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COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

Beasty

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Thread 2

No anti-vax stuff in this thread - it's to discuss the various vaccines available and how they are getting rolled out, as well as testing procedures

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JTMan

Approx. 16% of Irish people either "could not be bothered" or are "not sure" if they will get a vaccine.

Israel incentivise with free beers and pizza.

Can we do something similar?

Free donuts?! Or mandatory for employees to give free time off for staff to get vaccines? Can the government add 1 day / two half days per person as additional leave this year?

https://twitter.com/KarlBrophy/status/1374010877024821251?s=19

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1374013380210659329?s=19

bennyineire

JTMan wrote: »

Approx. 16% of Irish people either "could not be bothered" or are "not sure" if they will get a vaccine.

Israel incentivise with free beers and pizza.

Can we do something similar?

Free donuts?! Or mandatory for employees to give free time off for staff to get vaccines? Can the government add 1 day / two half days per person as additional leave this year?

https://twitter.com/KarlBrophy/status/1374010877024821251?s=19

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1374013380210659329?s=19

We only need 70-80% vaccinated for herd immunity

JTMan

bennyineire wrote: »

We only need 70-80% vaccinated for herd immunity

6% say they will not get a vaccine under any circumstances.
16% are "not sure" or "cannot be bothered"
24% are aged 15 or younger and cannot get a vaccine until a later stage.

Well in excess of herd immunity for the moment.

We need to add incentives to get the "not sure" group out for a vaccine.

iamwhoiam

odyssey06 wrote: »

Yes but if the corticosteroids are taken via inhalers they may not be considered 'systemic' as far as I can tell - from the limited info available.

Systemic corticosteroids refer to corticosteroids that are given orally or by injection and distribute throughout the body. It does not include corticosteroids used in the eyes, ears, or nose, on the skin or that are inhaled, although small amounts of these corticosteroids can be absorbed into the body.

https://www.medicinenet.com/corticosteroids-oral/article.htm

And from the HSE site

Chronic respiratory disease
Other chronic respiratory disease, for example: stable cystic fibrosis, severe asthma (continuous or repeated use of systemic corticosteroids), moderate COPD.

landofthetree

JTMan wrote: »

Approx. 16% of Irish people either "could not be bothered" or are "not sure" if they will get a vaccine.

Israel incentivise with free beers and pizza.

Can we do something similar?

Free donuts?! Or mandatory for employees to give free time off for staff to get vaccines? Can the government add 1 day / two half days per person as additional leave this year?

https://twitter.com/KarlBrophy/status/1374010877024821251?s=19

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1374013380210659329?s=19

When they can't go off to Spain for a week without it they will change their minds.

mackD

So my father was on the phone to his chemist this morning about renewing one of his prescriptions when she bought up the vaccine and enquired due to his age if he had been contacted yet. My father said he hasn’t heard a a word and she urged him to contact his doctor.
My father called the doctor and got through to his secretary;

Father: Hello, I’m wondering if the 75-79 age group have started this week.

Secretary: No.

Father: Oh ok, I suppose it will be next week..

Secretary: You will be contacted when it is your turn. Bye

While I understand that they are being inundated with calls about this, a little bit of compassion and professionalism wouldn’t go astray to help put the minds of the elderly (and their families) at ease.

timsey tiger

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Well for the Pfizer vaccine we are importing ingredients and component parts from 19 different non EU countries.

USA have fully domestic supply chains. I believe we have a fully EU supply chain for the Astra Zenaca vaccine.

So there's worries that if we stop AZ exporting Britain will ban Pfizer from exporting items in the supply chain to us.

We need to make sure we are only targeting vaccines we have contracts to buy that haven't been delivered so we look more reasonable.

We bought these. You aren't importing it. Your stealing the product we bought.

They'd hardly do that since they'd be cutting off their own pfizer supply.

is_that_so

mackD wrote: »

So my father was on the phone to his chemist this morning about renewing one of his prescriptions when she bought up the vaccine and enquired due to his age if he had been contacted yet. My father said he hasn’t heard a a word and she urged him to contact his doctor.
My father called the doctor and got through to his secretary;

Father: Hello, I’m wondering if the 75-79 age group have started this week.

Secretary: No.

