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COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Masala

Today being Paddy Day 2020... when do you think we will have a ‘flu jab’ / pill / syrup that we can take to make us immune/ les likely to catch this 19 virus?.

Mod: The purpose of this thread is baked into the title - COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures - it's not a platform to push an anti vaccination agenda. If posters wish to discuss the perceived cons of vaccinations, or push various theories regarding 'the agenda' (whatever that is supposed to mean), open a thread elsewhere on it.

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VinLieger

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There's quite the proportion on this website who refuse to acknowledge potential vaccines and predict on-going lockdowns until 2022-2023.

Ahh thought you were refferring to those pushing for lockdowns now.

Micky 32

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There's quite the proportion on this website who refuse to acknowledge potential vaccines and predict on-going lockdowns until 2022-2023.

That’s when it will be time to make the best use of the ignore function.

funnydoggy

Either way, we're all gonna be vaccinated up to our eyeballs and we'll run free, naked and care-free, like a cow who's just been let outside after a long winter..

... no? Just me?

Micky 32

VinLieger wrote: »

Ahh thought you were refferring to those pushing for lockdowns now.

I’m sure there will be some who won’t take the vaccine but will also push for more lockdowns at the same time.

[Deleted User]

VinLieger wrote: »

Or the white house is pressuring them into moving faster than they should, im not saying its what happening but I dont think its wrong to be skeptical of literally anything coming out of any US governmental agencies under trump

Well, not only do manufacturers need to get FDA approval to market a drug in the US, they also have to be able to demonstrate compliance with Title 21 Chapter 1 of the Code of Federal Regulations and the executives with responsibility to ensure compliance are criminally responsible if they authorise release of a product which subsequently causes harm and they have not satisfied the requirements of the federal code.

So even if Trump was to pressurise the FDA into early approval before requirements were met, reputable manufactures would be reluctant to release, knowing they had not fulfilled the criteria.

froog

ACitizenErased wrote: »

In all seriousness it's going to be interesting to see the reaction of those calling for lockdowns when we have a vaccine

are you mixing up the anti vaccine nutters with people who favour restrictions to halt the spread of the virus? no idea why you'd lump those two in together.

froog

Deleted User wrote: »

Well, not only do manufacturers need to get FDA approval to market a drug in the US, they also have to be able to demonstrate compliance with Title 21 Chapter 1 of the Code of Federal Regulations and the executives with responsibility to ensure compliance are criminally responsible if they authorise release of a product which subsequently causes harm and they have not satisfied the requirements of the federal code.

So even if Trump was to pressurise the FDA into early approval before requirements were met, reputable manufactures would be reluctant to release, knowing they had not fulfilled the criteria.

pretty sure vaccine manufacturers carry no liability risk in the states according to the PREP act:

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/04/15/2020-08040/amendment-to-declaration-under-the-public-readiness-and-emergency-preparedness-act-for-medical

ACitizenErased

froog wrote: »

are you mixing up the anti vaccine nutters with people who favour restrictions to halt the spread of the virus? no idea why you'd lump those two in together.

Nope I'm not.

[Deleted User]

ACitizenErased wrote: »

In all seriousness it's going to be interesting to see the reaction of those calling for lockdowns when we have a vaccine

Just to say, I am presently in favour of a new lockdown to reverse the present trends and get us back on an even keel going into December and January.

I would not be in favour of further harsh lockdowns once we have secured enough of an efficacious vaccine to protect vulnerable groups.

I also think people should be cautious about being bullish about vaccine prospects at the moment, we could be very close, but at the same time nothing is guaranteed and we are still in a wait and see situation.

[Deleted User]

froog wrote: »

pretty sure vaccine manufacturers carry no liability risk in the states according to the PREP act:

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/04/15/2020-08040/amendment-to-declaration-under-the-public-readiness-and-emergency-preparedness-act-for-medical

Except in the case of wilful misconduct. Like maybe releasing something that has not had adequate safety testing. I know if I was responsible for that decision at Pfizer I would certainly want to be sure of the data

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

Except in the case of wilful misconduct. Like maybe releasing something that has not had adequate safety testing. I know if I was responsible for that decision at Pfizer I would certainly want to be sure of the data

Wilful is a fairly strict intent standard, it would almost require that they knew something was dangerous and intentionally ignored or hid it, rather than a situation where something was missed or overlooked.

I'd still have faith that regulators will be as thorough as possible.

iguana

ACitizenErased wrote: »

In all seriousness it's going to be interesting to see the reaction of those calling for lockdowns when we have a vaccine

Those two things aren't mutually exclusive. We don't have a vaccine now and numbers are rising, there is a very strong possibility of our health system being overwhelmed. Major restrictions, including most likely school closures/a hybrid system, are necessary now. Hopefully we can get the spread back under control with the current/coming round of restrictions. And as things start reopening once we've 'flattened the curve' again, they will hopefully not face closures again as a vaccine programme will be underway and cases won't rise out of control ever again.

hmmm

funnydoggy wrote: »

How does this work, it being so close to the end of the trial?

Confuses me. Thanks hmmm

From what I've read, it's best to think of the trials as having no fixed date for when they will end.

It's likely we will get data from the initial 30,000 people hopefully by the end of the year. The regulators on the back of that might decide they will allow the vaccine to be given to certain high-risk groups. But the regulators will also likely tell the Pfizers of this world to keep monitoring the 30,000, and include a few more groups (e.g. children), and then make another decision later in 2020 as to whether they will allow the vaccine to be widely deployed (and who gets it).

By mid-2021, they will have nearly a years worth of data on the initial 30,000 people, and another couple of million people will have received the initial release of the vaccine.

JTMan

Update on the Chinese vaccines from the WSJ here (paywall).

- China National Biotec Group Co., a division of state-owned Sinopharm that is developing two Covid-19 vaccines, is giving them free to Chinese students planning to study abroad. Apply via website.
- 481,613 people had already taken the Sinopharm vaccines while an additional 93,653 had applied for them.
- Four of China’s vaccines are in the last phase of clinical testing on tens of thousands volunteers, with some of its drugmakers expected to publish preliminary results in the coming weeks.
- Some criticise China for "moving too fast".

micks_address

JTMan wrote: »

Update on the Chinese vaccines from the WSJ here (paywall).

- China National Biotec Group Co., a division of state-owned Sinopharm that is developing two Covid-19 vaccines, is giving them free to Chinese students planning to study abroad. Apply via website.
- 481,613 people had already taken the Sinopharm vaccines while an additional 93,653 had applied for them.
- Four of China’s vaccines are in the last phase of clinical testing on tens of thousands volunteers, with some of its drugmakers expected to publish preliminary results in the coming weeks.
- Some criticise China for "moving too fast".

They are pretty big numbers

[Deleted User]

JTMan wrote: »

Update on the Chinese vaccines from the WSJ here (paywall).

- China National Biotec Group Co., a division of state-owned Sinopharm that is developing two Covid-19 vaccines, is giving them free to Chinese students planning to study abroad. Apply via website.
- 481,613 people had already taken the Sinopharm vaccines while an additional 93,653 had applied for them.
- Four of China’s vaccines are in the last phase of clinical testing on tens of thousands volunteers, with some of its drugmakers expected to publish preliminary results in the coming weeks.
- Some criticise China for "moving too fast".

Given only 5,000 cases have been confirmed in China since April, the odds of enough of the people, supplied with the vaccine, becoming exposed to sufficiently test the efficacy of vaccine would be very low if only tested within China. Based on those numbers 1 in 280,000 Chinese residents have had the virus since April

[Deleted User]

froog wrote: »

pretty sure vaccine manufacturers carry no liability risk in the states according to the PREP act:

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/04/15/2020-08040/amendment-to-declaration-under-the-public-readiness-and-emergency-preparedness-act-for-medical

The manufacturers are providing the vaccines at cost. So the purpose of that is to prevent them being bogged down by frivolous lawsuits.

As raind already pointed out it does not protect them in the event of misconduct nor does it prevent them from being sued.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

Given only 5,000 cases have been confirmed in China since April, the odds of enough of the people, supplied with the vaccine, becoming exposed to sufficiently test the efficacy of virus would be very low if only tested within China. Based on those numbers 1 in 280,000 Chinese residents have had the virus since April

Also in use in trials in Argentina, UAE, Peru, Bahrain.

funnydoggy

hmmm wrote: »

From what I've read, it's best to think of the trials as having no fixed date for when they will end.

It's likely we will get data from the initial 30,000 people hopefully by the end of the year. The regulators on the back of that might decide they will allow the vaccine to be given to certain high-risk groups. But the regulators will also likely tell the Pfizers of this world to keep monitoring the 30,000, and include a few more groups (e.g. children), and then make another decision later in 2020 as to whether they will allow the vaccine to be widely deployed (and who gets it).

By mid-2021, they will have nearly a years worth of data on the initial 30,000 people, and another couple of million people will have received the initial release of the vaccine.

Perfectly explained, go raibh mile!

Gael23

hmmm wrote: »

From what I've read, it's best to think of the trials as having no fixed date for when they will end.

It's likely we will get data from the initial 30,000 people hopefully by the end of the year. The regulators on the back of that might decide they will allow the vaccine to be given to certain high-risk groups. But the regulators will also likely tell the Pfizers of this world to keep monitoring the 30,000, and include a few more groups (e.g. children), and then make another decision later in 2020 as to whether they will allow the vaccine to be widely deployed (and who gets it).

By mid-2021, they will have nearly a years worth of data on the initial 30,000 people, and another couple of million people will have received the initial release of the vaccine.

So it will be late 2021 then

stephenjmcd

Gael23 wrote: »

So it will be late 2021 then

By the time young healthy people get a vaccine, yeah of course. Bottom of the queue

dominatinMC

stephenjmcd wrote: »

By the time young healthy people get a vaccine, yeah of course. Bottom of the queue

But by then, we'll all be back going to matches, concerts, pubs, restaurants etc. as most young people (bar those with underlying conditions) will be willing to take the risk and get on with living - as opposed to existing, which is the current status quo.

stephenjmcd

dominatinMC wrote: »

But by then, we'll all be back going to matches, concerts, pubs, restaurants etc. as most young people (bar those with underlying conditions) will be willing to take the risk and get on with living - as opposed to existing, which is the current status quo.

As has been said before, you don't need everyone vaccinated to break transmission.
When vulnerable groups are vaccinated then you can take the foot off restrictions and continue to unwind

hmmm

dominatinMC wrote: »

But by then, we'll all be back going to matches, concerts, pubs, restaurants etc. as most young people (bar those with underlying conditions) will be willing to take the risk and get on with living - as opposed to existing, which is the current status quo.

We're going to face problems with community spread and hospital capacity until we get the tools like rapid testing, vaccines & treatments. We're unlikely to be reopening pubs, nightclubs, concerts until those tools are deployed.

I'm guessing that rapid testing will be the first thing to make a big impact, with vaccines following a few months later. The manufacturing capacity for treatments (e.g. Regeneron/Lilly) appears to be lagging where we'd like it to be, but it will catch up in time.

Gael23

hmmm wrote: »

We're going to face problems with community spread and hospital capacity until we get the tools like rapid testing, vaccines & treatments. We're unlikely to be reopening pubs, nightclubs, concerts until those tools are deployed.

I'm guessing that rapid testing will be the first thing to make a big impact, with vaccines following a few months later. The manufacturing capacity for treatments (e.g. Regeneron/Lilly) appears to be lagging where we'd like it to be, but it will catch up in time.

Well the HSE seem incapable of getting testing right so not convinced rapid testing will happen

Martina1991

Gael23 wrote: »

Well the HSE seem incapable of getting testing right so not convinced rapid testing will happen

What are you on about.

There was over 100,000 tests completed last week and capacity continues to increase.

There are no barriers to people getting a test and turnaround times are quite good.

People are never satisfied.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Gael23 wrote: »

Well the HSE seem incapable of getting testing right so not convinced rapid testing will happen

If you want to throw out inaccurate crap go ahead.

If you would prefer to give fair criticism critise the contact tracing rather than the testing.

Gael23

Martina1991 wrote: »

What are you on about.

There was over 100,000 tests completed last week and capacity continues to increase.

There are no barriers to people getting a test and turnaround times are quite good.

People are never satisfied.

How long did it take for that 100k capacity to be reached?

ACitizenErased

We should send an email to the EMA and tell em hurry up a tad, could do with it now

[Deleted User]

Martina1991 wrote: »

What are you on about.

There was over 100,000 tests completed last week and capacity continues to increase.

There are no barriers to people getting a test and turnaround times are quite good.

People are never satisfied.

I wouldn't bother engaging. A lot of people want things to just happen without even considering the logistics of it all.

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