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Level 5 lockdown essentially failed

[Deleted User]

The goal of the level 5 lockdown was to reduce the cases to about 50 per day so we could reopen.
Unfortunately yesterday we had 300 cases and are nowhere close to 50 a day.

Now of course it did help to an extent. Cases have reduced from about 1000+ to 250 - 300 ish. But we have to consider the social and economic impact on society as well.

Based on what we’ve seen, if we return to level 5 in January, what evidence is there to suggest it will even work?

If we do rise to 1000+ cases a day in Jan, how many months of level 5 would be needed to get back towards 0, which seems to be our goal. Would it even be sustainable?

Do you think cases will remain lower with more social outlets open and more controlled environments?

If months of level 5 is the only solution until everybody is vaccinated, I think we are f*cked.
I predict there will be huge backlash against lockdowns next year.

Thoughts?

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copeyhagen

is_that_so wrote: »

but we've shown that we can protect at risk populations and manage the disease.

wait, what? you realise that the average age of death was 83 and that 1700 (when deaths were at 1800) deaths were related to underlying conditions.

this means the elderly and sick in nursing homes/medical fascilities were the ones dying....

yes, they done a great job protecting the vulnerable..

smh

Padre_Pio

ednwireland wrote: »

and destroy the economy

Destroy is a strong word. The economy will recover.

Unemployment is high, but this will bounce back. Pubs, restaurants and services will reopen quickly. If businesses close then others will take their place.

Government expenditure is high, but that social welfare mostly, which again, comes back in tax receipts.

Corporation tax is doing well, most white and blue collar jobs are working as usual, exports are good, personal savings are up for most of the country, property prices are strong.

Next year is going to be a bonanza year with all this pent up demand

[Deleted User]

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

What I would love to know is say mid 2021 if we get all healthcare workers and vulnerable people vaccinated can we just then return to normal?

Not if you listen to Sam McConkey. This is our new normal according to him. Not sure where the money for PUP or even the health service is going to come from. Perhaps SFs magic money tree can help here?

[Deleted User]

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Destroy is a strong word. The economy will recover.

Eventually, after 8-10 years.

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Unemployment is high, but this will bounce back. Pubs, restaurants and services will reopen quickly. If businesses close then others will take their place.

Some are gone forever. People will have less money to spend, therefore many won't open for years.

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Government expenditure is high, but that social welfare mostly, which again, comes back in tax receipts.

Higher taxes for everyone working, which will further depress the economy. The Government have baked in an extra €4 billion of permanent spending. Also we've agreed to become the 5th largest contributor to the EU budget in ABSOLUTE TERMS - not per capita. https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/ireland-to-pay-over-3200-to-eu-for-every-man-woman-and-child-in-the-country-over-the-next-seven-years-39389257.html

Only Germany, France, the Netherlands and Sweden will make a higher contribution than Ireland… while this country will make the second highest payment per capita, ceding first place to only tiny Luxembourg.

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Corporation tax is doing well, most white and blue collar jobs are working as usual, exports are good, personal savings are up for most of the country, property prices are strong.

This is true, however if the government jack up taxes, or the EU force us to, or SF gets elected, and they all run away, then we are in deep sh1t.

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Next year is going to be a bonanza year with all this pent up demand

For entertainment and hospitality sector, yes. It won't get them back to where they were pre COVID.

As someone who runs a small business that did quite well during COVID, I think we are screwed for a long time.

Tazz T

landofthetree wrote: »

All wishful thinking.

It's obvious that cases will be over 1000 a day by Jan.

I'll take that bet and raise you everything I own. There isn't a chance we'll be over 1000 in January.

In fact, I believe we'll be well under 100. The two weeks the schools are out will be kicking in then, easily offsetting any increased infection spread due to socialising over xmas. Remember we're still still at Level 3.5.

Our schools stats here are hidden within in-house transmission. In the UK, number one spreader is secondary schools by a large margin.

Green list in January if not by then.

Padre_Pio

Deleted User wrote: »

Eventually, after 8-10 years.

Some are gone forever. People will have less money to spend, therefore many won't open for years.

Higher taxes for everyone working, which will further depress the economy. The Government have baked in an extra €4 billion of permanent spending. Also we've agreed to become the 5th largest contributor to the EU budget in ABSOLUTE TERMS - not per capita.

