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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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Calahonda52

wadacrack wrote: »

Sinovac is still pretty effective, 67% or so. I did mention that vaccines will mitigate the risk too. This variant will transmit too quickly in the Uk to prevent a significant third wave. The scale of infection will be too high in spite of vaccination.

needle or just a line informing this science?

FintanMcluskey

It’s the lovely month of June, the gadflies are swarming, and this won’t end anytime soon

It’s going to take something extraordinary to apply the brakes to the hysteria train, vaccine resistant variants that don’t exist are the unquenchable fire

ShineOn7

Feria40 wrote: »

"Health secretary Matt Hancock told the House of Commons that out of 12,383 cases of the Delta variant recorded until June 3, 126 were in hospital, or just 1 per cent. Of those admitted, 83 were unvaccinated, 28 had received one jab and just three had had both doses. “The jabs are working,” Hancock said"

I like this Maths

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Right, so 1% ends up in Hospital, and roughly 2% of that ends up in hospital assuming full population vaccination(.02%).

Exponential growth means a possible 13,000 people in hospital. Ignoring the real concern of another stronger vaccine resistant variant and that exponential growth will overtake vaccine rollout.

I don't like this Maths

Fils

Beasty wrote: »

Hang on

They are already in the table - #1

They are brewing some new soup.

gozunda

Beasty wrote: »

I suspect it's pretty inevitable this will grab hold here, but with the vast majority of the vulnerable already vaccinated and the vaccination programme continuing to expand I would hope that although numbers will likely increase the numbers in hospital and intensive care will remain very manageable.

What I'm wondering is how NPHET will react to increasing infection numbers with little impact on those who are badly affected. Will they try and push back some of the opening up dates or will they take the view that it's not necessary given how much our population is already protected. I do have a concern that they will not need much to start looking to hold back some of the proposals to open up.

Tbf the UK could be leading pushing back reopening dates ...

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57438745

Dr. Bre

I’m worried that your worried about the variant

dominatinMC

Dempo1 wrote: »

Unfortunately there is definitely a cohort on this site who take instant offence at debate and opinions that differ from theirs. Some pretty shocking stuff has been posted, from Doctor Death to the Pandemic a hoax.

Unfortunately civil debate descends into very personal attacks and outlandish claims so I predict this thread won't survive to long. It took less than 2 posts by me for the sillyness to start, but its going to be a beautiful weekend and that will be my focus, whilst taking reasonable precautions (even that will offend some)

To be fair, what do you expect when you make claims such as, and I quote, "a new variant that current Vacinnes can't protect against and by all accounts this is looking increasingly likely". What's your source for this?

JP Liz V1

is_that_so wrote: »

For those freaked out by the whole delta thing it's not going anywhere here. Up 10 cases in May to 126.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0611/1227522-coronavirus-ireland/

Over 126 cases now in ROI? Imported from travel?

Wolf359f

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Over 126 cases now in ROI? Imported from travel?

126 cases from December 13th to May 29th. It's not like we've had 126 in the past week!
They make up 1% of sequenced cases, Kappa seems to be growing more than Delta and Kappa is a VOI NOT a VOC

crooked cockney villain

I'm confused as to how it is now 25% of cases in the North but only circa 1% of cases here. I can't imagine they have significantly more travel to mainland UK than we do, in fact as Protestants were less likely to emigrate there would be less family ties on the mainland and thus surely per capita less travel there.

Bottom line is, virtually all vulnerble people have had two jabs. This is typical fearmongering by the bastards who don't want to give up the power we foolishly gave them.

Wanderer78

crooked cockney villain wrote:

Bottom line is, virtually all vulnerble people have had two jabs. This is typical fearmongering by the bastards who don't want to give up the power we foolishly gave them.

Say wha?

Lumen

crooked cockney villain wrote: »

I'm confused as to how it is now 25% of cases in the North but only circa 1% of cases here. I can't imagine they have significantly more travel to mainland UK than we do

It is still illegal for us to fly out of this country for non essential reasons, PCR testing and quarantine is required for anyone returning and there are few flights running.

None of this applies to travel from NI to GB as far as I'm aware.

Lumen

TefalBrain wrote: »

Life must go on now.

You posted this in response to me suggesting that people who are not fully vaccinated should take reasonable precautions, and then went on to write:

TefalBrain wrote: »

I'm convinced there is a certain cohort on this site itching for this variant to shut things down again. I'd go as far as to guess some are even excited over it.

If we, the unvaccinated, do not control the spread by taking reasonable precautions, they, the government, will halt the re-opening just as the UK government is doing, and life will not "go on".

Throwing off the yoke of caution, as you seem to be advocating for, is going to makes the outcome you claim to desire less likely.

Perhaps you are the one itching for another lockdown?

crooked cockney villain

Lumen wrote: »

It is still illegal for us to fly out of this country for non essential reasons, PCR testing and quarantine is required for anyone returning and there are few flights running.

None of this applies to travel from NI to GB as far as I'm aware.

I always wondered how Bono skipping off to London for his birthday didn't provoke some sort of civil war on the airwaves and Twitter here among the outrage mob like these things usually do. Maybe people are just too bored of it.

https://www.sundayworld.com/showbiz/music/bono-celebrates-61st-birthday-in-style-with-daughters-jordan-and-eve-40414009.html

Fils

No one recognises him in his sun glasses.

