tony is correct.

Back in January 4 weeks after your first dose of Pfizer or AZ the vaccines reduced your risk of infection by 90%. Transmission was reduced by about 50%.

With Delta four weeks after your first dose the risk of infection is reduced by less than 50%. Why are people retconning this? The vaccines still prevent severe disease. That doesn't mean we haven't lost significant ground - we have. The vaccines prevented infection against the original wildtype and alpha. This is no longer the case with Delta, at least in the same timeframe.

Suggesting we haven't lost ground is bizarre.

dominatinMC

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Sorry, I don't mean lost. Not entirely.
But it's reduced to the point where a vaccinated person could no longer be thought of as a barrier to the non-vaccinated.

I'm not even sure this is the case. A lot of conflicting science and reporting out there.

[Deleted User]

dominatinMC wrote: »

Genuinely curious, has this actually been proven?? I have seen some data to suggest a reduction, but not sure if it is conclusively "lost"..

Weakened rather than lost
A newer generation of vaccines will restore it
Rinse and repeat
The oft quoted about worldwide vaccinations line 'we're not safe untill everyone's safe' is true here
When large countries are mostly unvaccinated ,then newer dangerous variants will always pop up
The virus can't talk,So its impossible to completely seal Ireland from one of them and as we know,once its in,its in

brickster69

Interesting article from Spain. A few weeks behind the UK so looking ominous for continued travel soon.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2021-07-02/spain-records-new-rise-in-coronavirus-infection-rate-as-cases-among-young-people-continue-to-spike.html

FileNotFound

dominatinMC wrote: »

Genuinely curious, has this actually been proven?? I have seen some data to suggest a reduction, but not sure if it is conclusively "lost"..

The latest study being touted about the J&J vaccine in SA I think seems to indicate its highly effective.

The UK hospital and mortality figures would seem to indicate AZ is highly effective.

Haven't seen anything to say they actually are not beyond the usual scaremongering to be fair.

One thing NPHET could do is actually find decent studies and inform the nation on them in a nice clear way.

TonyMaloney

dominatinMC wrote: »

Genuinely curious, has this actually been proven?? I have seen some data to suggest a reduction, but not sure if it is conclusively "lost"..

Sorry, I don't mean lost. Not entirely.
But it's reduced to the point where a vaccinated person could no longer be thought of as a barrier to the non-vaccinated.

Danzy

dominatinMC wrote: »

Genuinely curious, has this actually been proven?? I have seen some data to suggest a reduction, but not sure if it is conclusively "lost"..

No, it hasn't been lost or anything close.

Danzy

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I keep hearing a variation of this repeated - "the vaccines were not designed to stop infection, they just give the person protection from serious disease".
And while technically correct it completely ignores that with original covid and other known variants, the vaccines did largely provide immunity from infection.

It was a huge advantage that we've effectively lost to delta.
Vaccinated people helped to protect the non-vaccinated, but that is as good as over now.

That's just being dramatic for it's own sake.

Your post is ignoring evidence, it's catastrophizing.