This is true, however if the government jack up taxes, or the EU force us to, or SF gets elected, and they all run away, then we are in deep sh1t.

For entertainment and hospitality sector, yes. It won't get them back to where they were pre COVID.

As someone who runs a small business that did quite well during COVID, I think we are screwed for a long time.

8-10? Not even the 2008 recession took 8-10 years to recover (ah but some country towns are still in recession you say, but they were always in recession).

Most people have MORE to spend. the same as anyone who stayed on their wage, or had govt top up.
The recovery is going to be very uneven, granted, but since the ECB is printing free money, we'll do well out of it.

[Deleted User]

Padre_Pio wrote: »

8-10? Not even the 2008 recession took 8-10 years to recover (ah but some country towns are still in recession you say, but they were always in recession).

This is much worse than the 2008 recession. Unemployment wasn't 21% during that. The borrowing we are doing is equivalent to the Troika bailout, and will most likely exceed it.

And this "free money" nonsense is just that, nonsense. It will all have to be paid back, and interest rates will rise. Otherwise banks will go bust. It will also lead to inflation.

Couple that with energy costs going through the roof due to all the green initiatives (not suggesting this is bad for the planet, but it's bad for the economy).

Politically everyone wants to spend,spend,spend. This never ends well. Just look at 1970s UK.

If we have another pandemic in that time which is more deadly, we are finished, as we have shot our bolt on this one. All the money we are spending now is gone with not much to show for it in terms of lasting effects.

I am not at all optimistic about the next 8-10 years. Time will tell.

Padre_Pio

Deleted User wrote: »

This is much worse than the 2008 recession. Unemployment wasn't 21% during that. The borrowing we are doing is equivalent to the Troika bailout, and will most likely exceed it.

And this "free money" nonsense is just that, nonsense. It will all have to be paid back, and interest rates will rise. Otherwise banks will go bust. It will also lead to inflation.

Unemployment isn't really 21% now. The govt could cut it by 10% tomorrow if they opened up the economy. They have chosen not to. But in 3 months or 6 months unemployment will be back to sub 10%

What you're saying doesn't match up with the economic policy put forward by the EU.

[Deleted User]

landofthetree wrote: »

All wishful thinking.

It's obvious that cases will be over 1000 a day by Jan.

See you on Jan 1st then

niallo27

Deleted User wrote: »

This is much worse than the 2008 recession. Unemployment wasn't 21% during that. The borrowing we are doing is equivalent to the Troika bailout, and will most likely exceed it.

And this "free money" nonsense is just that, nonsense. It will all have to be paid back, and interest rates will rise. Otherwise banks will go bust. It will also lead to inflation.

Couple that with energy costs going through the roof due to all the green initiatives (not suggesting this is bad for the planet, but it's bad for the economy).

Politically everyone wants to spend,spend,spend. This never ends well. Just look at 1970s UK.

If we have another pandemic in that time which is more deadly, we are finished, as we have shot our bolt on this one. All the money we are spending now is gone with not much to show for it in terms of lasting effects.

I am not at all optimistic about the next 8-10 years. Time will tell.

If interest rates rise across Europe its a sign economies are booming. Interest rates will not rise in a recession.

landofthetree

So we are well on the road to my prediction. 429 today.

bb1234567

Well let's hope it's a blip. With cases rising in the only other countries that prevented a second wave, Denmark, Finland and Norway maybe it's inevitable but it would be an impressive feat and accomplishment by ireland to be the only country in the continent to not see a major resurgence of note

Zebra3

Padre_Pio wrote: »

The recovery is going to be very uneven, granted, but since the ECB is printing free money, we'll do well out of it.

Fascinating.

I was under the impression that the loans had to be repaid.

ILoveYourVibes

average_runner wrote: »

Primary schools are not big spreaders. Kids in a school of 600, 6 cases in total and this is Dublin and a location where the virus is higher

The school drop does encourage people to go out though. And secondary schools are another issue. It also encourages kids to meet up.

ILoveYourVibes

Zebra3 wrote: »

Fascinating.

I was under the impression that the loans had to be repaid.

They do of course. I presume at a lower rate of interest though.

Tazz T

landofthetree wrote: »

So we are well on the road to my prediction. 429 today.

So when it's under 300 this evening, I'll be able to say 'so we are well on the road to my prediction, after a 25% fall in the infection rate in just one day'.

See how that works?

Tazz T

269 - a 48% fall in just 24 hours. better luck tomorrow

GhostyMcGhost

Tazz T wrote: »

269 - a 48% fall in just 24 hours. better luck tomorrow

We’ve turned a corner!

Zebra3

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

They do of course. I presume at a lower rate of interest though.

So it’s not free money then.

More lies being spouted.

end of the road

Zebra3 wrote: »

So it’s not free money then.

More lies being spouted.

no lies being spouted.
nobody who pointed out that we would have access to money have stated that the money is free.

Boggles

I wonder is their anyone from the European countries going into harsh Christmas restrictions looking at the thread title and shaking their head.

global23214124

It wasn't really a failure. I think we've done reasonably well to lower our number of contacts and the case levels down to what we have. Theres isn't going to be the exact same level of compliance as the first one as too much time has passed and people are fed up. Comparing it to Netherlands or Germany where they bringing in lockdowns now I'll take it.

Del Griffith

The next one should have lower compliance again.

A good thing, imo. By April hardly anyone will give a ****e anymore.

Boggles

Del Griffith wrote: »

The next one should have lower compliance again.

A good thing, imo. By April hardly anyone will give a ****e anymore.

Lower compliance will result in longer restrictions.

The only way one could see that as a "good thing" is if they want longer
restrictions.

I don't know any reasonable individual who would want such a thing.

tobefrank321

Boggles wrote: »

I wonder is their anyone from the European countries going into harsh Christmas restrictions looking at the thread title and shaking their head.

They'll be shaking their heads again at us in January.

There's a lot of shaking of heads these days and finger pointing but no great solutions.

We are at a different stage to the rest of Europe. We probably had a shorter second wave than most. But our third wave will come in January before everyone elses. We'll have to lockdown again for another 6 weeks to get us to March 1st, then open up and lockdown again 1st April. We are likely to have at least four more 6 week lockdowns until enough people are vaccinated if Dr. Glynn and NPHET are correct about the trajectory changing in the summer.

Personally I think the January lockdown should be the last, but I'm not in charge.

Tazz T

tobefrank321 wrote: »

T
Personally I think the January lockdown should be the last, but I'm not in charge.

I'd agree. Historically, it would be difficult to find an example of a fourth wave airborne pandemic. It does look like our third wave will be quicker to arrive which isn't a bad thing. It might push things along in terms of the vaccine rollout. But the third wave won't be not so severe. And could be tempered further by the vaccine.

The problem is even if it's gone, the government could be overcaution and still use restrictions and introduce legislation that affects us well into the future especially when it comes to travel or attending events.

Boggles

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They'll be shaking their heads again at us in January.

I don't think they will.

The correct strategy at least for Europe was to enter the Christmas period with the lowest infection rate possible.

The rate of compliance with restrictions over the Christmas period will be low, it's just natural.

Some European countries could be looking at not lifting strict restrictions until Spring.

MadYaker

Tazz T wrote: »

I'd agree. Historically, it would be difficult to find an example of a fourth wave airborne pandemic. It does look like our third wave will be quicker to arrive which isn't a bad thing. It might push things along in terms of the vaccine rollout. But the third wave won't be not so severe. And could be tempered further by the vaccine.

The problem is even if it's gone, the government could be overcaution and still use restrictions and introduce legislation that affects us well into the future especially when it comes to travel or attending events.

The gov won’t introduce restrictions unless they have to. It depends on case numbers and hospital capacity.

Tazz T

MadYaker wrote: »

The gov won’t introduce restrictions unless they have to. It depends on case numbers and hospital capacity.

So what case numbers are needed for them to eliminate restrictions?

Bearing in mind we currently have the best numbers in Europe and we're still at Level 3.5 and are being teased with Level 5 again in Jan.

awec

Boggles wrote: »

Lower compliance will result in longer restrictions.

The only way one could see that as a "good thing" is if they want longer
restrictions.

I don't know any reasonable individual who would want such a thing.

Longer restrictions are of no consequence if there is no compliance.