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COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Masala

Today being Paddy Day 2020... when do you think we will have a ‘flu jab’ / pill / syrup that we can take to make us immune/ les likely to catch this 19 virus?.

Mod: The purpose of this thread is baked into the title - COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures - it's not a platform to push an anti vaccination agenda. If posters wish to discuss the perceived cons of vaccinations, or push various theories regarding 'the agenda' (whatever that is supposed to mean), open a thread elsewhere on it.

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[Deleted User]

landofthetree wrote: »

The Brits will sell us some if they have bought a working
vaccine.

They would want the vaccine available to all in CTA asap.

We’re still looking at a year from now of restrictions, best case IMO. Vaccine sometime in Q2 2021 seems to be the general consensus, and there’ll be a few months before it’s available to the general population, and then enough have to take it. It’s pretty demoralising to think of restrictions going out that long

ACitizenErased

Gradius wrote: »

How is that separate??

The trials are on a scale that have never been seen before. Vaccines for SARS were already in development, it's not a new thing.

Gradius

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The trials are on a scale that have never been seen before. Vaccines for SARS were already in development, it's not a new thing.

You can't speed up time.

LessOutragePlz

charlie14 wrote: »

Every time I read or hear a comment like that I imagine two old lads watching the first Model T Ford`s rolling off the production line with one turning to the other saying, " Those yokes were built so fast they have to be much more dangerous"

Was Henry Ford lobbying the US government ask them to pay for any claims if there was a crash due to the malfunctioning of their cars.

Because that's what the vaccine producers are lobbying for at the moment in the EU trying to make the EU and ultimately EU tax payers liable for compensation claims as a result of potential side effects from taking the vaccine.

I highly doubt that headlines like these will inspire confidence in the vaccine among the general public.

"COVID-19 vaccine makers see EU shield against side-effect claims."

https://uk.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-eu-vaccine/update-2-coronavirus-vaccine-makers-see-eu-shield-against-side-effect-claims-idUKL5N2GJ1JO

"Vaccine makers will be indemnified in Europe if their COVID-19 shots cause unexpected side-effects, an industry official said on Tuesday, urging European regulators to set up more predictable schemes to compensate possible victims."

Gael23

Deleted User wrote: »

We’re still looking at a year from now of restrictions, best case IMO. Vaccine sometime in Q2 2021 seems to be the general consensus, and there’ll be a few months before it’s available to the general population, and then enough have to take it. It’s pretty demoralising to think of restrictions going out that long

I agree not all restrictions will be lifted the moment w vaccine comes to market but I would hope and expect them to be significantly less severe

[Deleted User]

The general public will absolutely take the vaccine when its released, despite the efforts of some whackjobs.

Hmmzis

Gradius wrote: »

I've seen vaccines 15 years in trials through to regulation.

Simply paring phases down doesn't mean anything.

So what exact biological mechanisms would you be expecting to see during those 15 years of trials that would not be detectable in the first 6-8 weeks? I don't think I've read any study about an adverse event linked to a vaccine that was induced that long after serocoversion. Could you please provide some citations for said mechanisms?

Usually phase 3 trials take ages due to lack of enrollment and having to chase outbreaks, also having a large phase 3 is expensive so smaller trials are used but they have to wait longer for the infection events to trigger a review.

charlie14

LessOutragePlz wrote: »

Was Henry Ford lobbying the US government ask them to pay for any claims if there was a crash due to the malfunctioning of their cars.

Because that's what the vaccine producers are lobbying for at the moment in the EU trying to make the EU and ultimately EU tax payers liable for compensation claims as a result of potential side effects from taking the vaccine.

I highly doubt that headlines like these will inspire confidence in the vaccine among the general public.

