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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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Micky 32

FileNotFound wrote: »

But we don't count 1 dose as vaccinated.

Whats the data after 2 doses? Serious question.

It’s the usual shyte on here. I wouldn’t bother.

robinph

Turtwig wrote: »

Explain

People who have been vaccinated are in the vast, vast majority not ending up in hospitals, not getting ill with covid and hopefully also not being sources of further infections if they do happen to pick it up from someone else.

Most cases are in the younger unvaccinated population, they are not ending up in hospital in the same rate that older ages would, they are not dying from covid.

stephenjmcd

Turtwig wrote: »

Tony is correct.

Back in January 4 weeks after your first dose of Pfizer or AZ the vaccines reduced your risk of infection by 90%. Transmission was reduced by about 50%.

With Delta four weeks after your first dose the risk of infection is reduced by less than 50%. Why are people retconning this? The vaccines still prevent severe disease. That doesn't mean we haven't lost significant ground - we have. The vaccines prevented infection against the original wildtype and alpha. This is no longer the case with Delta, at least in the same timeframe.

Suggesting we haven't lost ground is bizarre.

I think posters are questioning this comment,

"But they did significantly reduce transmission, and we based a lot of our plans around that fact.

That advantage has been lost to delta"

I don't recall seeing any studies yet on the impact of delta on vaccines ability to impact transmission. There isn't a question on reduced efficiency after 1 dose, we know that 2 doses gives the protection, the queries other posters have are around transmission, the above statement as far as I'm aware isn't proven either way yet

TonyMaloney

FileNotFound wrote: »

But we don't count 1 dose as vaccinated.

Whats the data after 2 doses? Serious question.

If you recall, the UK changed their entire vaccine rollout plan, prioritising more of the population getting a first dose quickly rather than getting people fully vaxed.

Such was the strength of the efficacy against alpha after one dose

FileNotFound

When did this stop being about deaths and overwhelmed hospitals?

The worlds biggest case study is happening in the UK and to date it appears that everything is going quite well in relation to these 2 criteria.

fun loving criminal

Australia seems to be in a bad place right now especially NSW. NSW had over 200 cases yesterday with 24 cases that were community transmission and coupled with their lack of vaccines, I don't think they can keep this b@stard of a virus out anymore.

FileNotFound

TonyMaloney wrote: »

If you recall, the UK changed their entire vaccine rollout plan, prioritising more of the population getting a first dose quickly rather than getting people fully vaxed.

Such was the strength of the efficacy against alpha after one dose

Thats a sideways step not to answer a question there Tony.

And then one can counter that the UK has high delta but low mortality and hospital cases - so seems there plan is still valid on face value.

But seriously whats the story after you get vaccinated by our standards - i.e 2 dose?

robinph

TonyMaloney wrote: »

If you recall, the UK changed their entire vaccine rollout plan, prioritising more of the population getting a first dose quickly rather than getting people fully vaxed.

Such was the strength of the efficacy against alpha after one dose

Reasons for that change were that having more of the population partially vaccinated sooner is significantly better than having a small number fully vaccinated.

Some protection is better than none.

TefalBrain

Doom mongers hanging on for another wave i see, hoping we can stay in 4eva lockdown. The games up lads. The vaccines have won and we are the complete outlier of Europe in regards moving on with life.

This variant is nothing more than a common cold or at worst a mild flu to the under 40's as has been born out from the UK's experience.

hmmm

FileNotFound wrote: »

But we don't count 1 dose as vaccinated.

Whats the data after 2 doses? Serious question.

The point is that previous calculations for when it was safe to reopen were based in large part on single doses lowering spread considerably. Those figures don't look to be as good with Delta, so the maths have changed and we need more fully vaccinated to get the same outcome. Some countries (e.g. the UK) went for a first-dose strategy which was working very well against the earlier variants.

It's not the end of the world, it's changed circumstances and as far as I'm concerned only a timing issue - the vaccines (when fully vaccinated) are providing excellent protection.

I think it's important to remember also that the second dose in a two-dose vaccine regimen provides a huge boost in protection, it's not just an extra 10 or 20% of protection.

FileNotFound

hmmm wrote: »

The point is that previous calculations for when it was safe to reopen were based in large part on single doses lowering spread considerably. Those figures don't look to be as good with Delta, so the maths have changed. Some countries (e.g. the UK) went for a first-dose strategy which was working very well against the earlier variants.

It's not the end of the world, it's changed circumstances and as far as I'm concerned only a timing issue - the vaccines (when fully vaccinated) are providing excellent protection.

Has the UK seen a marked increase in mortality or strain on the NHS since delta landed and became dominant?

I was not aware this had happened.

If we have an aim for X% fully vaccinated the Gov should just announce it so we have a target - then put 100 million into expediting vaccines (be cheaper than the PUP bill)

Turtwig

FileNotFound wrote: »

But we don't count 1 dose as vaccinated.

Whats the data after 2 doses? Serious question.