Supercell

If its in the north in meaningful numbers, and it is, as sure as day follows night it will become the dominant one here too, just like the Kent (Alpha) variant before out competed the first Wuhan version.
Lets hope that by the time it does all the vulnerable groups are fully vaccinated.

celt262

Supercell wrote: »

If its in the north in meaningful numbers, and it is, as sure as day follows night it will become the dominant one here too, just like the Kent (Alpha) variant before out competed the first Wuhan version.
Lets hope that by the time it does all the vulnerable groups are fully vaccinated.

Won't be long Belfast is rammed with weekend trippers from the south the last few weeks.

TefalBrain

People are bored with this now. The usual lockdown junkies are hoping this variant will give them their fix of doom but it won't.

Turtwig

TefalBrain wrote: »

People are bored with this now. The usual lockdown junkies are hoping this variant will give them their fix of doom but it won't.

If only things were this simplistic.

Parachutes

Setting the groundwork now for the excuse for another lockdown.

Wanderer78

Parachutes wrote: »

Setting the groundwork now for the excuse for another lockdown.

absolutely, this is just one huge conspiracy by our governments, just for the craic!

gazzer

According to this article on Sky News since7 June, there have been 42 deaths in England of people confirmed as having the Delta variant and who died within 28 days of testing positive.

23 of these people were unvaccinated, seven had had their first dose more than 21 days before and 12 had their second dose more than 14 days before.

So almost 30% of people who died in that period had received both their jabs. Is that not a high percentage or am I reading too much into it?

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-delta-variant-about-60-more-transmissible-than-alpha-and-more-resistant-to-vaccines-phe-reports-12330068

Wanderer78

SouthWesterly wrote: »

With the Pfizer vaccine not being as effective against the delta varaiant another lockdown is inevitable

gazzer wrote: »

According to this article on Sky News since7 June, there have been 42 deaths in England of people confirmed as having the Delta variant and who died within 28 days of testing positive.

23 of these people were unvaccinated, seven had had their first dose more than 21 days before and 12 had their second dose more than 14 days before.

So almost 30% of people who died in that period had received both their jabs. Is that not a high percentage or am I reading too much into it?

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-delta-variant-about-60-more-transmissible-than-alpha-and-more-resistant-to-vaccines-phe-reports-12330068

ffs!

Parachutes

Wanderer78 wrote: »

absolutely, this is just one huge conspiracy by our governments, just for the craic!

We’ll see who ends up right when in November we end up in level 5 again.

Wanderer78

Parachutes wrote: »

We’ll see who ends up right when in November we end up in level 5 again.

of course theres a possibility of it happening, its a bloody pandemic, but our governments arent doing this just for the craic!

Dempo1

dominatinMC wrote: »

To be fair, what do you expect when you make claims such as, and I quote, "a new variant that current Vacinnes can't protect against and by all accounts this is looking increasingly likely". What's your source for this?

These are not unreasonable points I've raised , can you categorically state current Vacinnes may not protect against a new, móre potent variant? Not even the most eminent immunologist would stake their reputations on such a claim. I also mentioned Vacinnes can be tweaked for new strains. The increasingly likely quote dealt with the possibility of Booster requirements, you conveniently left that part out, again discussed by experts, including Luke O Neill who mentioned this possibility only this week and many times before. Virus's by their very nature are very very clever at adapting, again discussed widely by experts.

There's no conspiracy intent in my contribution to this thread albeit you seem to think there is.

[Deleted User]

gazzer wrote: »

According to this article on Sky News since7 June, there have been 42 deaths in England of people confirmed as having the Delta variant and who died within 28 days of testing positive.

23 of these people were unvaccinated, seven had had their first dose more than 21 days before and 12 had their second dose more than 14 days before.

So almost 30% of people who died in that period had received both their jabs. Is that not a high percentage or am I reading too much into it?

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-delta-variant-about-60-more-transmissible-than-alpha-and-more-resistant-to-vaccines-phe-reports-12330068

Depends on the profile of the patient.

If they are 90-years old with underlying conditions and were on the verge of death anyway, and happened to be COVID-19 positive and vaccinated, then they'd still go down as a Delta death.

ZX7R

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Depends on the profile of the patient.

If they are 90-years old with underlying conditions and were on the verge of death anyway, and happened to be COVID-19 positive and vaccinated, then they'd still go down as a Delta death.

This exactly, at the moment in uk ,if a person dies of cancer and is covid positive they are recorded as a covid death, but the NHS has been instructed to post deaths in hospital to reflect this ,I don't know when it's to start

Fuascailteoir

celt262 wrote: »

Won't be long Belfast is rammed with weekend trippers from the south the last few weeks.

That won't last much longer as marching season will be upon us

Micky 32

Dempo1 wrote: »

There's no conspiracy intent in my contribution to this thread albeit you seem to think there is.

No but there’s a constant unhealthy fixation and obsession of doom by you and another poster about the Delta variant and other variants ( that don’t even exist yet) what “ if this “ “ if that” . There’s no evidence of any variant that will come along and keep us locked up ‘foreva’. ( btw i have been in my last lockdown)

Many experts believe if the virus mutated much to evade vaccines it could lose most of it’s functionality. It doesn’t have too many cards up it’s sleeve going forward.

However you might like this bit of news, should keep you going . It seems the government in the UK are shifting the goalposts again. It’s long covid now.

“”It's not just about the number of hospitalisations, but also the risk to the health of large numbers of younger people, who can suffer long-term symptoms affecting their lives and ability to work."“

Oh it appears being fully jabbed is at least 95% reduction in hospitalisation against the Indian variant. It’s doing ( and will continue) to do it’s job. Over the next few months normality will begin returning. Even international travel is returning soon.