Boggles wrote: » Is he? You sure? Anyway I have to email back this Nigerian Prince he says he is going to give me 600 million, imagine that.
Spiderman0081 wrote: » No “healthy” people. That’s very important. I am in no way anti vaccine but am worried for any healthy person who is willing to take a chance on a new vaccine which is being hurried for many of the wrong reasons. I say that coming from a standpoint of caring. Nothing more, or less.
FintanMcluskey wrote: » You we referring to the fact Irelands inquest would be short lived, which I believe was based upon your own inability to understand the figures. Ill summarise for you, if you are over 65 you have the same chance of dying of Covid in Ireland or Sweden. Ireland has not protected its citizens any better. So to address your initial point which I assume you based on your own limited understanding, the inquest for Ireland will need to be as invasive as Sweden.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » My point is that there will be huge political, financial and social pressure to create and deliver a vaccine. So, being slow or reluctant to take this vaccine is neither foolish nor anti science. I'm happy to be last in the queue to take it.Could also be that the vulnerable are not able to take this vaccine.
charlie14 wrote: » I`m afraid Fintan your ability to understand figures was shown to be limited when your own figures for over 65 deaths in the USA didn`t show what you believed they did. On a like for like basis we have little in common with Sweden, but if we did, statistically if you were over 65 in Ireland with lockdown you stood a much better chance of survival than you would have in Sweden. If we you compare the death rate in Sweden for all age groups to Ireland using the HSE figure, Sweden is 62% greater. If we take the HIQA figure the death rate is 2.4 times higher. And that is not even touching on a further 4,000 excess deaths in Sweden for the first 6 months of this year over and above their reported Covid-19 deaths.
charlie14 wrote: » But that is really the basic thinking with vaccines is it not. That they create a herd immunity for those unable to take a particular vaccine.
Bit cynical wrote: » Just on the age breakdown in Ireland and Sweden, This combines Covid-19 data from census population for each country. It is a little hard to interpret as the age brackets are different for Ireland and Sweden. However I plotted some of the data in Excel to produce: I left out the 85+ and 95+ brackets as these are of different sizes. Looking at the chart, there's not a lot of difference between Ireland and Sweden but it looks like between 70 and 80 you have a lower chance of death by Covid in Sweden than Ireland. Between 60 and 70, a slightly lower chance in Ireland. There's not a huge amount in the difference but I think we can say that Sweden was not worse in any significant way than Ireland in the treatment of its elderly. Both countries made similar mistakes and Sweden, at least, have admitted to this. There was someone on here saying he was glad he lived in Ireland because he was 70. But, in fact, it probably does not make a huge amount of difference. If we control for age, Ireland and Sweden have performed roughly the same. Sources: Ireland population (2016): CSO.ie Ireland deaths by age bracket: Epidemiology of COVID-19 in Ireland Sweden Population: SCB.se Sweden deaths by age: Statistica
charlie14 wrote: » On a like for like basis we have little in common with Sweden, but if we did, statistically if you were over 65 in Ireland with lockdown you stood a much better chance of survival than you would have in Sweden.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » I haven't had time to look into the previously mentioned figures. I tried to do so before but was hampered by the CSO only releasing numbers on those aged over 65. Also the Irish government had not released a detailed breakdown of deaths by age. I would assume that significantly more vulnerable people have been infected in Sweden than in Ireland. I would also have assumed that their death rate was therefore higher. The problem is that our vulnerable will remain vulnerable until there is herd immunity. Plus our approach is not sustainable economically or socially. Could you address that?
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » I would assume that significantly more vulnerable people have been infected in Sweden than in Ireland. I would also have assumed that their death rate was therefore higher.
charlie14 wrote: » With the death rate higher then it is only logical to assume that proportionately more of those vulnerable have died in Sweden than Ireland.
FintanMcluskey wrote: » Please read above. If a citizen is over 65 in Ireland they are no safer from Covid than a citizen in Sweden.
