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COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

Beasty

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Thread 2

No anti-vax stuff in this thread - it's to discuss the various vaccines available and how they are getting rolled out, as well as testing procedures

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KrustyUCC

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

Is the MTU (CIT) location opening then or at a later date?

Already open

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40234868.html

ACitizenErased

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

Is the MTU (CIT) location opening then or at a later date?

operating since early last week

trellheim

heres the numbers I was working from
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eu7i-TqXIAArZuF?format=jpg&name=medium

is_that_so

trellheim wrote: »

heres the numbers I was working from
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eu7i-TqXIAArZuF?format=jpg&name=medium

Good to see that tabulated. So, are we really only looking at 60% done by June?

Russman

pc7 wrote: »

God I hope the government get this right and hit the targets when the big doses start arriving, finding the last few days tough, really need some light at the end of that tunnel.

There IS light at the end of the tunnel. Its a couple of months away yet, but its coming, and soon.

stephenjmcd

trellheim wrote: »

heres the numbers I was working from
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eu7i-TqXIAArZuF?format=jpg&name=medium

Your supply forecast looks a little off, updated forecast below from last week

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1364280979267981312?s=19

josip

is_that_so wrote: »

Good to see that tabulated. So, are we really only looking at 60% done by June?

60% of total population, which is probably over 90% of the adult population who both can and want to get vaccinated.

is_that_so

josip wrote: »

60% of total population, which is probably over 90% of the adult population who both can and want to get vaccinated.

No, 60% of the adult population based on that table. I think 80% vaccinated is a great target but getting there by the promised date is a lot tougher. I reckon it will be more like 70% even if those updated expected supplies happen.

Champagne Sally

I wonder will they arrange by age when it comes to the 18 to 54 cohort. Purely selfish of me of course because I'm 54. Obviously I'll take any appointment I get but one can't help wondering.

Hmmzis

dominatinMC wrote: »

I didn't understand a lot of what you said, but I liked your closing line!

The gist of those findings is that the P1 variant from Brazil is a significantly lesser concern than its cousin from South Africa.

josip

is_that_so wrote: »

No, 60% of the adult population based on that table. I think 80% vaccinated is a great target but getting there by the promised date is a lot tougher. I reckon it will be more like 70% even if those updated expected supplies happen.

What number are you using for the adult population?
I'm using 3.7m out of a total pop of 4.9m using CSO 2016 data.

I'm referring to the %age of the pop that has had at least 1 vaccine, not fully vaccinated.
I think that's the metric that's used when politicians talk about 'all by the end of June'.

KrustyUCC

Champagne Sally wrote: »

I wonder will they arrange by age when it comes to the 18 to 54 cohort. Purely selfish of me of course because I'm 54. Obviously I'll take any appointment I get but one can't help wondering.

Not that I'm aware of

There's even a possibility of 18-34 year olds getting priority

"Aged 18-54 years who did not have access to the vaccine in prior phases.

If evidence demonstrates the vaccine(s) prevent transmission, those aged 18-34 should be prioritised due to their increased level of social contact and role in transmission."

trellheim

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Your supply forecast looks a little off, updated forecast below from last week

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1364280979267981312?s=19

A fair point - neither sheet is official data from an official website though.

Even on the sheet you posted 166380+417265 = 583645

As of official stats as of yesterday

As of last Sunday (28 February), there have been 439,782 doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered in Ireland:

https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7e0924-latest-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus/

and hence a difference of 583645-439782=143863

so even allowing for 25,000 shots off the pace per noted AZ delivery, and allowing for a few % lag between delivery and get-it-out-there, say 10%

we are still over 100,000 shots difference between expected and actual

Wolf359f

trellheim wrote: »

heres the numbers I was working from
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eu7i-TqXIAArZuF?format=jpg&name=medium

AZ dosing schedule would be 3 months not 2.

stephenjmcd

trellheim wrote: »

A fair point - neither sheet is official data from an official website though.

It's in a government document, it's as official as your going to get. It's the expected delivery schedule of vaccines into the country, which up to Sunday stood at 520,320 vaccine doses in the country. Leaving 80k available for this week before further deliveries arrive this week.

https://www.gov.ie/en/campaigns/resilience-recovery-2020-2021-plan-for-living-with-covid-19/

As we know deliveries can go up or can go down as is proof with AZ, last week, this week and next week, which is why they're expected supply forecasts, can't be 100% sure of them until closer the time.

AZ are down doses & Pfizer have an outstanding commitment from December & brief Feb decrease to deliver as production increases.

