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COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

Beasty

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Thread 2

No anti-vax stuff in this thread - it's to discuss the various vaccines available and how they are getting rolled out, as well as testing procedures

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Happydays2020

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Excellent numbers.

Interesting to note this morning as well that Pfizer have suspended exports to Israel as they haven't yet paid for the last 2 million doses

We will take them.

Happydays2020

dominatinMC wrote: »

Very interesting. A question from the uninitiated to some of the more informed posters on here, why then have all studies and reports related to vaccines focused so much on antibody response? T-cell response appears to be equally as important, but barely gets a mention - at least in the general reporting.

Headlines. Scaremongering. Ignorance. Keeping people on their toes.

adam240610

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1379015462437146624?s=19

Champagne Sally

adam240610 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1379015462437146624?s=19

They are excellent numbers!

VonLuck

Micky 32 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1378786655679692802?s=21

Would be interesting to see these plotted against percentage 1st / 2nd doses administered as well as level of restrictions during each period.

[Deleted User]

dominatinMC wrote: »

Very interesting. A question from the uninitiated to some of the more informed posters on here, why then have all studies and reports related to vaccines focused so much on antibody response? T-cell response appears to be equally as important, but barely gets a mention - at least in the general reporting.

Testing T-cells is neither easy nor cheap. It requires very specialised high-tech laboratory tests.

IRISHSPORTSGUY

adam240610 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/COVID19DataIE/status/1379015462437146624?s=19

Great numbers, however think we'll have very low numbers from Sat-Mon through a combination of the weekend factor and the Bank Holiday.

There was a lot of fury in France that they only vaccinated 60k people on Saturday, a few days after Macron gave his lockdown/ 'vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate!' speech.

Sanjuro

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

Great numbers, however think we'll have very low numbers from Sat-Mon through a combination of the weekend factor and the Bank Holiday.

There was a lot of fury in France that they only vaccinated 60k people on Saturday, a few days after Macron gave his lockdown/ 'vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate!' speech.

Not so sure about Saturday. Anecdotal, for sure, but my mam was at the Helix on Saturday getting hers. Said the place was rammed.

lbj666

VonLuck wrote: »

Would be interesting to see these plotted against percentage 1st / 2nd doses administered as well as level of restrictions during each period.

It's phenomenal what's happening there for just 60% vacined, but as an OP pointed out before there's is a bit of segrgation between jabbed and unjabbed in restaurants etc. so that's contributing to the R0 too.
Still it's well below 0.

Society is near open but a few big leaps yet to happen with mass gatherings etc.

snotboogie

Back of the envelope projections from me.

Vaccination looks to start to have an effect on transmission at around 30 days after 30 vaccines are administered per 100 people. This has held for the UK, UAE and Israel. Lots and lots of caveats here, most notably the level of infection, level of restrictions, how you administer the vaccine, (the effect in the UK was a lot faster because they are focusing on first doses) and how fast you administer the vaccine. Side note that cases in Chile and Bahrain are still rising 18 and 21 days respectively after they reached 30 per 100 people. Both are extensively using Chinese vaccines Sinovac and Sinopharm, however the UAE are also using Sinopharm and saw a drop almost immediately when they hit the 30 number. These will be two very interesting countries to watch in the next few weeks.

Assuming a vaccination rate in Ireland of 0.6 vaccines per 100 people per day in April, we should reach 30 does per 100 people around the 21st of April. I don't see any meaningful lifting of restrictions at this time but we should start to see the beginning of some downward pressure on overall cases driven by vaccination. Judging by our level of restrictions and infection, I think we are closer to the UK and Israel than we are to Chile and Bahrain.

The second big drop in Israel happened at 65 doses per 100 people. The UAE is the only other country to reach this landmark and also saw an appreciable drop. Ireland, assuming an average vaccination rate of 0.7 vaccines per 100 people per day in May, should reach the 65 landmark around the 3rd of June. I think at this point we will have seen significant downward pressure on cases and around the start of June we should see something resembling level 3 with a focus on outdoor socialising.

There was another less significant increase in the rate of the drop in cases in Israels unstoppable downward slope at around 80 cases per day. Assuming a rate of vaccination of 0.8 per day in June, we should reach this level on the 22nd of June. At this point, we will continue to see fewer cases and there will be pressure to relax more restrictions at the start of July.

At around 100 vaccines per 100, Israel had already effectively fully opened their society to those who had been vaccinated. Assuming that we are pushing 0.9 vaccines per day by the end of June we should see us reach 100 by the 15th of July. I think its very hard to predict how our government will open up at this stage, at worst I would expect a return to level 3 with fewer restrictions than last summer. At best we could fully open for those vaccinated. My guess is that we would be at something resembling level 2 for all people with retail and social distanced indoor dining returning.