I showed how the vaccines response is different after one dose. Tony is getting ridiculed for his claim is that there's ground lost. We can no longer get the exceptional results we were getting after one dose and two doses.

Back in January a single dosing strategy was 90% effective after four weeks

Two weeks after two doses of AZ is about 60% effective at preventing infection. (Down from 70%+)
Two weeks after two doses of PB is about 80% effective at preventing infection. (Down from 90%+)

Ground has been lost.

B.A._Baracus

Only my opinion, for what it's worth (which is nothing

)

But I see another lockdown over the horizon. Probably September.

robinph

The problem with the UK strategy at this point is there is sections of the population where there are, or were, very few vaccinated. That was fine when we were all shut up at home and doing nothing. Now people are back at work and socialising those groups of unvaccinated are all mixing together and get zero protection from if there were a portion of them vaccinated.

Once the first vulnerable groups had been jabbed and things opened up again it would have been better to allow more random vaccination amongst age groups so that each group gets some protection from their peers. Might not have got such a high take up of the vaccine as working through the age groups in order make people want what they can't yet have, but random people vaccinated would be better for the current situation.

Turtwig

robinph wrote: »

People who have been vaccinated are in the vast, vast majority not ending up in hospitals, not getting ill with covid and hopefully also not being sources of further infections if they do happen to pick it up from someone else.

Most cases are in the younger unvaccinated population, they are not ending up in hospital in the same rate that older ages would, they are not dying from covid.

What has this to do with the fact that the vaccines are less effective at preventing delta infection compared the original virus and alpha?

I fully acknowledge they're still effective at preventing hospitalisation and death. I've even made posts telling people who were annoyed they got AZ before anyone else was vaccinated that they still got excellent vaccine that prevented severe illness from delta after the first dose

All of this does not change the fact that the vaccines are now less effective at preventing infections. We have lost ground and that makes things harder than they would otherwise have been.

The ridicule Tony got was disproportionate and unwarranted.

Micky 32

Something to remind ourselves of before clicking on clickbait articles from rags or if you’re thinking of hiding under the bed:

“There has been no recommendation from NPHET to roll back on any of the Covid-19 restrictions which have been eased so far, Dr Holohan said.

He said the recommendation to limit indoor dining to those who are vaccinated when they reopen allows for the "further opening of society, albeit focused on people who are vaccinated".

Dr Holohan said it was "probably not" likely that new restrictions would be introduced later in the year to combat the Delta variant of Covid-19, but didn't rule it out.“”

FileNotFound

Turtwig wrote: »

I showed how the vaccines response is different after one dose. Tony is getting ridiculed for his claim is that there's ground lost. We can no longer get the exceptional results we were getting after one dose and two doses.

Back in January a single dosing strategy was 90% effective after four weeks

Two weeks after two doses of AZ is about 60% effective at preventing infection. (Down from 70%+)
Two weeks after two doses of PB is about 80% effective at preventing infection. (Down from 90%+)

Ground has been lost.

Hold on your 2 dose a data above has me confused - we were talking transmission but you've gone to infection.

Technically everyone has to be reinfected before their new immunity can prevent it from doing harm.

Also is this info from comparable studies - age groups, time of year, etc. etc. These are very specific statements (may well be right) - but the study I saw earlier (well the papers reporting of it) has J&J at higher efficacy v this variant than some others.

Tony is not being ridiculed - just questioned on statements of fact.

I suppose I keep looking to the UK as the worlds largest and comprehensive case study on the least effective vaccine and it's going well, which does not align with what you're stating as fact.

The gap here is hard for any reasonable person to reconcile.

FileNotFound

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Only my opinion, for what it's worth (which is nothing )

But I see another lockdown over the horizon. Probably September.

You could be right - under the guise of we need to allow education to return haha

Hopefully not though - if almost the entire adult population is vaccinated then one would have serious questions

jakiah

Micky 32 wrote: »

Something to remind ourselves of before clicking on clickbait articles from rags or if you’re thinking of hiding under the bed:

“There has been no recommendation from NPHET to roll back on any of the Covid-19 restrictions which have been eased so far, Dr Holohan said.

He said the recommendation to limit indoor dining to those who are vaccinated when they reopen allows for the "further opening of society, albeit focused on people who are vaccinated".

Dr Holohan said it was "probably not" likely that new restrictions would be introduced later in the year to combat the Delta variant of Covid-19, but didn't rule it out.“”

Wait, what?

NPHET are predicting 2000 deaths in three months as their worst case, how would we not need restrictions then? Or does that mean the 'worst case' wont happen? Why publish it then?

robinph

Turtwig wrote: »

What has this to do with the fact that the vaccines are less effective at preventing delta infection compared the original virus and alpha?

I fully acknowledge they're still effective at preventing hospitalisation and death. I've even made posts telling people who were annoyed they got AZ before anyone else was vaccinated that they still got excellent vaccine that prevented severe illness from delta after the first dose

All of this does not change the fact that the vaccines are now less effective at preventing infections. We have lost ground and that makes things harder than they would otherwise have been.

