COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

Sanjuro wrote: »

Sorry if this sounds a little confrontational, as its not what I'm trying to be. But how are you confident this will happen? I was quite confident that things would ramp up about a month ago, but recently I've become a bit more disillusioned with the constant AZ situation and seemingly constant number of shots being administered with no significant increase week on week. Things seem to have ground to a snail's pace. Am I reading the situation incorrectly? I certainly hope so.

Mostly through the huge capacity coming in stream with BioNTech who’ve basically both purchased their own facility from Novartis (750m dose capacity), the existing Pfizer capacity being enhanced and they’ve also assembled a consortium of Sanofi & 12 other companies including Novartis to increase capacity.

There’s more capacity coming on stream for Moderna via Lonza who manufactures for them.

Then you’ve Janssen / J&J which is a viral vector vaccine developed by Janssen in Belgium and they’re a far bigger operation than AstraZeneca.

Novavax is also due to arrive soon and you’ve a 3rd mRNA vaccine from CureVac, a second German biotech company who are tied up with Bayer for manufacturing.

What’s going on in the background at the moment is primarily a huge ramping up of the BioNTech/ Pfizer vaccine production capacity and that’s being done both by Pfizer which is a huge operation itself and a consortium of other companies bringing in capacity too.

A lot of this has been pot luck with which vaccines hit the market first & what capacity is there.

AstraZeneca’s bumps in supply aren’t helping at all.

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Yes I'm well aware of that, just wondering if those ranting would be happy for the EU to leave other countries short on vaccines.

Probably not. There’s an element of damned if you do and damned if you don’t.

The Tories and British tabloids will just pour the scorn on and whip it up one way or the other, but you’ll have elements of the population who will be furious if there’s no supply, yet equally furious if there’s control of exports.

You can’t win.

I suspect though, the majority will probably be far more annoyed by the supply being slow.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The EU got caught out by some simple game theory. Being all high-minded and going for solidarity only works when all parties are on board. Once the other party isn't on board you're only shooting yourself in the face by continuing on the path. The Brits made it perfectly clear by the middle of last year they were going on their own, I naively assumed the EU would factor that into their decision making and policy going forward but it looks like they didn't.

Going for solidarity works when you put an effective plan in place and deliver results.

Saying it's someone else's fault doesn't change results.

The EU States have more than enough capacity, researchers and facilities to deliver enough vaccines.

About 8 of the top 20 vaccine manufacturers in the world are from EU States, most of the major others have massive facilities across Europe.

Fail to plan, plan to fail.

It's purely down to will.

The EU is an also ran in vaccinations for the world. It had the resources to be a world leader in this crisis.

Sanjuro

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

Mostly through the huge capacity coming in stream with BioNTech who’ve basically both purchased their own facility from Novartis (750m dose capacity), the existing Pfizer capacity being enhanced and they’ve also assembled a consortium of Sanofi & 12 other companies including Novartis to increase capacity.

There’s more capacity coming on stream for Moderna via Lonza who manufactures for them.

Then you’ve Janssen / J&J which is a viral vector vaccine developed by Janssen in Belgium and they’re a far bigger operation than AstraZeneca.

Novavax is also due to arrive soon and you’ve a 3rd mRNA vaccine from CureVac, a second German biotech company who are tied up with Bayer for manufacturing.

What’s going on in the background at the moment is primarily a huge ramping up of the BioNTech/ Pfizer vaccine production capacity and that’s being done both by Pfizer which is a huge operation itself and a consortium of other companies bringing in capacity too.

A lot of this has been pot luck with which vaccines hit the market first & what capacity is there.

AstraZeneca’s bumps in supply aren’t helping at all.

Well that's told me! ðŸ˜„ Thank you for such a comprehensive answer.

EU based research has delivered the BioNTech vaccine, the CureVac vaccine and the Janssen vaccine.

There are multinational efforts involved in production but that’s just the reality of pharma and biopharma. All of them are multinationals.

