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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

hometruths

Happy new year to all.

2020 was the year of pent up demand. I think 2021 will be the year the pent up supply comes to market.

I think the pent up supply will exceed the pent up demand and prices will fall. By how much I have no idea!

edit: Mod Warnings

This thread is about the Irish Property Market, it is not about:
* Immigration
* Refugees
* Welfare recipients
* Welfare rates
* General Irish politics beyond its impact on property
* General Irish economy beyond its impact on property
* How wonderful Country X is to buy in

Additionally, the specific issue of Geodirectory vacancy figures has been done to death and is not to be discussed again.

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combat14

only 20% of people in dublin can afford to buy the cheapest properties

Income of €100,000 needed for cheapest Dublin apartments

https://amp.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/income-of-100000-needed-for-cheapest-dublin-apartments-40010945.html

Mic 1972

combat14 wrote: »

only 20% of people in dublin can afford to buy the cheapest properties

Income of €100,000 needed for cheapest Dublin apartments

https://amp.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/income-of-100000-needed-for-cheapest-dublin-apartments-40010945.html

I stopped reading at "lowest-priced apartment unit priced at €375,000"
That's not cheap!
You can get a 2 beds for 250,000 in many areas of Dublin

Mad_maxx

bilbot79 wrote: »

I was just about to say that. It's turned into property trading speak instead of private home ownership discussions.

Can a mod get us back on topic?

My apologies

silver2020

combat14 wrote: »

only 20% of people in dublin can afford to buy the cheapest properties

Income of €100,000 needed for cheapest Dublin apartments

https://amp.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/income-of-100000-needed-for-cheapest-dublin-apartments-40010945.html

Why do people believe this utter SH1TE and Charlie Weston is a gullible fool when it comes to hysterical stories

Here's a more truthful headline...

"Group with a keen interest in the industry comes out with wild exaggerated pricing"

These industry surveys are created by the industry themselves to create a scare factor. Try looking at the methodology - its based on one off architect, engineer, design and management teams for each development and apply the highest standard hourly/daily charging rates.

Basically if joe soap came along and wanted to build a one off block of apartments and had no contact or any negotiation skills and there was never going to be a second joe soap development, he might just about be charged these prices.

But Glenveagh, Cairn Homes, Johnny Ronan etc etc all have their in house teams and professional materials buyers and would never ever be paying anywhere close to the costs in these sham surveys.

But Charlie Weston like the gullible duck he is, never will question the costs in details or why a 15% profit margin must be had (most businesses are happy with 7-10% profit)

So simply ignore such rubbish spouted by the industry itself

JimmyVik

Mad_maxx wrote: »

IRES current yield is 4.1 % , how come more money isnt buying this ?

am i missing something , that seems like an excellent return considering the diversification , never mind not having to worry about rogue tenants or all the BS that goes with managing property

is it a case of REIT,s being relatively new to this country that people dont know enough about them ?

There are better returns to be got elsewhere though (and diversified risk). And who knows what will happen here with REITs when all the private investors are gone and the legislation guns are turned on the REITs.

MacronvFrugals

Dublin 17: Older homeowners hold firm until vaccine roll-out

There are older homeowners who are understandably nervous about putting their houses on the market, which is adding to the issue of low stock in Dublin 17.

The fear of agents having to come in to do a valuation and then have viewers walking through the house is strong enough to make them decide to park the decision to sell.

Brian Caulfield of GWD hopes confidence will grow and fears subside when the vaccine is rolled out in the coming months and the market can get back to some sort of normality.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/how-much-is-your-house-worth/dublin-17-older-homeowners-hold-firm-until-vaccine-roll-out-39986030.html

Villa05

silver2020 wrote:

So simply ignore such rubbish spouted by the industry itself

Unfortunately they are the people pulling the strings of government and rubbish becomes policy.

Note there delight with shared ownership and their concern at its delay,.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Unfortunately they are the people pulling the strings of government and rubbish becomes policy.

Note there delight with shared ownership and their concern at its delay,.

So which parts are rubbish? Is it all down to the developers and vested interests in your conspiracy theory? What about local authority levies? Utility connection fees? How should they be addressed? How do you address inefficiencies within local authorities? How will the unions react to reform of public services?
Actually forget about that and just blame the developer. Much easier.

MacronvFrugals

Crocodile tears for developers, in Ireland! I've seen it all.

HansKroenke

PropQueries wrote: »

Unless the demand from renters isn't as large as we're being told. I've not seen many queues of renters reported in the media over the past 3 years.

The demand from renters is going to be muted for the rest of 2021. Just reading the covid news and it gives an idea of what to expect in the rental market. Gradual easing of restrictions from April, travel curtailments to continue and no large gatherings for the rest of 2021 is the message being sent by the government this week.

