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COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

Beasty

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No anti-vax stuff in this thread - it's to discuss the various vaccines available and how they are getting rolled out, as well as testing procedures

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eagle eye

Woody79 wrote:

At least partial prorltection. At the moment thousands of over 70s with no vaccine. The best vaccine is the earliest.

Well if you get all the over 70's done in the next four weeks they'll still all be fully vaccinated before the Astra second shot.

Economics101

Given that for the moment, the binding constraint is vaccine supply, then if teachers were to be prioritised (and there are many 10s of thousands of them), others currently on high-priority/high-risk lists would be bumped down and have their vaccinations delayed. Can anyone tell me what a teacher should say to someone whose life they are threating because of industrial action?

And how do you decide the pecking order when it gets down to shop workers, versus guards, versus garbage collectors versus many other groups? Will it all be down to trade union power?

It the government cave in on this issue then they will have trashed all the relevant medical evidence: I would hope that high-profile medics would resign from any advisory roles in protest.

TheDoctor

So what day will our 1 millionth dose be given out?

Mid week?

eagle eye

Is the Astra vaccine cheaper? I'm just wondering why we have so much of it when it takes so long to get the second shot?

Charles Babbage

While several vaccines have come into production, there remains a large part of the world to be vaccinated, the likes of Pfizer and Moderna are not ideal for this, AZ and J&J are somewhat more suitable but even these have production problems.

Another vaccine called NDV-HXP-S going into trials in SE Asia is based on traditional flu vaccine production using chicken eggs, and many countries have this production capacity and can easily expand it. This seems to provide mice with immunity against Covid19. If this works then it could get everyone in the world done quickly and cheaply, augmenting redirected production from the first world after August or so.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/05/health/hexapro-mclellan-vaccine.html

Another benefit of all this research is that if there are new variants or even a whole new virus in the future that the ability to develop vaccines will have been enhanced in these times.

[Deleted User]

eagle eye wrote: »

Well if you get all the over 70's done in the next four weeks they'll still all be fully vaccinated before the Astra second shot.

And if an unvaccinated over 70 year old gets infected today?

Get as much protection as quickly as possible to that cohort.

How many over 70 year olds today have no antibodies for covid in ireland?

In UK over 50% of population has antibodies (nearly all over 70s). Ireland probably less than 10% of population. Thats not down to simply supply but also astra decision and less gap between doses. Nonsensical.

eagle eye

Woody79 wrote:

In uk over 50% of population has antibodies. Ireland pribably less than 10%. Thats not downbto simply supply but also astra decision and less gap between doses. Nonsensical.

Well you are supposed to stay safe, social distance, wash your hands etc. There's not many over 70's working so a couple of weeks longer won't make that much of a difference.
I'm sure they all want to be in the position if bring able to visit their friends as soon as possible and Pfizer will make sure that happens quicker.
Fact of the matter is they will be told to continue cocooning until they get the second jab.

astrofool

eagle eye wrote: »

Is the Astra vaccine cheaper? I'm just wondering why we have so much of it when it takes so long to get the second shot?

It is cheaper, we don't have that much of it, and should have had a lot more as it was meant to be easier to make, but the main supply has been Pfizer.

Best efficacy for AZ was found to be a 12 week interval after much messing about with half dose, full doses, combining trial data etc.

For other above questions, AZ messed up their trials making it difficult to prioritise over 70's for it initially, so primary use case was on younger health care workers and young people at risk, in hindsight, it may have been better to give to over 70's (I don't really believe this) but there was a complete lack of data to make a decision like that.

Probes

Deleted User wrote: »

And if an unvaccinated over 70 year old gets infected today?

Get as much protection as quickly as possible to that cohort.

How many over 70 year olds today have no antibodies for covid in ireland?

In UK over 50% of population has antibodies (nearly all over 70s). Ireland probably less than 10% of population. Thats not down to simply supply but also astra decision and less gap between doses. Nonsensical.

Ireland has a lot more than 10% antibodies. When you say uk has 50% that’s with vaccines and previous infections, so comparing with Ireland you have to use vaccines and previous infections too.

But it’s looking increasingly likely that you need over 50% vaccinated to make a serious dent in cases.

[Deleted User]

Charles Babbage wrote: »

While several vaccines have come into production, there remains a large part of the world to be vaccinated, the likes of Pfizer and Moderna are not ideal for this, AZ and J&J are somewhat more suitable but even these have production problems.

Another vaccine called NDV-HXP-S going into trials in SE Asia is based on traditional flu vaccine production using chicken eggs, and many countries have this production capacity and can easily expand it. This seems to provide mice with immunity against Covid19. If this works then it could get everyone in the world done quickly and cheaply, augmenting redirected production from the first world after August or so.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/05/health/hexapro-mclellan-vaccine.html

Another benefit of all this research is that if there are new variants or even a whole new virus in the future that the ability to develop vaccines will have been enhanced in these times.