If AstraZeneca’s acting primarily for the U.K. it’s surprising. It’s also a multinational with facilities in Europe and the USA and globally. It’s also a very international board and a French CEO. The company itself is also a product of a merger between Astra in Sweden & Zeneca which was the ICI pharmaceutical unit.

For a company like that to act in a nationalistic manner makes little sense to me.

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

EU based research has delivered the BioNTech vaccine, the CureVac vaccine and the Janssen vaccine.

There are multinational efforts involved in production but that’s just the reality of pharma and biopharma. All of them are multinationals.

If AstraZeneca’s acting primarily for the U.K. it’s surprising. It’s also a multinational with facilities in Europe and the USA and globally. It’s also a very international board and a French CEO. The company itself is also a product of a merger between Astra in Sweden & Zeneca which was the ICI pharmaceutical unit.

For a company like that to act in a nationalistic manner makes little sense to me.

That you imagine it is working in a nationalistic manner is strictly on you.

Danzy wrote: »

That you imagine it is working in a nationalistic manner is strictly on you.

And that you chose to read my post that way is strictly on you.

My point is that it seems absurd that they could be acting in such way. I’m not the one making that suggestion.

It looks to me more like they bit off a lot more than they can chew and in reality can’t meet an order the scale of the EU’s.

They need to be more transparent about what’s going on though. What’s driven all this has been the last minute announcements of short supplies that have happened several times now.

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

And that you chose to read my post that way is strictly on you.

My point is that it seems absurd that they could be acting in such way. I’m not the one making that suggestion.

It looks to me more like they bit off a lot more than they can chew and in reality can’t meet an order the scale of the EU’s.

They need to be more transparent about what’s going on though. What’s driven all this has been the last minute announcements of short supplies that have happened several times now.

Fair enough points.

Think we all agree that the vaccine rollout in the EU, regardless of has been diabolical.

My concern is post Covid, many of the countries most affected by the Eurozone debt and anameic growth crisis of the last 15 years have seen Tourism wiped out, a tenth of GDP and employment for many of them.

The attitude of, there will be plenty in mid Summer when such and such is approved is ignoring that the Summer will be over before restrictions end in much of Europe.

The damage that has done will make the last EuroZone bailouts look positively warm and fuzzy.

The failure to vaccinate is bigger than Brexit. The debt incurred so far across Europe and Britain is so insanely high that it no longer relates to economic reality.

Why people are so blaise about the vaccination crisis is stunning.

The EU could at most be ~40M further ahead than they are now, this would mean no vaccinations in Israel, and UK on about half their current vaccination rate, Canada would not even have started.

It does look like now the EU will start curbing those exports, I'm not sure that's the right approach, even if it means watching the UK crow about itself, it's all about getting the world vaccinated, and the EU exporting early, allows that to happen faster (especially for the most vulnerable).

As for Van-Tam today, I think everybody knows that any medicine can have side effects. However, for vaccines, you are generally giving them to otherwise healthy people, and in the younger age groups, want them to take the vaccine to protect someone other than themselves (vs. a small % chance of them having complications due to the disease), in those cases you want to be absolutely sure that there are no serious side effects, because if one is found, the entire vaccine rollout and getting to herd immunity is at risk. In the case of AZ there was a severe incident, followed by less severe incidents, that very likely had nothing to do with the vaccine, but it's better for the analysis to take place and verify that is the case. The advantage is that we can get the vaccine into the arms of many more people. Those crying out for vaccines to resume are those who will get the vaccine anyway, the absolute safety of vaccines with having no severe side effects must be assured for society to be properly protected.

US may be able to help by the summer

https://www.thejournal.ie/biden-martin-vaccines-5384269-Mar2021/?utm_source=shortlink

VDL getting tough today.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1372272776778776578

Allowing a few extra months of sausage rolls on the shelves of Northern Ireland supermarkets is a serious breach of trust and law, but blocking the export of vaccines paid for by others in good faith is absolutely fine though.