There goes all the need for foreign labour in pubs, cafes etc. as well as international students coming back in meaningful numbers. Even with the big companies, new hires to move and obligations on existing employees to return to Ireland will all be delayed until closer to the end of the year. The demand shock to the rental market is going to remain. Meanwhile, the stock of rentals continues to climb significantly.

jr1942

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I stopped reading at "lowest-priced apartment unit priced at €375,000"
That's not cheap!
You can get a 2 beds for 250,000 in many areas of Dublin

They are talking new builds.

A joint income of almost €100,000 is now needed just to buy the cheapest new apartment in the greater Dublin area.

This is the first sentence in the article.

A couple both earning €44,000 and with a combined salary of €88,000, and a deposit of €37,500, would not be able to meet the mortgage requirements of the lowest-priced apartment, a low-rise suburban unit priced at €375,000.

This is plain and simple correct. Not something that can be said for MANY other capitals in Europe. Which then deserves criticism to say the least.

MacronvFrugals

Just reading Property Industry Ireland's 'Shared Equity Scheme Report and found this part interesting

It is only for new build homes initially

a. This will help Ireland to achieve its environmental targets by encouraging people to purchase new NZEB A-rated homes and live in higher quality living environments as determined through the Irish planning system of new home schemes.

b. If determined appropriate by the Government, the scope of the scheme could be extended to include urban regeneration properties to encourage housing units in city centres, above shop units etc, subject to strict qualifying criteria to drive the agenda for urban regeneration and quality urban living.

Graham

Mod Note

folks if you're posting links/snippets, please add your own interpretation/opinion/commentary to the post.

Thanks

Mic 1972

jr1942 wrote: »

They are talking new builds.

A joint income of almost €100,000 is now needed just to buy the cheapest new apartment in the greater Dublin area.

This is the first sentence in the article.

A couple both earning €44,000 and with a combined salary of €88,000, and a deposit of €37,500, would not be able to meet the mortgage requirements of the lowest-priced apartment, a low-rise suburban unit priced at €375,000.

This is plain and simple correct. Not something that can be said for MANY other capitals in Europe. Which then deserves criticism to say the least.

Fair enough on the new builds, but there are second hand walk-in-condition apartments available for much less. No need for a couple to earn 100K to get a house

[Deleted User]

jr1942 wrote: »

They are talking new builds.

A joint income of almost €100,000 is now needed just to buy the cheapest new apartment in the greater Dublin area.

This is the first sentence in the article.

A couple both earning €44,000 and with a combined salary of €88,000, and a deposit of €37,500, would not be able to meet the mortgage requirements of the lowest-priced apartment, a low-rise suburban unit priced at €375,000.

This is plain and simple correct. Not something that can be said for MANY other capitals in Europe. Which then deserves criticism to say the least.

There are new 2-bed apartment in skerries for 255k https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/barnageeragh-cove-barnageeragh-cove-skerries-dublin/3829188

Hubertj

mariaalice wrote: »

There are new 2-bed apartment in skerries for 255k https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/barnageeragh-cove-barnageeragh-cove-skerries-dublin/3829188

I would love someone to explain how the retail price of these apartments aligns with the SCSI report.

And someone that knows what they’re actually talking about, not just a rant about conspiracies to keep the man down.

MacronvFrugals

Cost breakdown in today's SBP

Villa05

mariaalice wrote:

There are new 2-bed apartment in skerries for 255k

Hubertj wrote:

I would love someone to explain how the retail price of these apartments aligns with the SCSI report.

The report findings are copied word for word by all the media outlets including the one I'm legally compiled to give 180 euro per year to provide balanced news and entertainment

Not one journalist has questioned it

We have a high ranking DCC official spouting we can't build anything for under 400k, while all the council's surrounding including DLR the most expensive area in the country delivering housing for much less than that. How come no media outlet questions this?

How does he not have a Homer Simpson "Doh" moment when he sees DLR and other council's delivering housing for 220k

hometruths

Latest GeoDirectory report out.

fliball123 wrote: »

Like I say I will hold my hands up if I am wrong when Jan comes around I reckon 16k so about 4k short of the 20k estimated at the start of the year. What were the build completions in Q1 and Q2? I believe up until the end of Q3 we were ar 13.300k (approx) So Q4 we have to get 6.7k finished with a new lockdown, bad weather, Xmas holidays and MeHole Martin telling us 20k wont be possible yesterday?...As I say no point arguing the data will be there in Jan.

The data indeed here in January. On completions - "In the 12 months to December 2020, a total of 21,851 new residential address points were added to the GeoDirectory database"

So a good bit more than your 16k estimate, and actually pretty close to PropQueries estimate:

fliball123 wrote: »

So 18.5k are on course to be completed I wonder if the lockdown before xmas and even the one after it will bring this number down. So much for PropsQueries assumption of 21k new house completions. I kept telling him it would not be that much I think I put a figure of 17k to 18k.

So are you going to hold your hands up and say you were wrong and PropQueries was bang on?

jr1942

jr1942 wrote: »

They are talking new builds.

A joint income of almost €100,000 is now needed just to buy the cheapest new apartment in the greater Dublin area.

This is the first sentence in the article.