At the next milestone of 120 vaccines per 100 people, we are flying blind as nowhere with a significant population has reached this milestone. Assuming we are vaccinating 1 person per 100 per day by the middle of July we should get to 120 vaccines per 100 people by around the 5th of August.

The next big milestone in my mind is 150 vaccines per 100 people. This is where you can start to think about herd immunity. Assuming we don't have trouble with vaccine hesitancy and there are no unforeseen supply issues, we should reach this point around the end of August. I think at this point we are at Level 1 where we have all restrictions removed, except for social distancing and mask wearing indoors, including a complete return to work for all who want to and a return to normal international travel with the EU, US, UK and Canada.

The last milestone is about 180 vaccines per 100 people. This is entire population who can be vaccinated being vaccinated, I'm assuming at this point all teenagers will be approved to be vaccinated and we will be left with the under 12's, pregnant women and some extremely vulnerable categories. Best case scenario, we reach this point at around the 25th of September. At this stage, supply should be no issue and it will be convincing people who are vaccine hesitant to take the shot. If we get to this point, I see a beginning of a slow phase out of social distancing and mask wearing as immunity takes hold. How fast this happens depends on government hesitancy but mostly I think on the experiences of other countries. The UK will be well ahead of us and I imagine we will follow their lead. Ireland play New Zealand on the 20th of November in the Aviva, optimistically I think we will see a full stadium with full pubs afterwards for that game.

I think the vaccination program will continue well into 2022. I imagine the vaccine will be approved for children by the end of the year and we will see a booster jab to deal with variants around the end of the year too. I think a total return to normal will be seen early in 2022, where we stop seeing domestic case numbers in the news and the covid focus will be on vaccinating the 3rd world. I think we see global vaccination finish around the end of 2022.

I posted this on the now closed "when will it all end thread" last week. Given the vaccine numbers over the past week an average of 0.6 per 100 per day does not look feasible in April. I revised this down to 0.5 people per 100 per day which puts us at around the 26th of April to hit 30 shots for every 100 people.

I predict we get to 65 shots per 100 by the 5th of June and 80 per 100 by the end of June. Worth noting that the UAE reached 80 shots per 100 on the 27th of March and are still seeing 215 cases per million per day. Now they have society very much open but this seems to be a case level that NPHET and the government would be uncomfortable with. Israel really only started to see numbers dwindle towards low double figures per million after they reached 100 shots per 100 people. I predict we get to that level by the end of July.

Hungary and Qatar both got to 30 shots per 100 in the last week. Hungary which had over 800 cases per million per day, has seen its number plummet. Qatar which started from a lower lever of just over 200 per 100 hasn't really seen any impact. Uruguay, who are vaccinating over 1 per 100 per day at the moment, will be the next country to get to the 30 per 100 mark, probably by next Sunday. They have nearly 900 cases per million per day so will be interesting to watch. They should start to see a similar drop to Hungary soon.

Chile and Bahrain, who I said would be interesting to watch are both still seeing surging cases as they get to the 30 days post 30 shots per 100 mark. It will be very interesting to see when these countries turn a corner.

Martina1991

JTMan wrote: »

The UK are to give twice-weekly tests to everyone in England from Friday. The BBC reports here.

Non-essential retail, Gyms, pubs (outdoor), restaurants (outdoor) and more reopen on Monday 12 April and this measure is to support this.

Boris is going to announce details of the Covid passport for mass audience events today too.

Smart moves.

It isn't smart at all. The evidence that the antigen tests they are using are effective against identifying infectious cases is very weak.

They use a lateral flow test made by Innova.
Innova is made in the USA but isn't even used there because it didn't reach the FDA’s stated requirements of 80% sensitivity & 99% specificity for home tests available by prescription. These requirements prevent lower performing tests from entering the market.

Mass testing with antigen tests is not a good idea. That is not what they were made for. To do this at such a scale is a waste of money for the number of cases it'll detect.
The UK have spent £1.7 billion on Innova tests to date.

They bought millions of them when they were trialling them in Liverpool and Birmingham and the data was quite poor but they went with them anyway. The only data on the accuracy of Innova for mass testing is from 70 cases - and it only found 28 . Its crazy.

The UK got nearly everything wrong when it comes to testing. But they've turned it around with their vaccinations.