Vietnam is making one as well. A student of mine, who's 18, volunteered for phase 2 of the trial.

[Deleted User]

eagle eye wrote: »

Well you are supposed to stay safe, social distance, wash your hands etc. There's not many over 70's working so a couple of weeks longer won't make that much of a difference.
I'm sure they all want to be in the position if bring able to visit their friends as soon as possible and Pfizer will make sure that happens quicker.
Fact of the matter is they will be told to continue cocooning until they get the second jab.

Of course its a difference. Why has northern irelands cases and positivity fallen off a cliff compared to ours. Covid has nowhere to go in northern ireland with 50% of population with antibodies compared to our 10%. Everyone their is at less risk with more freedoms simply that they got their vaccine strategy right and ours has been a series of bad decisions . A 70 year old in belfast with 50% of population with antibodies himself included is at a much lower risk than a 70 year old dublin person who today is unvaccinated and only 10% of population has antibodies. Herd immunity benefits are kicking.in belfast example. Not so much in dublin example. Getting as many people especially vulnerable vaccinated as early as possible with one dose gets the most value of reduction in death and severe illness per dose. study in scotland showed vaccines reduced risk of hospitalisation for ivery 80s by around 80% Astra actually performed befire in that cohort that pfzier. Astra is a good vaccine for the elderly.

Cork2021

Good going

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1379072630645526528?s=21

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

And if an unvaccinated over 70 year old gets infected today?

Get as much protection as quickly as possible to that cohort.

How many over 70 year olds today have no antibodies for covid in ireland?

In UK over 50% of population has antibodies (nearly all over 70s). Ireland probably less than 10% of population. Thats not down to simply supply but also astra decision and less gap between doses. Nonsensical.

ONS calculates that 15% of England's population has had Covid, so their much touted 'vaccine success' is against that backdrop.

We don't have a similar estimate for Ireland but I doubt it's anywhere near 15% (probably well under 10%).

[Deleted User]

Cork2021 wrote: »

Good going

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1379072630645526528?s=21

none hospitalised with astra either with SA strain with study of over 3000 people. These vaccines do seem to stop hospitalisation and death even with new variants.

[Deleted User]

Strazdas wrote: »

ONS calculates that 15% of England's population has had Covid, so their much touted 'vaccine success' is against that backdrop.

We don't have a similar estimate for Ireland but I doubt it's anywhere near 15% (probably well under 10%).

They are estimating that based on vaccinations not prior infections. antibodies from infections dont last forever.

Does anyone really care about stuff six months ago in a pandemic?

they are in a good place now and the population are rightly impressed with that. We should learn from them on vaccination rollout.

lbj666

[Deleted User] wrote: »

none hospitalised with astra either with SA strain with study of over 3000 people. These vaccines do seem to stop hospitalisation and death even with new variants.

Which study was that? Just interested.

charlie14

Economics101 wrote: »

Can anyone tell me what a teacher should say to someone whose life they are threating because of industrial action?.

Other than with schools closing in a few weeks it would lessen my chances of taking a holiday in the sun before classes resume, I cannot think of one

[Deleted User]

Probes wrote: »

Ireland has a lot more than 10% antibodies. When you say uk has 50% that’s with vaccines and previous infections, so comparing with Ireland you have to use vaccines and previous infections too.

But it’s looking increasingly likely that you need over 50% vaccinated to make a serious dent in cases.

50% is estimated on vaccines only. Over 50% of pop. vaccinated in UK .

How many in ireland have received first dose?

N.I has done this. Prevalence their probably half of what down here at present when you look at daily cases and positivity is less than 1%. The magic is happening up there. Not so much in republic yet due to poor supply, astra limited to under 70s and silly dosing strategy. We want to fully ptotect a 99 year old a nursing home with two doses before a 70 year old man in the community can get one dose. Totally bonkers stuff. Would that second dose for the 99 year old give more benefit to a 70 year old now. Dosing strategy in UK protects more people individually quicker and reduces spread quicker in the overall community population.Its not that a difficult concept to grasp. Ireland still thinks of itself of insiders and outsiders. Protect insiders first teachers gardai. UK are im afraid to say more concerned with common good and iverall publuc interest. Hopefully we will learn.

Scuid Mhór

TheDoctor wrote: »

So what day will our 1 millionth dose be given out?

Mid week?

How much of our population is comprised of the elderly and those with underlying conditions?

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

They are estimating that based on vaccinations not prior infections. antibodies from infections dont last forever.

Does anyone really care about stuff six months ago in a pandemic?

they are in a good place now and the population are rightly impressed with that. We should learn from them on vaccination rollout.

I'm not sure the vaccine success undoes all the bad stuff that went before : 127,000 people dead and at one point 80,000 people a day were contracting the virus. Britain 'needed' a vaccine success as the previous period had been a disaster, with much blame attached to their government.