A couple both earning €44,000 and with a combined salary of €88,000, and a deposit of €37,500, would not be able to meet the mortgage requirements of the lowest-priced apartment, a low-rise suburban unit priced at €375,000.

This is plain and simple correct. Not something that can be said for MANY other capitals in Europe. Which then deserves criticism to say the least.

mariaalice wrote: »

There are new 2-bed apartment in skerries for 255k https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/barnageeragh-cove-barnageeragh-cove-skerries-dublin/3829188

In the time of the article not really, these have been long sold out and not for 255,000 but 265,000.
Plus there were only a few available, less than 10, plus Skerries is good 45km from Dublin. (edit: 35km) which is a very very long drive to call it Dublin as in the article, or anything remotely close to term "city living"

hometruths

Also in GeoDirectory, yet again, Dublin continuing the trend of being the only county in the country where vacancy rates are increasing.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Latest GeoDirectory report out.

The data indeed here in January. On completions - "In the 12 months to December 2020, a total of 21,851 new residential address points were added to the GeoDirectory database"

So a good bit more than your 16k estimate, and actually pretty close to PropQueries estimate:

So are you going to hold your hands up and say you were wrong and PropQueries was bang on?

Are they not commencements?? Can you live in a house where the build is half finished and not getting any work done even now due to covid?? Any concrete figure for completions If I got it wrong I will say it that I was wrong but I dont think 2020 figures for actual completions of that year will be out until Feb

[Deleted User]

jr1942 wrote: »

In the time of the article not really, these have been long sold out and not for 255,000 but 265,000.
Plus there were only a few available, less than 10, plus Skerries is good 45km from Dublin. (edit: 35km) which is a very very long drive to call it Dublin as in the article, or anything remotely close to term "city living"

It actually 30k from the city center to skerries as a minor point.

What constitutes Dublin for those who want an apartment.

I know very little about the ins and out of how it works but I would be fairly sure land price has something to do with, and if a housing association is not paying the same for the land they are building on or are getting any waivers on contributions to the local councils it's not comparing like with like.

The developers are making money it's a business after all but they are hardly Dick Dastardly meincialy laughing as the bundle up their million.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Are they not commencements?? Can you live in a house where the build is half finished and not getting any work done even now due to covid?? Any concrete figure for completions If I got it wrong I will say it that I was wrong but I dont think 2020 figures for actual completions of that year will be out until Feb

I don't think so as half finished buildings would be deemed "Under Construction" which they classify separately.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

I don't think so as half finished buildings would be deemed "Under Construction" which they classify separately.

Well lets see what the figure is in Feb as I say if I got it terribly wrong I will hold my hand up. But a commencement is not a completion and cannot be added to the figures of housing stock available for sale or rent in 2020 and the link showed 21k commencements I reckon some of those 21k will not be completed until 2021 and will be part of the 2021 completion or new stock available for sale/rent

awec

schmittel wrote: »

I don't think so as half finished buildings would be deemed "Under Construction" which they classify separately.

Commencements are properties where development has just started. They are a leading indicator of future supply.

The report calls out that commencements have fallen sharply. This is not a surprise, given that during all the covid mess the priority for developers would have been to finish off existing development to get money flowing in. But it does indicate that supply is going to be lower next year.

2020 vs 2019:
Completions were down a bit.
Under construction was higher.
Commencements down sharply.

Marius34

GeoDirectory expects completion of 19,300 for 2020:

"In terms of housing supply, the CSO reported that the total number of new dwellings
completed in the four quarters to Q3 2020 was 19,719 units, down 2.2% on the
corresponding period to Q3 2019. The total level of completions in 2020 is expected to
be around 19,300 compared with the 21,107 completed units in 2019."

fliball123

Marius34 wrote: »

GeoDirectory expects completion of 19,300 for 2020:

"In terms of housing supply, the CSO reported that the total number of new dwellings
completed in the four quarters to Q3 2020 was 19,719 units, down 2.2% on the
corresponding period to Q3 2019. The total level of completions in 2020 is expected to
be around 19,300 compared with the 21,107 completed units in 2019."

Expected so its a forecast as I say lets see the scores on the doors in Feb.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Latest GeoDirectory report out.

The data indeed here in January. On completions - "In the 12 months to December 2020, a total of 21,851 new residential address points were added to the GeoDirectory database"

So a good bit more than your 16k estimate, and actually pretty close to PropQueries estimate:

So are you going to hold your hands up and say you were wrong and PropQueries was bang on?

Do you know when an “address point” is created? Is it only done when a unit is finished? Or is it done at an earlier stage? Does it mean there are 21k extra units ready to go?

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

Well lets see what the figure is in Feb as I say if I got it terribly wrong I will hold my hand up. But a commencement is not a completion and cannot be added to the figures of housing stock available for sale or rent in 2020 and the link showed 21k commencements I reckon some of those 21k will not be completed until 2021 and will be part of the 2021 completion or new stock available for sale/rent

Fair enough.