Probes

stephenjmcd wrote: »

That's bringing in the South African study into that, the issues with that study have been discussed here over and over. Further study is needed, but the all important T cell reposne looks very good in trials

Paper and full thread,
https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1370378272282980352?s=19

My extremely limited understanding is that t-cells aren’t quick enough to stop an infection, so at that point it won’t reduce transmission which could be problematic for vulnerable and older people. I think most of us will probably be getting a booster for variants before the year is out.

JPup

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Thanks for this. Would you know if we get much notice to get the vaccine? Would like to take a few days off and take things easy in case I get side effects.

Most people don’t have significant side effects so booking time of work is probably unnecessary. In the unlikely event that you can’t work for a couple of days after, I think that should fall under regular sick leave.

Micky 32

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1379033619575021570?s=21

hynesie08

Sanjuro wrote: »

Not so sure about Saturday. Anecdotal, for sure, but my mam was at the Helix on Saturday getting hers. Said the place was rammed.

The helix apparently did over 4000 on Saturday.

eagle eye

JPup wrote:

Most people donâ€™t have significant side effects so booking time of work is probably unnecessary. In the unlikely event that you canâ€™t work for a couple of days after, I think that should fall under regular sick leave.

If your employer has decided that you cannot work without a vaccine in a couple of months time then any sick leave due to it should be covid related and not regular sick leave.

Stoolie

Tested in Cork yesterday around 12 noon. Close contact ! No symptoms. Any idea how long I'll be waiting for result ? ??

eagle eye

Stoolie wrote:

Tested in Cork yesterday around 12 noon. Close contact ! No symptoms. Any idea how long I'll be waiting for result ? ??

You should get it in the next couple of hours.

GeorgeBailey

hynesie08 wrote: »

The helix apparently did over 4000 on Saturday.

That can't be possible. Ireland/HSE/vaccine rollout is a SHAMBLES remember.

eagle eye

GeorgeBailey wrote:

That can't be possible. Ireland/HSE/vaccine rollout is a SHAMBLES remember.

It is possible and it doesn't mean the HSE isn't a shambles.

hynesie08

GeorgeBailey wrote: »

That can't be possible. Ireland/HSE/vaccine rollout is a SHAMBLES remember.

I know, we should leave it to the private hospitals, they'll get the job done......

namloc1980

What are the chances the government will cave in to teachers demands to be prioritised for vaccines?

.

Stoolie

eagle eye wrote: »

You should get it in the next couple of hours.

Thanks . A buddy was tested at 4 yesterday and got results earlier. Negative thank God. Could this mean bad news for me ? Sorry , but am sh***ting it !

stephenjmcd

namloc1980 wrote: »

What are the chances the government will cave in to teachers demands to be prioritised for vaccines?

.

None..

It essentially amounts to blackmail.

If they want to strike let them, it's age based, those teachers at risk with a serious underlying condition will be getting them now or quite soon, the rest will also follow soon after.

Like everyone else they can wait their turn

Chris_5339762

dominatinMC wrote: »

Very interesting. A question from the uninitiated to some of the more informed posters on here, why then have all studies and reports related to vaccines focused so much on antibody response? T-cell response appears to be equally as important, but barely gets a mention - at least in the general reporting.

Its easy to test, I guess. T-cells are much, much harder to test and to be honest, really aren't as well understood as the humble antibody.

Sanjuro

What is the daily vaccination capacity for the larger centres out of interest?

[Deleted User]

Teachers should be vaccinated asap. So should anyone working in an environment where they are mingling with a lot of others. Plus add in the factor that students will not be vaccinated, which makes it makes even more sense to get them jabs asap.

[Deleted User]

namloc1980 wrote: »

What are the chances the government will cave in to teachers demands to be prioritised for vaccines?

.

Hopefully not.

Twenty and thirty year old teachers are absoloutely livid that 60 year olds are going to be vaccinated before them. I actually feel sick even listening to them. Tony Holihan has alot to answer for. In that first list he approved he actually wanted 18 year olds vaccinated before 54 year olds. He also mentioned teachers. His fingerprints are also over why all over 70s are not vaccinated yet by limiting them to pfzier moderna.What we should have done is cut and paste what uk were doing. They look in complete control. I hope tony holihan is gone for good. He made pigs ear of vaccination decisions.

[Deleted User]

You'll never please everyone though. Probably why they've gone the age route. Limit the moaning. Can't blame them.

Leftwaffe

namloc1980 wrote: »

What are the chances the government will cave in to teachers demands to be prioritised for vaccines?

.

A discussion for another thread but I’m a teacher and I don’t agree with this motion at all. Age based vaccination is the best. I’m an ASTI member and won’t be voting to strike over this. Union in the wrong, again!