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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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TonyMaloney

amandstu wrote: »

Here's the post
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=117551705&postcount=888

A nod and a wink in my eyes

Not claiming to do it themselves but approving of others who might.

All in this together,right?

Yes, I approve of people ringing their GP to see if in the clinical opinion of the doctor, their chronic respiratory condition might qualify them for a spare dose.

MadYaker

amandstu wrote: »

Great attitude there.

I guess you agreed with the rest of the post so? That's good.

amandstu

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Yes, I approve of people ringing their GP to see if in the clinical opinion of the doctor, their chronic respiratory condition might qualify them for a spare dose.

Not what you implied by your previous post
"
if so ring your GP. You might be surprised.
I've friends who've barely seen an inhaler in 30 years who are now fully vaxxed"

Still that is your story and you are sticking by it I suppose

appledrop

MadYaker wrote: »

Who gives a fcuk about cases if it doesn't translate into hospital capacity? I expect cases to rise significantly and hospitalisations to rise marginally and in 3 or 4 weeks the gov will be back tracking. But once again, they've completely misjudged the public opinion here and it is going to cost them in the next election. If it was up to Tony we'd be in a lockdown every winter to stop the flu season and give his buddies working in the hospitals an easier time of it. Micheal Martin has so little backbone it's a wonder he can stand upright at all.

I have to agree the government need to wake up and cop on. People have had enough. We need to learn to live with it.

NPHET calling rapid tests snake oil and then coming out with off the wall quotes of 2,000 deaths.

Guess who is looking like the real snake oil merchants now!

landofthetree

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1410155656129228800

beggars_bush

appledrop wrote: »

I have to agree the government need to wake up and cop on. People have had enough. We need to learn to live with it.

NPHET calling rapid tests snake oil and then coming out with off the wall quotes of 2,000 deaths.

Guess who is looking like the real snake oil merchants now!

2000 deaths
Worst case scenario

wadacrack

landofthetree wrote: »

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1410155656129228800

That doesn't look good with the trajectory of hospitalizations . Likely be a lag too.

appledrop

beggars_bush wrote: »

2000 deaths
Worst case scenario

It's scaremongering and people have had enough.

It's like time NPHET asked people to just do a bit more and twitter went mental!

Why don't they interview people in media who call Nphet out on these false scaremongering models of predictions?

brickster69

Barcelona having a big spike.

https://twitter.com/Covid19Crusher/status/1410142160184348674

appledrop

We need to stop looking at number of cases.

The vaccines were never going to stop Covid, but always the aim to prevent hospitial stays and deaths.

It doesn't matter if you have 1,000 cases if only 10 need to go to hospitial.

wadacrack

appledrop wrote: »

We need to stop looking at number of cases.

The vaccines were never going to stop Covid, but always the aim to prevent hospitial stays and deaths.

It doesn't matter if you have 1,000 cases if only 10 need to go to hospitial.

It does matter as link to hospitalizations is thankfully much weaker but not broken.

It would seem that about 1 % of cases will lead to hospitalizations , hopefully that will lower. But data across all seems to show that about 1-2% of cases will translate to hospital cases

appledrop

NPHET have officially lost the plot. CMO has admitted if not for 'vaccine' card agreement they would have advised the government to keep indoor dining closed until at least Sept if not longer.

Bye Bye NPHET!!!!!!!!!!

#disbandnphet

Kermit.de.frog

We are approaching the real test for vaccinations in the weeks ahead as it's patently obvious a major new wave has begun in many countries.

For now deaths remain constrained which is good to see. However, if hospitalisations and deaths start to spike significantly again all bets are off.

That's the nightmare scenario because that would be in spite of vaccine progress.

We need to get over this hurdle to reach the light at the end of the tunnel.

saabsaab

appledrop wrote: »

NPHET have officially lost the plot. CMO has admitted if not for 'vaccine' card agreement they would have advised the government to keep indoor dining closed until at least Sept if not longer.

Bye Bye NPHET!!!!!!!!!!

#disbandnphet

Bring on the vaccine passes!

landofthetree

wadacrack wrote: »

That doesn't look good with the trajectory of hospitalizations . Likely be a lag too.

It's doesn't look good for lockdown fanatics alright.

brickster69

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We are approaching the real test for vaccinations in the weeks ahead as it's patently obvious a major new wave has begun in many countries.

For now deaths remain constrained which is good to see. However, if hospitalisations and deaths start to spike significantly again all bets are off.

That's the nightmare scenario because that would be in spite of vaccine progress.

We need to get over this hurdle to reach the light at the end of the tunnel.

From Ireland's view it is probably better to look maybe at Portugal & Spain because they have similar jab rate and it is just starting off now.

If deaths and things kick off in the UK, then everyone knows they are in deep trouble.

amandstu

brickster69 wrote: »

From Ireland's view it is probably better to look maybe at Portugal & Spain because they have similar jab rate and it is just starting off now.

If deaths and things kick off in the UK, then everyone knows they are in deep trouble.

The staff in the hospitals may well have a strong feeling as to the severity of Delta cases across the age cohorts.
There may be no strong stats yet to back up their feeling but they may well have a good idea where this is going.

Mimon

VonLuck wrote: »

No one said they are faking or exaggerating an illness. I wouldn't begrudge anyone who rings their GP, tells them exactly what condition they have and then they are offered a vaccine.

If they're not entitled to a vaccine then the GP shouldn't be giving them one, simple as. It's not for the person requesting a vaccine to decide whether they get it or not.

It's manipulation driven by selfishness. I have asthma since getting Covid last March but waited my turn based on age.

Just because the system can be manipulated doesn't make it right.