"COVID-19 vaccine makers see EU shield against side-effect claims."

https://uk.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-eu-vaccine/update-2-coronavirus-vaccine-makers-see-eu-shield-against-side-effect-claims-idUKL5N2GJ1JO

"Vaccine makers will be indemnified in Europe if their COVID-19 shots cause unexpected side-effects, an industry official said on Tuesday, urging European regulators to set up more predictable schemes to compensate possible victims."

It just shows the economic damage this pandemic is causing when government are prepared to do that.
Even at that, I would see it as an added incentive to governments to ensure vaccines are safe.

ACitizenErased

Gradius wrote: »

You can't speed up time.

Time means sweet f all when you've enrollment of 30000+ per trial.

Gradius

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Time means sweet f all when you've enrollment of 30000+ per trial.

Man, the reason vaccines are put through such stringent, time-consuming trials is because the detrimental effect could be disastrous with a capital D.

If something is going to give you a heart attack after using it for 7 months, it doesn't matter if you have 50 billion people that tested it for only 6 months.

froog

Gradius wrote: »

You can't speed up time.

No but you run phases concurrently and you can do the longest phase 3 in record time due to how prevalent coronavirus is. If you read up a bit on how vaccines are developed you will understand how it is possible.

Gradius

froog wrote: »

No but you run phases concurrently and you can do the longest phase 3 in record time due to how prevalent coronavirus is. If you read up a bit on how vaccines are developed you will understand how it is possible.

How many vaccines have you designed? I'll bet it's less than me.

I don't understand how people can't get their head around the basics here.

The whole point is time ITSELF.

It's like trying to tell me that if you glue 10 people together, they can then run 10 times faster. It's just fundamentally wrong.

Polar101

Gradius wrote: »

How many vaccines have you designed? I'll bet it's less than me.

Did the vaccine you designed cause many heartattacks in people after 7 months?

Gradius

Polar101 wrote: »

Did the vaccine you designed cause many heartattacks in people after 7 months?

No, but thats because they were thoroughly tested from animal to human over swathes of time.

It's true, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. You have armies of people proclaiming "knowledge" on oftentimes ridiculously complicated fields after having watched a few 5 minute videos on YouTube and an article from some journalist.

Its food for thought on how people get what they deserve..

I mean look at you and your comment, youre attempting to ridicule me because...what, I've designed vaccines? Because I'm pointing out the truth?

It's like a peek into everything wrong with everything.

astrofool

Gradius wrote: »

How many vaccines have you designed? I'll bet it's less than me.

Which vaccines did you design?

Gradius

Hmmzis wrote: »

So what exact biological mechanisms would you be expecting to see during those 15 years of trials that would not be detectable in the first 6-8 weeks? I don't think I've read any study about an adverse event linked to a vaccine that was induced that long after serocoversion. Could you please provide some citations for said mechanisms?

Usually phase 3 trials take ages due to lack of enrollment and having to chase outbreaks, also having a large phase 3 is expensive so smaller trials are used but they have to wait longer for the infection events to trigger a review.

I only noticed this now. You think I'm going to waste my time giving you citations after that first sentence?

An experimental car didn't explode after driving it for 5 minutes. Sure what would you be expecting to go wrong over the next decade?! Pfft, it's 100% safe.

Gradius

astrofool wrote: »

Which vaccines did you design?

Let me just post up a c.v, my address, photos and Bank details, all so I can win an internet point.

No, that won't be happening.

astrofool

Gradius wrote: »

Let me just post up a c.v, my address, photos and Bank details, all so I can win an internet point.

No, that won't be happening.

Just the vaccines you designed is enough.

froog

Gradius wrote: »

How many vaccines have you designed? I'll bet it's less than me.

I don't understand how people can't get their head around the basics here.

The whole point is time ITSELF.

It's like trying to tell me that if you glue 10 people together, they can then run 10 times faster. It's just fundamentally wrong.

Do you know what concurrently means?

froog

Lol we have an actual vaccine designer on boards now. Truely we are honored!

radiotrickster

Probably a stupid question, but if you have antibodies then do you need a vaccine or is it better to be safe than sorry?