The ridicule Tony got was disproportionate and unwarranted.

So 96% and 92% effective against the Delta variant isn't good enough for you?

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

How effective were they against Alpha that the difference is anything to get concerned about?

FileNotFound

jakiah wrote: »

Wait, what?

NPHET are predicting 2000 deaths in three months as their worst case, how would we not need restrictions then? Or does that mean the 'worst case' wont happen? Why publish it then?

Did they mention the best case form the same model anywhere?

[Deleted User]

Turtwig wrote: »

I showed how the vaccines response is different after one dose. Tony is getting ridiculed for his claim is that there's ground lost. We can no longer get the exceptional results we were getting after one dose and two doses.

Back in January a single dosing strategy was 90% effective after four weeks

Two weeks after two doses of AZ is about 60% effective at preventing infection. (Down from 70%+)
Two weeks after two doses of PB is about 80% effective at preventing infection. (Down from 90%+)

Ground has been lost.

These figures aren't correct though?

hmmm

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Only my opinion, for what it's worth (which is nothing )

But I see another lockdown over the horizon. Probably September.

If we are cautious and get reopening right there shouldn't have to be, I think that would be a policy failure. By September every adult who wants a vaccine should have been offered one, and possibly teens as well.

This variant is still knocked on the head when people are fully vaccinated. One dose of vaccine appears less effective (except for J&J). That's all we know for certain.

TefalBrain

Little or no increase in UK hospitalizations since this variant started.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1190335/covid-19-daily-hospitalizations-in-the-uk/

Delta is a wet fart

Turtwig

robinph wrote: »

So 96% and 92% effective against the Delta variant isn't good enough for you?

When did I ever say that wasn't?

Turtwig

AdamD wrote: »

These figures aren't correct though?

It's PHE's data. Rounded to nearest ten. I rounded them because each week PHE publish updated data. The numbers may vary a little and the confidence interval may change. Easier to just round to nearest tens and always be within the ball park.

Danzy

TefalBrain wrote: »

Little or no increase in UK hospitalizations since this variant started.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1190335/covid-19-daily-hospitalizations-in-the-uk/

Delta is a wet fart

The sting is gone from Delta because most there are vaccinated, to sone degree.

Turtwig

stephenjmcd wrote: »

"But they did significantly reduce transmission, and we based a lot of our plans around that fact.

That advantage has been lost to delta"

If you had a vaccine that prevents infection . Then it's much harder for the virus to transmit onwards. The virus is unlikely to replicate within the vaccinated individual for long.

The covid vaccines provided this protection against the wildtype and alpha after one dose.

Now, after both one and two doses the vaccines have lost ground in preventing symptomatic infection from delta. The virus can replicate within someone for much longer. That impacts transmissibility.

The vaccines, especially two doses, should still reduce transmissibility. Just not as effectively as before. In particular one dose that was really effective against onwards transmission should now be considerably weaker. Two doses, less so.

Given delta is still "new" to the UK it'll be a few weeks before transmissibility reduction by vaccines can be quantified.

stephenjmcd

Turtwig wrote: »

If you had a vaccine that prevents infection . Then it's much harder for the virus to transmit onwards. The virus is unlikely to replicate within the vaccinated individual for long.

The covid vaccines provided this protection against the wildtype and alpha after one dose.

Now, after both one and two doses the vaccines have lost ground in preventing symptomatic infection from delta. The virus can replicate within someone for much longer. That impacts transmissibility.

The vaccines, especially two doses, should still reduce transmissibility. Just not as effectively as before. In particular one dose that was really effective against onwards transmission should now be considerably weaker. Two doses, less so.

Given delta is still "new" to the UK it'll be a few weeks before transmissibility reduction by vaccines can be quantified.

That's the whole point of my reply and that was what others were asking in response to the initial comment.

The initial post was, " As you all keep pointing out the point of the vaccines was to offer protection. But they did significantly reduce transmission, and we based a lot of our plans around that fact.

That advantage has been lost to delta"

So we're all in agreement that the above statement can't be confirmed either way with regards to transmission, it's an unknown at this stage but we can assume full vaccination still provides an impact on transmission.

OwenM

Turtwig wrote: »

Tony is correct.

Back in January 4 weeks after your first dose of Pfizer or AZ the vaccines reduced your risk of infection by 90%. Transmission was reduced by about 50%.

With Delta four weeks after your first dose the risk of infection is reduced by less than 50%. Why are people retconning this? The vaccines still prevent severe disease. That doesn't mean we haven't lost significant ground - we have. The vaccines prevented infection against the original wildtype and alpha. This is no longer the case with Delta, at least in the same timeframe.

Suggesting we haven't lost ground is bizarre.

The only ground lost is slightly reduced efficacy against symptomatic infection, there is actually less chance of going to hospital with delta in people with a single dose, fully vaccinated people are just as protected by the current vaccines from delta as alpha, actually it's marginally more protected.

https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1408750033286074371