Loafing Oaf

appledrop wrote: »

NPHET have officially lost the plot. CMO has admitted if not for 'vaccine' card agreement they would have advised the government to keep indoor dining closed until at least Sept if not longer.

But if the vaccine passport doesn't happen (and I wouldn't put too much money on it) then presumably this recommendation still holds

Goldengirl

Ballynally wrote: »

The vaccines have greater efficacy against the Delta variant compared to Alpha, if you look at both hospitalisations and deaths.
I said i wasnt going to produce/compare numbers but i will make an exception.
It is too beautiful to ignore:
The amount of deaths from the Delta variant in the under 50s in the UK up to june 24 is:
0 (yes, you read that right). Official UK figures.

Untrue , its 8 under 50 RIP from Delta .

Danzy

Goldengirl wrote: »

Untrue , its 8 under 50 RIP from Delta .

Which isn't bad. God be good to the dead.

[Deleted User]

Goldengirl wrote: »

Untrue , its 8 under 50 RIP from Delta .

0 when fully dosed.

RIP to 8 unvaccinated/partially vaccinated persons out of population cohort of 35 million.

Get your jabs.

[Deleted User]

https://www.aninews.in/news/national/general-news/covid-vaccines-provided-protection-in-over-95-pc-of-vaccinated-healthcare-workers-says-study20210616200420/

0 deaths in vaccinated HCW in delta india surge.

Not bad given the carnage there.

I actually think Delta while definitely more infectious is slightly less severe (which fits into natural scientific evolution).

We would still be absolutely fooked without vaccines though given its transmisability and the amounts of old people in western europe.

Goldengirl

Woody79 wrote: »

0 when fully dosed.

RIP to 8 unvaccinated/partially vaccinated persons out of population cohort of 35 million.

Get your jabs.

Yes I think 2 were partially vaccinated .

Widdensushi

wadacrack wrote: »

It does matter as link to hospitalizations is thankfully much weaker but not broken.

It would seem that about 1 % of cases will lead to hospitalizations , hopefully that will lower. But data across all seems to show that about 1-2% of cases will translate to hospital cases

Where is the data that says 2% of cases will translate to hospital cases?

robinph

brickster69 wrote: »

From Ireland's view it is probably better to look maybe at Portugal & Spain because they have similar jab rate and it is just starting off now.

If deaths and things kick off in the UK, then everyone knows they are in deep trouble.

If deaths kick off in the UK then everyone, everywhere is in deep trouble as it would mean the vaccines aren't working and the delta variant, as well as being more transmissible, is also more dangerous.

Not seeing anything yet to indicate that is what is going on in the UK though. Cases are going up, but not across the whole country as it is hitting one area for a few weeks then begins to fade away, hospitalisations are very slowly creeping up but nothing like matching the cases, and deaths and numbers on ventilation are also creeping up but at a slower rate again than the hospitalisation.

May not yet be time to go completely nuts with removing all social distancing and having loads of massive house parties, but things are not looking too bad.

Goldengirl

Woody79 wrote: »

https://www.aninews.in/news/national/general-news/covid-vaccines-provided-protection-in-over-95-pc-of-vaccinated-healthcare-workers-says-study20210616200420/

0 deaths in vaccinated HCW in delta india surge.

Not bad given the carnage there.

I actually think Delta while definitely more infectious is slightly less severe (which fits into natural scientific evolution).

We would still be absolutely fooked without vaccines though given its transmisability and the amounts of old people in western europe.

Don't know if it's less severe yet , just that full vaccination appears to be working ...mostly .

My other post was literally to call out the bs from the previous poster I was replying to who is spamming the thread with his/ her unfounded opinions and nothing to back it up .

I think and hope we"ll cope with this once as many as possible get their vaccinations but I have my doubts that we will get as high levels in the under 30s vaxxed without some reward or carrot .
Just what I am hearing ...

Wolf359f

Widdensushi wrote: »

Where is the data that says 2% of cases will translate to hospital cases?

To take crude figures, past 7 days in the UK, 1677 people admitted, the 7 days previous to that, had 79,481 cases. I'm just going with a week lag between confirmed case and admission. Which gives 2.1% hospitalised.

[Deleted User]

Don't know if it's less severe yet , just that full vaccination appears to be working ...mostly .

Why then are vaccines less likely to stop infection with new strain compared to alpha?

But vaccinated persons are less likely to go to hospital with new strain.

All points to:

1. more infectious strain (able to break through vaccines better).
2. less severe strain (when breaks through causes less severe disease).

This all fits with what we were told was the evolution of this virus and coronaviruses in general.

Unicorn Milk Latte

Background on re-instating the mask mandate in Israel, which had a quick and successful vaccination campaign:

This was triggered by outbreaks in 30 (!) schools. The overall - not just adult - percentage of people fully vaccinated is still under 60%.

One main factor in containment efforts (in general, not just Israel) is that when many people get infected, it gives the virus the opportunity to mutate and create new variants, which can be more contagious and possibly more severe. It also makes it easier for immune escape mutations to develop.

When a variant is more contagious, that's an evolutionary advantage. That's why the Alpha variant became dominant earlier, and the Delta variant is becoming dominant now. There are some global differences, but there seems to be 'parallel evolution', meaning variants with similar advantageous genetic treats develop at the same time in different countries. Not unusual in virus evolution.

While we have good progress with vaccinations and low incidence in Ireland, it's a global pandemic, and, regardless of the vaccine progress, the number of global cases in the first half of 2021 is already higher than the number of cases in all of 2020.

Meanwhile India is observing a new variant they currently call 'Delta plus' which is related to Delta. No definite data yet if it is more contagious than Delta.