Rough calculations expected supply v actual supply are about 60k out to last Sunday. HSE briefings on Thursday's will answer alot of your questions.

eoinbn

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Your supply forecast looks a little off, updated forecast below from last week

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1364280979267981312?s=19

That chart is nonsense. The chart itself acknowledges that with the statement at the bottom. The 3 companies have promised to deliver X doses in Q2 so the government just divided they by 3. Zero chance that Pfizer/BioNtech can deliver 65m doses in April. For the first 2-3 weeks of April Pfizer won't be shipping anything more than they are currently. Production will only increase in the second half of the month.

Gile_na_gile

No news but this last stage is extremely tedious. All supply lines are more or less in place, almost all results are in (save Curevac) and approval for J&J is a given. Foresee yet another 12-16 weeks before low priority get a jab, and we will should see the caseload sink around June as the vaccines really impact on transmission. It is not so much fatigue with the measures as it is the prolonged anxiety until vaccination actually ramps up to full capacity, knowing much of life is still on hold until this time arrives over a year after it started.

[Deleted User]

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Your supply forecast looks a little off, updated forecast below from last week

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1364280979267981312?s=19

This has us forecast to get 1.25m doses by the end of the month. We'd need to average over 25k doses administered per day in March to use all of those

stephenjmcd

AdamD wrote: »

This has us forecast to get 1.25m doses by the end of the month. We'd need to average over 25k doses administered per day in March to use all of those

It's doses arrived into country not doses administered.

We'll see come end of month how close expected deliveries v actual deliveries are.

leahyl

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Not that I'm aware of

There's even a possibility of 18-34 year olds getting priority

"Aged 18-54 years who did not have access to the vaccine in prior phases.

If evidence demonstrates the vaccine(s) prevent transmission, those aged 18-34 should be prioritised due to their increased level of social contact and role in transmission."

Nice....I’m 35 :-(

trellheim

It's in a government document

which is published where ? I pointed out that even taking the revised figures it was still 100,000 off , including AZ shortfall, with no answers anywhere , I was also factoring in a delay between delivery and administration. The other figures I referred to were EU high end figures from the original and working back to Ireland population so both are "official"

stephenjmcd

trellheim wrote: »

which is published where ?

The link was in my reply but I'll post again.

As of last week the expected delivery schedule included in the revised plan. If your looking for the official expected delivery schedule thats as close as your getting.

https://www.gov.ie/en/campaigns/resilience-recovery-2020-2021-plan-for-living-with-covid-19/

So far to end of Feb, actual deliveries are circa 60k short of expected.

josip

leahyl wrote: »

Nice....I’m 35 :-(

Could be worse, you could be 54

eigrod

More stories on Liveline today of people 85+ not yet having their vaccine and getting calls this morning to cancel appointments as the GPs didn’t get their promised allocation. Very disappointing.

stefanovich

eigrod wrote: »

More stories on Liveline today of people 85+ not yet having their vaccine and getting calls this morning to cancel appointments as the GPs didn’t get their promised allocation. Very disappointing.

That EU bureaucracy really is wonderful

leahyl

josip wrote: »

Could be worse, you could be 54

Yeah, well apparently once you hit 35, you're assumed to be married off with no social life to speak of!

ixoy

stefanovich wrote: »

That EU bureaucracy really is wonderful

Could be a bunch of things that are nothing to do with the EU, especially logistics of transportation which are trickier for Pfizer. Be curious to see if it's more common outside of Dublin where it becomes a bit more difficult to manage. Not an issue in the UK where they jabbed many more people with the easier to manage AZ.

Either way, the HSE could clarify where the fault is, be it supply, logistics, etc.

is_that_so

ixoy wrote: »

Could be a bunch of things that are nothing to do with the EU, especially logistics of transportation which are trickier for Pfizer. Be curious to see if it's more common outside of Dublin where it becomes a bit more difficult to manage. Not an issue in the UK where they jabbed many more people with the easier to manage AZ.

Either way, the HSE could clarify where the fault is, be it supply, logistics, etc.

They did flag an issue at last week's briefing although that seemed to be more about remote GPs. Expect the question to be asked tomorrow.

stefanovich

ixoy wrote: »

Could be a bunch of things that are nothing to do with the EU, especially logistics of transportation which are trickier for Pfizer. Be curious to see if it's more common outside of Dublin where it becomes a bit more difficult to manage. Not an issue in the UK where they jabbed many more people with the easier to manage AZ.

Either way, the HSE could clarify where the fault is, be it supply, logistics, etc.

Well we do know that the US and USA spent more, bought surplus and were prioritised. No one can claim the EU didn't mess up.

fawlty682

Only 700k more in March so. So far you couldn’t have confidence in a system which tells GPs vaccineswill be delivered on Thursday and then they don’t arrive. We need vaccine figures at least every Friday evening as well as the deaths and cases.