Neamhshuntasach

[Deleted User] wrote: »

We should learn from them on vaccination rollout.

If we had got the same percentage of vaccination doses delivered as the UK got relative to their population, do you not think we would have used them? We most likely would have had similar numbers to them.

I don't think there's a lot to learn from their actual rollout outside of the procurement process which was outside of our control.

eoinbn

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

This debate about teachers being vaccinated is farcical. Even if teachers were prioritised, they wouldn't be able to start vaccinating them until mid to end of May (or thereabouts). It takes a few weeks for the vaccine to be effective. Teachers would be on holidays by the time the vaccine is of any use to them.

That is a big part of why they want to be vaccinated. Their holidays are inflexible so they want to be able to maximize their summer - which is understandable to a certain degree.
As you said, the majority of teachers will be on holidays before the first dose even kicks in so the uproar isn't really about wellbeing.

eagle eye

Woody79 wrote:

none hospitalised with astra either with SA strain with study of over 3000 people. These vaccines do seem to stop hospitalisation and death even with new variants.

Have you a link?

VG31

Deleted User wrote: »

none hospitalised with astra either with SA strain with study of over 3000 people. These vaccines do seem to stop hospitalisation and death even with new variants.

I could be mistaken, but I thought one of the reasons the AZ trial in SA was so inconclusive was because there were no severe cases in either the vaccinated or placebo groups?

ACitizenErased

All of the ****e SA studies that claimed the vaccines are terrible still had zero hospitalisations (contradicting the claims). No point posting them here because they're exactly as described, ****e.

[Deleted User]

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

If we had got the same percentage of vaccination doses delivered as the UK got relative to their population, do you not think we would have used them? We most likely would have had similar numbers to them.

I don't think there's a lot to learn from their actual rollout outside of the procurement process which was outside of our control.

We would still stick to strict dosing strategy of one month apart between pfzier moderna vaccines. We are obsessed with getting two doses into people as quicly as possible wheres UK obssessed with getting one dose into people as quickly as possible. The UKstrategy has two benefits over ours. 1. It protects more people quicker individually. 2. It reduces spread quicker. The bonkers decision about astra for over 70s is another decision UK did not make. If we had not made those two decisions we would have all over 70s and most medically vulnerable vaccinated with at least one dose. Our vaccine strategy failure is not simply down to eu supply but plenty of mistakes also by ourselves. Im actually a little ashamed. Its really not rocket science. Maybe its fear of people saying i was wrong. A dangerous thing to do in a pandemic.

Azatadine

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1379058537788289027?s=19

crossman47

Deleted User wrote: »

We would still stick to strict dosing strategy of one month apart between pfzier moderna vaccines. We are obsessed with getting two doses into people as quicly as possible wheres UK obssessed with getting one dose into people as quickly as possible. The UKstrategy has two benefits over ours. 1. It protects more people quicker individually. 2. It reduces spread quicker. The bonkers decision about astra for over 70s is another decision UK did not make. If we had not made those two decisions we would have all over 70s and most medically vulnerable vaccinated with at least one dose. Our vaccine strategy failure is not simply down to eu supply but plenty of mistakes also by ourselves. Im actually a little ashamed. Its really not rocket science. Maybe its fear of people saying i was wrong. A dangerous thing to do in a pandemic.

I think you're mixing two things up. UK uses mainly Astra and 12 weeks is the recommended gap. However, the recommended gap for Pfizer and Moderna, which are the main ones we started with, is four weeks and surely its better to follow the manufacturer's recommendation.

[Deleted User]

Strazdas wrote: »

I'm not sure the vaccine success undoes all the bad stuff that went before : 127,000 people dead and at one point 80,000 people a day were contracting the virus. Britain 'needed' a vaccine success as the previous period had been a disaster, with much blame attached to their government.

In a pandenic its about the future not the past. Sure you keep thinking of all those poor unfortunate deaths that have happened while i will think of whats happening now and hopefully getting a vaccine soon. Its a pandemic unfortunately people are going to die. British public understand that so does the irish public. The average citizen in either country wants to know how soon is this going to be over/getting better for yhe population as a whole. They dont keep thinking everyday how many people died in my country in this pandemic? Thats not how majority of humans think.

odyssey06

crossman47 wrote: »

I think you're mixing two things up. UK uses mainly Astra and 12 weeks is the recommended gap. However, the recommended gap for Pfizer and Moderna, which are the main ones we started with, is four weeks and surely its better to follow the manufacturer's recommendation.

It's not necessarily better. Pfizer and Moderna didn't run studies of comparing 4 weeks versus 12 weeks. They went with 4 weeks because it was quicker to run the trial that way.
Previous vaccines have shown 12 week gaps to be valid.
But maybe mRNA vaccines are different.
I can understand why the UK went with 12 week gap.