Gradius

astrofool wrote: »

Just the vaccines you designed is enough.

Oh you've got me on the ropes now!

If I were to mention them it's a matter of 5 minutes to find my name and so on.

So no, I'm not retarded.

That you couldn't imagine that scenario though... :P

hmmm

radiotrickster wrote: »

Probably a stupid question, but if you have antibodies then do you need a vaccine or is it better to be safe than sorry?

We don't really know enough yet about immunity in the case of Covid as to what's most important and how the bodies various defences come into play.

A vaccine will generally simulate a severe infection, and generate much higher antibody levels than a natural infection. From what I've heard, even people who have already had Covid will likely be recommended to get vaccinated.

Le Bruise

froog wrote: »

Lol we have an actual vaccine designer on boards now. Truely we are honored!

....and only just today decided to start posting in the vaccines thread (from what I can make out)!

funnydoggy

Gradius wrote: »

Oh you've got me on the ropes now!

If I were to mention them it's a matter of 5 minutes to find my name and so on.

So no, I'm not retarded.

That you couldn't imagine that scenario though... :P

:pac:
Idon'tbelieveyou.gif

Gradius

froog wrote: »

Lol we have an actual vaccine designer on boards now. Truely we are honored!

Truely...

Gas, isn't it, how it becomes a point of attempted ridicule?

What do you think that means?

Gradius

Le Bruise wrote: »

....and only just today decided to start posting in the vaccines thread (from what I can make out)!

I don't work with vaccines anymore. But why would me posting today, versus two years ago or ever mean anything anyway?

tobefrank321

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Time means sweet f all when you've enrollment of 30000+ per trial.

Problem is though you have to wait something like 6 months for enough people to be infected or not infected and also from a safety point of view. And the wrong kinds of people might be exposed to the virus, eg healthy ones when really you want a lot of vaccinated elderly exposed.

Oxford are saying they hope to know by November if their vaccine works. I'm optimistic it will work, but if it doesn't, we could be in trouble in that maybe no vaccine will work.

The Chinese are currently vaccinating healthcare workers in UAE. It will be fascinating to see if there's a decline in cases or deaths there.

Gradius

froog wrote: »

Do you know what concurrently means?

Yeah I do.

And if you have 10 people running concurrently in a race, it won't be 10 times quicker until they finish.

darjeeling

Hmmzis wrote: »

So what exact biological mechanisms would you be expecting to see during those 15 years of trials that would not be detectable in the first 6-8 weeks? I don't think I've read any study about an adverse event linked to a vaccine that was induced that long after serocoversion. Could you please provide some citations for said mechanisms?

Usually phase 3 trials take ages due to lack of enrollment and having to chase outbreaks, also having a large phase 3 is expensive so smaller trials are used but they have to wait longer for the infection events to trigger a review.

The ongoing phase III trials of ~30,000 participants from a wide range of age and patient groups should give us good data on the safety of the vaccines themselves in the absence of infection with the virus.

But these trials are designed to report once there have been ~200 infections in either the control or vaccine groups - i.e. only a small number of patients where we have data on the interaction between the virus and the immune response induced by the vaccine .

And the trials will report just a few months after the participants are vaccinated, so we will not know if the vaccine remains protective six months, 12 months etc after it is given, or even whether people who received the vaccine could have more severe illness on infection than the non-vaccinated as immunity wanes, which is at least a theoretical possibility.

Given the pressing need for a vaccine, the testing that is being done is probably the best that can be achieved, but we will not have a full picture of the safety of any of these vaccines at the point when mass vaccination of tens or even hundreds of millions of people begins.

These issues were all recently explored on an episode of TWiV that I found very informative. A science journalist gives his review of a seminar with scientific officers from all of the main companies that have started or are about to start phase III trials.

Starts @1hr, 1min, though the initial section describing all the different types of vaccines is also worth listening to: