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COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

Beasty

Thread 1
Thread 2

No anti-vax stuff in this thread - it's to discuss the various vaccines available and how they are getting rolled out, as well as testing procedures

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ACitizenErased

Census 2019 had 696000 total over 65s. There's no way there's 500k 65-69 year olds.

Apogee

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

I think we are expecting 1.3 million per month as follows:

Pfizer: 2.2 million
Moderna: 0.39 million
J&H: 0.6 million
AZ: 0.77 million
Total = 3.96 million for Q2

This is based on 1.1% of the Q2 deliveries as per Ursula Von Leyden's tweet of 25th March. It allows for AZ falling well below their original planned deliveries.

Of course, you'd have to have some doubts that AZ and J&J will deliver in full

Brian MacCraith previously mentioned "over 1m per month" expected in Q2 with total deliveries reaching 3.8M which fits with above.

Champagne Sally

At the end of the day we have an adult population of 3.7million so even though these cohorts seem to be "growing" it will mean the lower cohorts will have less numbers so it will start to move very quick I would reckon once these first 6 cohorts are finished. The mass vaccination centres will help enormously, providing we have supplies obviously.

Stark

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Census 2019 had 696000 total over 65s. There's no way there's 500k 65-69 year olds.

Census 2016 had 426k over-70s. So probably around 270k (give or take a few thousand for demographic changes in the last few years) for all 65-69 year olds (not just high risk).

Oh well, as long as they're getting vaccines into people's arms, it doesn't really matter if their size estimates for the individual groups are right or not.

[Deleted User]

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Census 2019 had 696000 total over 65s. There's no way there's 500k 65-69 year olds.

Seems very large alright, based on older figures, 65-69 make up about 33% of the over 65s total, so that would put that group at 230,000, maybe 250,000. You would also expect a chunk of these to be done in the cohort 4 group.

[Deleted User]

is_that_so wrote: »

As I've said nobody has a clue of numbers!

You'd expect the HSE lead to have a better idea.

Bubbaclaus

irishlad. wrote: »

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1376466240248688643

Is this another case of Bowers failing to sense check his tweets? There are not 500k 65-69 year olds in Ireland, never mind high risk ones.

Strazdas

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

I think we are expecting 1.3 million per month as follows:

Pfizer: 2.2 million
Moderna: 0.39 million
J&H: 0.6 million
AZ: 0.77 million
Total = 3.96 million for Q2

This is based on 1.1% of the Q2 deliveries as per Ursula Von Leyden's tweet of 25th March. It allows for AZ falling well below their original planned deliveries.

Of course, you'd have to have some doubts that AZ and J&J will deliver in full

A stat I heard mentioned is that AZ might deliver as many as 200,000 doses in the next fortnight (starting this week)....linked in to the Irish Times story alluding to a big increase from them.

charlie14

Lucas Hood wrote: »

That is not what the article said at all.
The Headline said "Ireland could get millions of Covid vaccines from Britain in August"

They seem to have made an assumption that once UK adults have got an offer of a 1st dose by end of July they'll send some to Ireland.
Also the Easter quote came from a "cabinet source"

Todays article

The original article was nothing other than one of the supposedly "quality" British newspapers blatantly pushing this present Tory government line of everything Brexit good- everything EU bad.

Even the most rudimentary back of an envelope figures check would have shown them how ridiculous it was had they been bothered to do so.
What the Times did showed a complete lack of journalistic and editorial integrity. Simple as.

Tommy O Gorman in his interview with Arlene Foster shown on RTE last night was no better. He let her waffle away unchallenged doing the same.

eoinbn

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

I think we are expecting 1.3 million per month as follows:

Pfizer: 2.2 million
Moderna: 0.39 million
J&H: 0.6 million
AZ: 0.77 million
Total = 3.96 million for Q2

This is based on 1.1% of the Q2 deliveries as per Ursula Von Leyden's tweet of 25th March. It allows for AZ falling well below their original planned deliveries.

Of course, you'd have to have some doubts that AZ and J&J will deliver in full

We might get 3.8m in Q2 but they wont be evenly spread over the 3 months. They will be back loaded, like in Q1.
Expected something like 950k + 1250k + 1600k.

Can we just ban Bowers tweets from the thread... We don't even need to fact check this one to know it is false.

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

You'd expect the HSE lead to have a better idea.

Maybe, but they are all just estimates apart from say what 70% of the population looks like. Many of these numbers are just not tabulated regularly enough to say they are factual. It may help with planning and managing expectations but hard to say how reliable they are.

is_that_so

Strazdas wrote: »

A stat I heard mentioned is that AZ might deliver as many as 200,000 doses in the next fortnight (starting this week)....linked in to the Irish Times story alluding to a big increase from them.

Yep AZ are doing the alluding!

acer911

Champagne Sally wrote: »

At the end of the day we have an adult population of 3.7million so even though these cohorts seem to be "growing" it will mean the lower cohorts will have less numbers so it will start to move very quick I would reckon once these first 6 cohorts are finished. The mass vaccination centres will help enormously, providing we have supplies obviously.

What % of the adult population will refuse a vaccination? I would think around 10% at least, I have seen a number of 6% floating around, if it was 10, then there are only approximately 3.33m adults who will get vaccinated, at 6% it would be 3.48m.

CrabRevolution

Deleted User wrote: »

You'd expect the HSE lead to have a better idea.

In fairness we've seen plenty in this very thread saying "I have a high BMI/asthma/diabetes etc. but my GP doesn't know/ I haven't seen a doctor in years/ I was treated in the UK etc. how can I get the vaccine". For all their claims of knowing their patients better and being close to the community, I'd say the first contact a lot of GPs are having with some patients in years is when they ring asking why they haven't been contacted about a vaccine.

ImDave

Deleted User wrote: »

Seems very large alright, based on older figures, 65-69 make up about 33% of the over 65s total, so that would put that group at 230,000, maybe 250,000. You would also expect a chunk of these to be done in the cohort 4 group.

Yep, according to 2016 figures from CSO stats database, there are 211,236 people in the 65-69 age group.

[Deleted User]

CrabRevolution wrote: »

In fairness we've seen plenty in this very thread saying "I have a high BMI/asthma/diabetes etc. but my GP doesn't know/ I haven't seen a doctor in years/ I was treated in the UK etc. how can I get the vaccine". For all their claims of knowing their patients better and being close to the community, I'd say the first contact a lot of GPs are having with some patients in years is when they ring asking why they haven't been contacted about a vaccine.

Yep that's fair enough, some of it is a bit "how long is a piece of string" and I wouldn't expect very accurate figures, just best estimates.

In terms of simple age cohorts though, the CSO do great work and accurate figures are readily available from them.

This pandemic has shone a light on so many glaring deficiencies in our Health Service, centralised databases need to be established so in the future high risk people can be identified in a few clicks. It seems identifying these groups is highly manual work, and as such is causing a fair bit of anxiety I feel.

stephenjmcd

Another study on the impact of vaccination
https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1376512138710245379?s=20

Van.Bosch

The cohorts to keep growing but as someone said, the target is fixed, it just means the lower cohorts will need less.

I think from an optics point of view progress would look better if c1 & 2 were finished first doses etc and we were into 5&6 but that’s just optics.

Wolf359f

Van.Bosch wrote: »

The cohorts to keep growing but as someone said, the target is fixed, it just means the lower cohorts will need less.

I think from an optics point of view progress would look better if c1 & 2 were finished first doses etc and we were into 5&6 but that’s just optics.

Cohort 1 should be finished this week I believe.
Obviously there could be some stragglers that were late getting dose 1, so have to wait the 3-4 weeks.
But it will be nice when we finally get a full cohort fully protected.

astrofool

Van.Bosch wrote: »

The cohorts to keep growing but as someone said, the target is fixed, it just means the lower cohorts will need less.

I think from an optics point of view progress would look better if c1 & 2 were finished first doses etc and we were into 5&6 but that’s just optics.

Cohort 4 was defined so ambiguously that it's grown very quickly, also it's very hard to tell someone that they're not at risk vs. who should be in cohort 4, so there's probably a lot of "should be cohort 7" now being vaccinated.

Skygord

Wolf359f wrote: »

Cohort 1 should be finished this week I believe.
Obviously there could be some stragglers that were late getting dose 1, so have to wait the 3-4 weeks.
But it will be nice when we finally get a full cohort fully protected.

According to the HSE tracker, every day there are still 1st doses being given to cohort 1 !

Also summarised by someone here:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cUZy6AMCwuA2zhtRuKK7cqMVgmhdDsGsZrFWJTkw9DY/edit#gid=1219026690

Azatadine

Little bit of a tangent but it's so encouraging to see what the adaptation of the mRNA technology will potentially bring in the future!

https://interestingengineering.com/biontech-moderna-to-use-covid-vaccine-tech-for-other-treatments

Skygord

Skygord wrote: »

Wife is cohort 4, getting vaccinated today with AZ.

She got a text last Tuesday from her hospital (private one) asking her agreement to share her medical data with the HSE. Just text back yes or no.

On Friday she got a text saying to come for the vaccine on Monday. Confirm by texting back yes or no.

Delighted, as she has several conditions that put her in cohort 4.

p.s. oh and when I went to get bread and milk this morning I saw an HSE cold chain van - the delight in seeing it was like a kid seeing the 1st ice cream van of the Summer!

She was vaccinated in the Ballybrit (Galway Racecourse) MVC (hospital doing their cohort 4 using the MVC). She said it was very efficient, in and out in 30 mins, including the 15 min wait time after the jab :-)

marno21

Skygord wrote: »

According to the HSE tracker, every day there are still 1st doses being given to cohort 1 !

Also summarised by someone here:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cUZy6AMCwuA2zhtRuKK7cqMVgmhdDsGsZrFWJTkw9DY/edit#gid=1219026690

Hardly surprising though. Nursing homes/LTRC centres aren’t closed systems and there are new residents/staff coming in all the time.

Van.Bosch

marno21 wrote: »

Hardly surprising though. Nursing homes/LTRC centres aren’t closed systems and there are new residents/staff coming in all the time.

Yeah and outbreaks which delayed some spots etc. In reality that cohort will always have a few new residents each week but ideally they would have been vaccinated as part of other groups.

crossman47

Deleted User wrote: »

This pandemic has shone a light on so many glaring deficiencies in our Health Service, centralised databases need to be established so in the future high risk people can be identified in a few clicks. It seems identifying these groups is highly manual work, and as such is causing a fair bit of anxiety I feel.

They should be but the lack of a unique personal identifier is a huge drawback. The civil liberties people object (see the PPSN debate) but surely now everyone sees the merit of a unique number used for all transactions with government. Without it you will never get a proper database of the type you mention.

IRISHSPORTSGUY

Any news today about when the EU will distribute the Halix doses?

Wolf359f

marno21 wrote: »

Hardly surprising though. Nursing homes/LTRC centres aren’t closed systems and there are new residents/staff coming in all the time.

There was also a large adjustment down of the figures, obviously assigning those jabs to a different cohort, possibly cohort 2.

Never actually thought of new residents and staff.

dominatinMC

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Another study on the impact of vaccination
https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1376512138710245379?s=20

With all the emerging evidence suggesting that vaccination significantly reduces (if not actually prevents) transmission, how come we are not seeing any conclusive reports - similar to those for efficacy? Apart from the one linked above, I haven't seen too many. The media at large seem very reluctant to report on transmission effects, which doesn't really surprise me at all, but a lot of eminent scientists are also wary of pronouncing anything. Is it simply a case that it takes a long time to gather the required data to prove reduced transmission?

astrofool

dominatinMC wrote: »

With all the emerging evidence suggesting that vaccination significantly reduces (if not actually prevents) transmission, how come we are not seeing any conclusive reports - similar to those for efficacy? Apart from the one linked above, I haven't seen too many. The media at large seem very reluctant to report on transmission effects, which doesn't really surprise me at all, but a lot of eminent scientists are also wary of pronouncing anything. Is it simply a case that it takes a long time to gather the required data to prove reduced transmission?

It takes a large number being vaccinated to start bringing the transmission rates down, most of the initial elderly cohorts wouldn't have been big transmission vectors anyway, so the best stats really come from healthcare workers. The big question is what vaccinated % leads to a consistent low R number, which would then lead to eradication of the virus. This data has been mixed in with the ongoing lockdowns anyway, so hard to give an accurate scientific picture.