Wolf359f

brickster69 wrote: »

Allowing a few extra months of sausage rolls on the shelves of Northern Ireland supermarkets is a serious breach of trust and law, but blocking the export of vaccines paid for by others in good faith is absolutely fine though.

I'd assume international law trumps a legal contract.
The legal contract in question is between a non EU country and a non EU company, so doesn't really impact the EU.

brickster69 wrote: »

VDL getting tough today.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1372272776778776578

Day late and a Dollar short as the yanks say.

It's talk, no decisive action either way. No Push to increase supply for all, no Push to make contracts airtight, no Push to play hard ball with what is there.

Just another press release.

Would Ireland support an export ban that denies NI citizens vaccines from Europe ?

timsey tiger

brickster69 wrote: »

Would Ireland support an export ban that denies NI citizens vaccines from Europe ?

would NI demand its contracts be honoured to vaccinate healthy 20 year olds at the expense of 70 year olds in the South?

A bit pathetic really, especially when Pfizer and other makers rely on material from countries that would be blocked. Probably never thought about that yet.

Wolf359f

brickster69 wrote: »

A bit pathetic really, especially when Pfizer and other makers rely on material from countries that would be blocked. Probably never thought about that yet.

I believe the Marburg plant producing the Pfizer vaccine is self sufficient. I've no clue about J&J, AZ, well they can't seem to catch a break anyway.

brickster69 wrote: »

A bit pathetic really, especially when Pfizer and other makers rely on material from countries that would be blocked. Probably never thought about that yet.

UK doing the same and getting it's supply of materials. Nice to see the hypocrisy in full flow this evening.

Melanchthon

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

Novavax is also due to arrive soon and you’ve a 3rd mRNA vaccine from CureVac, a second German biotech company who are tied up with Bayer for manufacturing.

Sanjuro wrote: »

Well that's told me! ðŸ˜„ Thank you for such a comprehensive answer.

It's also a pretty optimistic answer. The EU doesn't have a contract with Novaxax (and yes I know talks happen but publicly traded companies don't tend to keep massively beneficial for their company orders quiet).

SnuggyBear

Anyone know when the 70s are expected to be finished now?

ACitizenErased

SnuggyBear wrote: »

Anyone know when the 70s are expected to be finished now?

Should be the same as previously suggested, sometime around end of april early may

Cork2021

Was on the absolute lash today, I drank 3 litres of water and 2 cans of Diet Coke (I’m fuçking mental) anyway some excellent news on the moderna vaccine below!!

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1372305758113644545?s=21

Melanchthon wrote: »

It's also a pretty optimistic answer. The EU doesn't have a contract with Novaxax (and yes I know talks happen but publicly traded companies don't tend to keep massively beneficial for their company orders quiet).

It seems that Novavax is already being planned for in the EU rollout, so someone knows more than we do.

I also don't think the "contracts" side of things factors in as much as people are making out, but it got blown up due to AZ (which seems to have all been debunked now anyway). Pfizer is going above and beyond it's contract, J&J and Moderna have been clear early on expected supply, and expectations are being managed appropriately, regardless of what their contract says.

eoinbn

Melanchthon wrote: »

It's also a pretty optimistic answer. The EU doesn't have a contract with Novaxax (and yes I know talks happen but publicly traded companies don't tend to keep massively beneficial for their company orders quiet).

Pure speculation here on my part... I have been wondering what has been delaying the finalising of that contract.
Could the threat to block vaccines be as much about Novavax as Pfizer? Blocking Pfizer is tricky as the UK needs second doses. Also the EU doesn't want to annoy it's biggest supplier.
Novavax has UK plants and EU based plants. Could the UK a contract saying they can get supplies from the EU plants but won't export any, just like with AZ? Maybe the EU are balling hardball with Novavax trying to get early supplies as their is no point signing a contract for Q3 and threatening to block exports if they don't agree.

I just don't understand why UVL is threatening to block supplies of Pfizer now - what has changed recently? Is it the AZ supply reduction or is something else at play?