FintanMcluskey wrote: » Not the case
charlie14 wrote: » I don`t know what you believe that proves, but I have a feeling it`s not what you think it does. Over 65 deaths in Ireland 1,644. Over 65 deaths in Sweden 5,202. Do the maths and it is exactly the figure I gave you. 62% more deaths in Sweden of over 65`s than Ireland. If HIQA`s figures are correct the same applies. 2.4 times more deaths of over 65`s in Sweden than Ireland.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » I said the same above?? I've seen reports that the current vaccines under trial are difficult to take. The trials are on fit younger people only. That is true for other vaccines also. I recall having a bad reaction to a rabbies vaccine several years ago.
charlie14 wrote: » It is the case, and again the figures you provided yourself prove it.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » And since you're so keen on the science, have a read of this and tell me if you think it was science or politics?https://www.narcolepsy.org.uk/resources/pandemrix-narcolepsy During the Swine Flu epidemic of 2009/10 the vaccine Pandemrix was given to six million people in the UK, to high-risk groups, including children, with asthma, diabetes and heart disease. The vaccine had been approved by the European Medicines Agency for use across the EU, despite minimal clinical trials. The manufacturer, GlaxoSmithKline, was given an indemnity by the UK government. Some 850,000 vaccinations were given to children aged between 6 months and 16 years. Pandemrix caused narcolepsy The UK Health Protection Agency (now Public Health England) undertook a major study of 4- to 18-year-olds and found that around one in every 55,000 jabs led to narcolepsy.
FintanMcluskey wrote: » Charile you dont understand. Over 65s are no safer in Ireland than Sweden. Do you understand why that statement is correct?
charlie14 wrote: » Do you understand even the basic principle of mathematics ? Comparing Sweden`s over 65 deaths to Ireland on HSE figures, Sweden has 62% more deaths in that age group than Ireland All things being equal then if HIQA`s higher number of 1,200 overall is correct then deaths of over 65 are 2.4 times higher.
charlie14 wrote: » With the death rate higher then it is only logical to assume that proportionately more of those vulnerable have died in Sweden than Ireland. The problem with herd immunity for this virus is that there is no evidence of it being acquired naturally. Even for those already infected we do not know to what degree, if any, what the level is or for how long it lasts. For now the best protection for the vulnerable is to keep the numbers down and where there are outbreaks rapid test, trace and quarantine.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » What about the scenario I described. Any chance you could address that?
charlie14 wrote: » All age groups were safer in Ireland for the simple reason Sweden has to date 62% more deaths.
Bit cynical wrote: » Further to an earlier chart in this post, I wanted to see if one set of data stood out from the other when intermingled. Since the age brackets overlap for Sweden and Ireland we can combine them in one plot: Data points alternate between Ireland and Sweden. Looking at the chart, it is very hard to tell which data point is Ireland and which is Sweden; they fit together very well. There is just one point at age 55 (representing the 50 to 60 age bracket) which comes from Sweden. It is higher than it should be for a good fit but only just. [Edit: I think the point at age 75 (also Sweden) is slightly lower, again only just, for a good fit. This corresponds to the observation made in the earlier post, that at 75 or thereabouts you are slightly better off in Sweden.] The conclusion from this is that whatever age you are, you have pretty much the same chance of succumbing to Covid-19 whether you are in Ireland or Sweden, other things being equal.
FintanMcluskey wrote: » Ill try explain in a different way Sweden have a death rate of 0.21 % of the over 65 population Ireland have a death rate of 0.25% of the over 65 population
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » I would assume all age groups in Ireland are at less risk of dying from covid 19.
Boggles wrote: » That Sweden will get herd immunity naturally? Pretty sure they aren't even harping that folly anymore.
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » Ok, and what of a vaccine is not effective. What then? Or how long do we wait?
FintanMcluskey wrote: » Why do you think this?
Jessica Swift Bearded wrote: » Because the virus has been suppressed in Ireland using drastic and unsustainable methods. I'm sure if we continue lock down, there will also be much less death from flu. But I don't agree with this policy and I believe the Swedish approach is correct.