Father: Oh ok, I suppose it will be next week..

Secretary: You will be contacted when it is your turn. Bye

While I understand that they are being inundated with calls about this, a little bit of compassion and professionalism wouldn’t go astray to help put the minds of the elderly (and their families) at ease.

They genuinely may not know and that's about all that's missing from this exchange.

rameire

mackD wrote: »

So my father was on the phone to his chemist this morning about renewing one of his prescriptions when she bought up the vaccine and enquired due to his age if he had been contacted yet. My father said he hasn’t heard a a word and she urged him to contact his doctor.
My father called the doctor and got through to his secretary;

Father: Hello, I’m wondering if the 75-79 age group have started this week.

Secretary: No.

Father: Oh ok, I suppose it will be next week..

Secretary: You will be contacted when it is your turn. Bye

While I understand that they are being inundated with calls about this, a little bit of compassion and professionalism wouldn’t go astray to help put the minds of the elderly (and their families) at ease.

He should ring up again and ask have they started the over 80's.
That might get them into a conversation where they may be able to answer more thoroughly.

namloc1980

mackD wrote: »

So my father was on the phone to his chemist this morning about renewing one of his prescriptions when she bought up the vaccine and enquired due to his age if he had been contacted yet. My father said he hasn’t heard a a word and she urged him to contact his doctor.
My father called the doctor and got through to his secretary;

Father: Hello, I’m wondering if the 75-79 age group have started this week.

Secretary: No.

Father: Oh ok, I suppose it will be next week..

Secretary: You will be contacted when it is your turn. Bye

While I understand that they are being inundated with calls about this, a little bit of compassion and professionalism wouldn’t go astray to help put the minds of the elderly (and their families) at ease.

That's mad. My dad is in that age cohort (75-79) and he is due his second Pfizer shot on the 30th March (he got his first shot on the 2nd March). I'm shocked that your father hasn't even got a date for his first shot.

astrofool

mackD wrote: »

So my father was on the phone to his chemist this morning about renewing one of his prescriptions when she bought up the vaccine and enquired due to his age if he had been contacted yet. My father said he hasn’t heard a a word and she urged him to contact his doctor.
My father called the doctor and got through to his secretary;

Father: Hello, I’m wondering if the 75-79 age group have started this week.

Secretary: No.

Father: Oh ok, I suppose it will be next week..

Secretary: You will be contacted when it is your turn. Bye

While I understand that they are being inundated with calls about this, a little bit of compassion and professionalism wouldn’t go astray to help put the minds of the elderly (and their families) at ease.

I'd imagine their priority is to keep the phone lines clear, it's an adult speaking to an adult, he doesn't need any hand holding. I can only imagine the number of "cute hoors" trying to ring through each day to get a jump on the priority list.

ixoy

astrofool wrote: »

I can only imagine the number of "cute hoors" trying to ring through each day to get a jump on the priority list.

Spoke to a GP and they're flooded with calls from people looking to get bookings despite not being in the 70+ or having a severe medical condition.

Deeper Blue

JTMan wrote: »

6% say they will not get a vaccine under any circumstances.
16% are "not sure" or "cannot be bothered"
24% are aged 15 or younger and cannot get a vaccine until a later stage.

Well in excess of herd immunity for the moment.

We need to add incentives to get the "not sure" group out for a vaccine.

All that is assuming that there's no immunity whatsoever from past infection, when we know that there's a significant amount. That should make a dent in the herd immunity threshold also, even if it's a relatively small one.

JacksonHeightsOwn

We all know the Russian vaccine is a full on propaganda arm for putin to beat people up.

But the time for swallowing your pride has passed. There's literally no excuse for the government to not get in contact with them about getting an other of sputnik

For once, just grow a pair of stones and put Ireland first.

timsey tiger

Azatadine wrote: »

This is interesting too.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/life-saving-nose-spray-that-kills-99-9-of-viruses-begins-production-in-israel/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Kind of sounds like they took Trumps suggestion of getting disinfectant inside the body and ran with it, I'm sure he'd say that's what he ment. It appears from the article that, it kills viruses in a test tube, but they haven't tested it in actual people. Rushing to market a bit early, by the sounds of it.

is_that_so

chrisbonnie wrote: »

We all know the Russian vaccine is a full on propaganda arm for putin to beat people up.

But the time for swallowing your pride has passed. There's literally no excuse for the government to not get in contact with them about getting an other of sputnik

For once, just grow a pair of stones and put Ireland first.

Which they may do if and when the EMA approve it but there's no way an unapproved vaccine will be used here.

timsey tiger

chrisbonnie wrote: »

We all know the Russian vaccine is a full on propaganda arm for putin to beat people up.

But the time for swallowing your pride has passed. There's literally no excuse for the government to not get in contact with them about getting an other of sputnik

For once, just grow a pair of stones and put Ireland first.

Yeah for a token delivery of 5,000 doses now and the rest the tail end of 2023.

You said it your self, it's complete bs, but lets fall for it anyway. We'd be wasting our time it would be AZ all over again times 10.

Str8outtaWuhan

1 dead 520 new cases

JacksonHeightsOwn

is_that_so wrote: »

Which they may do if and when the EMA approve it but there's no way an unapproved vaccine will be used here.

But that's the argument, why do we constantly have to wait for somebody to make our decisions for us? Just get on the phone and see if its even possible.

Screw the ema approval, if it's been approved in loads of other countries, then chances are it's perfectly safe, so it will be approved anyway, try and be proactive for once

is_that_so

So anyone for a vaccine and a Krispy Kreme?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/krispy-kreme-free-doughnut-every-day-2021-covid-19-vaccination-card

obi604

Question for ye, let’s say a person has got the 2 vaccines.

On Paper they should not get the virus.

My question is, can they still pass it on?

e.g. when my mother gets fully vaccinated, she should be relatively free to go out and about BUT can she still get it and pass it on to me?

landofthetree

https://twitter.com/H_Rossman/status/1373932554261303296

https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1373876560030208006

odyssey06

obi604 wrote: »

Question for ye, let’s say a person has got the 2 vaccines.
On Paper they should not get the virus.
My question is, can they still pass it on?
e.g. when my mother gets fully vaccinated, she should be relatively free to go out and about BUT can she still get it and pass it on to me?

She can still get it (i.e. symptoms) and pass it onto you.
She can be exposed to it, not get symptoms and pass it onto you.
The vaccines aren't 100% effective at either.

They can still get the virus eg Pfizer is 95% effective at preventing symptoms.
Asymptomatic people can still transmit the virus though likely with less viral load \ less window of shedding.
So you're looking at a very large reduction in the likelihood of transmission, but still possible.

seamus

chrisbonnie wrote: »

But that's the argument, why do we constantly have to wait for somebody to make our decisions for us? Just get on the phone and see if its even possible.

Screw the ema approval, if it's been approved in loads of other countries, then chances are it's perfectly safe, so it will be approved anyway, try and be proactive for once

Why bother having an approval process at all then sure? Just wait for a few other countries to approve things and then go ahead, shure what's the worst that could happen?

This is all wind-up bull from Russia anyway. They want to make it look like Governments are refusing a vaccine, so that it may destabilise the country. They don't even have enough to vaccinate their own population, never mind the rest of us.

I don't think they realise that Irish people don't trust the Russian government and most wouldn't take Sputnik if it was offered.

Dressoutlet

obi604 wrote: »

Question for ye, let’s say a person has got the 2 vaccines.

On Paper they should not get the virus.

My question is, can they still pass it on?

e.g. when my mother gets fully vaccinated, she should be relatively free to go out and about BUT can she still get it and pass it on to me?

If she has symptoms then yes she could pass it on. However if she's a close contact and dosnt have symptoms then no, she won't pass it on. That is going by the CDC advice that fully vaccinated people do not have to isolate or be tested if they are exposed (close contact) unless they have symptoms

odyssey06

Dressoutlet wrote: »

If she has symptoms then yes she could pass it on. However if she's a close contact and dosnt have symptoms then no, she won't pass it on. That is going by the CDC advice that fully vaccinated people do not have to isolate or be tested if they are exposed (close contact) unless they have symptoms

The advice is a bit more nuanced which suggests transmission still a possibility eg
Wear masks, practice physical distancing, and adhere to other prevention measures when visiting with unvaccinated people who are at increased risk for severe COVID-19 disease or who have an unvaccinated household member who is at increased risk for severe COVID-19 disease
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated-guidance.html

Dressoutlet

odyssey06 wrote: »

The advice is a bit more nuanced which suggests transmission still a possibility eg
Wear masks, practice physical distancing, and adhere to other prevention measures when visiting with unvaccinated people who are at increased risk for severe COVID-19 disease or who have an unvaccinated household member who is at increased risk for severe COVID-19 disease
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated-guidance.html

Yes but this is just precaution because there's no solid Data at this point. I would be very surprised if this didn't change in the next few months.

ShineOn7

Posters Hmmm and Hmmmzz in particular; I'd love your thoughts on this data

This post yesterday on Reddit Ireland re: the vaccines was excellent and should give even the most pessimistic some hope

It's received over 1450 upvotes so far. The equivalent of a Boards post getting 1450 Thanks

It's all clearly laid out. There's proper, credible sources linked to. And there's a TLDR at the start for those who haven't time to read it all

I've bolded some highlights for those who need to speed read

It's all worth your time though

TLDR; Over 70s should be finished with one dose by the end of the week beginning the 12th of April. 65-69 should begin getting theirs either that week or the week before.

Serious at risk group will all have their first vaccinations by the week ending the 11th of April. Government should have enough vaccines for 86% of our population to be fully vaccinated by the end of June thus the 80% with a first dose looks very realistic.

There’s been a lot of talk recently about how people don’t believe that the vaccination process is going to be ramped up and people confused about when they will have an opportunity to be vaccinated. I wanted to set a few things straight and perhaps convince people that things aren’t as bad as they might think.

Firstly, the boring stuff (warning, the whole post is quite boring). All my information comes directly from government data. I will be using a combination of the original Irish delivery schedule (a month outdated) as well as the Swedish vaccine schedule (linked below, updated weekly) as my sources. I will obviously adjust the Swedish figures for our population (divided by 2.08).

I will also be using data from the Danish scheduler to try and pinpoint potential weekly deliveries in March and April. I will not be using the Danish data to find out how many doses Ireland will receive as it is well known that Denmark gets a higher per capita amount of vaccines than Ireland and other EU countries (that’s a story for another day). I am also going to assume that we continue to administer pretty much all vaccines we get on a particular week (eg week 1) on the following week (eg week 2).

This is fairly consistent with the evidence we have so far (for example we received 93k vaccines on the week beginning the 1st of March and administered roughly 92k vaccines on the week starting the 8th of March)
So, thus far we received 758k vaccines up to last Sunday. In December we had 40k vaccines delivered. In January we had 166k. In February we saw 312k. In the first two weeks of March we received 238k (compared to 143k in the first two weeks of Feb).

We received 144,840 vaccines in the week starting the 8th of March. The highest before that was 94,620 in the week beginning the 15th of Feb and 93,330 for the week beginning the 1st of March. This is clear evidence of a ramp up and this will continue to get better. We are due 1.1 million vaccines by the end of March, this target is consistent with Swedish vaccine figures which are updated weekly (every Friday).

This means 342k in the last 2.5 weeks of the quarter, and average of 136,800 per week. But we are due 40k extra Pfizer due to a deal agreed last week with the EU so we are actually due something around 1.14 million in the quarter. Now, Paul Reid said today we got around 10k AZ this week. This is consistent with the Danes expecting around 14k. They expect this amount again next week (week starting the 22nd) with the vast majority of AZ coming in the last week (beginning 29th) and thus this would be administered on the week beginning the 5th of April. Moderna still owe us 60k vaccines this quarter also. We have been told to expect it towards the end of the month.

Judging by the Danish vaccine schedule we would be due this the week beginning the 22nd. Anyway I’m rambling through my points now, but you get the idea. Thus, below is the estimated vaccine administration for up to the end of April, basically estimated deliveries plus one week. For Moderna, half the doses delivered are kept back for second doses, while Pfizer and AZ are pretty much all given out.

Week 10 (completed already) : 617k

Week 11 (beginning 15th of March) : 60k (all Pfizer due to AZ cancelation) = 677k

Week 12 (22nd March) : 165k (75k Pfizer + 90k AZ, consisting of 80k in fridges due to pause and 10k deliveries) = 842k

Week 13 (29th March) : 125k (75K Pfizer + 30k Moderna + 10k AZ) = 967k

Week 14 (5th April) : 175k (75k Pfizer + 100k AZ) = 1.142 million

Week 15 (12th April) : 192k (140k Pfizer + 10k Moderna + 42k AZ) = 1.334 million

Week 16 (19th April) : 180k (140k Pfizer + 40k AZ) = 1.514 million

Week 17 (26th April) : 263k (140k Pfizer + 50k Moderna [20k first dose, 30k second dose] + 73k AZ) = 1.777 million

Week 18 (3rd May) : 349k (140k Pfizer + 209k AZ) = 2.126 million

Note that this does not include J&J deliveries in April which are projected to be around 100k. This gets us to 2.226 million vaccines delivered by the end of April. Per capita, by the Swedish vaccine schedule we should have 2.235 million, so this is roughly correct in terms of what each week should look like (especially when you add in the 20k Moderna doses that have been administered as first doses and will be slowly given out as second doses in the coming 4 weeks)

Now, what does that mean for each cohort? Well, I’m going to assume, other than second doses, cohorts 1 and 2 are finished (which is pretty much correct). Per the links below there are around 500k people over 70 and 700k people over 65 (thus 200k 65-69). There are 140k-150k people in cohort 4 (no source on this I just read it was around that number, feel free to correct). The 65-69 age cohort are due the AZ after the serious at risk group. Only 5k of these have been done so basically the next 150k AZ will be given to them.

This puts the 65-69 group starting on the week of the 5th of April or the week starting the 12th of April.

There are roughly 350k doses of mRNA vaccines that need to be given as second doses before the 18th of April. There are around 150k over 70s with one dose so this leaves around 350k yet to get a dose. This would have all over 70s getting a dose by the end of the week beginning the 12th of April (again this is consistent with the governments promise of all over 70s getting a jab by mid-April).

Cohorts 6 (which is small enough) and cohort 7 should thus begin somewhere around the 19th of April, if not the week earlier.
Again this is all kind of confusing but the general point is we have vaccines coming, and the programme will significantly ramp up in the coming weeks.

By the end of June we should have somewhere around 5.25 million 2 dose vaccines and 600k J&J (not including CureVac approval). This is enough to fully vaccinate 3.225 million people or 86% of the adult population. This includes 1.2 million AZ. If you exclude AZ (unreliable), we would still have enough to fully vaccinate 70% of our population by the end of Q2 (again, add at least a week for the vaccines to be administered)

Irish delivery schedule (published in February) https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/c4876-covid-19-resilience-and-recovery-2021-the-path-ahead/

Original vaccine schedule post https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/lr9t5o/vaccinations_in_ireland_as_of_21022021_total/gokiqll/

Swedish vaccination schedule (Deliveries): https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/statistik-och-analyser/prognos-av-vaccinleveranser/

Danish vaccination calendar: https://www.sst.dk/-/media/Udgivelser/2021/Corona/Vaccination/Kalender/Specificeret-vaccinationskalender-19032021.ashx?la=da&hash=DFDFB441004E2C313ED7724FCE2018DF26650DC9

Irish week 9 and 10 deliveries: https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1372150312316833798

Irish first two months deliveries: https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1367521128646852609/photo/1

Estimated over 70s breakdown: https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1366026746127130629

Ireland population demographics: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp7md/p7md/p7dgs/

stephenjmcd

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Posters Hmmm and Hmmmzz in particular; I'd love your thoughts on this data

This post yesterday on Reddit Ireland re: the vaccines was excellent and should give even the most pessimistic some hope

It's received over 1450 upvotes so far. The equivalent of a Boards post getting 1450 Thanks

It's all clearly laid out. There's proper, credible sources linked to. And there's a TLDR at the start for those who haven't time to read it all

I've bolded some highlights for those who need to speed read

It's all worth your time though

Posted here last night by another poster but all looks good providing supply chains hold up and that's the big variable

ShineOn7

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Posted here last night but all looks good providing supply chains hold up and that's the big variable

Cool. I didn't see that

I see the poster gave two outlooks with it. One with AZ and one with absolutely no more AZ

Probably for the best given how negligible AZ will be in helping the EU in getting out of this